The Dallas Mavericks (8-5) clash against the Golden State Warriors (3-12) at the American Airlines Center. The game can be seen on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 20, 2019.
Dallas opened as a 13.5-point favorite at PointsBet, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 221.5 points.
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks Betting Prediction
The Warriors will be hoping for similar success after thoroughly outplaying the Memphis Grizzlies in their last outing, 114-95, as 3.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (209) were well under the O/U total of 226. The Warriors held the Grizzlies to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.9 (below their season average of 22.0). The Grizzlies had a free throw rate of 0.159 (below the 0.191 mark opponents have averaged against Golden State this season). With 29 points on 9-for-15 shooting, Alec Burks was the top scorer from either team.
In the Mavericks’ last game, they beat the San Antonio Spurs, 117-110, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (227) were just over the O/U total of 224.5. Dallas’ free throw rate was their biggest advantage over San Antonio. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.190 (below their season average of 0.227), while the Spurs posted a mark of 0.146 (below their season average of 0.217). With 42 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds, Luka Doncic led the way for Dallas with his fifth triple-double of the year.
Dallas could dominate on the offensive side of the ball as their high-powered offense goes up against one of the league’s worst defenses. The Mavericks currently rank first in offensive efficiency, while Golden State ranks 29th in defensive efficiency. Additionally, the Warriors, who rank fifth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.233), will go head-to-head against the Mavericks, who rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.161).
Golden State heads into the contest with records of 3-12 straight up (SU) and 5-9 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total low when the Warriors are involved, as 57.1 percent of their games have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Dallas is 8-5 SU and 6-7 ATS. Games featuring the Mavericks also tend to finish over the O/U total (61.5 percent).
After splitting four games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last game, the Mavericks won 126-91. The Mavericks had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.657 vs. 0.422) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.2 vs. 16.3).
Warriors at Mavericks ATS Pick
Free Pick: O/U – Over
Golden State is 3-4 ATS on the road with 4 overs and 3 unders.
Dallas is 2-5 ATS at home with 4 overs and 3 unders.
Golden State is 1-1 when they allow under 100 points.
When scoring over 100 points, the Warriors are 3-9 and the Mavericks are 8-5.
Dallas averages 15.1 second chance points per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Golden State ranks 26th in second chance points allowed per game (15.7).
The Mavericks rank third in three pointers attempted per game (39.6) while the Warriors rank 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (34.7).
Dallas ranks third in rebounds per game (47.5) while Golden State ranks 19th (44.7).
The Mavericks rank 11th in assists allowed per game (23.1) while the Warriors rank 27th (26.6).
Dallas ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Golden State ranks 15th (5.1).
The Mavericks rank 13th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.5) while the Warriors rank 25th (51.9).
Golden State ranks 18th in steals per game (7.5) while Dallas ranks 26th (5.7).
The Warriors average 13.7 fast break points per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 19th in fast break points allowed per game (13.8).
Golden State ranks 12th in points off turnovers per game (18.5) while Dallas ranks 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.2).
In its last five games, Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Warriors’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.8, down from 8.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 114.8 points per game (0.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.2 points per game (0.4 above their season average).