Week 4 of the 2020-21 NBA season starts Monday, January 11, so I’ve prepared the best betting pick for the interconference showdown at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California, where the Kings welcome the Indiana Pacers.
The hosts opened as slight underdogs, according to BetAmerica Sportsbook, and we can expect to see a very interesting game between two playoff contenders. The Pacers will miss T.J. Warren, Jeremy Lamb, and Goga Bitadze due to injuries, while the Kings are without Jabari Parker (medical protocols).
Indiana hits the road after a tough loss to Phoenix
The Indiana Pacers (6-3; 6-3 ATS) snapped a two-game win streak with a 125-117 home loss to the Phoenix Suns this past Saturday. Domantas Sabonis had another huge game, recording a double-double of 28 points and 22 rebounds, but the Pacers were awful on the defensive end, allowing a whopping 69 second-half points.
Sabonis leads the way for Indiana this season, averaging 21.6 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists. Malcolm Brogdon notches 23.4 points and 7.2 assists per game, while Victor Oladipo adds 19.9 points and 6.0 boards a night.
The Pacers are eighth in the league in points scored per 100 possessions (113.4) and 13th in points allowed per 100 possessions (108.4). They shoot 48.9% from the field (3rd in the NBA) while handing out 26.4 assists per game (6th).
The Kings lost two straight by 20 or more points
After a promising start of the season and three wins out of their first four games, the Sacramento Kings (4-6; 4-6 ATS) have dropped five of their last six contests including the previous two. The Kings are coming off a heavy 125-99 home defeat to the Portland Trail Blazers this past Saturday.
Sacramento failed to surpass a 100-point mark for the second time this term. The Kings shot only 40.7% from the field and 26.7% from beyond the arc, but they also played some poor defense, forcing just eight turnovers and allowing 26 assists to the Trail Blazers.
Six Sacramento players average points in double figures including rookie guard Tyrese Haliburton (12.1 PPG, 5.5 APG). De’Aaron Fox tallies 18.0 points and 5.0 assists per game, while Buddy Hield scores just 14.4 points a night on a horrible 34.8% shooting from the field.
The Kings have the 18th-best offensive rating in the league, posting 109.6 points per 100 possessions. However, their defensive rating of 118.0 is the second-worst in the NBA.
Trends:Indiana:
- 6-3 ATS in nine games this season
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games against Western Conference
Sacramento:
- 0-5 ATS in the last five games overall
- 1-4 ATS in the last five home contests
The Winner Prediction
The Kings have surrendered 269 points over their last two showings, and I expect the Pacers to pile up on their misery. Indiana executes offensively at a high level and loves to share the ball, while the Pacers’ defense should be able to cope with the Kings.
Of course, it won’t be an easy job, as the Kings will be fired up to stop their skid. Still, the Pacers have had the Kings’ number over the last few years. Indiana is 6-1 straight up and 4-3 ATS in its last seven matchups with Sacramento, so if you’re satisfied with -160, take the Pacers at the moneyline odds.
Pick: Take Indiana -3.5 at -110
The Total:
Both Sacramento and Indiana average above 100 possessions per 48 minutes and prefer to play at a steady pace. I would be surprised by the eventual low-scoring affair, but 230 points in total seem too much for Monday’s clash.
I expect to see a much better defensive job by both teams after they surrendered 125 points each last time out. The under is 7-3 in the last ten encounters between the Pacers and Kings, and none of those ten contests produced 230 or more points in total.
Pick: Go under 229.5 points at -110
