It will be a battle between Southwest Division opponents when the Houston Rockets (37-20) welcome the Memphis Grizzlies (28-29) to the Toyota Center. The game will air on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 26, 2020.
Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets ATS Prediction
The Grizzlies failed to cover as 11.5-point underdogs in their 124-97 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers in their last outing. The combined points for the game (221) were under the projected point total of 235. Los Angeles made 16 of their 37 three pointers (43.2 percent), while Memphis was 7-27 (25.9 percent). Gorgui Dieng played well for Memphis, recording 14 points and 10 rebounds.
In the Rockets’ last game, they defeated the New York Knicks, 123-112, but failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (235) finished over the projected point total of 227. The Rockets forced 17 turnovers and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.593 (above their season average of 0.538). James Harden was the top scorer from either team with 37 points on 14-for-25 shooting from the field.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Grizzlies won the most recent matchup 121-110, covering as 6-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 231 points, which was 7.5 points below the projected point total of 238.5 points. The Grizzlies’ 6.6 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Rockets, who had a mark of 13.4. Ja Morant was a top performer in the victory, with 26 points, eight assists and five rebounds.
Memphis holds records of 28-29 straight up (SU) and 30-26-1 against the spread (ATS). Of the Grizzlies’ 57 games, 29 have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Houston owns records of 37-20 SU and 29-28 ATS. Vegas tends to set the total high when the Rockets are involved, as 32 of their 57 games have ended under the O/U total.
The physical Houston offense might be living from the foul line in this battle. The Rockets currently rank third in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.227, while Memphis is among the NBA’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 24th-ranked FTA rate of 0.220).
Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets Odds Pick
Free NBA Tip: ATS Winner – Grizzlies, O/U – Under
Memphis is 13-14-1 ATS on the road with 14 overs and 14 unders.
At home, Houston is 14-14 ATS with 14 overs and 14 unders.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Memphis is 4-0 and Houston is 3-0.
In games where they score above 100 points, the Rockets are 37-17 and the Grizzlies are 27-22.
Memphis ranks first in assists per game (27.1) while Houston ranks 28th (21.5).
The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (44.1) while the Grizzlies rank 25th (30.7).
Memphis averages 17.7 fast break points per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Houston ranks 28th in fast break points allowed per game (15.6).
The Grizzlies average 57.0 points in the paint per game, which ranks first in the league. The Rockets rank 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (51.6).
Houston ranks sixth in points off turnovers (18.4 per game) while Memphis ranks 27th in points off turnovers allowed (18.5 per game).
The Grizzlies rank eighth in rebounds per game (46.0) while the Rockets rank 26th in rebounds allowed per game (46.8).
Memphis averages 13.5 second chance points per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Houston ranks 24th in second chance points allowed per game (13.9).
The Rockets average 8.4 steals per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Grizzlies rank 18th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
Memphis averages 5.7 blocks per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Houston ranks 15th in blocks allowed per game (5.1).
Over its last five games, Memphis is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Houston is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Grizzlies’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.8, up from 2.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 121.4 points per game (2.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.2 points per game (5.0 below their season average).