Offense meets defense when the Dallas Mavericks (23-14) welcome the Los Angeles Lakers (30-7) to American Airlines Center. The game starts at 9:45 p.m. ET on Friday, January 10, 2020.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
The Lakers come in on a high note after easily covering the 13.5-point spread against the New York Knicks in their last outing, 117-87. The game’s total points (204) were well under the O/U total of 223.5. One of Los Angeles’ largest strengths was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 18-21 (85.7 percent), while the Knicks were just 9-16 (56.3 percent). With 31 points on 9-for-19 shooting, LeBron James was the game’s high scorer.
In the Mavericks’ previous matchup, they lost a tough one to the Denver Nuggets, 107-106, despite being 4.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (213) finished under the O/U total of 223.5. Denver’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Dallas. The Nuggets had a rate of 22.0 (below their season average of 24.9), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 17.1 (below their season average of 24.3). With 27 points on 11-for-24 shooting, Luka Doncic was Dallas’ high scorer.
The game should be a matchup of strength against strength as the productive offense of Dallas (first in the league with an offensive efficiency of 114.5) takes on the elite defense of Los Angeles (third in the league with a defensive efficiency of 102.5).
Los Angeles comes into the contest with records of 30-7 straight up (SU) and 19-17-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Lakers are involved, as 22 of their 37 contests have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Dallas is 23-14 SU and 21-16 ATS. Contrary to Los Angeles, Mavericks games tend to go over the O/U total (62.2 percent).
The Lakers lead the season series against the Mavericks two games to one, including a 13-point victory the last time these teams met. Los Angeles covered as a 5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 203 points, which was 21 points below the projected point total of 224 points. The Lakers knocked down 23 of their 28 free throws (82.1 percent) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.545 vs. 0.433). James recorded a double-double with 13 points and 13 assists.
Lakers vs. Mavericks Free Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Lakers, O/U – Under
Los Angeles is 9-9 ATS on the road with 10 unders and 8 overs.
Dallas is 8-12 ATS at home with 12 overs and 8 unders.
Dallas is 5-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Los Angeles is 13-0.
The Lakers are 26-7 when they reach 100 points, while the Mavericks are 23-12.
Los Angeles averages 18.1 fast break points per game, which ranks second in the NBA. Dallas ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (16.1).
The Lakers rank third in steals per game (8.7) while the Mavericks rank 27th (6.6).
Los Angeles ranks second in points in the paint per game (53.1) while Dallas ranks 24th (44.6).
The Mavericks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (41.4) while the Lakers rank 23rd (30.5).
Los Angeles ranks fifth in points off turnovers per game (18.3) while Dallas ranks 26th (15.7).
The Lakers rank first in blocks per game (7.5) while the Mavericks rank 19th (4.7).
Los Angeles ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while Dallas ranks 15th (45.4).
The Lakers rank fifth in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while the Mavericks rank 14th (13.1).
Los Angeles ranks fifth in assists per game (26.1) while Dallas ranks 13th (24.6).
In its last five contests, Los Angeles is 2-2-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Lakers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 14.0, up from 7.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 113.6 points per game (2.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 111.4 points per game (2.2 above their season average).