The Portland Trail Blazers (16-23) will try to slow down the league’s top scoring team when they clash with the Milwaukee Bucks (34-6) at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The game gets underway at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 11, 2020.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 230 points with Milwaukee set as a 4.5-point favorite.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers Free Prediction
In the Bucks’ last matchup, they covered the 14-point spread against the Sacramento Kings, 127-106. The total points for the game (233) finished over the O/U total of 219. The Bucks made 23 of their 30 free throws (76.7 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 9.2 (better than their season average of 12.2). With 27 points on 9-for-12 shooting, Khris Middleton was the top scorer from either team.
The Trail Blazers were beaten by the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last outing, 116-102. They were unable to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (218) came in under the projected point total of 224.5. Minnesota’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Portland. The Timberwolves had a rate of 35.7 (above their season average of 23.0), while the Trail Blazers posted a mark of 25.5. Portland’s Hassan Whiteside finished with 15 points and 14 rebounds in the contest.
This is the second game of the season between these two squads. CJ McCollum scored a game-high 37 points in the first game, in which the Trail Blazers lost 137-129 but covered as 14-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 266 points, which was 38 points above the projected point total of 228 points. Milwaukee had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (36.0 vs. 18.4). Portland, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (6.8 vs. 9.3).
Milwaukee comes into the game with records of 34-6 straight up (SU) and 21-18 against the spread (ATS). Bucks games have gone over the projected point total 51.3 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, Portland owns records of 16-23 SU and 15-22-2 ATS. Unlike Milwaukee, Trail Blazers games have finished under the projected point total 51.3 percent of the time.
Portland should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Portland ranks third in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while Milwaukee forces the sixth-fewest turnovers (13.2 percent). Moreover, the Bucks rank first in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.490), while the Trail Blazers rank 21st in effective field goal percentage (0.516).
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers Odds Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
Milwaukee is 10-9 ATS on the road with 10 overs and 9 unders.
Portland is 6-10-1 ATS at home with 10 overs and 7 unders.
When allowing less than 100 points, Portland is 4-0 and Milwaukee is 9-0.
The Trail Blazers are 16-17 when they reach 100 points, while the Bucks are 34-6.
Milwaukee ranks first in second chance points allowed per game (10.8) while Portland ranks 29th (15.8).
The Bucks rank first in rebounds per game (51.4) while the Trail Blazers rank 28th in rebounds allowed per game (48.2).
Milwaukee ranks third in points in the paint per game (51.1) while Portland ranks 29th (43.1).
The Bucks rank fifth in assists per game (25.9) while the Trail Blazers rank last (19.6).
Milwaukee ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (39.1) while Portland ranks 20th in three pointers allowed per game (34.3).
The Bucks rank 11th in steals per game (7.8) while the Trail Blazers rank 26th (5.9).
Milwaukee ranks 14th in points off turnovers per game (17.3) while Portland ranks 29th (14.1).
The Bucks average 18.6 fast break points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Trail Blazers rank 15th in fast break points allowed per game (13.0).
Milwaukee averages 6.3 blocks per game, which ranks third in the league. Portland ranks 16th in blocks allowed per game (5.4).
In its last five contests, Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Portland is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.8, down from 12.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Trail Blazers have scored an average of 105.8 points per game (5.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 111.4 points per game (2.2 below their season average).