The Miami Heat (32-15) will have their hands full against the NBA’s top scoring defense when they meet the Orlando Magic (21-27) at Amway Center. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 1, 2020, and will air on Fox SportsNet Florida.
Miami is a 1.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 206.5 points at William Hill Sportsbook.
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic Free Prediction
In the Heat’s last game, they were beaten by the Boston Celtics, 109-101, and failed to cover as 3-point underdogs. The total points for the game (210) were under the projected point total of 221.5. Boston’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Miami. The Celtics had a rate of 0.548 (above their season average of 0.528), while the Heat posted a mark of 0.421 (below their season average of 0.549). Bam Adebayo played well for Miami, finishing with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
The Magic’s last game was against the Heat. In that game, the two teams combined to put up 205 points, just under the projected point total of 207. The Heat won 113-92, covering as 6.5-point favorites. Both teams have now won one game in the season series. Miami made 14 of its 28 three pointers (50.0 percent). Orlando, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.4 vs. 9.1). Adebayo played a huge role in the victory, recording a a triple-double with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams clash. Orlando ranks 29th in possessions per game (99.7) and Miami is 22nd (101.2). Also, the Heat rank first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.237), while the Magic rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.168).
Miami comes into the game with records of 32-15 straight up (SU) and 25-20-2 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers tend to set the total low when the Heat are playing, as 28 of their 47 contests have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Orlando owns records of 21-27 SU and 21-23-4 ATS. Contrary to Miami, Magic games have typically gone under the O/U total (58.3 percent).
Heat vs. Magic Pick
NBA Tip: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
On the road, Miami is 10-12-1 ATS with 13 overs, 9 unders and 1 push.
At home, Orlando is 9-13-2 ATS with 16 unders and 8 overs.
Miami is 6-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Orlando is 12-4.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Magic are 17-10 and the Heat are 31-10.
Orlando ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.0) while Miami ranks 26th (18.2).
The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while the Magic rank 22nd (46.1).
Orlando ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.8) while Miami ranks 25th (4.2).
The Magic rank fourth in steals per game (8.5) while the Heat rank 21st (7.2).
Orlando ranks 11th in three pointers allowed per game (33.0) while Miami ranks 28th (37.4).
The Magic rank third in second chance points allowed per game (11.5) while the Heat rank 14th (12.8).
Orlando ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.0) while Miami ranks eighth (45.8).
The Magic rank 23rd in fast break points per game (11.8) while the Heat rank 25th (10.7).
Over its last five contests, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Orlando is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.6, down from 3.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Magic have scored an average of 101.4 points per game (2.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.4 points per game (2.7 above their season average).