We moved to 42-37 on the season last night and now have a bit of a tough slate of games ahead of us with a couple of make-up games on the ledger as we head into the All-Star break. Just one play today.
Detroit at New York: The Knicks opened 6.5 and the line is still there, while the total has moved from 210.5 to 208.5 even though we’ve seen a few more over wagers come in on the game. Might be going to the well one too many times, but will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one. We had the under when these two met a couple of nights ago and it was a 109-90 final score with a total of 209.5 and really didn’t see anything that would change my mind regarding a different outcome. The Pistons struggled from the field, which is evident in their 90 point performance, while New York had a good shooting night, going 51.2% from the field and 50% on three-pointers. The Knicks only attempted 10 free throws the entire game, but Detroit shot 31 foul shots, which makes up for the limited number that New York attempted.
Sacramento at Portland: The Blazers are favored by 4.5 and the total is at 237 in a game where I’d love to take the under, but not going to be able to pull the trigger due to the situation both teams find themselves in tonight. This season teams playing with no rest are 10-2 in totals when the number is 235 or higher, which makes a bit of sense, as teams figure to be a little tired and many times it’s a team’s defense that suffers more than the offense. Teams were 14-7 in totals last year, although that does include a few of the bubble games when defense was optional for a number of teams and 11-7 the season prior to that, so just going to stay clear of this one.
3/3/21
Was done in by garbage time with the Milwaukee total last night, falling to 40-37 on the season. Garbage time hasn’t been good to us this year, losing a few under plays with 65-point fourth quarters when a game is out of hand, while last night it was the opposite and we got a 46-point fourth quarter, with the Bucks scoring all of 17 points.
Atlanta at Orlando: Big move on the total in this one, as the number opened at 224 and is now all the way down to 220 even though we’ve seen close to an equal number of bets on the over and the under. The Hawks opened 4.5 and the line has dropped to 3.5 even with Atlanta getting more than two-thirds of the early wagers in the game. The two teams haven’t played this year. The Hawks are off an upset win against the Heat and have gone just 1-5 ATS this season after a win as an underdog.
Utah at Philadelphia: Solid game here with the Jazz being favored by 3.5 and the total has climbed a half-point to 228, which is likely a result of the 134-123 Jazz win a couple of weeks ago. The 76ers are 15-3 at home this season, having somehow managed to lose to the Cavs two games ago when I had the 76ers, but will come back with them in this one in a revenge role.
Golden State at Portland: The Warriors are now favored by 2 and Golden State thumped the Blazers pretty good when they played two weeks ago. The Warriors are still just 7-10 on the road, while the Blazers are 9-6 at home, so not so sure the correct team is favored here. Going to take a shot on Portland as a small home dog in this one.
3/2/21
Kind of a tough slate of games for this Tuesday, as one game has been postponed and the Spurs are pretty short-handed with three or four players in quarantine, so will do the best we can here. Dropped a tough one last night, seeing the Bulls intentionally foul with 1.9 seconds remaining. Denver made both foul shots and we came up 1.5 points shy to fall to 40-36 on the season. Will just look at a couple of games tonight.
Denver at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 7 and the total just dropped to 234.5, but going to go against the grain here and take a shot on the over. The Nuggets are just 7-11 ATS following a win, but have gone 11-7 in totals after a victory, while the Bucks are just 10-10 against the spread after a win but 13-6-1 in totals. The Nuggets have gone 7-2 in totals this season when the number is at least 230, while the Bucks are 14-4 when the total is at least 230. Finally, teams playing with no rest are 26-18 (59.1%) in totals this season and 14-6 if they happened to win the previous game. The number is a little higher than I was hoping for, but will follow the trends here and see how it plays out.
Clippers at Boston: The Clippers are favored by 4 and the total here is 220. Los Angeles is in a revenge spot, having lost to the Celtics at home back on Feb. 5 in a game they looked to have comfortably in hand, leading 62-51 at halftime, only to see things fall apart for them in the second half. The Clippers are 4-2 ATS revenging a home loss this season, although the Celtics have been decent as a home dog, going 2-1 ATS and the Celtics are 10-5 ATS at home on the season. The Clippers have gone 8-3 against the spread after a loss this season and they are coming off a tough game against the Bucks. The Celtics are 6-10 against the number after a win. The Celtics are coming off a 1-point win and teams are 13-8 ATS after a one-point victory, which is a little higher than I expected. Tough game to play, but a decent one to have on the television.
3/1/21
Won here last night to move to 40-35 on the season, but still an ugly 1-2 night overall, giving us two straight 1-2 days, so need to get things turned around a little bit. Small slate of games and nothing too terribly exciting
Dallas at Orlando: The Mavericks opened 6.5 and the line is still holding steady with Dallas getting roughly two-thirds of the early wagers in the game. The Mavs are 7-9 ATS after a loss, but have covered three of their last four games in that role, as the team’s earlier losing streak took its toll on their record. The total here has nosedived from 226.5 to 221, which has taken the value out of the under here.
Denver at Chicago: The Nuggets opened as 6-point favorites and the line has dropped down to 4.5 with the betting being much split in terms of the number of wagers on each team, while the total has dropped slightly from 228.5 to 227. The Bulls lost to the Suns the last time they took the court and Chicago has been pretty solid bouncing back after a setback, going 11-5 against the spread. The Nuggets have been a bit the opposite, going 6-11 ATS after a win and 1-6 ATS when they won their last game by 15 or more. Going to take a shot on the Bulls as a home underdog and take the 4.5 points.
Brooklyn at San Antonio: The Nets opened 3.5 and the line has been bet up to 5, as close to 60% of the wagers have come in on the Nets. Brooklyn has gone just 4-8 against the spread after a loss and are 6-6 straight-up. The Spurs are 9-7 against the number after a win, but have been a little better away from home for the most part this season.
Cleveland at Houston: The Rockets are in a free fall, but at least they get the Cavaliers in this one. Still, the Cavs are getting the majority of the wagers in the game, with the line moving from Houston -4 to Rockets -2.5. This is just the third time the Cavs have been a road underdog of less than three points. Houston. When these teams met five days ago in Cleveland the Rockets were favored by 2.5 on the road.
2/28/21
Coming off an ugly 0-2 night in the NBA and neither game was even close, as the 76ers managed to lose to the Cavaliers once again and Denver shot lights out against the Thunder. We fell to 39-35 on the season. Lines are a bit sketchy on several games, but trying to get this out now, as we’ve already lost a bit of value in the one play I had for the day.
New York at Detroit: The Knicks opened -1.5 and the line is down to 1, while the total has moved from 215 to 213. I have this one at 206 and 210.5 and with New York going 5-11 in totals following a win, going to take a shot on the under in this one.
Clippers at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 1.5 and the total is 235, while I’m split on the totals here, with one projection at 236 and the other at 226.5. The Bucks are 13-5-1 in totals after a victory, while the Clippers have gone 12-11 following a win.
Chicago at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 4 and the total is at 227. I have this one at 221 and 225, although the Bulls have gone 11-5 ATS and in totals after a loss. Chicago averages 118.4 points after a loss and 111.5 points after a win.
Atlanta at Miami: The Heat are favored by 6 and the total has held pretty steady this morning at 221. I have this one at 223 with both methods. The Hawks are 8-10 in totals after a loss, but their last seven have gone over the number following a setback. The Heat are 6-9 in totals after a win, but have gone over in their last two.
Washington at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 6.5 and the total is at 231, where I have it at 230 and 224.5. The Wizards are on a 5-2 totals run and have gone 9-3 in totals after a win for the season. The Celtics are 6-9 in totals after a win and are 1-1 when the total is 230 or higher. Boston’s one under came last month against the Wizards when Boston came away with a 116-107 win in a game that was also played in Boston. The total on that one was 234.5 and the Celtics were also favored by 6.5.
2/27/21
We moved to 39-33 in the NBA on Friday and now have a little bit smaller slate for Saturday. There really aren’t any real marquee games on the schedule.
Denver at Oklahoma City: The Nuggets opened 7 and the line has stayed there with Denver getting close to 65% of the early wagers in the game, while the total has dropped a couple of points to 222.5. The Nuggets have won the first two meetings between the two teams, and are starting a road trip. The Thunder have been playing better as of late and I have this one 107-107, so going to take a shot on the Thunder +7. My other totals method has this one at 225, so will just stay clear of the total in this one.
New Orleans at San Antonio: The Pelicans opened -4 and the line has moved to 3.5 while the total has inched up slightly to 229 after opening at 228.5. I have New Orleans winning this one 122-116, although the other totals method is calling for 226 points.
Cleveland at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 10.5 with a total of 223.5, while I have the 76ers cruising to a 121-102 victory. The other method is calling for 221.5 points to be scored. The 76ers have lost to the Cavs by double-digits the last two times the teams have played, which could be enough to motivate them a bit in what is otherwise a bit of a tough spot. The Sixers are coming off a pair of games against Toronto and then defeated the Mavs and have the Pacers on tap. Tobias Harris is going to miss this one for the 76ers, while the Cavs have several players expected to be out, so going to take a shot on the 76ers. Double-digit home favorites are doing well this season and teams who won their two previous games as home underdogs are 10-19-1 when getting double-digits on the road over the years.
Indiana at New York: The Pacers opened 1 and the game is now even, while I have the Knicks winning 111-104. The total here is 218.5 and I have a projection of 219.5 with the other method. The Knicks are attracting a fair amount of wagers in this one.
Dallas at Brooklyn: The Nets look to be settling in as 4-point favorites and the total has dropped a little bit, moving from 239 to 237. Looking at most recent stats, I have Brooklyn rolling to a 131-121 victory, although the other method is calling for just 227.5 points, so will stay away from this one and see how things play out.
2/26/21
Dropped the NBA play on the Bucks last night to fall to 38-33 on the season. So far this season, home teams have won 54.1% of the game played, which is lower than we saw in 2018 (59.1%) and 2017 (58.7%), so the lack of fans is having a bit of an impact.
Phoenix at Chicago: The Suns are favored by 6.5 and the total here is 226. I have the Suns winning 114-111, using the past eight games as a statistical base, while the total has stayed pretty consistent with the vast majority of wagers on the over. Going to take a shot on the under in this one, as both teams are in slight under situations.
Indiana at Boston: The Celtics have moved from -4 to 2.5 even after getting 70% of the wagers in the game. I have this one 111-111, so a bit of an edge to the Pacers in this one.
Houston at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 8.5 and the total is 221, while I have Toronto cruising to a 117-102 victory. The public is on the Raptors pretty good, so no real interest in taking a stand on this one.
LA Clippers at Memphis: The Clippers have moved from 5.5 to 6.5 after getting thumped by the Grizzlies last night. As expected, the Clippers are getting the majority of the wagers in the game. I have the Grizzlies staying within the number, although that doesn’t account for the revenge factor.
Atlanta at Oklahoma City: The Hawks are favored by 5 with a total of 226 and I have the Thunder pulling out a 111-109 victory. Another totals method has this one at 226.5, so no real edge on the total, while the numbers do like Oklahoma City.
Portland at Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 5.5 with a total of 221.5 and I have Los Angeles winning 114-111. The other totals method is calling for even more points, although they don’t account for the injury situation in this one.
Charlotte at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 5.5 and the total is 232.5, while I have Golden State getting the cover by a few and am on both sides of the total, with one calling for the over and the other method calling for an under in this one.
2/25/21
We moved to 38-32 on the season Wednesday and now have a short slate of games on tap for tonight.
New Orleans at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 9 in this one and the total has climbed to 242.5, but think this is a decent spot for Milwaukee, who appears to have gotten its act together the last few games. After dropping a pair of home games against the Raptors, the Bucks have won and covered their last three all by 13 points. The Bucks fell to New Orleans last month 131-126 as 6.5-point road favorites. New Orleans is 2-7-1 ATS after scoring more than 120 points, while also going 9-0-1 in totals, but will stick to the side here and try the Bucks.
Clippers at Memphis: The Clippers have been bet up from 7.5 to 8 and the total has dropped from 228 to 225 after seeing the betting pretty much split on the total, which is usually an indication of the larger bets coming in on the under. I have it at 223.5, which is a little too close for comfort, but could see this one landing on the under.
Washington at Denver: The Nuggets have moved from 7 to 7.5, while the total has inched upwards to 237.5. The Wizards are 4-1 in totals the last five games, scoring and allowing over 123 points per game. The Nuggets are 5-1 in totals when the number is 230 or higher this season and they did drop a 130-128 decision at Washington earlier this year. While Denver can play defense when they want to, they seem more than happy to play high-scoring games at times.
Orlando at Brooklyn: The Nets have moved from 8.5 to 9.5 after getting more than 75% of the wagers in the game. The total opened at 228 and climbed to 229 or 229.5 and then has turned around and dropped back down to 228.
Sacramento at New York: The Knicks are favored by 1.5 and the total on the game is moving upwards, having gone from 223 to 224.5. This is the highest total the Knicks have played to this season, while the Kings are 19-8 in totals this season when the number is 224 or higher.
2/24/21
Good-sized slate of NBA games for Wednesday, with a few decent games and the usual assortment of games that don’t look too appealing. Fell to 37-32 last night when the Bucks’ offense showed up for four quarters.
Lakers at Utah: The Jazz opened 7.5 with a total of 221 and the line has climbed to 9 while the total has dropped to 219 and going to take the under in this one. The Jazz are 2-7-1 in totals when the number is 220 or lower, while the Lakers are 6-9-1. Don’t think the Lakers will want to get into a running contest with Utah while they’re a little short-handed, so think they go back to their more deliberate style of play in this one.
