The Boston Celtics (14-5) look to extend their seven-game home winning streak in a matchup against the Miami Heat (15-5) at TD Garden. The game gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 4, 2019.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 213 points with Boston set as a 5.5-point favorite.
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Free Prediction
The Heat come in on a high note after covering the 4.5-point spread against the Toronto Raptors in their last game, 121-110. The game’s combined points (231) came in well over the projected point total of 215. The Heat had a better offensive rebounding percentage (20.4 vs. 16.7) and held the Raptors to an effective field goal percentage of 0.445 (below their season average of 0.546). Miami was led by Jimmy Butler, who notched his zeroth triple-double of the year. He took over, racking up 22 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists.
The last time the Celtics took the court, they defeated the New York Knicks, 113-104, covering as 7.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (217) were over the projected point total of 208.5. The Celtics had an extraordinary offensive rebounding percentage of 34.0 (above their season average of 22.9) and had a better turnover percentage (11.2 vs. 13.2). Jayson Tatum was the top scorer from either team with 30 points on 10-for-23 shooting from the field.
After the Celtics won three out of four matchups against the Heat last season, these teams will battle for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, Boston won 112-102. The Celtics made 27 of their 31 free throws (87.1 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (10.5 vs. 12.6).
Miami heads into the game with records of 15-5 straight up (SU) and 12-5-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 19 games with betting action, nine have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Boston owns records of 14-5 SU and 11-7-1 ATS. Celtics games tend to finish under the total (57.9 percent).
Based on historical performance heading into this one, ball protection could play a significant role in this contest. Boston commits the second-fewest miscues in the league (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while the pesky defense of Miami forces the second-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.7 percent).
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Free Pick
Free NBA Pick: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Trends
On the road, Miami is 5-5-1 ATS with 6 unders, 4 overs and 1 push.
Boston is 4-3 ATS at home with 4 overs and 3 unders.
Boston is 3-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 4-1.
The Heat are 15-2 when they score over 100 points, while the Celtics are 13-2.
Boston ranks first in steals allowed per game (5.8) while Miami ranks 28th (8.8).
The Celtics rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.7) while the Heat rank 28th (19.8).
Miami ranks second in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while Boston ranks 25th (6.0).
The Heat rank third in rebounds allowed per game (40.8) while the Celtics rank 25th (47.3).
Boston ranks eighth in fast break points per game (14.7) while Miami ranks 26th (11.1).
The Celtics rank 11th in three pointers attempted per game (34.7) while the Heat rank 25th in three pointers allowed per game (36.7).
Boston ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.5) while Miami ranks eighth (45.2).
In its last five contests, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
Boston is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.8, up from 6.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 107.2 points per game (3.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.8 points per game (0.3 above their season average).
