Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop Pick & Prediction – Mar 27th, 2024

Ben Morris on March 27th, 2024

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-106/-120) at DraftKings sportsbook.

Michael Porter Jr. has made 55.4% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 6.7% higher than he’s put through the net overall this year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. measures in the 81st percentile for playing time, logging a monstrous 31.4 minutes per game when playing at home this year.
The Nuggets are expected to see a rise in plays today from squaring off against the 7th-fastest pace offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Phoenix Suns).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 6th-best in in the league with 12.0 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Michael Porter Jr. has sunk 91.7% of his free throw attempts over the last 15 games at home, 8.5% higher than he’s put through the net over the course of the season while on his home court.

The matchup against Phoenix is a hard one for 3-point shots; when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting team, the opposition’s starting PFs have totaled the least treys per game in the league this year (0.9).
The 4th-least up-tempo pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been lousy at getting to the charity stripe: 3rd-worst in the league this year, drawing a mere 20.1 foul shot attempts per game.