The Denver Nuggets (38-16) challenge the Los Angeles Lakers (40-12) at the Pepsi Center. The game starts at 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 12, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The Lakers come in on a high note after easily covering the 13.5-point spread against the Phoenix Suns in their last matchup, 125-100. The game’s total points (225) finished under the projected point total of 230.5. Los Angeles out-rebounded Phoenix. The Lakers had more offensive rebounds (16 vs. three), defensive rebounds (43 vs. 26) and total rebounds (59 vs. 29). With 25 points on 9-for-17 shooting, Anthony Davis was the game’s leading scorer.
The last time the Nuggets played, they beat the San Antonio Spurs, 127-120, covering as 6.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (247) finished well over the O/U total of 216. Denver’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over San Antonio. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.675 (above their season average of 0.522), while the Spurs posted a mark of 0.576. With 19 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds, Denver’s Nikola Jokic played well.
Los Angeles should have the edge on the offensive side of the ball. The Lakers currently rank third in effective field goal percentage (0.551), while Denver ranks 14th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.521).
Los Angeles holds records of 40-12 straight up (SU) and 27-24-1 against the spread (ATS). There does not appear to be a trend for Lakers games in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 38-16 SU and 25-23-6 ATS. Of the Nuggets’ 54 games, 30 have finished under the projected point total.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Nuggets won the most recent matchup 128-104, covering as 3-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 232 points, which was 23.5 points above the projected point total of 208.5 points. The Nuggets had a much better turnover percentage (7.1 vs. 17.0) and had a much better free throw rate (0.293 vs. 0.193). Davis played a big role with 32 points and 11 rebounds.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Odds Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
On the road, Los Angeles is 14-13 ATS with 15 overs and 12 unders.
At home, Denver is 12-12-3 ATS with 16 unders and 11 overs.
Both teams are strong when holding the opposition to less than 100 points, as Los Angeles is 15-0 and Denver is 13-1.
The Lakers are 36-11 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 35-11.
Denver ranks eighth in fast break points allowed per game (12.5) while Los Angeles ranks 29th (16.3).
The Lakers average 26.3 assists per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Nuggets rank 21st in assists allowed per game (24.7).
Los Angeles ranks second in points in the paint per game (53.5) while Denver ranks 18th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.1).
The Lakers rank first in blocks per game (6.9) while the Nuggets rank 16th (4.8).
Denver ranks 10th in steals per game (8.0) while Los Angeles ranks 24th in steals allowed per game (8.2).
The Lakers rank third in points off turnovers per game (18.7) while the Nuggets rank 15th (16.6).
Los Angeles ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while Denver ranks sixth (43.2).
The Lakers rank first in second chance points per game (15.0) while the Nuggets rank fifth in second chance points allowed per game (12.0).
Los Angeles ranks 24th in three pointers attempted per game (30.9) while Denver ranks 26th (30.7).
Over its last five contests, Los Angeles is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Lakers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 12.6, up from 7.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 118.4 points per game (8.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.0 points per game (3.6 above their season average).