The San Antonio Spurs (17-23) meet the Miami Heat (29-12) at the AT&T Center. The game starts at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 19, 2020, and will air on Fox Sports – Southwest.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 221 points with Miami set as a 1-point favorite.
Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs Free Prediction
In the Heat’s last game, they covered the 1-point spread against the Oklahoma City Thunder, 115-108. The combined points for the game (223) were over the O/U total of 216. The Heat held the Thunder to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.3 (below their season average of 19.9). The Thunder had a free throw rate of 0.190 (below their season average of 0.227). Miami rallied around Jimmy Butler, who contributed 14 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.
The Spurs lost a close one to the Atlanta Hawks in their last outing, 121-120, despite being 9-point favorites. The game’s combined points (241) came in over the projected point total of 230.5. Atlanta’s effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over San Antonio. The Hawks had a rate of 0.616 (above their season average of 0.504), while the Spurs posted a mark of 0.500. San Antonio’s DeMar DeRozan finished with 25 points, nine rebounds and nine assists in the contest.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Spurs lost 106-100, unable to cover as 5-point underdogs. DeRozan recorded 30 points, seven assists and five rebounds. The game finished with a total of 206 points, which was 13.5 points below the projected point total of 219.5 points. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (18.6 vs. 12.8). San Antonio, meanwhile, did a terrific job of making free throws (12-15; 80.0 percent).
Miami holds records of 29-12 straight up (SU) and 23-16-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 41 games, 25 have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, San Antonio is 17-23 SU and 14-24-2 ATS. Games featuring the Spurs also have typically finished over the O/U total (60.0 percent).
San Antonio should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. San Antonio ranks fifth in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while Miami forces the seventh-fewest turnovers (13.1 percent). Moreover, the Heat, who rank 24th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.4 percent), might struggle to get put-back points against the Spurs, who rank fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.5 percent).
Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
On the road, Miami is 10-11-1 ATS with 13 overs, 8 unders and 1 push.
San Antonio is 6-15 ATS at home with 13 overs, 7 unders and 1 push.
When allowing less than 100 points, San Antonio is 1-0 and Miami is 5-1.
The Spurs are 17-19 when they score more than 100 points, while the Heat are 28-7.
San Antonio ranks fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.9) while Miami ranks 26th (18.7).
The Spurs rank eighth in blocks per game (5.7) while the Heat rank 27th (4.1).
San Antonio ranks eighth in fast break points per game (14.6) while Miami ranks 25th (10.7).
The Heat rank 14th in three pointers attempted per game (33.5) while the Spurs rank 29th (28.0).
Miami averages 25.2 assists per game, which ranks 11th in the league. San Antonio ranks 25th in assists allowed per game (25.5).
The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while the Spurs rank 15th (45.7).
Miami ranks 23rd in points in the paint per game (45.4) while San Antonio ranks 28th (44.5).
The Heat are 27th in the league with 11.7 second chance points per game while the Spurs are 28th with 11.6 second chance points per game.
Over its last five outings, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
San Antonio is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.0, up from 3.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 115.0 points per game (1.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.8 points per game (0.9 above their season average).