Toronto at Miami: The Heat are favored by 2.5 and the total is bouncing back and forth between 214 and 215.5, having moved several times in the last few minutes. It’s now at 214. This is now a pretty short trip for the Raptors, who will be coming from Tampa, which takes away a little of the home court edge for the Heat. We’ve seen 213 and 182 points the first two times these teams have played this season, so wouldn’t be surprised to see this one land under the number. The Heat have held their last two opponents to 94 points, although that really hasn’t produced much in the way of trends.
Minnesota at Chicago: This one opened Chicago -4.5 and 227.5 and the Bulls are favored by 4 and the total has held steady. The Timberwolves were brutal last defensively last night, but would look for them to bounce back a little bit in this one. Of course, Chicago isn’t Milwaukee offensively, either. Still, Minnesota is 1-3 ATS and 3-1 in totals after allowing more than 130 points, so will just sit this one out and see what transpires.
San Antonio at Oklahoma City: The Thunder have moved from -2 to -1 and the total has dropped from 219 to 216 even though we’re seeing just a few more under bets on the game, so the move is a little bigger than the betting would suggest is warranted. Some injury problems for both teams, so will just stay from this one.
2/23/21
We moved to 37-31 last night when the Heat went under the total and now have a decent-sized slate of games, where the wise guys have taken a few unders.
Minnesota at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 10.5 and the total has moved from 234 to 231 with 55% of the wagers coming in on the over, so going to take a shot on the under in this one. The Timberwolves haven’t been too terribly bad playing defense most of the time this season, as Minnesota allows 114.8 points per game, which is 2.8 points higher than the average. The Timberwolves partially make-up for that by scoring 107.5 points, which is 4.5 points less than the league average. Minnesota has scored less and allowed less over their past five games. The Bucks have been going through the motions lately and no real reason to turn it on here.
Atlanta at Cleveland: The Hawks are favored by 7, as the Cavaliers are in the middle of the worst ATS run sports bettors have seen in year. Cleveland has failed to cover the spread in its last 13 games, making chase system bettors see their bankroll diminish in the process. Not sure if this is the game they break the streak or not, but no interest in taking the Cavs here. The total has dropped down to 226.5 despite seeing a pretty even number of bets on the over and the under. Season-long trends like the under, while most recent trends tend to favor the over in this one.
Sacramento at Brooklyn: The total here is 242 and this is another game where the season-to-date numbers like the under, but the most recent trends are on the over. These two just saw 261 points a week ago, so can’t blame anybody who likes the over here. At some point, the Kings are going to have to realize they’re not good enough to outscore teams, as they’ve averaged 114.8 points their last five games and lost all five.
Washington at Clippers: The total in this one has dropped from 235 to 231 even though we’re seeing more than 60% of the wagers come in on the over. Another game where the most recent numbers like the over and the season-to-date stats like this one to land under the total.
2/22/21
Somewhat small slate for Monday, as we moved to 36-31 on the season when the Knicks went under the total in a strange game last night. Just one play tonight.
Miami at Oklahoma City: The Heat have moved from 5 to 6.5, while the total has dropped down slightly to 212. I also have this one at 212, but with the trends favoring the under going to go ahead and take this one to land under the number. The Heat have gone 4-8 in totals after a victory, while the Thunder are 3-7-1 in totals after a victory. While the season-to-date numbers have this one going over, the recent numbers are the one calling for a lower-scoring game. Miami is 2-5-1 in totals when the total is 215 or lower, while the Thunder have gone 1-3 in the same spot.
Portland at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 6 with a total of 227 and I’m torn on this one. My totals numbers are calling for this one to land over the number, while we’re also seeing a little bit of sharp money on the under. Since the projections are somewhat close to the total, just going to stay away from this one.
Charlotte at Utah: The Jazz are 12.5 and 227.5 and this is somewhat like the game directly above, although my numbers are split in a game where we’re seeing a tad of sharp money on the under, so no hurry to make a stand on this one. The Jazz are getting bet pretty well in this one and double digit favorites have fared well so far this year, but the Jazz are coming off two games with the Clippers and have the Lakers up next, so not so sure how focused they’re going to be in this spot.
Washington at Lakers: Interesting game here, as the Lakers opened 7 and the line has stayed there for the most part with pretty even betting coming in on the game. The price has shifted to -115 on the Lakers at a couple of betting outlets.
2/21/21
A good-sized slate of NBA games on the schedule, but not really that great of a card from a handicapping perspective, as it’s one of those days where you struggle to come up with anything. We moved to 35-31 on the season last night, as the Bulls led from the second quarter on and never looked back in knocking off the Kings.
Minnesota at New York: The Knicks are favored by 3 and the total here is at 216, while I have this one 112-102 in favor of the Knicks, but going to follow some trends and take the under here, not necessarily because I’m enamored with the game, but since it looks to be the best of the bunch on what’s a tough handicapping day, for me at least. I’m sure there are others who love today’s slate. Both teams scored less than 90 points last game, making it the first game of the year where we see two teams who both failed to crack 90 points last game. Since the start of the 2017 season, these games have gone 5-10-1 in totals and they’re 2-8 dating back to 2004 if the total is at least 215.
Even though the Timberwolves lost to the Raptors last game, they did hold Toronto to 86 points and Minnesota has gone 2-4 in totals after holding a foe to 105 or fewer points, which is 10 points fewer than their season average. The problem for Minnesota on the road has been defense, as they allow 118.3 points, but the Knicks may not be the team to take advantage of their defensive deficiencies, although they have scored 120 points in each of their last two home games.
The Knicks are 4-11 in totals after a loss, so will give the under a shot here and hope one of the two teams has an off-shooting night.
2/20/21
We fell to 34-31 on the season last night, seeing a few too many points scored in the second half. Small slate of games today and something going on in the Lakers’ game, as the line and total have really dropped, so one I’ll just stay away from.
Sacramento at Chicago: The Kings opened -2.5 and the line has stayed there with Sacramento getting 57% of the early wagers, so you really wouldn’t expect to see anything more than a half-point move, if the number moves at all, so a pretty good opening number by the oddsmakers. This is just the second time the Kings have been favored on the road all season and the first time ended in disaster, as the Warrior won 137-106. The Bulls have been home underdogs nine times already and have gone 4-5 ATS, although they are 3-1 ATS when getting fewer than three points. I have the Kings winning 115-114, so pretty close to the line, but the trends support the Bulls here, as Chicago is 10-5 ATS after a loss and the Kings are just 4-11 ATS following a setback. Will take the Bulls +2.5 in this one.
Golden State at Charlotte: The Warriors opened 2 and are still there for the most part after getting 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has climbed from 230.5 to 234 with 60% of the wagers on the over, so a little bigger of a move than you’d expect to see. I have Charlotte winning, but the Warriors have fared well after a loss this season, going 8-5 ATS.
Phoenix at Memphis: The Suns have moved from -3 to -4 with 40% of the wagers, although the game did hit 4.5 and come back down slightly. I have the Suns winning by 5, so nothing really in this one.
Miami at Lakers: The Lakers opened -5 and the line dropped to 3 with pretty even betting and now the number has come back up to 3.5. The total has also dipped from 214 to 209.5 with 55% of the wagers on the under.
Washington at Portland: The Blazers have moved from 6 to 4.5 with a little less than 50% of the wagers in the game, while the total came out at 242 and has stayed there with pretty mixed betting. I have this one landing under the number, but no interest in taking a stand.
2/19/21
Much bigger slate of games for today after yesterday’s strange three-game slate. We’re 34-30 on the season, so need to get moving in the right direction.
Golden State at Orlando: The Warriors have moved from 5.5 to 4 with the betting being pretty well split down the middle. The Magic are just 3-6 as a home underdog this season and 5-5 ATS after a win. Golden State is 2-1 as an away favorite this season.
Atlanta at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 4 and the total has dipped slightly to 225.5. Boston opened 4.5 and have gotten the majority of the wagers in the game, but it still dropped slightly. Atlanta started off the season pretty competitively, but have gotten away from playing defense, so no surprise they’re struggled as of late. Think Atlanta gets back to playing so defense, so will take a shot on the under 225.5.
Toronto at Minnesota: The total on this one has moved from 229 to 226.5, while the line on the Raptors has dropped from 3.5 to 2.5. Definitely a bit of a letdown spot for the Raptors, who went into Milwaukee and won both games, but the line is now pretty cheap. The Timberwolves defeated the Raptors a few nights ago, so not really interested in taking Minnesota here, as a quick revenge matchup might be enough to get the Raptors not to take it easy here. Still, the Raptors have two games with the 76ers on tap, so just going to stay clear.
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened 11.5 and the line has dropped to 10.5 with Oklahoma City getting a small majority of the wagers. The Thunder won at home against Milwaukee as 11-point underdogs just five days ago, so not a whole lot of value with the visiting team.
Utah at Clippers: The Jazz are favored by 4 in a game that has seen pretty mixed betting while the total is 224.5. Utah won 114-96 two nights ago, as the Clippers led 51-46 at the half, only to see Utah run away in the second half.
2/18/21
A split last night, losing with the Timberwolves +5.5 in overtime to fall to 33-30 for the season, and now just a three-game schedule and nothing really looks all that appealing, so just one play tonight and not totally enamored with it.
Toronto at Milwaukee: The Bucks have moved from 6.5 to 6 with the Raptors getting the majority of the wagers in the game, while the total has moved from 233.5 to 235.5. The Raptors defeated the Bucks two days ago and Milwaukee is just 3-5 ATS when playing a team who beat them the last time they played and 5-5-1 after a loss this season. After a slow start the Raptors have come to life a little bit, going 6-3 their last nine games. I’m on both sides of the total and the side, so will just stay clear of this one.
Brooklyn at Lakers: Interesting one here, as the Lakers have remained at 2.5 with the betting pretty well split down the middle, while the total has dropped from 237.5 to 232.5 on mixed betting. A few players out for this one, but still tough to go against the Nets, who are a 13-1 totals run after a victory. But if there’s one team who can get the Nets out of their comfort zone, it could well be the Lakers. The most surprising thing about the Nets is that they play just slightly faster-paced than normal, ranking No. 8 in pace, but they’re so good offensively and so bad defensively, they have high-scoring games. The Lakers play a little slower than normal, ranking No. 23 and Los Angeles is No. 27 over the past 10 games. I might regret it, but going to take a shot on the under 232.5 in this one, not really because I like the play, but because I really don’t like the other two games one bit.
Miami at Sacramento: The Heat have moved from -3 to -1 with the Kings getting the majority of the wagers, but not quite as much as would warrant a 2-point move. The Heat lost in overtime last night, but do have a short trip from the Bay Area to Sacramento. Neither team is very good against the spread after a loss, and another game where I’m on both sides of the total. Wanted to take Miami but can’t quite pull the trigger.
2/17/21
We fell to 32-29 on the season when the Suns stopped playing at halftime, as the Nets rallied from a 20-point halftime deficit to get the win. So far it’s been either the college plays or the pro plays doing well and the other one not, which is why we’re a combined 78-75 in hoops, which doesn’t quite get the job done.
New York at Orlando: The Knicks are favored by 4 on the road and it’s just the third time New York has been an away favorite this season. The number opened at 4 and has stayed there with New York getting 58% of the wagers in the game. The total opened 210.5 and has moved to 210 with more than 60% of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 196 and 210, but the trends like the under, so will play under 210 for the first of two plays tonight. The Knicks are 4-10 in totals when they win the game and are 1-3 in totals when they’re favored, so you can tell it doesn’t happen much. New York is also 5-8 after a victory and 4-12 in totals on the road so enough there to take a shot on the game landing under the number.
Indiana at Minnesota: The Pacers opened -7 and the line is now down to 5.5 even though Indiana is getting 65% of the wagers in this one. The Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS playing with no rest and 2-3 straight-up with a pair of two-point losses, so Minnesota hasn’t really suffered much after playing the night before. The Timberwolves have covered six of their last seven after a loss, so going to take a shot on the Timberwolves plus the points in this one.
Miami at Golden State: The Heat opened 1 and now the Warriors are now favored by 1 after getting 55% of the wagers in the game. Golden State had moved to 1.5 when they were getting close to 60% of the wagers, but the line has dropped back down a bit as a little more Miami wagers came in. The line did flop to seeing Golden State favored early in the morning when the majority of the wagers were on the Heat, so perhaps a little sharp money on Golden State early but it really hasn’t continued.
2/16/21
We won with the Kings going over the total on Monday to move to 32-28 on the season and now have a small slate of games that got a little bit smaller with the postponement of the Spurs and Pistons.
Denver at Boston: The Celtics have dropped two in a row and four of their last five and find themselves favored by 2.5 over the Suns after opening -3. Boston has received 63% of the wagers in the game. The Suns are 9-7 ATS after a win, having covered their last three.
Toronto at Milwaukee: The first of two straight games between these two, the Bucks opened 6.5 and the line is down to 5.5 even with Milwaukee getting 80% of the wagers in the game. The number has come back up to 6 at a few betting outlets. Both teams have lost two straight games and favorites are just 9-14 ATS when each team lost its last two games this season, but 7-6 against the spread when the line is 5 or greater.
Lakers at Minnesota: The Lakers have moved from 7.5 to 6.5 in this one even though Los Angeles is getting 57% of the wagers in the game. The Lakers are 5-1 straight-up after a loss, but just 3-3 ATS. The Timberwolves are 3-6 straight-up as a home underdog, but they have 6-3 against the number in that role.
