The Sacramento Kings (28-36) meet the New Orleans Pelicans (28-36) at the Golden 1 Center. The game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 11, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
New Orleans is a 1.5-point favorite on the opening line from Draftkings, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 235 points.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings Free Prediction
The Pelicans come in on a high note after covering the 7-point spread against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last contest, 120-107. The game’s combined points (227) were well under the projected point total of 249. New Orleans’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Minnesota. The Pelicans had a rate of 23.3 (below their season average of 24.3), while the Timberwolves posted a mark of 17.0 (below their season average of 22.2). With 37 points on 13-for-20 shooting, Jrue Holiday was the game’s high scorer.
In the Kings’ previous outing, they were beaten by the Toronto Raptors, 118-113. The game’s combined points (231) finished over the projected point total of 225.5. Toronto’s effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Sacramento. The Raptors had a rate of 0.591 (above their season average of 0.535), while the Kings posted a mark of 0.511. De’Aaron Fox put together a solid game for Sacramento, leading the team in scoring with 28 points on 8-for-16 shooting.
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, Ball had 24 points, 10 assists and six rebounds and the Pelicans defeated the Kings 117-115, covering as 2.5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 232 points, which was just 4 points above the projected point total of 228 points. The Pelicans’ 12.9 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Kings, who had a mark of 16.6.
New Orleans holds records of 28-36 straight up (SU) and 31-29-4 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Pelicans have a slight tendency to go over the total (54.7 percent).
Meanwhile, Sacramento is 28-36 SU and 33-30-1 ATS. Kings games also have a slight tendency to finish over the projected point total (53.1 percent).
It will be a showdown of conflicting tempos as the up-tempo Pelicans (ranked second in the NBA in possessions per game) will look to push the slower-paced Kings (22nd in possessions per game).
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings Odds Pick
Free Prediction: ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
New Orleans is 16-12-4 ATS on the road with 18 overs and 14 unders.
At home, Sacramento is 12-18-1 ATS with 17 overs and 14 unders.
Sacramento is 10-2 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while New Orleans is 3-0.
The Kings are 26-29 when they reach the century mark, while the Pelicans are 28-33.
New Orleans ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.0) while Sacramento ranks 27th (42.5).
The Kings rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.7) while the Pelicans rank 24th (13.6).
Sacramento ranks eighth in fast break points allowed per game (12.6) while New Orleans ranks 27th (15.9).
The Pelicans rank third in assists per game (27.0) while the Kings rank 22nd (23.4).
Sacramento ranks 10th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.3) while New Orleans ranks 28th (19.3).
The Kings rank 10th in points allowed in the paint per game (46.4) while the Pelicans rank 27th (53.0).
New Orleans ranks 12th in blocks per game (5.1) while Sacramento ranks 25th (4.2).
The Kings rank 15th in steals per game (7.6) while the Pelicans rank 27th in steals allowed per game (8.6).
New Orleans averages 37.6 three pointers per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Sacramento ranks 18th in three pointers allowed per game (34.6).
In its last five contests, New Orleans is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Sacramento is 2-2-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Pelicans have outscored opponents by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. On the season, New Orleans has been defeated by an average of 0.8 points.
During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 116.6 points per game (7.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 116.0 points per game (5.1 above their season average).