The Miami Heat (31-14) will have their hands full against the league’s top scoring defense when they clash with the Orlando Magic (21-26) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on Fox SportsNet Florida at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 27, 2020.
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction
The Magic were not able to cover as 3-point favorites in their 112-97 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers in their last matchup. The total points for the game (209) finished under the projected point total of 212.5. Los Angeles’ 0.551 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Orlando, who had a mark of 0.395. The Clippers’ mark was above their season average of 0.527, while the Magic’s was below their season average of 0.493. Michael Carter-Williams led Orlando in scoring with 15 points on 6-for-11 shooting.
In the Heat’s previous game, they lost to the Los Angeles Clippers, 122-117. They failed to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (239) were well over the O/U total of 219. Los Angeles’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Miami. The Clippers had a rate of 23.4 (below their season average of 24.7), while the Heat posted a mark of 19.6. Jimmy Butler put together a good performance for Miami, leading the team in scoring with 20 points on 6-for-15 shooting.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Butler recorded 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in the first game, in which the Heat lost 105-85, unable to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 190 points, which was 16 points below the projected point total of 206 points. The Magic had a much better turnover percentage (9.6 vs. 16.6) and had a better free throw rate (0.321 vs. 0.225).
Orlando comes into the contest with records of 21-26 straight up (SU) and 21-21-4 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers are known to set the total high when the Magic are involved, as 56.5 percent of their games have ended under the total.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 31-14 SU and 24-19-2 ATS. Contrary to Orlando, Heat games have typically finished over the total (62.2 percent).
Miami does a great job at getting to the charity stripe. They rank first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.236), but Orlando is among the best in the league at keeping opponents off the line (ranking fourth by allowing a FTA rate of 0.168). The Magic should have an advantage in terms of ball security. They rank 3rd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent). Conversely, the Heat force the sixth-fewest turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 12.9 percent).
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat Pick
Free NBA Tip: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Orlando is 12-9-2 ATS on the road with 12 overs and 11 unders.
At home, Miami is 14-7-1 ATS with 15 overs and 7 unders.
Miami is 5-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Orlando is 12-4.
The Heat are 30-9 when they score more than 100 points, while the Magic are 17-10.
Orlando ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while Miami ranks 25th (18.5).
The Magic rank sixth in blocks per game (5.8) while the Heat rank 27th (4.1).
Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while Orlando ranks 21st (46.2).
The Magic rank fourth in steals per game (8.5) while the Heat rank 22nd (7.2).
Orlando ranks 12th in three pointers allowed per game (33.1) while Miami ranks 27th (37.4).
The Magic rank 17th in second chance points per game (12.7) while the Heat rank 26th (11.8).
Miami ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (11.9) while Orlando ranks seventh (12.0).
The Magic rank fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.0) while the Heat rank eighth (46.1).
Miami averages 25.2 assists per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Orlando ranks 11th in assists allowed per game (23.4).
In its last five games, Orlando is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Magic’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.6, up from 0.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 117.2 points per game (5.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.8 points per game (7.1 above their season average).