The Los Angeles Lakers (22-3) will attempt to extend their five-game winning streak against the Miami Heat (18-6) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, December 13, 2019, and will air on ESPN.
Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat Free Prediction
The Lakers come in on a high note after covering the 8.5-point spread against the Orlando Magic in their last matchup, 96-87. The game’s combined points (183) came in well under the projected point total of 210.5. The Lakers held the Magic to an offensive rebounding percentage of 17.8 (below their season average of 22.9) and had a better turnover percentage (12.0 vs. 13.7). Los Angeles rallied around LeBron James, who recorded his fifth triple-double of the season. He dominated, registering 25 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
In the Heat’s previous game, they beat the Atlanta Hawks, 135-121, covering as 8.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (256) came in well over the projected point total of 218.5. The Heat held the Hawks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.3 (below their season average of 23.4). The Hawks had a free throw rate of 0.116 (below their season average of 0.198). With 30 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists, Bam Adebayo led the way for Miami with his zeroth triple-double of the season.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Anthony Davis scored a game-high 26 points and the Lakers defeated the Heat 95-80, covering as 8.5-point favorites. He also recorded eight rebounds and seven assists. The game finished with a total of 175 points, which was 43.5 points below the projected point total of 218.5 points. The Lakers’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over the Heat. Los Angeles had a rate of 25.6, while Miami posted a mark of 17.4.
Los Angeles comes into the contest with records of 22-3 straight up (SU) and 16-9 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Lakers tend to finish under the projected point total (56.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 18-6 SU and 14-8-2 ATS. Contrary to Los Angeles, games featuring the Heat have gone over the projected point total 50.0 percent of the time.
This showdown pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Miami currently ranks third in effective field goal percentage (0.550) and Los Angeles is fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.500).
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat Betting Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
Los Angeles is 8-5 ATS on the road with 7 unders and 6 overs.
At home, Miami is 8-2-1 ATS with 7 overs and 4 unders.
Miami is 4-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Los Angeles is 9-0.
The Lakers are 18-3 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 18-2.
Los Angeles ranks second in steals per game (8.8) while Miami ranks 25th in steals allowed per game (8.4).
The Lakers rank seventh in points off turnovers per game (18.8) while the Heat rank 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.8).
Los Angeles ranks third in fast break points per game (18.0) while Miami ranks 23rd (10.8).
The Lakers rank first in blocks per game (7.0) while the Heat rank 20th (4.5).
Los Angeles ranks second in points in the paint per game (53.2) while Miami ranks 21st (46.4).
The Lakers rank 11th in three pointers allowed per game (33.0) while the Heat rank 28th (37.7).
Los Angeles ranks third in second chance points per game (15.2) while Miami ranks 17th (12.7).
The Lakers rank fourth in assists per game (26.4) while the Heat rank 13th in assists allowed per game (23.8).
Miami is second in the NBA with 40.8 rebounds allowed per game while Los Angeles is third with 41.6 rebounds allowed per game.
In its last five contests, Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Lakers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 16.6, up from 9.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 114.2 points per game (2.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.2 points per game (4.0 above their season average).
