The Boston Celtics (42-20) go head-to-head with the Oklahoma City Thunder (39-24) at TD Garden. The game will air on NBATV at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 8, 2020.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics Betting Prediction
In the Thunder’s last outing, they easily covered the 5.5-point spread against the New York Knicks, 126-103. The game’s combined points (229) came in over the projected point total of 216.5. The Thunder had an extraordinarily low turnover percentage of 3.6 (better than their season average of 11.8) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.552 (above their season average of 0.535). Oklahoma City was led by Chris Paul, who put up 21 points and 12 assists.
The Celtics fell to the Utah Jazz in their last contest, 99-94, despite being 1.5-point favorites. The game’s combined points (193) finished well under the projected point total of 218.5. Utah’s 0.556 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Boston, who had a rate of 0.426. The Jazz’s mark was above their season average of 0.553, while the Celtics’ was below their season average of 0.531. With 29 points on 9-for-23 shooting, Marcus Smart was the game’s leading scorer.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Thunder lost 112-111 but covered as 1.5-point underdogs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 24 points and six rebounds. The game finished with a total of 223 points, which was just 4 points above the projected point total of 219 points. The Celtics had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.4 vs. 23.5) and had a better turnover percentage (8.6 vs. 9.2).
Oklahoma City comes into the game with records of 39-24 straight up (SU) and 38-24-1 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Thunder have gone under the total 50.8 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, Boston owns records of 42-20 SU and 37-24-1 ATS. Vegas has been spot on when setting the O/U total of Celtics games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Oklahoma City might have a difficult time creating turnovers. Boston ranks eighth in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.8 percent), while Oklahoma City forces the 19th-most turnovers (13.2 percent). Furthermore, the Thunder rank second in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.231), while the Celtics rank 22nd in opponents’ FTA rate (0.212).
Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics ATS Pick
NBA Prediction: ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Oklahoma City is 22-8 ATS on the road with 16 unders and 14 overs.
Boston is 17-14 ATS at home with 16 overs, 14 unders and 1 push.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Oklahoma City is 7-3 and Boston is 12-3.
The Celtics are 41-13 when they score over 100 points, while the Thunder are 38-14.
Boston ranks sixth in fast break points per game (15.4) while Oklahoma City ranks 29th (9.2).
The Thunder rank fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.1) while the Celtics rank 24th (5.5).
Boston ranks ninth in rebounds per game (46.0) while Oklahoma City ranks 25th (42.7).
The Celtics rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (43.3) while the Thunder rank 18th (49.0).
Boston ranks 13th in three pointers attempted per game (34.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 27th (29.4).
The Celtics rank 16th in second chance points per game (13.2) while the Thunder rank last (10.6).
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.7) while Boston ranks seventh (7.0).
The Celtics rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while the Thunder rank eighth (15.7).
Boston is second in the NBA with 22.3 assists allowed per game while Oklahoma City is fifth with 23.1 assists allowed per game.
Over its last five games, Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
Boston is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Thunder have been outscored by an average of 5.6 points in their last five games. For the season, Oklahoma City has defeated opponents by an average of 2.5 points.
During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 110.0 points per game (3.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (2.8 above their season average).