The Denver Nuggets (41-19) go head-to-head against the Golden State Warriors (13-48) at the Pepsi Center. The game can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 3, 2020.
Denver opened as a 15-point favorite at Borgata Sportsbook, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 216.5 points.
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
In the Warriors’ last game, they were beaten by the Washington Wizards, 124-110, and failed to cover as 7-point underdogs. The total points for the game (234) finished just over the O/U total of 233. Washington was effective at getting and making free throws. The Wizards made 24 of their 27 free throws (88.9 percent), while the Warriors were 17-24 (70.8 percent). Andrew Wiggins was Golden State’s leading scorer with 27 points on 9-for-19 shooting.
The Nuggets defeated the Toronto Raptors in their last contest, 133-118, easily covering as 2-point favorites. The game’s total points (251) finished well over the projected point total of 220. Denver’s 0.675 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Toronto, who had a mark of 0.517. The Nuggets’ mark was above their season average of 0.529. With 23 points, 18 rebounds and 11 assists, Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver with his 11th triple-double this season.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Will Barton scored a game-high 31 points and the Nuggets defeated the Warriors 134-131, resulting in a push. He also had seven assists and five rebounds. The game finished with a total of 265 points, which was 51.5 points above the projected point total of 213.5 points. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (31.9 vs. 19.6). Golden State, on the other hand, did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (27-31; 87.1 percent).
Golden State holds records of 13-48 straight up (SU) and 27-33-1 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Warriors tend to go under the projected point total (55.7 percent).
Denver has a respectable 41-19 SU record, but they are just 27-27-6 ATS. Just over half of Nuggets games have also finished under the total.
Denver could own the offensive glass in this contest. The Nuggets are among the league’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking third in offensive rebounding percentage at 24.8 percent. Meanwhile, Golden State ranks 22nd in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 76.5 percent.
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets Betting Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Under
On the road, Golden State is 16-14 ATS with 16 unders and 14 overs.
Denver is 14-14-3 ATS at home with 16 unders and 15 overs.
Golden State is 6-2 when they allow less than 100 points, while Denver is 14-1.
The Nuggets are 38-14 when they reach 100 points, while the Warriors are 13-31.
Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (26.6) while Golden State ranks 28th in assists allowed per game (26.1).
The Nuggets rank fifth in points in the paint per game (49.7) while the Warriors rank 28th (43.7).
Denver ranks sixth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.0) while Golden State ranks 26th (18.1).
The Nuggets rank sixth in second chance points per game (14.2) while the Warriors rank 25th (12.1).
Denver ranks ninth in fast break points allowed per game (12.5) while Golden State ranks 25th (15.0).
The Nuggets rank 10th in steals per game (8.1) while the Warriors rank 24th in steals allowed per game (8.4).
Denver averages 44.4 rebounds per game, which ranks 19th in the league. Golden State ranks 23rd in rebounds allowed per game (46.6).
The Warriors rank 25th in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while the Nuggets rank 26th (30.3).
Over its last five contests, Golden State is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Warriors’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 12.0, up from 9.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 116.0 points per game (5.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.4 points per game (8.0 above their season average).