The Phoenix Suns (7-6) go head-to-head with the New Orleans Pelicans (5-9) at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The game gets underway at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 21, 2019.
Phoenix opened as a 6-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 233 points.
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Free Prediction
In the Pelicans’ last matchup, they easily covered the 3-point spread against the Portland Trail Blazers, 115-104. The game’s combined points (219) were under the projected point total of 231.5. The Pelicans made 20 of their 24 free throws (83.3 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 11.2 (better than their season average of 14.3). New Orleans was lifted by Jrue Holiday, who was the game’s high scorer with 22 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
The Suns were beaten by the Sacramento Kings in their last game, 120-116. They were unable to cover as 3-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (236) finished well over the O/U total of 219.5. Sacramento’s effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Phoenix. The Kings had a rate of 0.614 (above their season average of 0.519), while the Suns posted a mark of 0.494 (below their season average of 0.546). With 30 points on 10-for-20 shooting, Devin Booker led Phoenix in scoring.
After splitting four games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last game, the Suns won 133-126. The Suns’ turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Pelicans. Phoenix had a rate of 5.8, while New Orleans posted a mark of 11.7.
New Orleans holds records of 5-9 straight up (SU) and 6-8 against the spread (ATS). There does not appear to be a trend for Pelicans games in regards to the projected point total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Meanwhile, Phoenix is 7-6 SU and 9-4 ATS. Of the Suns’ 13 games, 7 have finished over the projected point total.
When looking at effective field goal percentage, Phoenix figures to have a noteworthy advantage. The sweet-shooting Suns offense ranks fifth in the NBA in that metric at 0.542, while the porous New Orleans defense is ranked 24th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.541). Furthermore, the Pelicans rank 25th in turnover percentage (15.6 percent), while the Suns rank third in opponents’ turnover percentage (16.5 percent).
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Odds Pick
NBA Tip: ATS Winner – Pelicans
On the road, New Orleans is 2-4 ATS with 3 overs and 3 unders.
At home, Phoenix is 6-3 ATS with 6 overs and 3 unders.
In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Phoenix is 1-2.
When scoring over 100 points, the Suns are 7-4 and the Pelicans are 5-8.
Phoenix averages 21.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the league. New Orleans ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (21.1).
The Suns average 48.8 points in the paint per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Pelicans rank 29th in points allowed in the paint per game (53.0).
Phoenix ranks fifth in fast break points per game (15.6) while New Orleans ranks 26th in fast break points allowed per game (18.8).
The Suns rank second in assists per game (27.9) while the Pelicans rank 23rd in assists allowed per game (25.1).
New Orleans ranks eighth in second chance points per game (13.9) while Phoenix ranks 25th (10.5).
The Suns rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (30.3) while the Pelicans rank 20th (34.6).
New Orleans ranks fifth in steals per game (8.9) while Phoenix ranks 19th in steals allowed per game (8.2).
The Pelicans rank 14th in rebounds per game (45.9) while the Suns rank 25th (42.2).
New Orleans ranks 18th in blocks per game (4.8) while Phoenix ranks 26th (4.1).
In its last five contests, New Orleans is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Pelicans have outscored opponents by an average of 0.6 points in their last five games. On the season, New Orleans has lost by an average of 3.2 points.
During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 116.4 points per game (1.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.2 points per game (2.8 above their season average).