Brooklyn at Phoenix: The Suns opened -2 and have climbed all the way to 4.5 in a game that is seeing split betting down the middle. The Nets are in a bit of a tough situational spot, with away underdogs who won the previous night as an away favorite going 12-19-1 since the start of the 2018 season. The Nets had no trouble without Durant last night against Sacramento, but might be a tougher challenge against a solid Phoenix team that will play a little defense and not simply try to outscore Brooklyn.
2/15/21
A split in the NBA last night, as we’re 31-28 for the season and now have seven games on the slate, and there’s been plenty of line movement so far this morning.
Brooklyn at Sacramento: The Nets opened 4 and the line has stayed there with pretty even betting, while the total has moved from 239 to 243 even though there’s been more under wagers than over bets. The number is high, but going to take a shot on the over here. The Kings have averaged 232.5 points in their games after a win, while the Nets are seeing 239.1. With the average number of points in a game 223.8, think this one can get there over the number, although you have to worry about possible garbage time. This one was at 241 when I started writing and changed it to 242, and just now had to bump it up another point, so wrapping things and get this out there as soon as possible.
Chicago at Indiana: The Pacers have moved from 6.5 to 5.5 after getting close to two-thirds of the wagers, while the total has dropped from its opening of 229.5 to 226 even though the betting is pretty much split down the middle.
Miami at Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 3.5 but could be without Leonard and George, who are both listed as questionable in this one, while Dragic is out for the Heat. Too much uncertainty to want to get involved with this one.
Philadelphia at Utah: The Jazz opened as 5.5-point favorites and the number has already been bet up to 7.5, with a little more than 60% of the early wagers coming in on the Jazz. Can’t blame those backing the Jazz, as they’re playing better than anybody in the league right now, but there’s no trophy for having the league’s best record in February. The 76ers have dropped two straight.
2/14/21
Pretty big slate of NBA games for Sunday, where we snapped our skid and sit at 30-27 for the season.
Portland at Dallas: The Mavs opened -3.5 and the line has climbed to 5 with Dallas getting 38% of the early wagers in the game. Both teams have been playing better as of late, with the Blazers winning three straight and Dallas winning four in a row, although all of those wins came at home and the Mavs get to remain at home, while the Blazers take to the road. With McCullum out for Portland and Hood listed as questionable, a faster-paced game could favor the Mavs in this spot and that’s when they’ve been at their best, going 8-0 straight-up and 6-2 ATS when scoring 120 or more points, so going to take a shot on the Mavs -5.
Memphis at Sacramento: The Grizzlies opened 1.5 and the line is down to 1, with the Kings getting 60% of the early wagers in the game. Strictly a little system play in this one that says to take away favorites off a loss if they lost to the team they’re playing today the last time they met. Since the start of the 2018 season it’s gone 79-58-4 (57.7%) and with the Kings just 4-8 ATS off a loss this season, will go ahead and take Memphis for the final play of the day.
Minnesota at Toronto: The Raptors have moved from 9 to 8 after getting two-thirds of the wagers, while the total has climbed from 228 to 229.5. I have this one coming in a little bit under the number.
Lakers at Denver: The Lakers opened 3 and the line climbed to 3.5 for a bit, but has since dropped back down to 3 with LA getting 56% of the wagers in this one. The total has climbed slightly from 216.5 to 217 with the betting being split down the middle and I have this one at 218.5.
Milwaukee at Oklahoma City: The Bucks have moved from 10 to 11.5 after getting close to 70% of the wagers, while the total in this one has shot up from 225.5 to 229.5. The number did get up to 230, but has dropped a little bit, as some people come in and try to take shots on a 4-point middle. I have this at 230.5, so too close for comfort.
2/13/21
We’ve won a few in a row in college hoops, only to turn around and lose the NBA plays, so will look to get the pro plays back on track here. Small slate of games, so again just one play.
Miami at Utah: The Jazz have moved from 4.5 to 6 and I have Utah winning 112-102, so going to go ahead and take the Jazz here. The Jazz are playing a back-to-back after thumping Milwaukee last night, but Utah has gone 3-1 ATS in back-to-back spots this season and are 16-4 ATS after a win. The Heat are just 4-6 ATS after a win this season and 2-3 ATS when getting 6 or more points this season. Long-term, the Heat are in a bad spot, as teams who have won their last four games are 175-261-13 (40.1%) when getting 6 or more points and even worse recently, going 5-12 dating to the start of last season and 10-21-1 going back to the start of the 2018 season.
Philadelphia at Phoenix: The 76ers are favored by 1 and the line has held pretty steady on a good balance of wagers, while the total has dropped down to 222.5. I’m split on the total and have the Suns pulling out a two-point win, so nothing really happening in this one.
Indiana at Atlanta: The Pacers opened 1.5 and the line has stayed there with Indiana getting just 42% of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped from 226.5 to 224.5 with 60% of the wagers landing on the under and I have this one at 221.
Houston at New York: The Rockets opened as 1.5-point favorites and now this one is even after the Knicks received 58% of the wagers. I have New York winning by a couple and am split on the total, which opened at 209.5 but has since climbed to 212 with a little more than 70% of the early wagers landing on the over.
Brooklyn at Golden State: The Nets opened as 4-point favorites and Brooklyn has hit 4.5 at some sportsbooks after getting 58% of the early wagers in the game. The total opened at 243.5 and is now at 245 after 62% of the early wagers have been on the over. The Wizards and the Nets have the highest total so far this season at 245.5. The Nets are 5-1 in totals when the number is 240 or greater, while this is the first time Golden State has played to a total greater than 240.
2/12/21
Dropped to 29-26 on the season when the Warriors fell two points short of covering the number last night, as we had another rough final two minutes, being outscored 11-4.
Memphis at Lakers: The Lakers opened 7.5 and the line has dropped to 7 with the Lakers getting 70% of the early wagers, so going to take a shot on the Grizzlies here. The Lakers won both games at Memphis earlier this season and were favored by 9.5 and 10, so this line is definitely a little bit off. The Lakers are coming off a couple of hard-fought wins against Oklahoma City and have a game with Denver on tap, so not the best of spots for Los Angeles.
San Antonio at Atlanta: The Hawks opened 3.5 and the line has dropped to 2 with Atlanta getting roughly 55% of the early wagers in the game, so a bit of sharp money on the underdog, a role the Spurs have fared well in this season.
Oklahoma City at Denver: The Nuggets opened -12 in this one and the line is holding steady with the home team getting two-thirds of the wagers. OKC is battling some injury issues but the Nuggets do have the Lakers up next and can’t blame the players if they’re looking forward to that one a little bit.
Milwaukee at Utah: The best game of the night sees the Jazz favored by 2.5 after opening as 2-point favorites and getting 45% of the wagers. The line did climb to 3 earlier but has dropped back down slightly due to the number of bets coming in on the Bucks. The total has moved from 232.5 to 234 with a little more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over.
Cleveland at Portland: The Blazers opened -7 and the line has dropped to 3.5 even with the Blazers getting 65% of the wagers, so most likely somebody sitting the game out. The total has inches from 221.5 to 222 with more than 75% of the wagers coming in on the over.
2/11/21
An ugly 1-2 night in the NBA, as things got out of hand the last minute of the Clippers game, turning what looked to be a win into a loss after a 78-point fourth quarter, including 25 in the last 1:38. So dropped to 29-25 on the season and we have a smaller slate of games on tap for tonight.
Orlando at Golden State: The Warriors opened 5.5 in this one and they’ve been bet all the way up to Golden State -8 with 47% of the wagers in the game coming in on the home team. The Magic are just 4-11 ATS after a loss and I have Golden State winning 116-102, so will take the Warriors in this one.
Toronto at Boston: The Celtics opened 4.5 and the line has dropped to 3 despite Boston attracting close to two-thirds of the early wagers in the game. The total has moved from 222.5 to 220.5 with 60% of the wagers coming in on the over, although I don’t really see it, as my numbers and many of the trends are pointing to the over. The teams did play a 126-114 game last month, but the officials had a big hand in the final score, as Boston shot 34 foul shots and the Raptors had 38 free throws. Will respect the line move and just stay away.
Indiana at Detroit: The Pacers opened -5.5 and this one just hit 2.5 at the majority of sportsbooks, with Indiana getting close to 43% of the wagers. The total has dipped from 217.5 to 216.5 on pretty mixed betting.
Miami at Houston: The Heat have moved from -3 to -2 after getting 57% of the wagers in the game. The total has also dropped a couple of points and is now sitting at 215.
Philadelphia at Portland: The 76ers opened 4.5 and the line has climbed to 5.5 with the visitors getting 53% of the early wagers in the game. The total has moved from 228.5 to 229.5 with 57% of the early wagers on the over. My numbers are calling for this one to land under the number and would definitely lean that way but this is a bit of a tough one to get involved with, with Portland winning 121-105 on the road a week ago.
2/10/21
It was more of the same last night, winning the NBA play, but dropping the two college hoops plays. We moved to 28-23 in the NBA and will have a few plays in the pros tonight, which is a bit unusual.
Toronto at Washington: The Raptors opened -5.5 and the total opened 229.5 and Toronto is still 5.5, while the total has climbed to 233. The public is now jumping on the over, as the total started moving upwards with just 40% of the wagers on the over and now more than 70% of the wagers have landed on the over. Think it’s the right side, however, and even though I was burned with the Wizards over a few nights ago will give them another shot and take the over 233 in this spot.
LA Clippers at Minnesota: The Clippers opened -9 and the total was 226.5 and now Los Angeles is 10.5 and the total has dropped to 223. The Timberwolves have received the majority of the wagers in the game, so the upwards line movement a bit of a surprise, while the majority of the wagers on the total have come in on the over. I have this one at 220 and at 217, so will go ahead and take the under 223 here.
Charlotte at Memphis: The Grizzlies opened 4 and 226 and the line is holding at Memphis -4, even though we’ve seen the Hornets get 60% of the wagers here. The total has dropped to 224 with a little more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. I also have this one at 220 and 217, so will take the under here for the final play.
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers: The Lakers opened -10.5 and the line has climbed to 11.5 although we’re seeing Oklahoma City get a little more than 60% of the early wagers in the game. The total opened 218.5 and it is still there with more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. My numbers do have this one at 223 and 220, so just going to stay away from this one.
Milwaukee at Phoenix: The Bucks have moved up slightly, from 4 to 4.5, on a game that’s seen pretty even betting, while the total has climbed from 224.5 to 226.5 with 80% of the wagers on the over. I have it at 225 and 226.
2/9/21
We fell to 27-23 in the NBA on Monday and a decent slate of games for Tuesday, although not the greatest slate from a fan perspective.
Boston at Utah: Probably the best game of the night, this one saw the Jazz open as 4-point favorites and the line has moved to 5.5 even though Utah is getting about 37% of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped slightly from 220.5 to 220 even though we’re seeing close to two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. I have the Jazz winning this one by 12, so will go ahead and take Utah in this one.
Brooklyn at Detroit: The Nets are favored by 6.5 after opening -9.5 and getting 60% of the wagers. The line move likely has to do with Durant not playing in this one, as he’s been ruled out. I have Brooklyn winning by two and the game sneaking over the total.
New York at Miami: The Heat have moved from -8 to -6 with New York getting the slight majority of the wagers. The total has dipped from 208 to 207.5 even though we’re seeing the majority of the wagers on the over. I have the Heat winning by two and am split on the total, with one calling for the over and another liking this one to go under the total.
Golden State at San Antonio: The Spurs are favored by 1 and the total has dropped a little bit from 233 to 230 with 80% of the wagers on the under. Most of that probably has to do with the teams playing a low-scoring 105-100 game. The Spurs were favored by 1.5 and the total was 232.5 when the teams met last night. Wouldn’t be a total surprise to see this one land over the total, since teams don’t always play the same style in back-to-back games, but since I have a split on the total, with one set of numbers on the over and the other on the under, will just go ahead and stay away.
Orlando at Portland: The Blazers have moved from 4.5 to 6, as Lillard has been upgraded to probable. I have Portland winning this one 116-110 and my other method calls for it to sneak over the total, which has moved all the way down from 224.5 to 220 with 56% of the wagers on the under, so a bigger move than the betting would indicate.
2/8/21
Dropped the NBA play on Sunday to fall to 27-22 on the season and a little bit of a larger slate of games today than we had on Sunday.
Cleveland at Phoenix: The Suns have held at 7 for most of the morning, while a few sportsbook have already bumped the number up to 7.5. The total opened 216.5 and is now down to 214.5. I have this one at 209 and with the Suns going 2-3 in totals with no rest and 4-8-1 after a win, along with Cleveland’s 4-7-1 totals mark after a loss, while go ahead and take the under in this spot.
Houston at Charlotte: The Rockets have moved from 1.5 to 3 in this one after getting 68% of the wagers, while the total has climbed to 223.5. The Hornets did their job yesterday, while the Wizards struggled to score and it got worse during garbage time, which was most of the second half. The Rockets have been playing good defense since the Harden trade, while the Hornets have been scoring more as of late.
Oklahoma City at Lakers: The Lakers have moved from -12 to -10 this morning, even though James and Davis were listed as probable on the injury report. The two teams play again here Wednesday. The total opened 218.5 and has dropped to 216 with pretty even betting on both the over and the under.
Toronto at Memphis: The Raptors have moved from 1 to 2, while the total has inched up a bit after opening at 222.5 and is now 224. I have this one in the 222 range, so no hurry to get involved in this one.
