The New York Knicks (19-43) go head-to-head against the Oklahoma City Thunder (38-24) at Madison Square Garden. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 6, 2020, and will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.
Oklahoma City opened as a 7-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 219 points at William Hill Sportsbook.
Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks ATS Prediction
Although the Thunder topped the Detroit Pistons in their last game, 114-107, they failed to cover as 9-point favorites. The combined points for the game (221) were over the O/U total of 209. The Thunder knocked down 12 of their 17 free throws (70.6 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.680 (above their season average of 0.532). Oklahoma City was led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was the team’s leading scorer with 27 points on 12-for-15 shooting.
In the Knicks’ last outing, they fell to the Utah Jazz, 112-104, but did cover as 9-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (216) finished under the projected point total of 220. Utah made good use of their 25 trips to the charity stripe, converting on 20 of them (80.0 percent). New York, meanwhile, was 15-18 (83.3 percent). With 32 points on 12-for-21 shooting, Julius Randle was the top scorer from either team.
After the Thunder won both games against the Knicks last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent matchup, Oklahoma City won 127-109. Oklahoma City had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (28.6 vs. 22.0). New York, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (10.6 vs. 15.9).
Oklahoma City holds records of 38-24 straight up (SU) and 37-24-1 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Thunder’s games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, New York owns records of 19-43 SU and 32-28-2 ATS. Games including the Knicks also have gone under the projected point total 54.8 percent of the time.
Getting to the line might be rare for New York in this matchup. The Knicks rank 25th in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.179, while Oklahoma City ranks third in FTA rate allowed (0.164).
Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Knicks, O/U – Under
Oklahoma City is 21-8 ATS on the road with 16 unders and 13 overs.
New York is 16-14-1 ATS at home with 19 unders, 11 overs and 1 push.
New York and Oklahoma City are both 7-3 when they allow below 100 points.
When scoring above 100 points, the Knicks are 16-27 and the Thunder are 37-14.
New York ranks first in second chance points per game (15.3) while Oklahoma City ranks 29th (10.4).
The Knicks rank seventh in rebounds per game (46.6) while the Thunder rank 25th (42.8).
Oklahoma City ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while New York ranks 19th (5.1).
The Knicks rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.8) while the Thunder rank 17th (48.7).
Oklahoma City ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (10.4) while New York ranks 13th (13.0).
The Thunder rank first in steals allowed per game (6.7) while the Knicks rank 10th (7.2).
Oklahoma City ranks fifth in assists allowed per game (23.1) while New York ranks 13th (24.3).
The Thunder rank 16th in points off turnovers per game (16.8) while the Knicks rank 21st in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.6).
Neither of these teams shoot many threes. Oklahoma City is 27th in the league with 29.4 three pointers per game while New York is 28th with 28.7 threes per game.
Over its last five games, Oklahoma City is 0-5 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
New York is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Thunder have been outscored by an average of 9.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Oklahoma City has defeated opponents by an average of 2.1 points.
During their last five games, the Knicks have scored an average of 112.2 points per game (6.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.4 points per game (2.4 above their season average).