The New Orleans Pelicans (6-18) and the Milwaukee Bucks (21-3), who both like to play up-tempo, will go head-to-head at Fiserv Forum. The game starts at 9:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 11, 2019, and will air on ESPN.
Milwaukee opened as a 13.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 234 points.
New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks Free Prediction
The Pelicans are hoping for a better outcome after failing to cover as 1-point underdogs in their 105-103 loss to the Detroit Pistons in their last outing. The combined points for the game (208) came in well under the O/U total of 227. Detroit made good use of their 27 trips to the free throw line, converting on 22 of them (81.5 percent). New Orleans, meanwhile, was just 15-22 (68.2 percent). Brandon Ingram was the top scorer from either team with 31 points on 11-for-21 shooting.
In the Bucks’ last game, they defeated the Orlando Magic, 110-101, but were not able to cover as 13-point favorites. The game’s total points (211) were under the O/U total of 217.5. Milwaukee’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Orlando. The Bucks had a rate of 22.2 (above their season average of 22.0), while the Magic posted a mark of 17.0 (below their season average of 23.2). Giannis Antetokounmpo was the game’s top scorer with 32 points on 12-for-22 shooting from the field.
The productive offense of Milwaukee (second in the league with an offensive efficiency of 112.8) will clash against the bottom-tier defense of New Orleans (26th in the league with a defensive efficiency of 111.9). The Bucks figure to have the advantage on that end of the court. Also, the Pelicans, who rank 21st in offensive rebounding percentage (22.1 percent), might have a tough time getting second chance points against the Bucks, who rank second in defensive rebounding percentage (80.7 percent).
New Orleans holds records of 6-18 straight up (SU) and 8-15-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Pelicans games, with 13 unders compared to 11 overs.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee owns records of 21-3 SU and 12-12 ATS. Vegas is highly accurate when predicting totals of Bucks games, with an even split between overs and unders.
After the Bucks won both games against the Pelicans last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last game, Milwaukee won 130-113. The Bucks made 24 of their 28 free throws (85.7 percent) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.546 vs. 0.477).
Pelicans at Bucks Odds Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
New Orleans is 3-7-1 ATS on the road with 6 overs and 5 unders.
Milwaukee is 6-6 ATS at home with 6 overs and 6 unders.
In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Milwaukee is 6-0.
The Bucks are 21-3 when they score above 100 points, while the Pelicans are 6-15.
Milwaukee ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (39.8) while New Orleans ranks 27th (52.1).
The Bucks rank first in second chance points allowed per game (10.3) while the Pelicans rank 26th (14.8).
Milwaukee ranks second in fast break points per game (18.6) while New Orleans ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (15.4).
The Pelicans average 39.0 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Bucks rank 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.9).
Milwaukee averages 51.9 rebounds per game, which ranks first in the league. New Orleans ranks 24th in rebounds allowed per game (46.8).
The Bucks rank fifth in points off turnovers per game (19.0) while the Pelicans rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.5).
Milwaukee ranks seventh in assists per game (25.9) while New Orleans ranks 22nd in assists allowed per game (25.0).
The Bucks rank second in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Pelicans rank 14th (7.8).
Milwaukee ranks fifth in blocks per game (6.1) while New Orleans ranks 17th (4.8).
Over its last five games, New Orleans is 0-5 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Pelicans’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 15.8, up from 6.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 125.0 points per game (4.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 95.8 points per game (11.4 below their season average).