The Milwaukee Bucks (52-9) welcome the Indiana Pacers (37-24) to Fiserv Forum as they try to extend their five-game home winning streak. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Milwaukee opened as a 10-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 221.5 points on the DraftKings Indiana Sports betting app.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction
The Pacers come in on a high note after covering the 2-point spread against the San Antonio Spurs in their last game, 116-111. The game’s combined points (227) finished over the projected point total of 220. The Pacers held the Spurs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.1 (below their season average of 20.2) and had a free throw rate of 0.299 (above their season average of 0.170). Indiana was lifted by Malcolm Brogdon, who was the game’s high scorer with 26 points on 8-for-15 shooting.
In the Bucks’ last game, they fell to the Miami Heat, 105-89, despite being 4.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (194) were well under the projected point total of 227.5. Miami’s turnover percentage was the team’s largest advantage over Milwaukee. The Heat had a rate of 8.7 (stronger than their season average of 12.6), while the Bucks posted a mark of 12.1. With 13 points and 15 rebounds, Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo had a solid performance.
It will be a battle of contrasting tempos as the up-tempo Bucks will look to push the slower-paced Pacers. The Bucks rank second in possessions per game while the Pacers are 27th. Ball security should be an advantage for the Pacers. They rank 5th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.4 percent), while the Bucks force the sixth-fewest turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 12.8 percent).
Indiana holds records of 37-24 straight up (SU) and 31-27-3 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Pacers’ games have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 52-9 SU and 35-26 ATS. In opposition of Indiana, Bucks games have a slight tendency to go under the total (52.5 percent).
The Bucks have won two out of three against the Pacers this season, but fell short the last time these two teams met, 118-111. Milwaukee covered as a 2-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 229 points, which was just 5 points above the projected point total of 224 points. Indiana’s 0.576 effective field goal percentage was its biggest strength over Milwaukee, who had a rate of 0.478. T.J. Warren scored a game-high 35 points.
Pacers at Bucks Pick
Free Pick: ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
On the road, Indiana is 17-12-1 ATS with 16 overs and 14 unders.
Milwaukee is 18-12 ATS at home with 15 overs and 15 unders.
Both teams are strong when holding the opposition to less than 100 points, as Milwaukee is 16-0 and Indiana is 11-2.
The Pacers are 37-15 when they reach the century mark, while the Bucks are 51-8.
Milwaukee ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (38.3) while Indiana ranks last (27.7).
The Bucks rank first in rebounds per game (52.1) while the Pacers rank 25th (42.8).
Milwaukee ranks third in fast break points per game (18.5) while Indiana ranks 19th (12.6).
The Bucks rank second in second chance points allowed per game (11.3) while the Pacers rank 16th (13.1).
Milwaukee ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (38.5) while Indiana ranks 13th (47.6).
The Bucks rank second in blocks per game (6.2) while the Pacers rank 13th (5.1).
Indiana ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.7) while Milwaukee ranks 12th (7.2).
The Pacers rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while the Bucks rank ninth (16.0).
Indiana ranks fifth in assists per game (26.1) while Milwaukee ranks 10th in assists allowed per game (23.7).
In its last five outings, Indiana is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Milwaukee is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Pacers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.6, up from 2.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 112.0 points per game (7.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 101.4 points per game (5.4 below their season average).