The Miami Heat wraps up an exhausting seven-game road trip on Monday night, taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder for the second and final time this regular season. Back on January 4, the Heat thrashed off OKC as 9-point home favorites, 118-90, and they opened as 4-point favorites for Monday’s clash at Chesapeake Energy Arena, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami misses Goran Dragic (ankle), Meyers Leonard (shoulder), and Avery Bradley (calf), while Tyler Herro (hip) is listed as questionable. On the other side, the Thunder are without George Hill (thumb), so let’s see what can we expect from these two teams and what’s the best Heat vs. Thunder betting pick for Monday night.
The Heat stunned the Lakers for their second straight win
The Miami Heat (13-17; 11-18-1 ATS) are coming off a huge 96-94 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center, upsetting the reigning champs as 3.5-point road underdogs. It was a proper defensive battle between two injury-depleted teams, and the Heat controlled the game for all 48 minutes, holding off the Lakers down the stretch.
Miami held Los Angeles to just 39.3% shooting from the field. Kendrick Nunn led the way for the Heat with 27 points on 10-for-14 shooting from the field, while Jimmy Butler added 24 points, eight rebounds, and five assists.
The Heat are trying their best to improve defensively. They allow 110.3 points per 100 possessions (8th in the NBA) on 44.8% shooting from the field (4th) and 36.8% from downtown (16th). Miami scores only 107.1 points in a return (25th), so Erik Spoelstra’s boys will have to work hard to get better on both sides of the floor.
The Thunder stopped a three-game slide with a nice win in Cleveland
The Oklahoma City Thunder (12-18; 16-13-1 ATS) have just closed down a three-game road trip with a 117-101 victory at the Cleveland Cavaliers as 3-point favorites. They put an end to a three-game losing streak, too, thanks to a good offensive performance against one of the worst teams in the league at the moment.
OKC made 54.4% of its field goals and 46.4% of its triples, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 31 points and nine assists. Al Horford had 16 points and eight rebounds, and Hamidou Diallo added 15 points off the bench.
The Thunder have struggled offensively for most of the season, posting the worst offensive rating in the league (104.6 points per 100 possessions). They rank 26th in field goal percentage (44.7%) and 27th in 3-point percentage (34.2%). On the other side of the ball, OKC yields 110.6 points per 100 possessions (12th) on 46.1% shooting from the field (13th).
- 3-1 ATS in the last four games against the Thunder
- 1-3 ATS in the last four games overall
Miami is still having problems with injuries, but the Heat at least can count on Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Kendrick Nunn will be very busy if Tyler Herro hits the sidelines Monday in Oklahoma, but the Heat should have enough firepower to see off the Thunder’s challenge anyway.
As I’ve mentioned above, OKC is struggling offensively, so I’m expecting the Heat to put on another good defensive performance after that big win over the Lakers. We should see a hard-fought clash, so this 4-point spread is still a tricky one.
Pick: Take Miami Heat -4.0 at -110
The Thunder like to play at a fast pace and push the ball in transition. They average 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes but considering their offensive flaws, it’s no strange that the under is 5-1 in OKC’s last six games overall.
On the other side, Miami tallies 98.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and I expect the heat to slow things even more, considering how long they’ve been on the road. The under is 6-4 in Miami’s last ten outings.
Pick: Go under 211.5 points at -110