Update: We finished the season with a 142-128 record, which is 52.6%, and a profit of 1.2 units. A long season to show such a small profit, but it’s better than the majority of bettors will do. Unlike last season, the playoffs were good to us, as we finished 46-35 (56.8%) betting every single game. Having fun and making a little bit of money in the process is what it’s all about.
July 20 Write-Up
We’re faced with could well be the last NBA season of the year, as we’ll essentially finish the year pretty much even, as we bring a 141-128 record into tonight, having gone 96-93 in the regular season and 45-35 in the playoffs coming into tonight’s game. Obviously, was hoping to do a little better, but with COVID and everything else going on, can’t really complain too much, as it was a decent learning experience, especially regarding first-half lines and totals. I had never really delved into them too terribly much until this year and picked-up a few things, so already looking forward to next season.
Anyway, that brings us to tonight’s Game 6 where the Bucks are favored by 5 and the total on the game is 222. The oddsmakers have shown a tendency to have knee-jerk reactions in relation to totals, as tonight’s is more of the same, as it’s the highest we’ve seen all series.
If you were to look at the Suns’ shooting numbers from Game 5 you would think there was no way they could lose. Imagine shooting 55.2% from the field, 68.4% from the line and 90.9% from the charity stripe and still managing to lose. That would be pretty tough to accomplish. It’s not like the Bucks were slouches from the field, hitting 57.5% from the field and 50% from 3-point range. We won’t talk about their dismal effort from the line, which was another Giannis stinkfest.
There wasn’t a whole lot of defense being played last game and with the series being knotted at 2-2, you can understand a little bit, as one team didn’t really have its backs against the wall and a loss wasn’t the end of the world. Things are a bit difference now, so I expect to see the defense pick-up a bit for both teams, as Milwaukee doesn’t want to go back to Phoenix and the Suns are trying to stay alive.
The Bucks are favored by 2.5 in the first half and the total is 109.
Last game, I expected the Suns to come out strong and they didn’t disappoint, only to forget to show up in the second quarter. I don’t expect that tonight, but also don’t expect to see both teams shoot like they did in Game 5. Have to think Phoenix will try to play a little more deliberate, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under 222.
7/17/21
We move to Game 5 of the NBA Finals and we’re all knotted up at 2-2, as both teams have been able to win and cover on their home floor each game. The Suns are favored by 4 tonight and the total has climbed from 218.5 to 219 this morning. The Suns are -2 in the first half and the total moved from 106.5 to 107.
So far, we’ve seen first halves of 104, 105, 106 and 101, so can see the rationale for having the first-half total less than half of the full game total.
The first quarter total is 54 and the opening game of the series saw 56 points, while there were 55 points scored in Game 2. Game 3 in Milwaukee saw 53 points and last time out it was a bit of a defensive battle early on, as the Suns led 23-20 at the end of the first quarter.
Going back to the 2003 season, we’d only see 22 previous situations like we have now, with the home team winning and covering the first four games as a favorite. In Game 5, the underdog has gone 7-15 straight-up, but 14-8 against the spread, receiving an average of 5.5 points and losing by an average of 7.3 points. A few of the losses were pretty lopsided, which is why the average margin of victory is greater than the average spread.
There’s also a slight trend in the Suns’ favor regarding home favorites who made 16 or more turnovers the previous game while on the road, so it’s a case of the more you look, the more you can find trends working in both directions.
Ultimately, it comes down to how you think this game is going to play out. Does it play out the way the first two games in Phoenix transpired or do we see a continuation of what happened in Milwaukee?
The Suns need to come out strong in this one and wouldn’t be surprised to see them jump out to an early lead, as the Bucks have been better at home so far in the playoffs. The Suns have to get Ayton involved in the game early, as can pose matchup problems for the Bucks.
Tough game to call, but going to go ahead and take the Suns -2 for the first half. The Bucks need to win a game on the road to take the title and Phoenix needs to try and keep Milwaukee from getting early confidence, so think they’ll play a bit harder from the opening tip.
7/14/21
We move to Game 4 of the NBA Finals tonight, where the Milwaukee Bucks are favored by 4.5 and the total is 220.5, while the Bucks are favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 108.
The home team has won and covered the first three games of the series and the Bucks will look to head back to Phoenix with the series knotted, but will probably have to play a little better than they did last game, as the Suns actually outshot the Bucks from the floor, but Milwaukee was better from 3-point range and the foul line. The Bucks did what they needed to do early on, taking a 60-45 lead at the half and were able to keep the Suns at bay in the second half.
Giannis will get a lot of the credit for the Game 3 win, but Jrue Holiday having a strong game was the difference between the first two games and Game 3 and that may again be the case tonight. Holiday was 5 for 10 on 3-pointers and led the Bucks with 9 assists. In Phoenix, he was 1 for 7 on 3-pointers and just 11 for 35 from the field and 8 for 14 in Game 3.
