NBA Most Improved Player Odds, Preview & Prediction (2019–20)
Updated November 6, 2026
Updated November 6, 2026
The NBA Most Improved Player award is one of the more interesting futures markets to analyze ahead of a new season. Unlike MVP, where established superstars usually dominate the conversation, Most Improved Player often rewards someone who takes a significant leap in production and responsibility. With the 2019–20 NBA season approaching, we're looking at the leading candidates, their preseason odds, and five players who could break out.
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The challenge with predicting Most Improved Player is that talent alone isn't enough.
A player might have the ability to average 20 points per game but never get the opportunity because of his team's rotation, established stars, or offensive system.
Changes in playing time, roster construction, and offensive responsibility can be just as important as individual development.
That makes the 2019–20 race particularly interesting, with several young players entering the season in substantially different situations.
Jayson Tatum enters the season as the betting favorite at +900, followed by Dejounte Murray, John Collins, and Malcolm Brogdon at +1100.
Terry Rozier is available at +1400, while Bam Adebayo and Domantas Sabonis are priced at +1600.
Here are the original preseason odds:
Player | Odds |
|---|---|
Jayson Tatum | +900 |
Dejounte Murray | +1100 |
John Collins | +1100 |
Malcolm Brogdon | +1100 |
Terry Rozier | +1400 |
Bam Adebayo | +1600 |
Domantas Sabonis | +1600 |
Luka Doncic | +1700 |
Marvin Bagley | +1700 |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +2000 |
Trae Young | +2000 |
Jonathan Isaac | +2000 |
Brandon Ingram | +2000 |
Caris LeVert | +2000 |
Derrick White | +2000 |
De'Aaron Fox | +2500 |
Jaylen Brown | +2500 |
Lauri Markkanen | +2500 |
Thomas Bryant | +3000 |
Lonzo Ball | +3000 |
Delon Wright | +3000 |
Miles Bridges | +3300 |
Dennis Smith Jr. | +3300 |
Jamal Murray | +3300 |
Jaren Jackson Jr. | +3300 |
Markelle Fultz | +3300 |
Kevon Looney | +3500 |
Jonas Valanciunas | +4000 |
Julius Randle | +4000 |
Kelly Oubre Jr. | +4000 |
Norman Powell | +4000 |
Aaron Gordon | +4000 |
Mitchell Robinson | +4000 |
OG Anunoby | +5000 |
Steven Adams | +5000 |
Cedi Osman | +6600 |
Deandre Ayton | +6600 |
Isaiah Thomas | +6600 |
Montrezl Harrell | +6600 |
Tyus Jones | +6600 |
Zach Collins | +6600 |
Jarrett Allen | +10000 |
Derrick Rose | +10000 |
Historical preseason futures odds published September 30, 2019. These prices are retained for reference and are not current betting lines.
The odds reflect a wide-open race.
Tatum is the favorite, but several players have a realistic opportunity to increase their production significantly.
Rozier, Adebayo, and LeVert are particularly interesting because their roles could change substantially compared with the previous season.
Looking at recent winners provides useful context for evaluating the 2019–20 candidates.
Season | Winner | Team |
|---|---|---|
2018–19 | Pascal Siakam | Toronto Raptors |
2017–18 | Victor Oladipo | Indiana Pacers |
2016–17 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks |
2015–16 | CJ McCollum | Portland Trail Blazers |
2014–15 | Jimmy Butler | Chicago Bulls |
Each winner experienced a meaningful increase in production, responsibility, or both.
CJ McCollum is a particularly useful example.
After Portland lost LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, and Wesley Matthews, McCollum received a much larger offensive role.
His scoring average increased dramatically, and he established himself as a key part of the Trail Blazers' offense.
Giannis Antetokounmpo followed a different path.
His improvement came through continued development into one of the league's most versatile players. By the 2018–19 season, he had already won the MVP award.
Pascal Siakam is another interesting case because his breakout season came while playing for the eventual NBA champions.
His development helped Toronto win its first championship alongside Kawhi Leonard.
These examples demonstrate that there isn't one specific formula for winning Most Improved Player.
