Fans of the Golden State Warriors were hit with conflicting emotions Monday night. Their team won an incredible game and kept their slim hopes of a three-peat alive. But the Warriors also lost the services of superstar Kevin Durant to an Achilles injury early in the second quarter.

However, that also means they won the game largely without Durant’s help—which should give fans hope that their team can do it again Thursday night in Game Six. Oddsmakers seem to have some faith in the Warriors getting it done on their home floor despite losing both earlier games in Oakland

Odds for Game Six, according to BetOnline.ag, are as follows:

  • Spread: Warriors by 3
  • Money Line: Warriors -146; Raptors +126 (opened at Warriors -167; Raptors +143)
  • Over/Under: 211

The line is set according to how the oddsmakers see the game going, but then it moves according to how people are betting on the game. So, while there is support for the Warriors, there are also many who think the Raptors are going to make it happen. However, with how they played Monday night, are they a good bet?

Toronto knows they blew a great opportunity:

“We had a chance to win a championship tonight, and we didn’t do it,” Raptors guard Fred VanVleet said after the Game Five, via ESPN. “We didn’t play well enough; we didn’t execute enough down the stretch, and that stings a little bit.”

But the Warriors, as usual, are not lacking for confidence either:

“We understand the moment, and I think we can rally, considering how the second half went tonight,” Steph Curry said following Game Five.

So, you have one team trying to keep it real (Toronto) and the other that is confident they can win (Golden State).  What earns you money—keeping it real or confidence?

Before making that decision, it is worth taking a look at how bad the Raptors played Monday night. Kawhi Leonard was just 9-24 from the floor and 2-9 from three-point range. He had five of Toronto’s 13 turnovers. As a team, the Raptors shot only 25 percent from three-point range (8-32).

Golden State’s defense wasn’t the reason why. According to the stats at NBA.com, the Raptors made only three of 18 wide open shots (nearest defender was 6+ feet away).

On a night when the Warriors hit an astonishing 47.6 percent of their three-pointers (20-42), the Raptors lost by only a point. While any shot would have done the trick, a case can definitely be made that it is because they couldn’t make a three.

Does this mean the Raptors are a virtual lock to win Game Six and the series Thursday night? Of course not. If Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are able to heat up, the Warriors can win on any given night. But going 19-44 from the floor does not count as ‘heating up.’

Yes, going 12-27 from three-point range is nice. But with the rest of the team not scoring a ton, 57 points from the Splash Brothers will not be enough on a night when the Raptors make their shots.

Golden State didn’t win Monday night; Toronto lost. But the Raptors will not shoot that poorly Thursday night. Take Toronto to win, straight up and against the spread. As for the over/under, they have combined to score more than 211 points most nights.

Take the over.

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