It will be a matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions when the Milwaukee Bucks (46-7) square off with the Indiana Pacers (31-23) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Bucks are riding five-game winning streak, while the Pacers have lost six games in a row. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 12, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers ATS Prediction
The Bucks will be hoping for similar success after covering the 10-point spread against the Sacramento Kings in their last outing, 123-111. The game’s combined points (234) were over the O/U total of 229.5. Making free throws was one of Milwaukee’s largest advantages. They were 19-23 (82.6 percent), while the Kings were 13-18 (72.2 percent). With 28 points on 9-for-21 shooting, Khris Middleton was the game’s high scorer.
The last time the Pacers took the court, they lost a close one to the Brooklyn Nets, 106-105, despite being 6.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (211) finished under the O/U total of 217.5. One of Brooklyn’s largest advantages was getting to the free throw line. They made 32 trips to the line, while Indiana went just 11 times. Despite the loss, Indiana’s Domantas Sabonis finished with 23 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. This gave him his third triple-double of the year.
The Bucks have won both contests against the Pacers this season, including a 117-89 blowout in their last matchup. Milwaukee covered as a 9-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 206 points, which was 14 points below the projected point total of 220 points. The Bucks knocked down 14 of their 17 free throws (82.4 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.6 vs. 18.2). In the loss, Sabonis recorded a double-double with 19 points and 18 rebounds.
Milwaukee holds records of 46-7 straight up (SU) and 31-22 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Bucks’ games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Indiana is 31-23 SU and 27-25-2 ATS. Unlike Milwaukee, games featuring the Pacers have finished over the total 53.7 percent of the time.
Indiana should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Indiana ranks fifth in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while Milwaukee forces the sixth-fewest turnovers (12.7 percent). This contest should be a battle of conflicting paces. The up-tempo Bucks rank first in possessions per game, while the more methodical Pacers rank 27th.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Odds Pick
Free NBA Pick: ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Over
Milwaukee is 15-10 ATS on the road with 14 unders and 11 overs.
At home, Indiana is 12-14-2 ATS with 15 overs and 13 unders.
Milwaukee is 12-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Indiana is 9-2.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Bucks are 46-7 and the Pacers are 31-15.
Milwaukee ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (38.5) while Indiana ranks last (27.8).
The Bucks rank first in rebounds per game (52.1) while the Pacers rank 25th (42.5).
Milwaukee ranks first in fast break points per game (19.0) while Indiana ranks 18th (12.4).
The Bucks rank third in second chance points allowed per game (11.5) while the Pacers rank 18th (13.4).
Milwaukee ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (38.5) while Indiana ranks 15th (47.9).
The Bucks rank second in blocks per game (6.4) while the Pacers rank 13th (5.0).
Indiana ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.6) while Milwaukee ranks 11th (7.3).
The Pacers average 26.2 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Bucks rank 11th in assists allowed per game (23.9).
Over its last five outings, Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Indiana is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 14.4, up from 12.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pacers have scored an average of 109.8 points per game (0.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.2 points per game (7.7 above their season average).