Milwaukee at Denver: A pretty good game here, as the Bucks have moved from 3.5 to 4-point favorites while the total is up to 234. The Nuggets can play defense when they want to, but they have been a little lax with the stop unit this season. The Nuggets did win both games against the Bucks last year, so a bit of a revenge game for Milwaukee, who is playing its third game in four night, so a trip to Denver isn’t ideal. The Bucks did get a chance to play the bench a bit in the two games against the Cavs. My numbers are split on the total and have Milwaukee winning, so nothing really happening here.
2/7/21
We won our play here yesterday to make up for another loss in college hoops, which has been a struggle so far. Before the season began I would have expected to do better in college hoops, but hasn’t worked out that way. Small slate of games on this Super Bowl Sunday and all of them have early starting times.
Washington at Charlotte: The Wizards opened 2.5 and the line has dropped to 1.5, while the total has climbed from 235.5 to 237.5 with 52% of the wagers coming in on the over. This is one of those games where the most recent stats tell a much different story than the season-to-date stats, as using season numbers will have this one landing well under the total. But by using the last 10 games for both teams I get a projection of 238 and if using the last five contests I get a projection of 246, so going to go ahead and take the over in this one. The line has climbed higher than it should based on the betting and the Wizards are coming off a couple of dismal offensive efforts against the Heat and think they bounce back a little bit. The Wizards are 8-5 in totals after a loss, while the Hornets are 5-7, but 4-2 over the past three weeks, which is when they started scoring a bit more.
Miami at New York: The Heat opened 6 and the line has stayed there even though the Knicks are getting close to 60% of the wagers in the game. Home underdogs off a win and no rest are 8-4 ATS this season, but were just 7-10-1 last season. Last season also saw these teams go 16-2 in totals, but they’re just 5-7 this year, so a couple of trend reversals so far.
Sacramento at LA Clippers: The Clippers opened 8.5 and the number has held steady with the Kings getting nearly 60% of the wagers, while the total opened 230.5 and dropped to 228 even though we’re seeing more over wagers come in on the game. The Clippers are just 2-5 in totals this season when the number is 228 or higher, but the Kings are 7-4 and also 7-3 in totals following a victory.
2/6/21
Completely of the mark Friday, falling to 26-21 on the season and now faced with a bit of a tough card.
Golden State at Dallas: The Mavericks are favored by 4 in this one and you’d like to take them after they were just drilled by 31 points against the Warriors. While long-term home favorites who lost by 30 or more points against a foe last time are 57.1% over the years, they have dropped the last five games, so will just stay away from this one.
Toronto at Atlanta: The Raptors opened -6 and the line has dropped to 4.5 even though Toronto is getting close to 60% of the wagers in the game, so will go ahead and take a shot on Atlanta to get the ship righted after losing the first three games of their current homestand. The Hawks have been underdogs in the first three games and barring the last one against the Jazz, didn’t really play that poorly. The Raptors are coming off a win against the Nets last night.
Brooklyn at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 3.5 with news that Kevin Durant won’t play for Brooklyn and the total has held at 237.5. We’re starting to see more over wagers come in on the game, but the total has been holding steady. Embiid is listed as questionable for the 76ers.
Milwaukee at Cleveland: Interesting one here, as the two teams played here last night and the Bucks overcame a slow start to post a 123-105 victory. Hard to guess how much intensity Milwaukee will have for tonight’s game, as they didn’t come out too strong against the Cavs on Friday, as Cleveland led 63-60 at halftime before the Bucks came out and showed a little bit of defense in the second half. The Bucks are just 5-5 ATS after a double-digit win and 6-3-1 in totals, while the Cavs have gone 4-5 ATS and 3-6 in totals after a double-digit loss.
2/5/21
A split in the NBA on Thursday as we move to 26-20 on the season and we have a pretty large slate of games for Friday, although that doesn’t always translate to a number of decent wagers.
Minnesota at Oklahoma City: Minnesota is favored by 1 after opening 2.5 and the Thunder received the bulk of the wagers. The total opened 218.5 and has stayed there with a little bit more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the under. I made this one 225 and 228, but Minnesota is 7-8 after a loss and the Thunder are 2-5-1 after a win, so will stay away from this one.
Utah at Charlotte: The Jazz opened 8 and the line has pretty much stayed there, while the total has climbed slightly from 222.5 to 223. The Jazz are 6-10 in totals after a win and the Hornets are 4-7 in totals after a loss, so will take a shot on the under 223 in this one.
Toronto at Brooklyn: The Nets are favored by 4.5 and the total has come down slightly from 243.5 to 241 and I have a wide range on this one of 231 and 241. Brooklyn did open 5.5 and have received the majority of the wagers on the game, so the Raptors are getting a little bit of play.
Boston at LA Clippers: The Clippers have moved from 5 to 6.5 even though the Celtics have received a few more of the wagers. The total has dropped from 221 to 220 even though more than 80% of the wagers are coming in on the over.
Detroit at Phoenix: The Suns opened 9.5 and the line has dropped to 7.5 as the Pistons are getting two-thirds of the wagers in the game. The total has moved from 216 to 214 even though nearly two-thirds of the wagers have been on the over. I have this one 223, but will respect the reverse move and keep it to just the one play for today.
2/4/21
We moved to 25-19 on the season Wednesday and now have a bit of a smaller schedule than we’ve been seeing.
Denver at LA Lakers: The Lakers opened -6 and the line just dropped to 4.5 on pretty mixed betting, so going to go ahead and take the Nuggets +4.5, as I have this one even, but was hoping for 5 or 6 points with Denver. The Lakers are 8-6-1 ATS after a win this season, while Denver has gone 5-6. The Lakers are playing their first home game since Jan. 18, as their last seven games were on the road.
Portland at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 8.5 and I have them winning by 7, although that doesn’t fully account for the Blazers’ injury situation. With some many unknowns in this one, just going to stay away.
Golden State at Dallas: The Mavs have moved from 3.5 to 3 after getting 44% of the wagers here, while the total has shot all the up from 224.5 to 228.5 with more than 80% of the early wagers on the over. I have the total here at 221.
Utah at Atlanta: The Jazz have moved from -5 to -7.5 with 60% of the wagers, so the move is a little higher than it should be. I have the Jazz by 3 and the Hawks are in a fair situation regarding teams who failed to cover as home dogs last game and are home underdogs once again (16-11 ATS this year and 28-19-2 last year omitting the bubble games), but will stay clear of this one for the time being.
Houston at Memphis: The Grizzlies have moved from -1 to -2.5 after getting 56% of the wagers, while the total has dropped slightly from 224.5 to 224 with 70% of the wagers on the over. The Rockets are 4-5 in totals after a win and the Grizzlies are 1-4-1. I have this one at 215 and 218 and with Memphis going 0-2-1 in totals after allowing 120 or more, will go ahead and grab the under 224 in this one.
2/3/21
A tough loss with the under in the Clippers game on Tuesday, with 15 points scored in the final minute, as we fall to 24-19 on the year. You’re going to have those nights and nothing you can really do but march forward to the next day.
Indiana at Milwaukee: The Bucks are 8.5 and 232, while I have Milwaukee winning by 12 and totals of 226 and 228. The total has held at 232 with 55% of the early wagers coming in on the under.
Dallas at Atlanta: For the second straight game, the Mavs are getting some play, as the Hawks opened -1.5 and now Dallas is favored by 2 after getting 52% of the wagers in the game. The Mavs have lost six straight games, which puts them into one of my favorite NBA systems. Away favorites who have lost at least five straight games are 67-39-3 (63.2%) against the spread, although just 1-2 so far this season, with the Magic failing to cover the number in a couple of attempts. The system was 5-2 last year and 5-0 the year before. There isn’t really much difference in the results if the home team won or lost its last game, but will go ahead and take Dallas -2 for today’s play, as the Mavs fall into the system and have also received a bigger line move than the early betting would suggest.
Houston at Oklahoma City: The Rockets just thumped the Thunder here on Monday and now are favored by 6.5 but the total has dropped from its opening number of 223.5 to 221.5, which seems a little odds as the teams combined for 242 points Monday, with Houston scoring 136 of them. Houston was favored by 5 in that game, so you’re laying an extra 1.5 points in this one, while the total in that game was 224.5, so expected it to be a little closer to that one.
Minnesota at San Antonio: The Spurs opened -9 with a total of 223 and now San Antonio is favored by 8, while the total has climbed to 224.5. The Spurs are getting 63% of the early wagers in the game, so a slight reverse move on the spread, while the under has received 62% of the early wagers, so a slight reverse move there, as well. I have 225.5 and 228 on my totals projections.
2/2/21
We moved to 24-18 on the season last night and are faced with a bit of a tough schedule for Tuesday, where it’s a little hard to find the type of plays that we like.
Detroit at Utah: The Jazz opened -9.5 and the line has climbed all the way to 12.5 even though the Pistons have received 54% of the wagers in the game. A few shops have dropped the game down to 12 as I started writing. Double-digit favorites haven’t fared too poorly this season and I have the Jazz winning easy, but the Pistons are 9-5 ATS after a loss this season, so will just stay clear of this one.
LA Clippers at Brooklyn: The Clippers are favored by 1.5 after opening as the underdog and getting 54% of the wagers in this one, while the total is at 242.5. I might feel stupid when this one is finished, but going to go ahead and take a shot on the under. I have this one at 231 and the Clippers are 0-3 in totals this year when the number is 230 or higher, making this the highest total they’ve played to. The Clippers play decent defense and have to hope they come to play, as opposed to just running up-and-down the court with the Nets. Brooklyn is just the fifth team in the last 19 years to score 140 or more in regulation and lose.
Memphis at Indiana: We have some conflicting opinions in this one, as the Pacers opened -6 and the line is down to 5 with Memphis getting 65% of the wagers in the game. The Grizzlies have been solid away from home this season, so real surprise there. The total on the game has moved from 221 to 223.5 and I have this one at 224 and 225, so would agree with the move, but not enough to make a play on.
Boston at Golden State: The Celtics opened 2.5 and the number has stayed there with Boston getting 57% of the wagers in the game, while the total has inched upwards a little bit to 226 with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. I have Golden State winning and the game sneaking under the total, but both projections are pretty close to the lines, so will stay clear.
2/1/21
We moved to 23-18 on the season on Sunday and now are faced with a pretty good-sized slate of games for Monday. There are a couple that grab our attention, so we’ll see what we can come up with.
Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta: The Lakers opened -6.5 and the line has dropped to 5.5 with the Hawks getting close to 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has moved from 220 to 218 with 60% of the bets coming in on the over. I have this one at 214 and 205, with the Hawks staying under the number. Atlanta is 5-4 ATS and in totals after a win and covered their lone game as a home dog this season, while the Lakers are 7-6-1 ATS and 4-10 in totals after a win. The Lakers are just 2-10 in totals as an away favorite this season, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the under 218.5 in this one.
Houston at Oklahoma City: The Rockets have moved from 5.5 to 5-point favorites after getting 61% of the bets, while the total has moved from 222 to 224 with 38% of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 228 and 234 with the Rockets covering. The Thunder are 6-3 in totals after a loss and 3-2-1 as a home underdog, where they’ve lost all six games and are just 1-5 ATS, so a little hard to put a lot of faith in Oklahoma City here. Houston is just 2-6 in totals after a win, but 2-0 when an away favorite.
Phoenix at Dallas: The Mavs opened -1 and have moved to -3 despite getting just 38% of the early wagers in the game. Dallas is just 4-7 ATS after a loss this season, while the Suns are 4-5 ATS after a win. Dallas has dropped five straight games, so no real interest to jump into this one, especially with the numbers liking Phoenix to win the game, making this one pretty much of an easy pass.
Minnesota at Cleveland: The Cavs opened -5 with a total of 218 and this one has already moved to 4.5 and the total has climbed to 219 with more than 80% of the early wagers on the over. We had the under between these two last night in Minnesota and now have projections of 225 and 227, so agree with the line move.
1/31/21
We fell to 22-18 on the season as I read too much into Charlotte’s promise to play defense against Milwaukee, although it was more a case of the Bucks playing dismal on the defensive side that did the wager in. Charlotte made 11 of their first 14 3-points and that was pretty much it.
Cleveland at Minnesota: The Cavaliers opened 2 and 220 and now Cleveland is favored by 3 with a total of 218.5. Cleveland has gotten nearly two-thirds of the wagers in the game, so the move to 3 isn’t that surprising, although the total has dropped with more than 70% of the bets on the over, so will go ahead and take the under 218.5 in this one.
Utah at Denver: The Jazz have moved from a 1-point underdog to a 1.5-point favorite after getting 52% of the wagers in the game, while the total has dropped from 220 to 219.5 with most of the wagers coming in on the over. My numbers have this one at 223, however, so will just stay clear of the game.
Orlando at Toronto: The Magic made the short trip along I-4 to Tampa for this one, which is seeing some sharp action on the under, as the total has moved from 218 to 215.5 even with more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 218, so will stay away.
Brooklyn at Washington: The Nets are favored by 7.5 on the road after opening as 9-point favorites and see the Wizards get a small majority of the wagers. The total has held pretty stead on mixed betting. This is the fifth game of the season to have a total of 240 or higher and three of the first four have gone over. The Nets were involved in the first four games, including a game against Washington earlier this month when the Wizards won 123-122 to send the game over the total of 242.
1//30/21
Eight games on the NBA schedule for Saturday, as we’re 22-17 on the season. Not a great slate from a betting perspective, so we’ll have just one play for the day.
