The Los Angeles Clippers (35-15) meet the Miami Heat (34-15) at the Staples Center. The game will air on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 5, 2020.
Los Angeles is a 6.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 223 points at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers Betting Prediction
The Heat come in on a high note after comfortably covering the 2.5-point spread against the Philadelphia 76ers in their last contest, 137-106. The total points for the game (243) were well over the O/U total of 211. The Heat had an extraordinarily low turnover percentage of 3.0 (better than their season average of 13.1) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.659 (above their season average of 0.546). With 38 points on 14-for-20 shooting, Jimmy Butler was the game’s high scorer.
The last time the Clippers took the court, they barely escaped the San Antonio Spurs, 108-105, but failed to cover as 9-point favorites. The combined points for the game (213) were well under the O/U total of 230. Los Angeles’ free throw rate was their largest strength over San Antonio. The Clippers had a rate of 0.226 (matching their season average), while the Spurs posted a mark of 0.137 (below their season average of 0.206). With 19 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists, Los Angeles’ Paul George played well.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Kawhi Leonard put up 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in the first matchup, in which the Clippers beat the Heat 122-117, covering as 2.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 239 points, which was 20 points above the projected point total of 219 points. The Clippers had a better offensive rebounding percentage (23.4 vs. 19.6) and had a better turnover percentage (7.1 vs. 7.8).
Miami holds records of 34-15 straight up (SU) and 27-20-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 49 games, 29 have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 35-15 SU and 26-23-1 ATS. Unlike Miami, games including the Clippers have a tendency to go under the projected point total (56.0 percent).
The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. The Clippers are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking fifth in offensive rebounding percentage at 24.5 percent. Meanwhile, Miami ranks third in the league at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.3 percent. Also, the elite offense of the Heat ranks fourth in effective field goal percentage (0.548), while the Clippers are third-best in the league at effective field goal percentage allowed (0.502).
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Clippers Free Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Trends
Miami is 11-12-1 ATS on the road with 13 overs, 10 unders and 1 push.
Los Angeles is 14-11-1 ATS at home with 14 unders and 12 overs.
Los Angeles is 13-0 when they allow below 100 points, while Miami is 7-1.
The Clippers and Heat are both 33-10 when they score above 100 points.
Los Angeles ranks fourth in second chance points per game (14.7) while Miami ranks 27th (11.7).
The Heat rank second in fast break points allowed per game (11.7) while the Clippers rank 23rd (14.4).
Los Angeles ranks seventh in points in the paint per game (49.2) while Miami ranks 25th (45.0).
The Clippers rank eighth in points off turnovers per game (17.7) while the Heat rank 25th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.9).
Los Angeles ranks second in rebounds per game (48.1) while Miami ranks 17th (45.1).
The Heat rank fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Clippers rank 17th (5.0).
Miami averages 33.8 three pointers per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 26th in three pointers allowed per game (35.3).
The Heat rank 22nd in steals per game (7.2) while the Clippers rank 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.1).
Over its last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Los Angeles is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.4, up from 4.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Clippers have scored an average of 112.6 points per game (2.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.8 points per game (0.4 above their season average).