The Portland Trail Blazers (24-29) clash against the Miami Heat (34-17) at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The game can be seen on Fox Sports Sun at 9 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 9, 2020.
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers ATS Prediction
In the Heat’s last game, they were 1-point favorites and were defeated by the Sacramento Kings, 105-97. The game’s combined points (202) were well under the projected point total of 219.5. Sacramento’s 13.8 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Miami, who had a mark of 18.5. The Kings’ mark was worse than their season average of 12.8, while the Heat’s was above their season average of 12.8. Bam Adebayo was the top scorer from either team with 26 points on 12-for-16 shooting.
The Trail Blazers lost a tough one against the Utah Jazz in their last outing, 117-114, but did cover as 10.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (231) were just over the projected point total of 230.5. Utah’s free throw rate was their largest advantage over Portland. The Jazz had a rate of 0.187 (below their season average of 0.205), while the Trail Blazers posted a mark of 0.093 (below their season average of 0.193). Portland’s Damian Lillard put together a solid game, leading both teams in scoring with 42 points on 16-for-30 shooting.
Portland could put on a ball-control clinic in this meeting. Portland ranks third in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.0 percent), while Miami forces the sixth-fewest turnovers (12.7 percent).
Miami heads into the game with records of 34-17 straight up (SU) and 27-22-2 against the spread (ATS). Heat games tend to go over the total (58.8 percent).
Meanwhile, Portland is 24-29 SU and 22-29-2 ATS. Of the Trail Blazers’ 53 games, 29 have finished over the projected point total.
This is the second game of the season between these two squads. Lillard scored a game-high 34 points in the first matchup, in which the Trail Blazers lost 122-111, unable to cover as 5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 233 points, which was 17.5 points above the projected point total of 215.5 points. The Heat had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.6 vs. 18.2) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.622 vs. 0.534).
Heat vs. Trail Blazers Odds Pick
Free NBA Pick: ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
Portland ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while Miami ranks 25th (18.2).
Portland averages 34.0 three pointers per game, which ranks 13th in the league. Miami ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.8).
The Trail Blazers rank fourth in steals allowed per game (6.8) while the Heat rank 15th (7.6).
Portland is 10-14-1 ATS at home, while Miami is 11-14-1 ATS on the road.
In its last five outings, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Portland is 4-1 ATS with 5 overs over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.2, down from 3.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Trail Blazers have scored an average of 117.8 points per game (4.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 117.4 points per game (2.4 above their season average).
