Offense meets defense when the Miami Heat (38-22) welcome the Milwaukee Bucks (52-8) to AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on NBATV at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 2, 2020.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction
The Bucks come in on a high note after beating the Charlotte Hornets in their last outing, 93-85, as 10-point underdogs (at Borgata). The total points for the game (178) came in well under the projected point total of 227. The Bucks made 16 of their 21 free throws (76.2 percent) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 30.0 (above their season average of 20.8). With 41 points on 17-for-28 shooting, Giannis Antetokounmpo was the top scorer from either team.
The last time the Heat played, they won a close one over the Brooklyn Nets, 116-113, but failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (229) came in over the O/U total of 220. The Heat had a phenomenally low turnover percentage of 5.6 (better than their season average of 12.7) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 21.7 (above their season average of 20.7). With 16 points and 12 rebounds, Miami’s Bam Adebayo played well.
This showdown pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Miami currently ranks fourth in offensive efficiency and Milwaukee ranks first in defensive efficiency. It will also be a showdown of opposite paces as the quick-paced Bucks rank second in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Heat rank 21st.
Milwaukee comes into the game with records of 52-8 straight up (SU) and 35-24 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Bucks’ games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 38-22 SU and 30-28-2 ATS. Of the Heat’s 60 games, 37 have finished over the total.
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, the Bucks lost 131-126, unable to cover as 11.5-point favorites. Antetokounmpo led both teams with 29 points and also put up 17 rebounds and nine assists. The game finished with a total of 257 points, which was 35 points above the projected point total of 222 points. The Heat had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (16.0 vs. 9.8) and had a better turnover percentage (12.0 vs. 14.1).
Bucks at Heat Odds Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
On the road, Milwaukee is 17-12 ATS with 15 unders and 14 overs.
At home, Miami is 18-10-1 ATS with 20 overs and 9 unders.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Miami is 7-1 and Milwaukee is 16-0.
When reaching the century mark, the Heat are 37-16 and the Bucks are 51-8.
Milwaukee ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (38.4) while Miami ranks 27th in three pointers allowed per game (38.1).
The Bucks rank third in fast break points per game (18.7) while the Heat rank 26th (10.9).
Milwaukee ranks second in blocks per game (6.2) while Miami ranks 22nd (4.3).
The Bucks rank fourth in points in the paint per game (50.3) while the Heat rank 24th (44.7).
Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (42.1) while Milwaukee ranks 20th (45.6).
The Bucks average 26.2 assists per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Heat rank 19th in assists allowed per game (24.9).
Milwaukee ranks 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.9) while Miami ranks 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.9).
The Bucks rank 18th in second chance points per game (12.6) while the Heat rank 25th (12.1).
In its last five contests, Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 5 overs over its last five games.
The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 18.0, up from 12.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 122.2 points per game (9.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 118.0 points per game (8.5 above their season average).