Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-120/-110).
Pros
- Luka Doncic has averaged 33.8 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 100th percentile.
- Relative to last year’s 8.2 clip, Luka Doncic’s 3-point attempts have spiked this year to 10.3 per game.
- Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic comes in at the 99th percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 37.5 minutes per game this year.
- The Dallas Mavericks check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games on the road.
- The 4th-speediest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Mavericks.
Cons
- The matchup against Houston is a challenging one; when the Rockets are at home, they have allowed the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to the other team’s starting PGs over the last 10 games (12.8).
- The Dallas Mavericks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
- Luka Doncic has attempted a mere 8.9 foul shots per game this year, significantly lower than his 10.5 rate last year.
- Over the last 10 games when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team’s starting PGs have attempted 1.7 foul shots per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Rockets, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.
- Luka Doncic will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court tends to worsen stat production in all stat categories.
Prop Projection: Luka Doncic is projected for 33.6 Points