Milwaukee at Charlotte: The Bucks are favored by 7 in this one, having opened 7.5 and received more than 80% of the early wagers in the game, so the Hornets are getting a little bit of action. The total here opened 227.5 and is now 230.5 with 62% of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 223 and with the Hornets going 2-5 in totals after a win, will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one. Both teams played last night, a situation that has gone 10-5 in totals so far this year, but think the Hornets are smart enough to avoid a running game with Milwaukee. If Charlotte looks to match Milwaukee point-for-point this one could get ugly, both for the Hornets and for our wager.
Houston at New Orleans: The Rockets are now favored by 1 with a total of 223 and while both numbers have this one going over the total, Houston is 1-6 in totals after a win, having played decent defense, allowing 103.9 points per game after a victory, compared to 111.7 after a loss.
Portland at Chicago: The Bulls opened 2.5 and the line is still there despite the Blazers getting close to 70% of the wagers in the game. Portland has impressive away numbers, although a lot of that has to do with 25-point road wins at Golden State and Sacramento, which distorts their overall numbers a little bit.
Sacramento at Miami: The Heat opened 6 and the line is now 5.5 with Miami now getting two-thirds of the wagers in the game. I have Miami winning this one by 3, so the numbers agree with the move. The total has held at 225 and both of my numbers are at 223.
Detroit at Golden State: The total in this one opened at 225 and is now 223.5 even though we’re seeing 70% of the wagers come in on the over of this game. My numbers like the over, but have to respect the money coming in on the under and will just stay away from this one.
1/29/21
A decent-sized slate of games in the NBA today, although a few have question marks, so we’ll just take a quick look at some of the games on the schedule. We’re 21-17 for the year, so still have a bit of catch-up to after our recent skid.
Indiana at Charlotte: The Pacers moved from 4 to 3.5 point favorites after getting 60% of the wagers. The total has moved from 220.5 to 222 with 55% of the wagers on the over. I have the total here at 212 and 217 and the Pacers winning by 4.
Sacramento at Toronto: The Raptors moved from 6.5 to 5.5 after getting a little more than 60% and the total has climbed from 228.5 to 229.5 after roughly 60% of the wagers came in on the under, so a couple of small stands on the Kings and the over, which makes sense, as if the Kings get the cover you’d expect it to be a high-scoring game.
Milwaukee at New Orleans: The Bucks have moved to 7.5 and the total is 230.5, while I’m split on the total, with one over projection and one under projection. I have Milwaukee winning, but not covering the spread.
Cleveland at New York: The Cavaliers have moved from an underdog to a 2-point favorite, even after getting fewer than 40% of the wagers in the game, while the total has been bet from 205.5 to 209 with more than 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 206.5 and will take a stab on the under in this one. There have been seven games so far this season to see a total of less than 210 and six of them have landed under the number, so will take a shot on the trend to continue.
1/28/21
Just four games on the NBA slate for tonight, so we’ll see what we can come up with, as we moved to 20-17 last night when we managed to sneak under the number in the Jazz game.
LA Clippers at Miami: Lots of players out or questionable in this one, where the Heat are favored by 4 and the total is 214.5. For the Clippers, Leonard, George and Beverly are out, while the Heat have Herro out and Dragic and Butler both questionable. No need to get involved with this one.
Lakers at Detroit: The Lakers are favored by 9.5 and the total is 214.5. The Lakers lost to the 76ers last night and LA is 3-1 ATS and 2-2 in totals after a loss, while the Pistons are 8-5 ATS and in totals after a loss. The Lakers are 2-0 after dropping two straight against the number and have the Celtics up next, so not an ideal spot for them. The Pistons are 6-4 ATS at home, while going just 3-7 straight up and are 6-2 ATS as a home dog.
Golden State at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 1 and the total here is 220.5. The Suns could be without Booker, who is their leading scorer, as he’s listed as questionable. The Suns have dropped five of six and their last three, all of which were at home. The Warriors just thumped Minnesota in back-to-back games, but think the Suns are the right side here, even without Booker, so will take a shot on Phoenix in this one.
Portland at Houston: The Rockets have moved from 2-point favorites to 4.5-point favorites with 56% of the wagers, while the total has bounced around a little and is at 228, which is pretty much where it opened. The Blazers will be without Covington and CJ McCollum, while Wood was upgraded to probable for the Rockets. Portland has been decent on the road, going 4-2 straight-up and against the spread, while they’re 3-3 ATS and in totals after a loss. The Rockets are 1-5 in totals after a win.
1/27/21
We split last time out to break our losing skid, but still are just 19-17 on the season, so will see what we can come up with here today.
Dallas at Utah: Solid game here, where the Jazz are favored by 2.5 with a total of 222. The Jazz opened 4 and have gotten more than 60% of the wagers, while the total opened 225.5 and has dropped despite 55% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 218 and 220 on the totals, and with Dallas 3-5 in totals after a win and the Jazz 4-8, will go ahead and take the under in this one.
Detroit at Cleveland: The Cavs are favored by 3 and the total is 214, while both numbers have this one going well over the total with projections of 225.5 and 229. But the under is getting some sharp action, as the game opened 214.5 and dropped a half-point despite more than 80% of the wagers coming in on the over. The Cavs are 2-5-1 in totals after a loss, so that will keep me off the total, along with the betting.
Oklahoma City at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 7 with a total of 216, while I have Phoenix winning by 8 and a pair of 222 projections on the total. This total has has dropped despite more than two-thirds of the bets coming in on the over. The Suns are 4-2 ATS after a loss and 3-3 in totals, while the Thunder have gone 1-4-1 in totals after a victory.
Minnesota at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 9 and the total is 228.5, while Golden State just won 130-108 here against Minnesota a few days ago. The Warriors are 2-6 in totals after a win and the Timberwolves are 6-5 after a loss. Teams who scored 130 or more points the last time they faced a team have gone just 10-28-1 in totals in the rematch, so the trends would lean to the under, although my totals projections are split on this one.
1/24/21
Still stinking it up, both in college and the NBA, so will look to break the skid that has us 18-16 after being 18-10 a few days back.
Toronto at Indiana: The Pacers are favored by 1.5 and the total is 219, as this one of two games where we’ve seen more under wagers than over bets. The other game, Atlanta at Milwaukee, has seen the total move from 235 to 230, while this one has just moved half a point despite there being more than 70% of the wagers on the under. I have this one at 227, so going to take a shot on the over in this one.
New York at Portland: The Blazers have moved from -5 to -4 after receiving 55% of the wagers and I have New York winning this one by 4, so will take the Knicks +4 for today’s final play. The Knicks have a better scoring margin than Portland, although part off that has to do with Portland getting waxed at home by the Spurs last game. Still, should be a competitive game and the points could come into play.
Charlotte at Orlando: The Magic are down to 1-point favorites after opening 3.5 and seeing the betting pretty much split down the middle, so the wise guys on the Hornets to an extent. The total has held at 214 for quite a while.
Washington at San Antonio: The Wizards return to action, although San Antonio is favored by 7 after opening as 5.5-point favorites and the betting is pretty much split down the middle. The total hasn’t really moved all that much and is still 231. Both the numbers I ran are calling for an over, but the Wizards have been off quite a while.
Cleveland at Boston: The Celtics have moved from 7-point favorites down to 6 on mixed betting, while the total is now starting to drop a bit, moving from 214.5 to 213.5 on even betting. I have this one at 210.5, so the downward move makes a bit of sense.
1/23/21
Still stinking it up, falling to 18-15 on the season. Running a little late, so will just look at a couple of the games.
Philadelphia at Detroit: The 76ers opened 7.5 with a total of 219.5 and the line is now Philadelphia -7 with a total of 218. The 76ers have received more than 60% of the wagers and 57% of the totals bets have been on the over, so will take a shot on the under 218 in this one.
New Orleans at Minnesota: The Pelicans have moved from from the opening number of 6.5 all the way to New Orleans -8 even though they’ve received just 32% of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped a point from 221.5 to 220.5.
Golden State at Utah: The total on this one has shot up five points, moving from 223 to 228, while the spread has inched up from 7 to 7.5. The Warriors haven’t been that great on the road, owning a scoring margin of -10.4 away from home, while the Jazz are themselves at home, outscoring opponents by 6.8 points.
Lakers at Chicago: The Lakers have moved from -9 to 9.5 even though Chicago is getting close to two-thirds of the early wagers in the game. The total has dropped slightly, moving from 227 to 226.5, with close to 60% of the wagers on the over.
Denver at Phoenix: A huge move in this one, as Denver is now favored by 2.5 after Phoenix opened -1.5. The game has moved all the way to 3 at a couple of sportsbooks. The total has dropped from 219 to 217.5 even though we’ve been seeing more wagers come in on the over.
1/22/21
The downward spiral continued, bring back shades of two years ago, where we started out on fire and then ran into a brick wall. We’re now 18-14 on the season after dropping four in a row after a high-scoring first quarter pretty much did us in. A few quarters under 50 points gave us a little hope entering the fourth quarter, but it was another high-scoring quarter, which did us in.
Brooklyn at Cleveland: The Nets have moved from -10 to 7.5, while the total has dropped four points to 224. Going to stay away from this one due to the uncertainty, since lines don’t typically move like that unless there are some injuries/rest/suspension, especially with the Cavs having a couple of players who are questionable for the game.
Dallas at San Antonio: The Mavs are favored by 2.5, which is they opened even though nearly 70% of the wagers in the game are coming in on the Mavericks. The total has dropped from 224 to 222 even though we’ve seen 56% of the bets come in on the over. Will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one.
New York at Sacramento: The Kings have moved from -3.5 to -4 even though New York is getting the majority of the wagers. The total has moved a half-point to 218.5 with nearly three-quarters of the bets coming in on the over.
Oklahoma City at LA Clippers: The Clippers have moved from -12.5 to 13.5 even though they’re getting just 42% of the early wagers in the game. Double-digit favorites are 15-5-1 ATS on the season so far.
1/21/21
The dreaded underdog overtime loss last night with the Pistons, who ended up losing by 8 in the extra session. Third loss in a row, dropping us to 18-13 on the season, which is why the NBA is tough to come out ahead over the long run, as there are plenty of games that could go either way and we’ve had a few go against us the past few nights.
Small slate of games for Thursday, so was able to look at them a little bit more closely and have one play.
Lakers at Milwaukee: The game of the night has seen the Bucks move from -2.5 to -1 even though the betting on the game is pretty well split. The Lakers have been a good road team this year, going 7-0 with a +14.4 scoring margin. The Lakers do play better defense away from home, so if you look at numbers, you’ll likely be on the under. Surprisingly, both teams come into this one off losses, so not sure if both weren’t looking ahead a little bit. The total has moved from 229.5 to 229 with close to two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over.
New York at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 4.5 and the total has held at 215.5. Golden State opened 5.5 and the line has dropped a little despite the Warriors getting most of the wagers. Running numbers on this one called it 102-99 for Golden State. With the Knicks being 0-6 in totals after a win and the Warriors 1-6 after coming away with a victory, have to go ahead and take the under in this one. Teams who scored more than 120 points their previous game are going under 55.3% of the time so far this season and if the total is under 220, totals are just 6-13.
New Orleans at Utah: The Jazz opened -7 and have stayed there with two-thirds of the wagers in the game coming in on the home team, while I have the Jazz winning by five. Utah is 2-7 in totals after a win, although we had the under a few nights ago and were done in by a 60-point fourth quarter, with plenty of scoring in garbage time.
1/20/21
Have dropped a couple in a row here to fall to 18-12 on the season, as garbage time got the best of us last night in the Utah game. Will look to get headed in the right direction again.
Boston at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened -5.5 and the line has dropped to 4.5, as the Celtics have received roughly two-thirds of the wagers so far. The total has shot up from 216.5 to 220 with more than 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over.
Brooklyn at Cleveland: The Nets moved from -9 to -10, while the total has shot up in this one as well, moving from 222 to 225.5 with more than 80% of the wagers.
Detroit at Atlanta: The Hawks opened as 6.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to Atlanta -5 even though the Hawks have received 58% of the early wagers in the game. The Pistons are 3-10 straight-up, but 7-5-1 against the spread, which is all we’re really concerned with. Detroit is 6-3 against the number after a straight-up loss. The Hawks are just 3-5 ATS as a favorite this season, so will take a shot on the Pistons to keep this one close and grab the points.
Memphis at Portland: An interesting game here, as Portland is favored by 1 with a total of 223, which is the second-lowest total the Blazers have played to this season. The total opened 223 and hasn’t moved despite more than 80% of the wagers coming in on the over. The Grizzlies are 2-2-1 in road totals and the Blazers are 3-5-1 in home totals, so going to take a stab on the under 223. Might be a sucker wager, but I’ll go ahead and bite.
1/19/21
Fell to 18-11 on the season, when the Bucks couldn’t get there against the Nets in an entertaining game, but always much more entertaining when you’re on the right side. Just two games on the slate for today, so a quick look at a few trends that have developed this season.
Favorites are struggling a bit, going 87-104-4, while totals are pretty close to that record, with just 45.3% of the games landing over the total so far. Away favorites have performed better, going 40-37-2, meaning home favorites are 47-67 (41.2%). The exception to the rule has been larger favorites, as favorites of 10 or more are 13-5-2 ATS and favorites of 9 or more have gone 17-9-2.
Oklahoma City at Denver: The Nuggets opened as 9-point favorites and the line has climbed to 9.5 with Denver getting 52% of the early wagers in the game. The total has climbed a half-point to 221 with two-thirds of the wagers landing on the over.
New Orleans at Utah: The Jazz have moved from 5.5 to 6 after getting 40% of the wagers in the game, while the total has dropped all the way to 217.5 after opening 220. The under is getting 55% of the wagers, so the move is larger than that would typically suggest. With Utah going 1-7 in totals after a win and teams (New Orleans) who scored 125 or more points last game going 23-31-1 (42.6%) will take the under here, even though we’ve lost a bit of the value.
