The Miami Heat (33-15) take on the Philadelphia 76ers (31-19) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on NBATV at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, February 3, 2020.
Miami is a 3.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 213 points at PointsBet Sports Book.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction
The 76ers failed to cover as 2-point underdogs in their 116-95 loss to the Boston Celtics in their last contest. The combined points for the game (211) came in just over the projected point total of 210.5. Boston’s 9.3 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Philadelphia, who had a mark of 12.5. The Celtics’ mark was better than their season average of 11.7. Ben Simmons led Philadelphia in scoring with 23 points on 9-for-14 shooting.
In the Heat’s last game, they beat the Orlando Magic, 102-89, comfortably covering as 3.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (191) finished well under the projected point total of 216.5. The Heat knocked down 21 of their 26 free throws (80.8 percent) and held the Magic to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.6 (below their season average of 22.3). With 18 points and 14 rebounds, Meyers Leonard played well for Miami.
The Heat have won two out of three against the 76ers this season, escaping with a narrow 117-116 victory in their last matchup. Miami was unable to cover as a 2-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 233 points, which was 19.5 points above the projected point total of 213.5 points. Miami had a better turnover percentage (7.0 vs. 8.1). Philadelphia, meanwhile, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (18.6 vs. 17.0). Joel Embiid finished with 35 points and 11 rebounds.
Philadelphia has a respectable 31-19 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 22-25-3 against the spread (ATS). Of the 76ers’ 50 games, 25 have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 33-15 SU and 26-20-2 ATS. Vegas tends to set the total low when the Heat are involved, as 58.3 percent of their games have finished over the total.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams battle. Miami currently ranks 22nd in possessions per game (101.0) and Philadelphia is 25th (100.7).
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat Pick
Free Pick: ATS Winner – 76ers, O/U – Over
On the road, Philadelphia is 9-16-1 ATS with 13 overs, 12 unders and 1 push.
Miami is 15-8-1 ATS at home with 15 overs and 9 unders.
When allowing below 100 points, Philadelphia is 14-1 and Miami is 7-1.
The 76ers are 27-8 when they score more than 100 points, while the Heat are 32-10.
Philadelphia ranks first in three pointers allowed per game (28.4) while Miami ranks 28th (37.3).
The 76ers rank ninth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Heat rank 26th (4.3).
Philadelphia ranks ninth in fast break points per game (14.3) while Miami ranks 25th (10.6).
The 76ers rank 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.4) while the Heat rank 26th (18.2).
Philadelphia ranks second in assists allowed per game (22.0) while Miami ranks 17th (24.6).
The 76ers rank third in second chance points allowed per game (11.5) while the Heat rank 14th (12.7).
Philadelphia ranks 18th in points in the paint per game (47.6) while Miami ranks 26th (44.9).
The 76ers rank seventh in steals per game (8.3) while the Heat rank 14th in steals allowed per game (7.8).
Philadelphia leads the NBA with 41.6 rebounds allowed per game while Miami is second with 41.9 rebounds allowed per game.
Over its last five contests, Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The 76ers have been outscored by an average of 3.0 points in their last five games. On the season, Philadelphia has defeated opponents by an average of 3.0 points.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 113.4 points per game (1.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.2 points per game (0.3 above their season average).