The Minnesota Timberwolves (16-38) will attempt to put an end to their seven-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Denver Nuggets (38-18) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 23, 2020, and will air on NBATV.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 225.5 points with Denver set as a 12.5-point favorite at Pointsbet On the Iowa Sports Betting App.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
In the Timberwolves’ last outing, they were beaten by the Boston Celtics, 127-117, and failed to cover as 8.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (244) were well over the O/U total of 225.5. Boston out-rebounded Minnesota. The Celtics had 16 offensive rebounds and 58 total rebounds, while the Timberwolves had eight and 43, respectively. Minnesota’s D’Angelo Russell had a solid outing, putting up 18 points, 13 assists and six rebounds.
The Nuggets lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last contest, 113-101. They were unable to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (214) were just under the O/U total of 216. Oklahoma City’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Denver. The Thunder posted a mark of 10.8 (better than their season average of 11.8), while the Nuggets had a rate of 17.9 (above their season average of 11.3). With 32 points on 12-for-15 shooting, Nikola Jokic was the top scorer from either team.
The Nuggets have won all three contests against the Timberwolves this season, including a 107-100 victory in their last matchup. Denver covered as a 4-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 207 points, which was 14 points below the projected point total of 221 points. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.5 vs. 21.6). Minnesota, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (8.5 vs. 12.0). Karl-Anthony Towns was the top overall scorer in the game with 28 points.
Minnesota holds records of 16-38 straight up (SU) and 18-34-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Timberwolves’ 54 games, 30 have finished over the O/U total.
Denver has a respectable 38-18 SU record, but they are just 25-25-6 ATS. Unlike Minnesota, Nuggets games have a tendency to go under the projected point total (55.4 percent).
The offensive glass should be a solid edge for Denver in this meeting. The Nuggets rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (24.9 percent), while Minnesota ranks 19th in defensive rebounding percentage (77.0 percent). Contrasting styles will be on display in this contest. The fast-breaking Timberwolves rank second in possessions per game, while the more methodical Nuggets rank 28th.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Pick
NBA Pick: ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over
On the road, Minnesota is 12-13-1 ATS with 15 overs and 11 unders.
At home, Denver is 12-13-3 ATS with 16 unders and 12 overs.
When allowing under 100 points, Denver is 13-1 and Minnesota is 2-1.
The Timberwolves are 15-31 when they reach the century mark, while the Nuggets are 35-13.
Minnesota ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (39.7) while Denver ranks 26th (30.5).
The Nuggets rank sixth in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while the Timberwolves rank 29th (47.6).
Denver ranks fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while Minnesota ranks 24th (17.7).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in blocks per game (6.0) while the Nuggets rank 20th (4.7).
Denver ranks fifth in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while Minnesota ranks 20th (13.4).
The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (26.3) while the Timberwolves rank 19th (23.7).
Denver ranks eighth in points in the paint per game (49.0) while Minnesota ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (49.7).
The Timberwolves rank third in steals per game (8.6) while the Nuggets rank 11th (8.0).
Denver ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (11.5) while Minnesota ranks 26th (10.4).
In its last five games, Minnesota is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Denver is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Timberwolves’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.6, down from 3.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 111.8 points per game (1.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.2 points per game (4.4 above their season average).