The Miami Heat are on the verge of pulling off the biggest upset of the 2020 NBA Playoffs. The No. 4 seed is one step away from the Eastern Conference Finals and will look to finish the job Sunday afternoon in Game 4 against the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks.
We have prepared the most important betting tips and trends for Sunday’s showdown at Disney’s along with our best betting pick for the Bucks versus Heat matchup, so let’s take a closer look.
The Bucks can count on all their players, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is having slight problems with his ankle. On the other side, Kelly Olynyk is questionable to play due to a knee injury.
The Bucks were favorites around five points in each of the previous three games of this series, but the Heat opened as 1.5-point favorites in this one, according to BetAmerica. The totals are listed at 219.5 points on William Hill.
What’s at Stake?
The Heat need one more win to clinch the place in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2014 when LeBron James was in town. The Bucks’ season is on the line, and no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit.
It seems that Miami is at the great spot after seven straight wins in the 2020 NBA Playoffs. The Heat are still unbeaten which certainly helps their morale. On the other side, the Bucks cannot be in a deeper hole.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was scoring on 70.0% of his drives during the first-round clash with the Orlando Magic, and that dropped to 46.7% in the Heat series. Miami is playing a terrific defense on the reigning MVP, so Giannis shot only 7-for-21 in a 115-100 loss in Game 3.
The Bucks had a 14-point lead late in the third quarter this past Friday, but they were dismantled by the Heat in the fourth 40-13. It was the most lopsided fourth-quarter score since the advent of the shot clock, as the Bucks managed to miss their final 10 field-goal attempts.
Milwaukee shot only 29.7% from deep in Game 3 and 28.0% in Game 2. The Bucks desperately need to start making open threes if they want to stay alive.
Jimmy Butler is leading the way for the Heat, scoring 40 points in the opener and 30 in Game 3. Bam Adebayo is a key guy in Miami’s interior defense, and he posted a double-double of 20 points and 16 rebounds last Friday.
The Heat will continue to work hard on the defensive end and the glass while forcing the Bucks to take long-distance shots. That strategy has worked well so far, as the Heat limited the Bucks below 115 points in each of their previous three encounters.
I expect the Bucks to finally make some shots after a couple of horrible displays. The Heat will continue to leave the open space, so my top betting pick is the over on the totals.
The Bucks are obviously shaken, but the series is not over yet. If they want to force another game, the Bucks have to shoot the ball much better and try to speed up the tempo as much as possible. Still, I would avoid choosing the side even though I believe the Bucks won’t go away so easily.
I’m just looking for some slightly better shooting on both sides, and in that case, the teams should easily combine for more than 219 points.
The over is just 3-8 in the last 11 meetings between Miami and Milwaukee, while the Heat are 5-1 SU and ATS in their previous six encounters with the Bucks.