The Utah Jazz (35-18) take on the Miami Heat (35-18) at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The game is scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 12, 2020.
Utah opened as a 4.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 217.5 points at DraftKings Indiana Sportsbook.
Miami Heat at Utah Jazz ATS Prediction
The Heat will be looking for similar success after covering the 7-point spread against the Golden State Warriors in their last matchup, 113-101. The game’s total points (214) were under the O/U total of 220. The Heat forced 16 turnovers and held the Warriors to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.6 (below their season average of 21.7). Jimmy Butler had a good outing for Miami, contributing 21 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.
In the Jazz’s last matchup, they were victorious over the Dallas Mavericks, 123-119, despite being 1.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (242) came in well over the O/U total of 216.5. Utah out-rebounded Dallas. The Jazz had 10 offensive rebounds and 45 total rebounds, while the Mavericks had four and 26, respectively. With 17 points and 16 rebounds, Utah’s Rudy Gobert had a good game.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Jazz lost 107-104 but covered as 4.5-point underdogs. Gobert had 18 points, 19 rebounds and five blocks. The game finished with a total of 211 points, which was just 3 points below the projected point total of 214 points. Miami made good use of their 27 trips to the charity stripe, converting on 24 of them (88.9 percent). Utah, on the other hand, was 14-18 (77.8 percent).
Miami comes into the contest with records of 35-18 straight up (SU) and 28-23-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Heat are involved, as 30 of their 53 contests have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, Utah owns records of 35-18 SU and 26-25-2 ATS. Of the Jazz’s 53 games, 28 have finished over the projected point total.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams battle. Utah currently ranks 26th in possessions per game (100.5) and Miami is 21st (100.9). Additionally, second chance points could be rare for the Heat. They rank 27th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage at 20.9 percent, while the Jazz are fourth-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 79.4 percent).
Miami Heat at Utah Jazz Free Pick
Free Prediction: ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
Miami is 12-15-1 ATS on the road with 14 overs, 13 unders and 1 push.
At home, Utah is 12-11-1 ATS with 13 overs and 11 unders.
Utah is 12-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Miami is 7-1.
The Heat and Jazz are both 34-12 when they reach the century mark.
Utah ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (31.5) while Miami ranks 27th (37.8).
The Jazz rank first in assists allowed per game (20.8) while the Heat rank 20th (24.7).
Miami ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (11.7) while Utah ranks 13th (12.7).
The Jazz rank 16th in points in the paint per game (47.9) while the Heat rank 25th (44.8).
Miami ranks 22nd in steals per game (7.2) while Utah ranks last (5.8).
The Heat rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Jazz rank 13th (4.8).
Utah ranks 17th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.0) while Miami ranks 25th (18.1).
The Jazz rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while the Heat rank ninth (12.2).
Miami is third in the league with 42.0 rebounds allowed per game while Utah is fourth with 42.7 rebounds allowed per game.
Over its last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Utah is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 3.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 111.2 points per game (0.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.6 points per game (6.3 above their season average).