1/18/21
We climbed to 18-10 on the season on Sunday, but I did drop my two college plays for an ugly 1-2 day. A few early start for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, so we’ll see what we can come up with for Monday.
Orlando at New York: The Magic have moved from -1 to -2 with betting pretty much split down the middle. The Knicks waxed Boston yesterday and teams who won their previous game by at least 30 points are just 4-7 ATS.
Minnesota at Atlanta: The Hawks are 7.5 and the total has dropped from 228.5 to 227.5 even though we’re seeing a few more over wagers. The Hawks have seen their last eight land under the total.
San Antonio at Portland: Big move here, as the Spurs have gone from a 1-point dog to a 2-point favorite with 40% of the wagers. The total climbed a half-point with 75% of the wagers on the over.
Dallas at Toronto: The Raptors have moved from -4 to -5 with betting being pretty much split down the middle. Tempting to take Dallas, but the line movement will just keep me away from this one.
Milwaukee at Brooklyn: The game of the day sees the Bucks favored by 2 and the total all the way at 239. It’s the highest Milwaukee total of the year, while the Nets are 2-1 in totals when the number is that high. The Bucks have been coasting through much of the season, but think they’ll look to make a statement that they’re still the best in the East and will take a shot on the Bucks in this one. The Bucks are just the second team this season to have won their last two games while failing to cover the spread in either one.
Golden State at LA Lakers: The Lakers have moved from -10 to 8.5 even though they’re getting the majority of the wagers in the game. The total has climbed from 225 to 226.5 with 59% of the wagers landing on the over.
1/17/21
We moved to 17-10 on the season when the Magic were able to get the cover against the Nets and now are looking at a bit smaller of a schedule.
New York at Boston: The Celtics opened 6.5 and the line moved to 7.5 and has come back down to 7, with close to 60% of the wagers coming in on New York. Wanted to take New York here, but with the public on the Knicks and the line not quite where I wanted, will just pass on this one.
Chicago at Dallas: The Mavs have moved from 7.5 to -7 after getting just one-third of the wagers here. Dallas is 3-1 after a loss this season, while the Bulls have covered 5 of their last 6 and beat Dallas earlier this year.
Philadelphia at Oklahoma City: The 76ers have moved from -4 to 2.5 in this one, with Oklahoma City getting 55% of the bets, so a slightly bigger move than we should be seeing.
Utah at Denver: The Jazz are getting some play in this one, as Denver opened -3 and now the line is down to 1 with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on Denver. The total opened 219 and has stayed there with more than 75% of the wagers on the over, so will go the other way and take a shot on the under in this one.
New Orleans at Sacramento: The Pelicans have moved from -2 to -2.5 on pretty mixed betting, while the total has dropped from 230 to 226.5 with more than 70% of the wagers on the under. Trends are split in this one, as New Orleans scored just 95 points last game and teams who scored 95 or fewer last game are just 11-31-1 in totals this season, while the Kings are 5-2 in totals after a loss, so will just stay away. Neither team scored more than 100 last game and games involving two teams who scored 100 or fewer are 2-8 in totals this year.
1/16/21
Dropped to 16-10 on the season with a clunker on the Cavs game, as a high-scoring second-quarter did me in. A tough schedule for Saturday, so will see what we can do.
Houston at San Antonio: The Spurs have moved from 6.5 to 7 in what is a quick revenge game for them, as the Rockets won their first game without Harden. The total here has dropped from 219.5 to 217.5.
Orlando at Brooklyn: The Nets are favored by 9 in this one and the Magic are reeling. Orlando has lost four straight games and none of them have been particularly close. Going to go ahead and give Orlando a shot in this one and look for them to play a little better than they have, in part due to the circus of the Nets just picking up Harden.
Charlotte at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 7 after just having pulled out a close three-point here on Thursday. The Raptors just aren’t playing that well and a little tough to lay points with them in this one.
Philadelphia at Memphis: The 76ers have moved from -3.5 to -1 on the road in this one, while the total has moved slightly to 220.5 at the majority of sportsbooks.
Atlanta at Portland: The Blazers have moved from 5.5 to 4.5 even though Portland is getting more than 70% of the early wagers in this one, which is enough to keep me off of them in a spot I was giving the Blazers a look. The total has dropped from 237 to 234.5 with more than 70% of the wagers coming in on the under, as Atlanta’s offensive has quite been what some people were calling for earlier this season.
1/15/.21
We moved to 16-9 on the season when the Pacers won in Portland and now have a decent-sized slate of games, with a few decent ones on tap.
New York at Cleveland: The Knicks opened -2.5 and the line is now Knicks -2, while the total has dropped quite a bit, going from 203 to 197.5 even though most of the wagers have come in on the over. The first-half total is 100 and I’m going to take a shot on the under for the first half. I have this one 48-44 in favor of the Cavs. Both teams have labored to score in the first half recently, with New York scoring 43.8 points and the Cavaliers averaging just 42 points over their last five games.
Orlando at Boston: The Magic opened -1 and the Celtics are now favored by 3 in a pretty big line move, as the Celtics return to action after the team’s Covid issues.
Memphis at Minnesota: The Timberwolves opened -3.5 and the line has dropped to Minnesota -2 even though the home team is getting two-thirds of the wagers in the game. It’s a quick revenge game for Minnesota, but Memphis has won three straight.
New Orleans at Lakers: Another game with a reverse move, as the Lakers have moved from -8.5 and moved to 10 even though Los Angeles is just getting 37% of the early wagers in the game. The total opened 222 and dropped to 218.5 even with more than three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over.
1/14/21
We dropped our replacement play Wednesday to fall to 15-9 on the season. The Suns game was postponed about 10 minutes after I posted, so took a shot on the Nets under, but a few too many points in the second half. A bit of a tough card for Thursday.
Miami at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened -11 and the line has dropped to 10.5 with Miami getting 58% of the wagers. The total has climbed from 222.5 to 223.5 with about three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over.
Charlotte at Toronto: The Raptors have moved from -7 to -9 in another game played at Amalie Arena. It’s a little hard to lay that type of number with Toronto, who really isn’t playing all that well right now. The total has dipped slightly from 220.5 to 219.5.
Houston at San Antonio: The Spurs have moved from -6 to -7 in a game that has seen pretty even betting. The loss of Harden will hurt, although it’s not as though he was helping the team win much. Houston will be better off in the long run with the four first-round picks and the big man from the Pacers, but it will take a bit of time.
Golden State at Denver: The line has moved from Nuggets -6 to Denver -5 on pretty mixed betting. The number does seem a little bit low. The total has dipped three and a half points on pretty mixed betting.
Indiana at Portland: The Blazers are -3 and the line has held there with the Pacers getting a slight majority of the wagers. A few of the trends point to Indiana, so will take a shot on the road dog in this one for today’s play.
1/13/21
Managed to hang on with the under in the Lakers game to move to 15-8 on the season and now we’re faced with another day that sees a few postponed games. The league is stepping up its COVID-19 protocols, so hopefully they’ll be able to get the number of cases down a bit.
Our lone play for the day was just postponed, so back again with a quick look at a few others games on today’s slate.
Milwaukee at Detroit: The Bucks moved from 11.5 to 10.5 and the total dropped from 227.5 to 226.5. The Bucks are getting the majority of the wagers in the game.
Brooklyn at New York: This one opened Brooklyn -5 and 218.5 and the line has climbed to Nets -6 and the total has climbed to 219.5 after 65% of the wagers came in on the over. Teams who scored fewer than 100 points their previous game are just 17-35-2 in totals. If the total is 225 or higher, those teams have gone 9-6-1 in totals, meaning those 224.5 and lower are just 8-29-1 in totals, so will take a shot on the under 219.5 in this one.
Memphis at Minnesota: The total in this one has climbed from 220 to 221.5 even though we’ve only seen 51% of the early wagers come in on the over, which is enough to make me a little hesitant to take the under in this one, even though it also falls into the same 8-29-1 over/under situation listed above.
Portland at Sacramento: The Blazers opened -6 and the line has dropped to 3.5 with the betting split down the middle, while the total on the game has climbed slightly to 236.5 with pretty good two-way action there, as well.
1/12/21
The daily guessing game that is known as the NBA has already seen one game postponed today, but the others look to be good to go. We moved to 14-8 when the Raptors got the cover in Portland.
Miami at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 7 in this one and the total has climbed slightly to 209.5. The Heat are going to be missing a number of players, while Philadelphia hadn’t turned in an injury report as of Monday night. The 76ers were also fined $25,000 for a violation of injury reporting protocols, but with a game on Monday aren’t required to report injuries for tonight’s game until later today.
Utah at Cleveland: Utah has moved from -9 to 10.5 on pretty mixed betting, while the total has dropped from 211.5 all the way to 205. Two-thirds of the totals wagers have come in on the over.
Denver at Brooklyn: This one is even with pretty mixed betting after the Nets opened -1. The total here has climbed from 228 to 231 with 63% of the early wagers landing on the over.
Lakers at Houston: The Lakers opened -3.5 and the line has climbed to 5.5, even though the betting has been pretty much right down the middle. The total opened at 223 and is down to 222 with 75% of the wagers coming in on the over, so I’ll look to go the other way and take the under in this one. The Lakers are 0-3 in totals after scoring 120 or more points this season and 1-6 following a victory. Away favorites are 8-11-1 in totals after scoring more than 120 points.
1/11/21
Dropped to 13-8 on the season when the Clippers didn’t put forth much effort against New York in a game where they closed even higher than we grabbed them at. Tough slate today, with several unknowns, as the NBA injury list is getting pretty lengthy.
Toronto at Portland: The Blazers opened -4 and the line has moved to 5, while the total on this one has dropped from 233 to 230.5. This is a spot that looks pretty good for the Blazers, but going to go the other way and take the Raptors, who have been a disappointment so far this year. Toronto is just 2-7 straight-up and against the spread and is coming off a loss at Golden State last night. Teams playing with no rest following a loss have gone 15-9-1 this season, while teams in Portland’s situation of having won their last two games are 20-34 ATS this year. The Blazers rolled over Sacramento in their last game and teams coming off a 20-point or more win are just 11-17 against the spread this season and 3-9 ATS if they won by more than 25. With the trends all pointing towards the Raptors will take a shot on Toronto +5 in this one.
Memphis at Cleveland: Memphis has climbed all the way to 2.5 after the Cavs opened -2, but the road team is getting 90% of the early wagers in the game. Hard to disagree with those backing Memphis, but in no hurry to jump on the bandwagon of this one either.
Indiana at Sacramento: A game that has also seen a huge move, the Pacers opened -2 and the line has jumped to 5.5 with the Pacers getting 65% of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped all the way from 233 to 227 with the majority of the wagers on the under, but nothing that would call for a 6-point line move.
1/10/21
We moved to 13-7 on the season Saturday, which was the lone bright spot of the day. The COVID list is climbing for a number of teams and is something that should be checked daily.
Utah at Detroit: The Jazz moved from 6.5 to 8.5 even though they’re getting just 40% of the wagers, while the total has moved from 216.5 to 219.5.
Chicago at LA Clippers: The Clippers have moved from -9.5 to -11 even though Chicago is getting 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped from 226 to 221.5. Going to take a stab on the Clippers in this one due to the Bulls having a few COVID cases.
Oklahoma City at Brooklyn: The Nets dropped from 9.5 to 8.5 in this one, while the total has climbed from 220 up to 226. Irving is officially listed as a game-time decision but think he will be in the line-up based on the move with the total.
Miami at Boston: The Heat have moved from 3.5 to 7.5 recently, so have to think the Celtics are going to be without several players who were listed as a game-time decision.
LA Lakers at Houston: The Lakers have moved from -4 to -3 even though they’re getting more than 60% of the wagers in the game, while the total has climbed 4.5 points with 60% of the wagers on the under.
Toronto at Golden State: The Raptors have moved from 2 to 3-point favorites on pretty mixed betting, while the total has climbed four points to 233.5.
1/9/21
We’re seeing a lot of line movement Saturday morning as word comes out regarding who will be playing tonight and who will not, with a few of the moves pretty big. We were ahead of the biggest move last night in the Brooklyn game, as Memphis went from +4.5 to +2 and ended up closing -1 in their victory over the Nets.
Denver at Philadelphia: The Nuggets have moved from -3 to -5.5 due to the COVID problems of Philadelphia. Who plays will remain to be seen, but the team does need eight players to be suited up for the game to take place. The possibility of it being canceled will keep me away from this one.
Miami at Washington: The Heat have climbed to -6.5 in this one, while the total is down a point to 230. Miami is 2-4-1 in totals, while Washington is 6-3.
Atlanta at Charlotte: The Hawks have climbed to -5.5 and the total is at 227.5. Atlanta was expected to be a scoring machine this year but haven’t scored 115 points in their last four games and are 2-6 in totals this year.
Phoenix at Indiana: The Pacers have moved from 2.5 to 3.5-point favorites and the total has dropped a little, moving from 217 to 215.5 with more than 60% of the wagers on the over. The Suns are jut 2-7 in totals this season.
San Antonio at Minnesota: The Spurs have moved from -6 to -5 in this one, which is the first of a back-to-back in Minnesota. Towns is listed as questionable for this game after being injured in the second game of the year. San Antonio is getting a little more than 60% of the wagers this game, so will take a shot on Minnesota, as road favorites off a win are just 10-15-1 this season.
