The Portland Trail Blazers (25-31) welcome the New Orleans Pelicans (23-32) to Moda Center at the Rose Quarter as they attempt to continue their five-game home winning streak. The game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, February 21, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
New Orleans is a 3-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 235.5 points on the William Hill New Jersey Sports Betting App.
New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers ATS Prediction
The Pelicans failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites in their 123-118 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game. The total points for the game (241) came in over the O/U total of 233.5. Oklahoma City’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over New Orleans. The Thunder had a rate of 6.4 (better than their season average of 11.9), while the Pelicans posted a mark of 14.8. Zion Williamson was the game’s high scorer with 32 points on 11-for-19 shooting.
In the Trail Blazers’ last game, they were beaten by the Memphis Grizzlies, 111-104. They failed to cover as 3.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (215) were well under the O/U total of 234.5. Memphis’ effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Portland. The Grizzlies had a rate of 0.505 (below their season average of 0.533), while the Trail Blazers posted a mark of 0.438 (below their season average of 0.526). Portland’s Damian Lillard contributed 20 points, 10 assists and five rebounds in the game.
Portland should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Portland ranks third in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.1 percent), while New Orleans forces the sixth-fewest turnovers (12.8 percent).
New Orleans comes into the game with records of 23-32 straight up (SU) and 26-25-4 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total low when the Pelicans are playing, as 58.2 percent of their games have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Portland is 25-31 SU and 23-31-2 ATS. Of the Trail Blazers’ 56 games, 30 have finished over the total.
The Pelicans have won all three games against the Trail Blazers this season, including a 21-point blowout in their last matchup. New Orleans covered as a 3-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 255 points, which was 15 points above the projected point total of 240 points. The Pelicans had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (33.3 vs. 25.0) and had a better free throw rate (0.283 vs. 0.237). Williamson was the game’s top overall scorer with 31 points.
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers ATS Pick
Free Prediction: ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Over
New Orleans is 12-11-4 ATS on the road with 16 overs and 11 unders.
At home, Portland is 11-14-1 ATS with 16 overs and 10 unders.
When holding opponents under 100 points, New Orleans is 3-0 and Portland is 4-0.
The Pelicans are 23-29 when they reach 100 points, while the Trail Blazers are 25-24.
Portland ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while New Orleans ranks 28th (19.2).
The Pelicans rank fifth in assists per game (26.3) while the Trail Blazers rank last (20.0).
Portland ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (6.9) while New Orleans ranks 28th (8.4).
The Pelicans rank fifth in rebounds per game (46.6) while the Trail Blazers rank 28th in rebounds allowed per game (48.1).
New Orleans averages 14.1 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Portland ranks 28th in second chance points allowed per game (15.8).
The Pelicans rank fifth in fast break points per game (16.5) while the Trail Blazers rank 24th in fast break points allowed per game (14.8).
New Orleans ranks fifth in three pointers attempted per game (38.1) while Portland ranks 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (35.0).
The Pelicans rank 14th in points in the paint per game (48.2) while the Trail Blazers rank 28th (44.0).
New Orleans averages 5.3 blocks per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Portland ranks 19th in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
In its last five outings, New Orleans is 2-2-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Portland is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Pelicans have outscored opponents by an average of 3.4 points in their last five games. For the season, New Orleans has been defeated by an average of 1.5 points.
During their last five games, the Trail Blazers have scored an average of 115.0 points per game (1.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 118.4 points per game (3.1 above their season average).