The Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks lock horns in Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals this Tuesday night, so I’ve prepared the best Bucks vs. Hawks betting pick along with the latest team stats, news, and betting trends.
The Bucks are a couple of games away from the NBA Finals, and they opened as firm 6-point road favorites for Game 4. The Hawks will try to stop their two-game slide as +205 moneyline dogs on BetMGM Sportsbook, while the totals are set at 221.0 points.
Milwaukee regained the home-court advantage, as Khris Middleton finally showed up
The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Atlanta Hawks as 4.5-point favorites in Game 3, 113-102, to get a 2-1 lead in this series and completely bounce back from a 116-113 home loss in the opener. The Bucks trailed by two points at the end of the third quarter, but they put on a strong performance down the stretch and outlasted the Hawks 30-17 in the fourth quarter.
Khris Middleton had a big night, accounting for 38 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists while shooting 15-for-26 from the field and 6-for-12 from downtown. He’s gone 2-for-16 through the first two games of the series in Milwaukee, so the Bucks must be pleased with Middleton’s performance in Game 3.
Giannis Antetokounmpo missed seven of his 13 free-throw attempts in Game 3 but still scored 33 points on 13-for-21 shooting from the field. The Bucks dominated the Hawks in the paint once more, scoring 56 points and posting 15 offensive rebounds. Milwaukee is averaging 12.7 offensive boards per game this postseason while yielding just 7.9 in a return.
The Hawks are failing to deal with Milwaukee’s inside game
The Atlanta Hawks got smashed by the Bucks in Game 2 (125-91), surrendering 16 offensive rebounds and a whopping 62 points in the paint. Trae Young turned the ball over nine times, finishing with 15 points and three assists, so the Hawks hoped for a much better display this past Sunday.
Atlanta certainly played better in Game 3, but it still wasn’t enough against the Bucks’ physical game. Young had 35 points on 12-for-23 shooting from the field. However, he finished with just four assists on his tally, as the rest of the pack couldn’t get things going. Bogdan Bogdanovic went 3-for-16 from the field, while John Collins and Clint Capela combined for just 21 points.
Trae Young suffered a foot injury on Sunday and is listed as questionable for Game 4 with a bone bruise. He’s averaging 29.8 points and 9.5 assists on the postseason. The Hawks desperately need more from their role players, but they also have to figure out how to cope with the Bucks in the paint. Furthermore, Atlanta went 32-for-105 from deep over the first three games against Milwaukee.
- 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against Atlanta
- 6-2 ATS in the last eight games against the Southeast Division
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games overall
- 2-5 ATS in the last seven playoff games at home as underdogs
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks Pick:
I think the Bucks will grab another win at State Farm Arena in Atlanta even if Trae Young suits up, and I’m expecting him in the Hawks’ starting lineup. Milwaukee will continue to play aggressive defense, while the Bucks’ dominance in the paint should go on, so give me the visits to win and cover a 4-points spread at slightly lower wages.
The Hawks are in a tough situation. They’ll try their best to avoid a 3-1 hole and could easily keep it close in front of the home fans. Still, Atlanta has covered just twice in its last seven playoff games at home when playing as an underdog.
Pick: Take Milwaukee Bucks -4.0 at -150
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks Total:
The under is 6-2 in the last eight encounters between Milwaukee and Atlanta, and I would stick with this betting trend even though the Bucks love to play at a fast pace. Also, the under is 7-2-1 in Milwaukee’s previous ten outings, and it is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last seven showings.
Five of those eight games between the Bucks and Hawks produced fewer than 221 points in total. Atlanta has to improve its interior defense, and the Hawks just cannot allow the Bucks to run the floor.
Pick: Go under 221.0 points at -110