Cleveland at Milwaukee: The Bucks have gone from 15.5 to 12.5 in this one and the total is 222, which is the lowest Milwaukee has seen this year. The Bucks are 2-0 this year when the total is 225 or lower, but were just 12-21 a year ago.
1/8/21
Have dropped the last two here to fall to 11-7 on the season in the NBA and 28-22 overall in hoops, which is 56%, so no complaints so far. Do need to get the NBA plays back on track and will introduce stats into the equation in the next day or two. We’ve seen a few good-sized reverse moves today.
Phoenix at Detroit: The Suns have moved from 6.5 to -7 with pretty mixed betting, while the total has dropped from 218.5 to 216.5 even though two-thirds of the wagers have been on the over.
Oklahoma City at New York: The Knicks opened -3.5 and the line has dropped to 2.5 on pretty mixed betting, while the total has remained at its opening number of 209.5 despite close to three-quarters of the wagers landing on the over in this one.
Utah at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened -8 and the line dipped all the way to Bucks -5, but has come back up to 5.5 in a game that is seeing pretty mixed betting. The total has dropped from 236 to 231.
Orlando at Houston: The Rockets have moved from -4.5 to -5.5 after earlier reaching 6, even though the Magic are getting more than 60% of the early wagers in the game. The total has also dropped 6.5 points to 224.5.
Brooklyn at Memphis: Brooklyn opened -4.5 and the line is now down to 2 even though 65% of the wagers are coming in on the Nets. The total has dropped 4.5 points from its opening. Will take a shot on Memphis +2 in this one.
1/7/21
Dropped to 11-6, as the Kings came up a few points shy of getting the cover on Wednesday, as several of the reverse moves came through, but chose the wrong one. That’ going to happen, as the best NBA handicappers are typically in the 55-57% range. We’re almost at the point where we’ll start using stats and trends in the equation, particularly how teams fare after wins and losses. But line movement is also part of the equation, as that’s one thing that can’t be hidden.
Philadelphia at Brooklyn: Money coming in against the 76ers once again, as the line opened Philadelphia -3 and has moved to 1.5 despite the visitors getting a small majority of the wagers. The Nets will be without Durant, which makes the move a little strange. Games involving two teams have gone 18-24 in totals, while teams who allowed 130 or more points the previous day and won are 6-13 ATS, while totals in those games are 7-12 ATS. More than 80% of the wagers are coming in on the over here, so going to go against the public here and try the under.
Cleveland at Memphis: Memphis has moved from -3.5 to -5 with 60% of the wagers, so maybe a slightly bigger move than you’d expect to see. The Cavs are 0-2-1 in totals this season after a loss, failing to score 100 points in any of the three games. The total has dropped all the way from 214 to 210 with more than 70% of the wagers on the under.
Minnesota at Portland: The Blazers opened -10 and the line has held steady with pretty mixed betting, while the total has moved slightly from 233.5 to 233 with the majority of wagers on the over. Teams who were favored by 5 or more and lost their previous game have gone 4-9-1 in totals this season when they’re favored in their next game.
Dallas at Denver: The Nuggets have held at -2.5 despite getting 62% of the early wagers in the game, while the total has dropped from 226 to 224 with 70% of the wagers on the over. The Nuggets are 12-8-3 dating back to last season at home with a total of 220 or higher.
San Antonio at Los Angeles: The Lakers have moved from -7.5 to -6.5 with the Spurs getting 54% of the early wagers in the game. The Lakers won two games in San Antonio last week, so this could be a bit of a flat spot for them here, making it tough to call.
1/6/21
We moved to 11-5 on the season when the Grizzlies covered against the Lakers and today have quite a few games where we have reverse line moves.
Houston at Indiana: The Pacers have moved from 1.5 to 2.5 after getting 40% of the wagers in the game. Indiana is 5-2 on the season but both losses have come at home. The total has also dipped a half-point to 225.5 with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over.
Washington at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened -8 and the line is now down to 6.5 even though the 76ers have received more than 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has climbed 1.5 points to 232.5 with the betting being pretty much even on the total.
Boston at Miami: The Heat opened -3.5 and the line has dropped to 2.5, with Miami getting 54% of the early wagers in the game. The total has held at 218 with 58% of the early bets on the over.
Utah at New York: The Jazz have moved from -6 to -7 with jut 40% of the early bets in this one. The total has dropped two full points from 215 to 213 even though the betting has been pretty much split down the middle.
Oklahoma City at New Orleans: New Orleans opened -8 and the line has remained there despite the home team getting a little more than 60% of the early wagers in the game.
Chicago at Sacramento: The Kings opened -6 and the line has climbed to 7 even though Sacramento has just received 42% of the wagers. The Bulls won last night in Portland, giving them wins over the Mavs and Blazers in back-to-back games. Teams who won their last two games as underdogs have only covered 47.2% of the time when they’re installed as away underdogs and 46.2% of the time when they’re dogs of 5 or more points. The record falls to 62-77-2 (44.6%) if they’re playing with no rest, so will take a shot on the Kings in this one and lay the 7.
1/5/21
Outsmarted myself yesterday, taking the Raptors on one of those lines that looked a little too good to be true, but the Celtics came up with a solid effort. The loss drops us to 10-5 on the season and we’re faced with a small slate of games for Tuesday.
Utah at Brooklyn: The loss of Durant is making itself felt with the line in this one, as the Nets were going to be favored by 3 but now the Jazz are favored by 4.5, which might be a little bit of over-compensation in this one. But with the Nets already missing Dinwiddie, it’s hard to back them in this one.
Lakers at Memphis: The Lakers opened -9.5 and the line has dropped to LA -9 in this one after the Lakers received 65% of the early wagers in the game. The Lakers just won by 14 points on Sunday, so going to take a shot on the Grizzlies +9 in this one. The Lakers defeated San Antonio by 14 last week and then came back and defeated them by 6 in the rematch and we have a similar situation here. The Lakers return home after this one and might not be entirely focused on the game.
Minnesota at Denver: The Nuggets are favored by 11 after opening as 12-point favorites, while the total has moved from 228 to 225.5 even though we’re seeing more over wagers than under bets. Denver just won by 15 points, but do have the Mavs on deck.
Chicago at Portland: The Blazers opened -10 and the number dropped to 9 with the betting being pretty much split down the middle. The total has dropped a point to 232.5, although we’re seeing a few more over wagers than under bets. The Blazers were just thumped by Golden State.
1/4/21
We climbed to 10-4 for the season with the Warriors going over the total on Sunday and now have somewhat of an ugly slate of games ahead of us for Monday. We’ll stick to what we’ve been doing so far.
Charlotte at Philadelphia: This game hasn’t moved off the opening numbers of 76ers -9.5 and 219 on the total even though the Hornets are getting close to 60% of the early wagers and two-thirds of the totals bets are coming in on the over. The 76ers are just 1-5 in totals this season, going over the number in their last game. Teams who scored at least 125 points in their previous game are just 8-14-1 in totals this season after going 49.7% last season.
Boston at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 3 in this one, which seems a little bit out of whack considering Toronto is just 1-4 straight-up this season. The game opened Raptors -2.5 and has moved to 3 even with the Celtics getting 60% of the early wagers in the game. The Celtic did eliminate Toronto from the playoffs last season, so you know it’s a game Toronto will be ready for and going to take a shot on the Raptors -3 in this one.
Indiana at New Orleans: This one opened even and now the Pelicans are -1.5 after getting 70% of the early wagers in this one, which makes sense. The total is a different story, however, as the game opened 218 and is now 219 even though there have been a few more under wagers come in. There isn’t quite enough movement for a play, but it bears watching throughout the day to see if the number continues to move.
Sacramento at Golden State: The Kings are favored by 2.5 after opening -2 and getting close to two-thirds of the early wagers. The total opened 232 and has climbed to 232.5 with 65% of the wagers on the over. Part of that could be a bit of an over-reaction to Golden State’s 137 point outburst last night. The Kings are coming off an ugly 94-point effort against the Rockets.
1/3/21
We moved to 9-4 on Saturday and now have a bit of a small slate of games to look at on Sunday. We’re still a few games short of being able to use a statistical base, so we’ll look at the games, line movement and betting percentages.
Washington at Brooklyn: The Nets opened -8.5 and the line has held pretty steady even though Brooklyn is getting more than 70% of the early wagers. The total has dropped a little bit from 241 to 239.5 with close to three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the under.
Denver at Minnesota: The Nuggets opened -8 and the line is now 8.5 with Denver getting 55% of the early wagers in the game. The total on this one has taken a bit of a nosedive, having opened at 232 and is now 227 with close to three-quarters of the wagers in this one coming in on the under.
Clippers at Suns: The Clippers have moved from -1.5 to -3 after getting 62% of the early wagers in the game. The total opened at 221 and is now at 218 even though we’ve seen close to 60% of the wagers on the over. The Suns are 0-6 in totals this season, although there’s no real trends that appear when looking at other teams in the same situation.
Portland at Golden State: The Blazers have moved from -4 to -5 after getting more than 80% of the early wagers in the game, while the total has moved from 234.5 to 233.5 with 67% of the bets coming in on the under. The total on Friday was 237 and the teams combined for 221 points with some poor shooting. Portland was decent from 3-point range, but just 43.5% from the field overall, while the Warriors were below 40% from the field and were a dismal 7 for 35 in 3-pointers. Going to go against the grain here and take a shot on the over in this one.
1/3/21
We split our two system plays on Friday to fall to 8-4 ATS on the season and now we have a bit of a smaller schedule for Saturday.
Sacramento at Houston: The Rockets opened -4 and are now up to 4.5, while the total has climbed slightly from 233 to 233.5. The game betting is pretty much split down the middle, while two-thirds of the wagers are coming in on the over.
Charlotte at Philadelphia: The 76ers moved from 9.5 to 10, while the total has moved from 213.5 to 216. The Hornets are getting 58% of the side wagers.
Oklahoma City at Orlando: There’s been little movement in this one, which opened Magic -7.5 and 218.5 and the numbers are still right there. The Magic are coming off their first loss of the season.
New York at Indiana: The Pacers opened -9 and the line is still there despite Indiana getting 65% of the wagers. The total opened at 215 and the line hasn’t budged despite 75% of the wagers coming in on the over. Teams who scored fewer than 100 points last game are just 4-12-2 in totals this season, so will go ahead and take the under here, primarily due to the lack of line movement.
Toronto at New Orleans: The Raptors have moved from -1 to -1.5 with pretty good two-way action on the side, while the total opened at 216 and dropped to 214.5 before bouncing back to 215.5, with a slight majority of the wagers in the game landing on the over.
Cleveland at Atlanta: The Hawks opened -6.5 and the number has dropped to 6 with the Cavs getting a slight majority of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped quite a bit, opening at 234.5 and falling all the way to 229.5 with the betting being pretty well split down the middle on the total.
1/1/21
We climbed to 7-3 on the season with the over in the Washington game last night, so no complaints so far, where we’re using line movement and betting percentages as our primary tool, while also jumping in on an occasional situational play, as will be the case today.
Memphis at Charlotte: Charlotte opened -2 and the line has climbed to 4 with the home team getting three-quarters of the wagers in the game, while the total opened at 220 and has held pretty steady, with a few more places having the game at 219.5, and close to two-thirds of the wagers are coming in on the over, so somebody likes the under in this one.
Atlanta at Brooklyn: The Nets opened -6 and the line has moved to Brooklyn -6.5 even though the betting has been pretty even in the game. The total opened at 247 and is now down to 245 even though we’ve seen more than 60% of the wagers on the over. Teams who scored 130 points their previous game and lost are 16-23-2 as away underdogs and just 9-21-2 when getting five points or more, so will take a shot on the Nets in this one.
Chicago at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened -14 over the Bulls and the line has inched up to 14.5 after Milwaukee received 58% of the early wagers. Teams who won their previous game while allowing 130 or more points are just 45-73-3 in their next game and just 18-41-1 ATS when they’re underdogs. If the team in question is getting 8 or more points the record falls to 4-15 ATS, so going to have to take the Bucks in this one for our second and final play of the day.
Portland at Golden State: The Blazers opened -4 in this one and the line has dropped slightly to Portland -3.5 even though the Blazers are getting three-quarters of the bets in the game. The total has shot up in this one, moving from 230.5 to 235 with 75% of the wagers coming in on the over.
12/31/20
We moved to 6-3 on the season when we snuck in there under the total in San Antonio and now have a fairly small slate of games on the schedule.
Cleveland at Indiana: The Pacers are favored by 8 in this one and the total has moved from 217 to 219 on pretty even betting, so somebody likes the over a little bit. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season last time out and both were over teams last season after a loss.
Chicago at Washington: The Wizards opened -5 and the line has climbed to 6.5, while the total has moved from 234.5 to 237 with 45% of the wagers coming in on the over. Going to take a stab on the over in this one.
Philadelphia at Orlando: The 76ers opened -2 and the line is now up to 3 even though the Magic are getting the majority of the wagers in this one. Home underdogs who have won at least four games and not suffered a loss are just 1-5 ATS over the years, although the sample size is definitely on the small side.
Sacramento at Houston: A couple of big moves in this one, with the Rockets moving from -3 to 5.5 and the total climbing from 227 all the way to 231. John Wall is eligible to return for this one and a big win wouldn’t be a shock, but no point forcing the issue in this game.
New York at Toronto: The Raptors opened 9.5 and the line has stayed there with the betting being pretty much split down the middle. The Knicks are coming off a win against the Cavs and this line seems a little on the high side, but want no part of New York in this one. The Raptors are still winless on the season and it can’t be attributed to being out of their home country, but they’re a better team than they’ve shown so far.
