The Oklahoma City Thunder (37-22) put their five-game winning streak on the line when they meet the Milwaukee Bucks (50-8) at Fiserv Forum. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, February 28, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Milwaukee is a 10.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 229 points at BetMGM NJ & Indiana Sportsbook.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction
The Thunder will be looking for a similar result after topping the Sacramento Kings in their last contest, 112-108, as 11-point underdogs. The total points for the game (220) were just over the projected point total of 217.5. The Thunder knocked down 21 of their 29 free throws (72.4 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 8.5 (better than their season average of 11.8). Oklahoma City received a boost from Danilo Gallinari, who was the top scorer from either team with 24 points on 8-for-17 shooting.
In the Bucks’ previous outing, they beat the Toronto Raptors, 108-97, despite being 1-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (205) finished well under the projected point total of 232. The Bucks made 30 of their 36 free throws (83.3 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (11.5 vs. 13.8). With 19 points, 19 rebounds and eight assists, Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo had a good outing.
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 35 points in the first game, in which the Bucks topped the Thunder 121-119 but were unable to cover as 9-point favorites. He also put up 16 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 240 points, which was 20.5 points above the projected point total of 219.5 points. The Bucks made 16 of their 18 free throws (88.9 percent) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (14.3 vs. 10.4).
Oklahoma City heads into the game with records of 37-22 straight up (SU) and 37-20-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Thunder games, with 30 unders compared to 28 overs.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee owns records of 50-8 SU and 34-24 ATS. Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Bucks games, with an even split between overs and unders.
It will be a showdown of conflicting styles as the fast-paced Bucks (ranked second in the NBA in possessions per game) will look to push the more half-court-oriented Thunder (25th in possessions per game). Furthermore, put-back points could be tough to come by for the Thunder. They rank 30th in the league in offensive rebounding percentage at 19.7 percent, while the Bucks are the best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 81.5 percent).
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Over
On the road, Oklahoma City is 21-6 ATS with 15 unders and 12 overs.
Milwaukee is 17-12 ATS at home with 15 overs and 14 unders.
In games where they allow below 100 points, Milwaukee is 14-0 and Oklahoma City is 7-3.
The Thunder are 36-14 when they reach the century mark, while the Bucks are 50-8.
Milwaukee ranks third in fast break points per game (18.8) while Oklahoma City ranks last (9.1).
The Bucks rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (38.4) while the Thunder rank 27th (29.4).
Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (51.8) while Oklahoma City ranks 22nd (43.1).
The Bucks rank fifth in assists per game (26.2) while the Thunder rank 25th (22.1).
Milwaukee ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (50.2) while Oklahoma City ranks 22nd (46.8).
The Bucks rank second in blocks per game (6.3) while the Thunder rank 15th (4.9).
Milwaukee ranks first in second chance points allowed per game (11.4) while Oklahoma City ranks 14th (12.7).
The Thunder rank second in steals allowed per game (6.7) while the Bucks rank 12th (7.3).
In its last five outings, Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Milwaukee is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.2, up from 3.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 120.2 points per game (0.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.6 points per game (3.0 above their season average).