The Philadelphia 76ers (20-8) will try to extend their 14-game home winning streak in a matchup against the Miami Heat (19-8) at Wells Fargo Center. The game will air on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 18, 2019.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 213 points with Philadelphia set as a 6.5-point favorite.
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers Free Prediction
The Heat were not able to cover as 3-point favorites in their 118-111 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies in their last matchup. The game’s total points (229) finished over the projected point total of 217.5. Memphis out-rebounded Miami. The Grizzlies had more offensive rebounds (16 vs. seven), defensive rebounds (29 vs. 28) and total rebounds (45 vs. 35). Miami’s Bam Adebayo had a solid game, putting up 14 points, 13 rebounds and five assists.
In the 76ers’ previous matchup, they were blown out by the Brooklyn Nets, 109-89, despite being 4-point favorites. The game’s total points (198) came in well under the projected point total of 220.5. Brooklyn out-rebounded Philadelphia. The Nets had 12 offensive rebounds and 51 total rebounds, while the 76ers had seven and 38, respectively. With 20 points on 7-for-10 shooting, Ben Simmons was Philadelphia’s leading scorer.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Joel Embiid had 23 points and 11 rebounds in the first game, in which the 76ers defeated the Heat 113-86, covering as 5.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 199 points, which was 11.5 points below the projected point total of 210.5 points. The 76ers had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.590 vs. 0.440) and had a better turnover percentage (13.4 vs. 16.4).
Miami holds records of 19-8 straight up (SU) and 16-9-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total low when the Heat are involved, as 15 of their 27 contests have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia owns records of 20-8 SU and 13-12-3 ATS. 76ers games have no tendency in regards to the projected point total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
This has potential to be a sloppy game for the offense of Philadelphia. Philadelphia ranks 27th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.1 percent), while the disruptive defense of Miami forces the seventh-most turnovers in the league (14.9 percent). Furthermore, the Heat, who rank 25th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.4 percent), could have a tough time getting second chance points against the 76ers, who rank first in defensive rebounding percentage (81.8 percent).
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers Pick
NBA Prediction: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Miami is 7-7-1 ATS on the road with 7 overs, 7 unders and 1 push.
Philadelphia is 7-5-2 ATS at home with 8 unders, 5 overs and 1 push.
Philadelphia is 10-0 when they allow under 100 points, while Miami is 4-1.
When reaching 100 points, the Heat are 19-4 and the 76ers are 17-4.
Philadelphia ranks first in three pointers allowed per game (26.7) while Miami ranks 28th (37.8).
The 76ers rank fifth in blocks per game (6.1) while the Heat rank 24th (4.5).
Philadelphia ranks second in assists allowed per game (21.0) while Miami ranks 19th (24.3).
The 76ers average 8.7 steals per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Heat rank 17th in steals allowed per game (8.0).
Philadelphia ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (11.0) while Miami ranks 15th (13.0).
The 76ers rank 12th in fast break points per game (13.4) while the Heat rank 25th (11.3).
Philadelphia ranks 16th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3) while Miami ranks 27th (19.3).
The 76ers rank first in rebounds allowed per game (39.8) while the Heat rank third (41.5).
In its last five contests, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 5 overs.
Philadelphia is 2-1-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.6, down from 4.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the 76ers have scored an average of 105.4 points per game (3.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.6 points per game (0.5 above their season average).