12/30/20
We moved to 5-3 on the season in the NBA last night and have a smaller schedule for today. The wise guys have made a couple of stands on the games today.
Memphis at Boston: The Celtics opened -8.5 and the line has dropped down to 6.5 even though Boston is getting 63% of the wagers in the game. The total has also made a big dip, moving from 224 to 219 even though the betting on the total is pretty much split down the middle.
Milwaukee at Miami: Quick revenge game for the Heat, who were completely waxed last night by the Bucks and their outside shooting. The Bucks opened -6 and the line has dropped slightly to 5.5 with Milwaukee getting 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has also dropped from 227.5 to 226.5.
Atlanta at Brooklyn: The Nets have moved from -6.5 to -7 after getting more than 60% of the early wagers, while the total opened at 240 and is still there even though two-thirds of the wagers are coming in on the under. Games with totals this high were pretty even last season.
Charlotte at Dallas: The Mavs have moved from 8.5 to -8 after getting close to 70% of the wagers in the game, while the total has climbed from 223.5 to 224.5 with a few more wagers landing on the over.
Lakers at San Antonio: The Lakers opened -6.5 and the line has moved to Los Angeles -5 after the Lakers received 80% of the early wagers in the game. The total opened 229.5 and has stayed there despite 80% of the wagers coming in on the over, so going to take a shot on the under 229.5 in this one.
12/29/30
We took the back door hard last night, as Atlanta blew a 21-point fourth-quarter lead and only won by 8 against a short-handed Detroit team. The loss knocks us down to 4-3 on the season.
Boston at Indiana: The Celtics opened -1 and the line has stayed there, despite Boston getting close to 75% of the early wagers in the game. The Pacers won 108-107 two nights ago, so this is a tough one to get a read on.
Golden State at Detroit: Another game where the Warriors are favored on the road, although this time the line has been bet up to 4.5. The Pistons played last night and Golden State was able to rest, but no interest in taking the Warriors as a road favorite.
New York at Cleveland: Strange line movement here, as the Cavaliers opened -4.5 and the line is down to 3.5 even though the Cavs have received more than 80% of the early wagers. The Knicks could be due for a bit of a letdown after blowing out Milwaukee, while the Cavs thumped Philadelphia last time out. I might be falling for a trap, but going to go ahead and take a shot on the Knicks +3.5 against an undefeated Cleveland squad.
Milwaukee at Miami: The Bucks opened -5 and have been bet up to 5.5 in this one and it’s hard to take Milwaukee as such a large road favorite. The only team Milwaukee has beaten this year is Golden State. The Bucks have been good about rebounding from poor efforts and this is a huge revenge spot for Milwaukee. Still, the Heat will be looking to show the Eastern Conference Finals were no fluke last year, so a good game to watch, but probably not to wager on.
12/28/20
Some strange line movement for Monday in the NBA, with bettors taking a couple of stands. We still lack enough games to have any sort of statistical foundation, so we’ll stick to what we’ve been doing so far this season and follow line movement, trends and situational plays.
Memphis at Brooklyn: The Nets opened -7 and the line is down to 6.5 even though the home team is getting roughly two-thirds of the early wagers in the game. The Nets are coming off a loss at the hands of the Hornets on Sunday, while the Grizzlies have dropped their first two games. Memphis was a decent under team after a loss a year ago.
Detroit at Atlanta: The Hawks are favored by 10 and the total has dropped to 223 after opening at 226.5 and seeing close to 60% of the wagers come in on the over. The Hawks were expected to be a solid over team this season, but their first two games have landed under the number. The Pistons have lost both games this season. Blake Griffin will miss the game for the Pistons, which probably has a bit to do with both moves. Derrick Rose will also miss the game, so will take a shot on the Hawks -10 in this one.
Utah at Oklahoma City: The Jazz have moved from 5 to 8.5, while the total has dropped down to 218 after opening at 221. The Thunder have only played one game so far this season, so not really sure what to expect out of them and will just stay clear of this one.
Houston at Denver: The Nuggets opened -9 and the line is down to 6.5, as the Rockets are still short-handed, but will have Harden in the line-up once again. He had a solid game against Portland, but the Blazers are known to be a little bit lax on defense at times.
Portland at LA Lakers: The Lakers opened as 4.5-point favorites in this one and the line is down to 4 with LA getting more than 80% of the wagers in the game. The Lakers could be without James and Anthony Davis both, and there’s really no need to get involved until you know more about the status of LA’s big two, so will just skip this game for now.
12/27/20
A couple of decent games on today’s NBA slate, along with a couple of stinkers. As usual, we’ll look at a few of the games and try to come up with something until we have a few more games to fall upon for some sort of statistical base. We’re 2-2 in the early going, alternating wins and losses.
Dallas at LA Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 5 in this one, which is now on the boards everywhere after being off at a few places earlier this morning. The Mavs have started off in ugly form, while the Clippers have been impressive so far. Will go ahead and take a shot on the Mavs +5 in this one.
Orlando at Washington: We’ve seen a switch in the favorite in this one, as the Wizards opened -1.5 and now the Magic are favored by 1 after getting close to 75% of the wagers in the game. The total has shot up four points to 229.5 after opening 225.5.
Philadelphia at Cleveland: The 76ers opened 5.5 and 218.5 and Philadelphia is now favored by 7 and the total has dropped to 217 despite 60% of the wagers on the over. The 76ers have played good defense in their first two games, while the Cavs have scored 120 points in each of their first two games, but needed a pair of overtimes last game to get there. Both teams were under teams after victories last season, so will take a shot on the under in this one.
Golden State at Chicago: The Warriors are favored by 3.5 in this one after opening -2 and Golden State is just the fourth team in the past 25 years to be favored on the road after back-to-back losses of 25 points or more. No interest in touching this game.
Phoenix at Sacramento: A rematch of our win last night and the Suns are favored by 3 after opening as 3.5-point favorites. Both teams were dismal from 3-point range, which is a large reason why scoring was down. The Suns were 11 for 44 and the Kings were 5 for 23. Phoenix missed its first 16 3-pointers and can’t see that happening again. The total has climbed to 226.5 after opening at 224.5. Wanted to take the over here, but not really interested in having three plays for the day when there’s only a couple of games to fall on for stats.
12/26/20
Expected a little more from the Nuggets last night, as we fall to 1-2 in the NBA to start the season. Still taking it easy until we get some sort of statistical base to fall on, as we still have just a few games in the books. Will look at a few where we’ve seen some line movement or other interesting factors.
Atlanta at Memphis: The Hawks opened -1 in this one and now the Grizzlies are favored by 1.5 and the total has climbed to 238, making this just the fourth game we’ve ever seen in the first month of play with a total so high. Would like to take the over, but a strong situational system on the under here, so will just stay away.
Cleveland at Detroit: Big drop on the total here, which has dipped all the way to 213 after first opening at 220. The Pistons have moved from -3 to -2 on pretty mixed betting.
Oklahoma City at Charlotte: Charlotte opened -3 and the line has held steady despite the home team seeing 63% of the wagers in the game. This is the first game of the season for Oklahoma City after their previous game was postponed.
Toronto at San Antonio: The Raptors opened -2 and the line has still stayed there with the road team getting 56% of the wagers. The Raptors are probably just as familiar with the site of today’s game as they are with Amalie Arena, so not sure if playing on the road is going to be a real detriment to them or not in this spot. The total has climbed a half-point up to 226 despite there being more wagers on the under than on the over.
Phoenix at Sacramento: The Suns opened as 4.5-point favorites in this one and the line has dropped to 3.5, with Phoenix getting nearly three-quarters of the wagers in the game. The Kings showed some heart, winning at Denver opening day, while the Suns took care of Dallas on opening day, as both teams did catch their foes at a good time, with the Mavs scheduled to face the Lakers in Game 2 and the Nuggets doing battle with the Clippers in Game 2. Not so sure the Suns should be such large favorites in this one and will take a shot on the home dog in this one.
Houston at Portland: The Blazers opened -9 over the Rockets, who will be without John Wall, Eric Gordon, DeMarcus Cousins and most likely one or two more. Surprisingly the line has dropped down to 7.5 and Houston is getting the majority of the wagers so far. The total has climbed to 226.
12/25/20
The usual NBA all-day slate of games on Christmas Day, although this time we don’t really have a whole lot in the way of stats to fall on, so as I’ve mentioned before, we’ll do the best we can looking at other factors until there’s a few more games to build upon.
New Orleans at Miami: This one opened Miami -5 and the line has dropped to 3.5 even though the betting on the game has been pretty even. It appears to be a good spot for the Heat, who are coming off a loss as a road favorite, while New Orleans is coming off a win as a road dog, although that situation has only gone 58-55-1 over the years, but was 4-1 ATS last season. Really wanted to take the Heat here, but going to stay away, with Miami having Milwaukee up next.
Golden State at Milwaukee: The Bucks have moved from 7.5 to -10 and it’s hard to do anything in this one but take the Bucks. Milwaukee was 7-4 ATS after a loss last season up until the shutdown and 5-1 when favored by 10 or more after a loss. The Warriors were 6-4 ATS as double-digit dogs coming off a double-digit loss, including a 107-98 loss at the hands of Milwaukee in a covering effort. As mentioned above, the Bucks have the Heat up next, so not entirely sure how motivated they’ll be here, although due to the talent difference it may not matter.
Brooklyn at Boston: The Nets are favored by 3 in this one and it’s a tough spot for the Celtics, who are off the win over the Bucks, although they should be up for the Nets. Brooklyn looked tough in its opening game, but it’s only one game and want to see a little more.
Dallas at Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 6 over the Mavs and both teams are coming off losses. Dallas fell to the Suns and the Lakers dropped their game to the Clippers. The Mavs have the Clippers up next, where they’ll be looking for some redemption, and that will keep me off of them in this one.
LA Clippers at Denver: The Clippers are favored by 2.5 over the Nuggets and going to take Denver plus the points in this one. Denver was most likely looking ahead to this one when they fell to the Kings and the Clippers are coming off their win against the Lakers and know they have the Mavs on tap.
12/23/20
Huge slate of NBA games for Wednesday and the toughest part of being a statistical handicapper is the early season when there’s no data to really fall back upon. So we’ll primarily track line moves and look for obvious situational spots until we get some numbers to fall back on.
We’ll look at some of the games where we’ve seen decent movement and see what we can come up with.
Charlotte at Cleveland: The Cavs opened as a 1-point favorite but the line has flopped and now Charlotte has received more than 80% of the wagers to become 2.5-point favorites. The Cavs are without Kevin Love in the early going.
Washington at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened as 8-point favorites and the line has stayed there, while the total has help at 229 despite two-thirds of the wagers being on the over and also on the 76ers. Would have expected slight moves in both the spread and the total.
Milwaukee at Boston: The Bucks have moved from 2.5 to 4.-point favorites and are getting close to 70% of the wagers in the game. This one is probably a little bigger for the Celtics, but not sure they have the horses to keep up with the Bucks.
New Orleans at Toronto: This one is being played in Tampa, which is the temporary home for the Raptors. Toronto opened -5 and the line has dropped to 4 with the road team getting the majority of wagers here. The total has moved to 228.5 from 230 with the betting pretty much split down the middle. Going to take a shot on the under in this one, as it’s an unfamiliar court for both teams and it could be a bit of an adjustment shooting.
Atlanta at Chicago: The total in this one is the big story, as the game has moved from 227 to 232 with 70% of the wagers on the over. Hard to argue the line move, as Atlanta could be a solid offense/no defense type of team this season, but a lot of value gone on the over.
Oklahoma City at Houston: The Rockets have moved to -8 and not so sure how Houston will fare as a larger favorite this season until the Harden saga is straightened out.
Sacramento at Denver: The Nuggets opened -8 and the line is still there at most places with Denver getting roughly 60% of the wagers in the game. Would like to take Denver here, but with a showdown against the Clippers up on Christmas, not really interested in laying the points.
12/22/20
We start a brand-new NBA season today and I have to say we’re entering this year behind the 8-ball a little more than usual this year. Typically, we can rely on last year’s ending statistics a little bit to get a read on teams, although that’s not really the case this season. We saw plenty of teams not worry about playing defense in the bubble, which has distorted team scoring averages a bit.
Since I rely on stats so much for the NBA, we’ll tread lightly at the beginning, looking for trends, situational plays and line movement as the key to wagers, at least until we have a bit of a statistical foundation.
There’s been the typical player movement in the short offseason, and that will have an impact on the lines we see in the beginning and you really can’t go off preseason scores, as plenty of players are just going through the motions, with the regular season just around the corner.
Golden State at Brooklyn Nets: The Nets opened as 5.5-point favorites and the line has climbed all the way to 7.5, with Brooklyn getting 57% of the wagers, so not entirely sure the move should be as large as it is. The total has climbed all the way from 228 to 232 with two-thirds of the wagers on the over. The big storyline here is Kevin Durant going up against his former team, although he said it’s not really that big of a deal. The Warriors are going to be without Klay Thompson for the season and Draymond Green is going to miss this one with a foot injury, leaving little help for Steph Curry. James Wiseman will be a good one, but not so sure he’ll come out of the gate strong, as big men usually take a little while longer to get going.
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers: Another good one here, as the defending champions are favored by 3 and the total has dropped down to 220 on pretty mixed betting. The Lakers are getting 70% of the wagers in the game, which is why the game has moved from 2.5 to 3. The Clippers were just 4-4 as an away dog last year, while going 2-6 in totals in those games. With all four matchups between the two squads landing under the number, will take a shot on the under in this one.
