The New Orleans Pelicans (26-36) clash against the Miami Heat (40-22) at the Smoothie King Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, March 6, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 235.5 points with New Orleans set as a 2-point favorite at most US Sportsbooks.
Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans ATS Prediction
Although the Heat topped the Orlando Magic in their last outing, 116-113, they were not able to cover as 6.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (229) came in over the projected point total of 218.5. The Heat held the Magic to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.3 (below their season average of 22.3) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.658 (above their season average of 0.548). Miami was lifted by Goran Dragic, who contributed 25 points and nine assists.
The last time the Pelicans played, they lost to the Dallas Mavericks, 127-123, but did cover as 6-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (250) finished over the projected point total of 240. Dallas’ free throw rate was their biggest strength over New Orleans. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.179 (below their season average of 0.202), while the Pelicans posted a mark of 0.053 (below their season average of 0.185). With 25 points, 11 rebounds and six assists, New Orleans’ Lonzo Ball put together a solid performance.
This contest should be a matchup of contrasting styles. New Orleans has preferred an up-and-down style of play (second in possessions per game), while Miami has been more methodical (21st in possessions per game).
Miami comes into the contest with records of 40-22 straight up (SU) and 31-29-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total low when the Heat are involved, as 61.3 percent of their contests have gone over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, New Orleans owns records of 26-36 SU and 29-29-4 ATS. Pelicans games also have a tendency to finish over the total (56.5 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Dragic (18 points,5.8 assists) has been fantastic for the Heat while Ball (12 points,9.2 assists,6.8 rebounds,2.8 steals) has contributed greatly to the Pelicans.
This is the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, Bam Adebayo put up 18 points and 13 rebounds and the Heat defeated the Pelicans 109-94, covering as 8-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 203 points, which was 23 points below the projected point total of 226 points. The Heat made 12 of their 13 free throws (92.3 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (27.3 vs. 16.3).
Heat vs. Pelicans Betting Pick
Free NBA Pick: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
On the road, Miami is 12-18-1 ATS with 17 overs, 13 unders and 1 push.
At home, New Orleans is 14-17 ATS with 17 overs and 14 unders.
New Orleans is 3-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 8-1.
The Heat are 39-16 when they reach the century mark, while the Pelicans are 26-33.
Miami ranks second in fast break points allowed per game (11.5) while New Orleans ranks 27th (15.7).
The Pelicans rank third in second chance points per game (14.4) while the Heat rank 26th (11.8).
New Orleans averages 37.7 three pointers per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Miami ranks 27th in three pointers allowed per game (37.9).
The Heat rank seventh in points allowed in the paint per game (45.1) while the Pelicans rank 28th (53.0).
New Orleans ranks third in assists per game (27.0) while Miami ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (24.8).
The Heat rank 13th in steals allowed per game (7.5) while the Pelicans rank 27th (8.4).
Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (42.1) while New Orleans ranks 15th (45.1).
The Heat rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Pelicans rank 12th (4.8).
Miami ranks 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.8) while New Orleans ranks 26th (19.1).
In its last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.4, up from 3.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 119.2 points per game (3.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 122.0 points per game (4.6 above their season average).