However, increased minutes, offensive responsibility, and noticeable statistical growth are recurring themes.
When evaluating this award, three factors deserve particular attention.
More minutes generally create more opportunities to score, rebound, and assist.
A talented reserve moving into a starting role can experience a significant statistical jump without necessarily becoming a dramatically different player.
Changes in teammates can transform a player's responsibilities.
When an established scorer leaves, someone else must take those shots.
That creates opportunities for younger players who previously operated in supporting roles.
Most Improved Player voters typically look for substantial progress.
An increase of six to ten points per game can make a strong impression, particularly when accompanied by better playmaking, rebounding, or defensive production.
With those factors in mind, here are our five leading candidates for the 2019–20 season.
<text weight="medium">2018–19 averages: 8.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.8 BPG | 57.6% FG</text>
Bam Adebayo enters his third NBA season with an excellent opportunity to become a much more important part of Miami's offense.
The biggest development is Hassan Whiteside's departure.
Whiteside previously occupied a significant portion of the available minutes at center, but his move to Portland creates an opportunity for Adebayo to become Miami's primary option at the position.
Adebayo has already shown promising defensive versatility, efficient finishing, and the ability to contribute as a passer.
More playing time should help his counting statistics improve across several categories.
The arrival of Jimmy Butler is another interesting factor.
Butler will command plenty of offensive attention, but he could also create easier scoring opportunities for Adebayo.
If the young center becomes a consistent double-double threat while maintaining his defensive impact, he'll have a strong case for Most Improved Player.
Our assessment: Adebayo has a clear path to increased minutes and responsibility. His versatility makes him one of the more appealing candidates at +1600.
<text weight="medium">2018–19 averages: 13.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.4 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG | 46.5% FG</text>
Jaylen Brown is coming off a disappointing statistical season, but that doesn't necessarily mean his development has stalled.
Boston's 2018–19 campaign was complicated by changing rotations, inconsistent chemistry, and the return of Gordon Hayward.
Brown's minutes and offensive opportunities declined compared with the previous season.
The departure of Kyrie Irving could help change that.
Boston's younger players now have an opportunity to take on greater responsibility, and Brown has already demonstrated that he can perform well in an expanded role.
His athleticism, defensive ability, and scoring potential make him an interesting candidate.
However, Brown isn't the only Celtic positioned for a bigger season.
Jayson Tatum enters as the Most Improved Player betting favorite, and Boston's offensive opportunities will need to be shared among several players.
That makes Brown a slightly more complicated selection.
Our assessment: Brown has the talent to outperform his previous season, but competition for touches could limit the size of his statistical improvement.
<text weight="medium">2018–19 averages: 13.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.4 BPG | 42.9% FG</text>
Caris LeVert looked ready for a breakout season before an injury interrupted his progress.
He opened the 2018–19 campaign in excellent form, averaging 18.9 points in October and 17.7 in November.
His efficiency during that stretch was encouraging, and he appeared increasingly comfortable creating his own offense.
Unfortunately, a significant leg injury forced him to miss an extended period.
LeVert returned in February and gradually worked his way back into form.
By April, he was averaging 15.8 points on 50.9% shooting across five games.
The question entering 2019–20 is how much responsibility he'll receive in Brooklyn's new-look offense.
Kyrie Irving has joined the Nets and will command a substantial share of the team's possessions.
That could reduce LeVert's opportunities, even if he returns to full health.
On the other hand, playing alongside Irving may create better scoring chances and allow LeVert to attack defenses without carrying the entire offensive burden.
Our assessment: LeVert has genuine breakout potential at +2000. His biggest obstacle may be finding enough opportunities alongside Irving.
<text weight="medium">2018–19 averages: 13.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.4 BPG | 50.6% FG</text>
Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the more intriguing young big men in the NBA.
His combination of size, shooting ability, and defensive instincts gives him the potential to become a major contributor at both ends of the floor.
Jackson's rookie season was promising, although an injury prevented him from playing after the All-Star break.
He now enters his second season with an opportunity to take another significant step.
