The Oklahoma City Thunder (23-18) clash against the Miami Heat (28-12) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 17, 2020.
Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Prediction
The Heat come in on a high note after covering the 5-point spread against the San Antonio Spurs in their last matchup, 106-100. The total points for the game (206) finished under the O/U total of 219.5. Miami’s 18.6 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over San Antonio, who had a mark of 12.8. The Heat’s mark was below their season average of 21.6, while the Spurs’ was below their season average of 21.0. Bam Adebayo had a good outing for Miami, finishing with 14 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists.
In the Thunder’s previous game, they lost to the Toronto Raptors, 130-121, despite being 1-point favorites. The game’s combined points (251) were well over the O/U total of 213. Toronto’s 15.6 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Oklahoma City, who had a mark of 11.4. The Raptors’ mark was below their season average of 22.5, while the Thunder’s was below their season average of 20.1. With 16 points, 11 assists and five rebounds, Chris Paul had a solid performance for Oklahoma City.
After splitting two games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last contest, the Heat won 116-107. Miami had a much better turnover percentage (7.1 vs. 16.1). Oklahoma City, meanwhile, did an excellent job of converting from the charity stripe (21-27; 77.8 percent).
Miami comes into the contest with records of 28-12 straight up (SU) and 22-16-2 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers have a tendency to set the total low when the Heat are involved, as 60.0 percent of their games have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 23-18 SU and 26-14-1 ATS. Contrary to Miami, games involving the Thunder have a tendency to go under the total (56.1 percent).
Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Oklahoma City ranks 24th in possessions per game (100.9) and Miami is 22nd (101.1). Also, the Heat are among the NBA’s elite at getting to the line, ranking first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.234). The Thunder, however, rank third at keeping opponents off the charity stripe with an opponents’ FTA rate of 0.163.
Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Pick
Free Prediction: ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Over
Miami is 9-11-1 ATS on the road with 12 overs, 8 unders and 1 push.
At home, Oklahoma City is 11-9-1 ATS with 11 unders and 10 overs.
Oklahoma City is 7-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Miami is 5-1.
The Heat are 27-7 when they score more than 100 points, while the Thunder are 22-11.
Oklahoma City ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (31.5) while Miami ranks 28th (36.9).
The Thunder rank ninth in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.1) while the Heat rank 26th (18.8).
Miami ranks 11th in assists per game (25.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 26th (21.7).
The Thunder rank 17th in blocks per game (4.8) while the Heat rank 27th (4.2).
Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Oklahoma City ranks 10th (44.7).
The Heat rank 24th in fast break points per game (10.9) while the Thunder rank 29th (9.4).
Miami is 25th in the league with 11.7 second chance points per game while Oklahoma City is 28th with 11.1 second chance points per game.
The Thunder average 7.5 steals per game, which ranks 18th in the NBA. The Heat rank 20th in steals allowed per game (8.0).
In its last five outings, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.8, up from 3.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 114.4 points per game (5.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.8 points per game (2.9 above their season average).