The NBA betting action continues Saturday night with the rematch of the 2020 NBA Finals, so here’s my best Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers betting pick along with the key tips and trends and the latest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Heat opened as 3-point road dogs for Saturday’s clash at Staples Center in Los Angeles. They will miss Goran Dragic (ankle), Avery Bradley (calf), and Meyers Leonard (shoulder), while the Lakers are without Anthony Davis (calf) and Dennis Schroder (medical protocols).
Miami halted a three-game slide
The Miami Heat (12-17; 10-18-1 ATS) are coming off a 118-110 victory at the Sacramento Kings, putting an end to a three-game losing streak. Jimmy Butler posted his third straight triple-double, accounting for 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists, while Tyler Herro notched 27 points in 32 minutes off the bench.
The Heat stormed the front and built a 14-point lead by the end of the first half, allowing just 43 points to the Kings. They finished the game with 51.6% shooting from the field, 36 assists, and a whopping 70 points in the paint.
Miami is the No. 11 seed in the Eastern Conference, 1.5 games behind the eighth-seeded Charlotte. The Heat have had a ton of injury problems thus far, so they score only 107.4 points per 100 possessions (25th in the NBA) while ranking 15th in field goal percentage (46.5%) and 24th in 3-point percentage (35.2%).
Erik Spoelstra’s boys tally the fewest offensive rebounds per 100 possessions (7.2) and are leading the NBA in turnovers (16.5 per 100 possessions). At least, Miami ranks ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions (110.7) and fourth in opponent field goal percentage (45.0%).
Los Angeles couldn’t cope with the Nets, dropped two of its last three games
The Los Angeles Lakers (22-7; 14-15 ATS) couldn’t overcome the absence of Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder last Thursday, suffering a 109-98 defeat as 3-point home favorites. LeBron James did it all, accounting for 32 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists, but it wasn’t enough against the red-hot Nets.
Brooklyn went 18-for-39 from downtown, while the Lakers made only eight of their 30 attempts from deep (26.7%). LA trailed by as many as 25 points and didn’t really stand a chance of beating the Nets.
The Lakers will lean heavily on LeBron in the next four weeks until Anthony Davis returns from his calf injury. James has just become the third player in NBA history with 35,000 points, but he’ll need more help from his teammates in further days.
The Lakers score 112.1 points per 100 possessions (15th in the NBA) on 48.7% shooting from the field (3rd) and 35.8% from beyond the arc (18th). Over their last ten outings, the Lakers are connecting on just 29.2% of their 3-pointers. They allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions (1st) on 45.1% shooting from the field (5th) and 35.2% from downtown (3rd).
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Lakers
- 15-8 ATS in the last 23 outings as underdogs of three or fewer points
- 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games overall
- 1-6 ATS in the last seven games against Eastern Conference
The Lakers miss Anthony Davis a lot, and Dennis Schroder’s absence is just another problem for head coach Frank Vogel. The Heat will be keen to get revenge after a tough loss in the 2020 NBA Finals, so I’m expecting a hard-fought battle down the stretch.
I don’t feel comfortable with a 3-point spread either, but the Heat could easily upset the odds, so give me the visitors and points. For a two-game parlay, I would take the Heat as 7-point dogs at -200 odds.
Pick: Take Miami Heat +3.0 at -110
Both Heat and Lakers average just under 99.0 possessions per 48 minutes. The Lakers own the best defensive rating in the NBA, while the Heat lean on their defense a lot, too, so I’m backing the under on the totals.
The line is a tricky one at 212.5 points. The under has hit in eight of the previous 11 encounters between the heat and Lakers, but five of those 11 games produced more than 212 points in total.
Pick: Go under 212.5 points at -110