Offense meets defense when the Milwaukee Bucks (49-8) head to Toronto to take on the Raptors (42-15). The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020, and will air on TNT.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 231 points with Milwaukee opening as a 1.5-point favorite at PointsBet Iowa.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Toronto Raptors ATS Prediction
In the Bucks’ last contest, they edged the Washington Wizards, 137-134, as 9.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (271) were well over the projected point total of 227.5. Milwaukee’s 0.669 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Washington, who had a rate of 0.556. The Bucks’ mark was above their season average of 0.557. Milwaukee was lifted by Khris Middleton, who led the team in scoring with 40 points on 15-for-28 shooting.
The Raptors easily got past the Indiana Pacers in their last matchup, 127-81, easily covering as 5-point favorites. The game’s total points (208) came in under the projected point total of 220. The Raptors had a phenomenal effective field goal percentage of 0.603 (above their season average of 0.538), while the Pacers had a free throw rate of 0.116 (below their season average of 0.172). With 16 points, 11 assists and seven rebounds, Toronto’s Kyle Lowry played well.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Giannis Antetokounmpo put up 36 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists and the Bucks beat the Raptors 115-105, covering as 6.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 220 points, which was 7 points below the projected point total of 227 points. The Bucks had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.2 vs. 14.6) and had a better turnover percentage (9.9 vs. 12.0).
Milwaukee heads into the contest with records of 49-8 straight up (SU) and 33-23 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Bucks games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Toronto is 42-15 SU and 32-24-1 ATS. Raptors games have a slight tendency to go over the total (52.6 percent).
Points could be at a premium as a pair of the league’s best defenses square off. Toronto currently ranks second in defensive efficiency (102.6) and Milwaukee is first (100.4).
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors Free Pick
Free Pick: ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over
On the road, Milwaukee is 16-11 ATS with 14 unders and 13 overs.
At home, Toronto is 18-12 ATS with 18 overs and 12 unders.
Toronto is 14-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Milwaukee is 13-0.
When reaching the century mark, the Bucks are 49-8 and the Raptors are 40-9.
Milwaukee averages 38.4 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Toronto ranks 29th in three pointers allowed per game (38.4).
The Bucks rank second in second chance points allowed per game (11.5) while the Raptors rank 27th (14.1).
Milwaukee averages 51.7 rebounds per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Toronto ranks 23rd in rebounds allowed per game (46.3).
The Bucks rank fifth in assists per game (26.2) while the Raptors rank 23rd in assists allowed per game (25.3).
Toronto ranks second in steals per game (8.8) while Milwaukee ranks 19th (7.4).
The Bucks average 6.2 blocks per game, which ranks third in the league. The Raptors rank 19th in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
Toronto averages 19.2 fast break points per game, which ranks first in the league. Milwaukee ranks 16th in fast break points allowed per game (13.4).
The Bucks rank fourth in points in the paint per game (50.6) while the Raptors rank 15th (48.1).
Toronto ranks second in points off turnovers per game (20.2) while Milwaukee ranks 11th (17.0).
Over its last five games, Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Toronto is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.8, down from 12.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Raptors have scored an average of 118.4 points per game (5.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.4 points per game (0.7 below their season average).