The Memphis Grizzlies (9-17) go head-to-head with the Miami Heat (19-7) at FedExForum. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, December 16, 2019, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.
Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies Betting Prediction
The Heat come in on a high note after defeating the Dallas Mavericks in their last contest, 122-118, as 8.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (240) came in well over the projected point total of 215.5. Miami was successful at getting and making free throws. The Heat made 28 of their 34 free throws (82.4 percent), while the Mavericks were just 11-17 (64.7 percent). Bam Adebayo played an enormous role in the victory for Miami, registering 18 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists on his way to his first triple-double this season.
In the Grizzlies’ previous matchup, they were victorious over the Washington Wizards, 128-111, easily covering as 1.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (239) finished just over the projected point total of 237. Memphis’ 0.637 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Washington, who had a rate of 0.506. The Grizzlies’ mark was above their season average of 0.514. Dillon Brooks was Memphis’ top scorer with 27 points on 10-for-17 shooting from the field.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Justise Winslow scored a game-high 27 points in the first game, in which the Heat beat the Grizzlies 120-101, covering as 6.5-point favorites. He also had seven rebounds and seven assists. The game finished with a total of 221 points, which was 7 points above the projected point total of 214 points. The Heat made 33 of their 39 free throws (84.6 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (26.2 vs. 18.4).
Miami comes into the contest with records of 19-7 straight up (SU) and 16-8-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 26 games, 14 have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Memphis owns records of 9-17 SU and 11-15 ATS. Contrary to Miami, just over half of Grizzlies games have finished under the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Jimmy Butler (26 points,8.8 rebounds,7.0 assists,1.6 steals) has been fantastic for the Heat while Jaren Jackson Jr. (25 points,1.6 blocks) has contributed greatly to the Grizzlies.
It could be a tough matchup for Memphis on the offensive glass. The Grizzlies are among the league’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 27th in offensive rebounding percentage at 21.1 percent. Meanwhile, Miami ranks third in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.9 percent. Furthermore, the Heat, who rank second in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.239), could earn plenty of trips to the line against the Grizzlies, who rank 27th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.231).
Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies ATS Pick
NBA Prediction: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
On the road, Miami is 7-6-1 ATS with 7 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
At home, Memphis is 6-9 ATS with 8 overs and 7 unders.
In games where they allow less than 100 points, Miami is 4-1.
When scoring above 100 points, the Heat are 19-3 and the Grizzlies are 9-12.
Miami ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Memphis ranks 25th (5.8).
The Grizzlies rank fourth in fast break points per game (16.3) while the Heat rank 25th (11.3).
Miami ranks 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.9) while Memphis ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (20.5).
The Grizzlies rank third in points in the paint per game (53.2) while the Heat rank 20th (46.4).
Memphis ranks third in assists per game (26.5) while Miami ranks 18th in assists allowed per game (24.2).
The Grizzlies rank sixth in steals per game (8.4) while the Heat rank 20th in steals allowed per game (8.1).
Miami ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (41.4) while Memphis ranks 15th (45.6).
The Heat rank 16th in three pointers attempted per game (33.3) while the Grizzlies rank 25th in three pointers allowed per game (35.0).
Miami averages 12.3 second chance points per game, which ranks 22nd in the NBA. Memphis ranks 24th in second chance points allowed per game (14.0).
In its last five contests, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Memphis is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.8, up from 5.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 115.8 points per game (5.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.8 points per game (1.4 below their season average).
