The Oklahoma City Thunder (11-13) will have their hands full against the league’s top scoring defense when they take on the Denver Nuggets (15-8) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 14, 2019, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver opened as a 7-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 205 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
In the Thunder’s last outing, they were topped by the Sacramento Kings, 94-93, but they were able to cover as 2-point underdogs. The total points for the game (187) finished well under the O/U total of 207. Sacramento’s 14.0 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Oklahoma City, who had a mark of 14.7. The Kings’ mark was worse than their season average of 13.1. Steven Adams had a solid outing for Oklahoma City, recording 12 points and 10 rebounds.
The Nuggets beat the Portland Trail Blazers in their last outing, 114-99, covering as 8-point favorites. The combined points for the game (213) finished under the O/U total of 216.5. The Nuggets, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.0, had a ridiculous mark of 34.9, while the Trail Blazers had a free throw rate of 0.093 (below their season average of 0.196). With 20 points, 11 rebounds and six assists, Denver’s Nikola Jokic played well.
After the Nuggets won all four contests against the Thunder last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last matchup, Denver won 115-105. Denver’s effective field goal percentage was its biggest advantage over Oklahoma City. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.647 while the Thunder posted a mark of 0.534.
Oklahoma City heads into the contest with records of 11-13 straight up (SU) and 15-8-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Thunder are involved, as 15 of their 24 games have gone under the projected point total.
Denver has a solid 15-8 SU record, but they are just 9-11-3 ATS. Nuggets games also have a tendency to finish under the total (78.3 percent).
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams clash. Denver ranks 24th in possessions per game (101.0) and Oklahoma City is 25th (100.5).
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
On the road, Oklahoma City is 8-4 ATS with 8 unders and 4 overs.
At home, Denver is 5-6-1 ATS with 10 unders and 2 overs.
Denver is 10-1 when they allow below 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 5-3.
The Thunder are 11-7 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 13-4.
Denver ranks 19th in second chance points per game (12.5) while Oklahoma City ranks 29th (10.1).
The Thunder rank third in assists allowed per game (21.9) while the Nuggets rank 12th (23.8).
Oklahoma City ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (30.7) while Denver ranks 11th (33.0).
The Thunder rank fourth in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while the Nuggets rank 11th (12.8).
Denver ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.3) while Oklahoma City ranks seventh (15.8).
The Nuggets rank 10th in rebounds per game (46.0) while the Thunder rank 12th in rebounds allowed per game (45.4).
In its last five games, Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 2-2-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.0, up from 0.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 106.4 points per game (0.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 100.2 points per game (1.4 below their season average).