Memphis is also beginning a new chapter following major roster changes.
The arrival of Ja Morant, the second overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, should benefit Jackson in several ways.
Morant's playmaking ability could create open looks for Jackson, particularly in pick-and-roll and transition situations.
However, Morant will also attract significant attention as the team's new point guard.
Jackson may need to share the spotlight rather than become the clear centerpiece of the offense.
That uncertainty helps explain why his odds are relatively long at +3300.
Our assessment: Jackson has the talent to make a substantial leap, and his price offers an interesting opportunity. His offensive development will be critical to his chances.
<text weight="medium">2018–19 averages: 9.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.3 BPG | 38.7% FG</text>
Terry Rozier is our top choice for the 2019–20 Most Improved Player award.
His situation has changed more dramatically than almost any other serious candidate.
Rozier spent the previous season in Boston, where Kyrie Irving's presence limited his minutes and opportunities.
That was a significant change compared with the end of the 2017–18 season, when Rozier stepped into a starting role and produced impressive numbers.
Across 15 starts during that regular season, he averaged 15.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.2 steals in 33.6 minutes.
Those performances demonstrated what Rozier could accomplish with consistent playing time.
Now he has an opportunity to prove himself as Charlotte's starting point guard.
The Hornets enter the season without Kemba Walker, who departed for Boston.
That leaves a substantial offensive void.
Rozier is expected to take on a much larger role, both as a scorer and primary ball handler.
Charlotte doesn't have an established high-volume scorer who will automatically dominate the team's possessions.
Players such as Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller can contribute, but Rozier should have considerable freedom to create his own offense.
He could realistically attempt 15 to 18 shots per game.
That would represent a major increase in opportunity compared with his final season in Boston.
The biggest concern is shooting efficiency.
Rozier made just 38.7% of his field-goal attempts during the 2018–19 season.
An expanded offensive role won't automatically make him a more efficient scorer.
However, the Most Improved Player award often rewards substantial increases in production.
If Rozier approaches 18 points and six assists per game, his statistical improvement would be difficult to ignore.
He also has the advantage of being a recognizable player entering a completely new situation.
Our assessment: Rozier offers the clearest combination of increased minutes, offensive responsibility, and realistic statistical growth among our five candidates.
Our five leading candidates are:
Rank | Player | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
1 | Terry Rozier | +1400 |
2 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | +3300 |
3 | Caris LeVert | +2000 |
4 | Jaylen Brown | +2500 |
5 | Bam Adebayo | +1600 |
Each player has a legitimate path to improvement.
Adebayo should benefit from Whiteside's departure, while Brown has an opportunity to take on more responsibility in Boston.
LeVert could enjoy a healthy breakout season, and Jackson has the potential to become one of the league's most productive young big men.
Rozier, however, stands out because his circumstances have changed so significantly.
He moves into a starting role with a Charlotte team that needs someone to replace Kemba Walker's offensive production.
→ Our Take: Terry Rozier is our selection to win the 2019–20 NBA Most Improved Player award at +1400. His new role in Charlotte should provide the minutes, shot attempts, and ball-handling opportunities he couldn't consistently receive in Boston. We're projecting approximately 18 points and just under six assists per game, which would represent a substantial improvement over his 2018–19 production.
Official ATS.io Prediction: Terry Rozier to Win Most Improved Player (+1400)
This is the original preseason prediction published September 30, 2019. All odds and projections reflect expectations entering the 2019–20 season.
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Jayson Tatum entered the season as the betting favorite at +900 according to the original odds published by ATS.io on September 30, 2019.
Rozier was listed at +1400 before the 2019–20 season.
ATS.io's original preseason prediction was Terry Rozier at +1400.
Rozier moved into a starting role with the Charlotte Hornets after spending the previous season behind Kyrie Irving in Boston. The expectation was that increased playing time and offensive responsibility would produce a substantial statistical improvement.
Pascal Siakam of the Toronto Raptors won the award after a breakout season that also ended with an NBA championship.
Playing time, offensive responsibility, statistical improvement, team circumstances, and individual development all influence the award race.
Updated November 6, 2026
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