The top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks are alive, avoiding a sweep in thrilling overtime this past Sunday. They cut the deficit to 3-1 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals series against the fourth-seeded Miami Heat, and Game 5 is set for Tuesday, September 8, with a tip-off at 6:30 PM ET.
Can the Bucks find a way to prolong the series or the Heat will finish the job and complete the biggest upset of the 2020 NBA Playoffs?
We’ll find out soon, so here’s the best betting pick for Tuesday’s Heat versus Bucks showdown along with the latest odds update and all the tips and trends you need to know.
Giannis Antetokounmpo aggravated his ankle injury on Sunday and couldn’t finish Game 4. He wore a protective boot on Monday, but the Bucks still consider him as a game-time call for Tuesday. Even if Giannis suits up, he shouldn’t be 100 percent ready to play.
On the other side, the Heat could miss Jae Crowder (tailbone) and Kelly Olynyk (knee).
However, these lines could easily change depending on Giannis’ status ahead of the tip-off. If he hits the sidelines, the bookies will adjust the spread in Milwaukee’s favor.
What’s at Stake?
The Bucks’ season is on the line, while the Heat have a chance to avoid further drama and earn a few days to rest well ahead of the conference finals.
The previous game was a proper nail-biter. Giannis left the floor early in the second quarter, and the Bucks were down 107-106 with 21.4 seconds to go in the fourth. Donte DiVincenzo had a couple of free throws with 1.9 seconds left on the clock, but he only managed to force overtime.
The Bucks pulled off an upset eventually, but Giannis’ injury won’t help their morale ahead of another must-win clash.
The Heat have been playing terrific defense all series long. They are forcing Giannis into tough layups, allowing no easy baskets, and will continue to do the same thing if Antetokounmpo suits up Tuesday.
The Bucks couldn’t find their shooting rhythm for most of the series, but Khris Middleton stepped up in Game 4 and knocked down some huge triples down the stretch. Still, the Bucks made only 11 of their 35 attempts from deep (31.4%).
At least, the Bucks played solid defense, limiting the Heat to 44.4% shooting from the field. However, the Bucks will stand a chance in Game 5 only if they execute well offensively. Milwaukee scored 54 points in the paint last Sunday which are the most against the Heat in this series.
Miami loves to share the ball and will find a way to score against Milwaukee even though the Bucks are one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Heat have won two of their three encounters with the Bucks this past regular season and are 11-5 SU and ATS in their previous 16 matchups with Milwaukee.
I won’t wait for too long to take the Heat at -155 moneyline odds. Giannis’ status could affect the odds and lines a lot, but even if the reigning MVP takes the floor, he’ll be limited by an ankle injury.
Therefore, I expect the Heat to put on another strong defensive performance and get the job done. They’ve been a better team than the Bucks over the previous four contests, so I won’t risk -155 odds or a 3-point spread and wait to see what will happen with Antetokounmpo.
Furthermore, the Heat possess great depth and an excellent head coach in Erik Spoelstra who should know how to prepare his team for this kind of situations.