The San Antonio Spurs (14-18) take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (18-15) at the AT&T Center. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 2, 2020, and will air on Fox Sports – Southwest.
San Antonio opened as a 2-point favorite at PointsBet, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218.5 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Free Prediction
In the Thunder’s last contest, they beat the Dallas Mavericks, 106-101, as 2.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (207) came in under the projected point total of 217.5. The Thunder had a phenomenal offensive rebounding percentage of 36.0 (above their season average of 18.9) and had a free throw rate of 0.242 (above their season average of 0.230). Oklahoma City rallied around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished with 19 points and 10 rebounds.
The Spurs defeated the Golden State Warriors in their last matchup, 117-113, but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. The game’s combined points (230) were over the projected point total of 217. San Antonio’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Golden State. The Spurs had a rate of 22.2 (above their season average of 20.9), while the Warriors posted a mark of 17.3 (below their season average of 23.0). With 17 points and 12 rebounds, LaMarcus Aldridge played well for San Antonio.
There’s a decent chance that Oklahoma City struggles to create turnovers. San Antonio ranks sixth in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.7 percent), while Oklahoma City forces the 18th-most turnovers (13.6 percent). Also, the Thunder rank 30th in offensive rebounding percentage (19.5 percent), while the Spurs rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.0 percent).
Oklahoma City holds records of 18-15 straight up (SU) and 20-12-1 against the spread (ATS). Thunder games have a tendency to go under the total (60.6 percent).
Meanwhile, San Antonio owns records of 14-18 SU and 10-20-2 ATS. Contrary to Oklahoma City, Spurs games have typically finished over the total (59.4 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Gilgeous-Alexander (29 points,2.2 steals) has been great for the Thunder while Aldridge (23 points,8.4 rebounds,2.4 blocks) has contributed greatly to the Spurs.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Aldridge scored a game-high 39 points and the Spurs defeated the Thunder 121-112, covering as 4.5-point favorites. He also had six rebounds. The game finished with a total of 233 points, which was 21.5 points above the projected point total of 211.5 points. The Spurs had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.8 vs. 10.3) and had a better turnover percentage (11.6 vs. 12.6).
Thunder vs. Spurs Free Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Over
Oklahoma City ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (31.4) while San Antonio ranks 20th (34.1).
Oklahoma City ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.3) while San Antonio ranks sixth (4.5).
San Antonio is 5-13 ATS at home, while Oklahoma City is 10-5 ATS on the road.
In its last five games, Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS with 5 unders.
San Antonio is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 1.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 121.0 points per game (7.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.6 points per game (0.3 below their season average).