The Bucks have to do a better job on Deandre Ayton defensively, as he had another game last time out, although the struggles of Devin Booker countered that for the most part. The Bucks have had the edge in offensive rebounds all three games and it finally paid off for them last time.
The key here is for the Bucks to come out with the same intensity as they did last game. If they do so, they have an excellent shot at coming away with the win, as a motivated Milwaukee team is as good as anybody in the league.
The stats have been pretty even through the first three games, with the Suns having a 112-111 average scoring margin and the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings are 114.3 to 114 on offense, with the Suns getting the slight edge.
The teams are playing at a 97.67 pace, which would rank them No. 28 during the regular season and No. 5 in the playoffs.
This one was Bucks -4 when I started writing and has moved to Milwaukee -4.5 in the last 15 minutes, but can’t say I’m surprised with 60% of the wagers coming in on Milwaukee.
Going to go ahead and take a shot on the under 220.5. Things are getting a little more meaningful now and think teams start to put more focus on playing both ends of the court.
7/14/21
The NBA Finals move to Milwaukee tonight and for all practical purposes, tonight’s game is essentially the series, as the Bucks won’t come back from a 3-0 deficit, while a win by the home team makes it a completely different series. The Bucks are favored by 4 and the total is 222. Oddsmakers are expecting the Bucks to get off to a fast start, as the first-half line sees Milwaukee -3.5 with a total of 109.
Once again, my numbers are split on the side, with the Suns getting the nod with the overall numbers and the Bucks getting a slight edge in the home and away numbers, while all of the numbers like the unders.
At this point of the season, the numbers really don’t mean too terribly much, as it’s more about execution and catching a couple of breaks, as you wouldn’t think motivation would be an issue on the biggest stage of the season.
The Bucks were a team that lacked motivation during the regular season, but that shouldn’t be an issue here, as this is as close to a must-win game as the Bucks have had all season.
The second game played out a lot like the first, with the Bucks getting off to a slow start and then trying to claw their way back into the game, only to see Phoenix come up with a big basket or a key stop in the fourth quarter whenever Milwaukee would pull within striking distance. From that standpoint, you have to expect Milwaukee to come out and go hard right from the opening tip-off, although it’s difficult to tell if that’s going to mean extra effort on defense or if the Bucks look to try and outscore the Suns, which is probably something Phoenix would be expecting.
The Suns have played well on the road in the playoffs, going 6-2 straight-up and against the spread, while the Bucks are 7-1 straight-up at home and 5-3 against the spread. For the season, Phoenix is 11-6 as an underdog, splitting two games with the Lakers and defeating Denver in the postseason.
Still, have to believe the Bucks are going to come out and play the way they’re capable of in this one and not expecting the Suns to go 20 from 40 from 3-point range, so will go ahead and take Milwaukee -3.5 in the first half and lay the four points for the full game.
7/8/21
We move to Game 2 of the NBA Finals and we’ve seen some line movement this morning, as the Suns have dropped from -5 to -5 and the total has bounced back up to 220.5 after being 219.5 earlier in the morning. The Suns are 2.5 and the total is 108 in the first half. We’re 138-126 on the season and have had a chance to get back on the plus side a few times so far these playoffs, but haven’t been able to get the win, so hopefully we can change that tonight, although in all honesty – this is a tough one to try and get a read on.
The difference in the first game really was free throws, as the Suns converted theirs and the Bucks didn’t. Phoenix was 25 for 26 and the Bucks were 9 for 16. Milwaukee outscored the Suns by three from the field but that wasn’t nearly enough to make up the 16 additional points the Suns had from the foul line.
As expected, Brooks Lopez was a defensive liability for the Bucks in Game 1 and you have to expect Phoenix to go after him again. The key will be how well the Bucks adjust defensively, as Lopez was 7 for 14 from the field and 3 for 5 on 3-point attempts, but was still a game low -17 in +/-. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the only Bucks starter with a plus rating at +1.
The Bucks did pull within seven points in the fourth quarter, but the Suns had the answer any time Milwaukee made a bit of a run. Middleton had a solid game in the opener, but Holiday wasn’t that impressive and let his defensive lapses affect his offense, where he was just 4 for 14.
Once again, the numbers in this one like the under and it’s hard to argue that point, as the Bucks are 1-5 in totals after a playoff loss and allow 101.2 points per game. The Suns have gone 7-6 in totals in the playoffs after a victory. They’re split on the side, with the overall numbers again favoring the Bucks and the Suns getting the edge in the home and away number.
Am going to go ahead and take a shot on the under 220.5 in this one, as I think Milwaukee will made a few tweaks to prevent the Suns from getting so many good looks at the basket.
7/6/21
The NBA Finals finally tip-off tonight, although it may still be a day or two too early for the Milwaukee Bucks, who likely are going to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo at least for Game 1, and possibly longer. He’s officially listed as doubtful for this one, where the Suns have climbed from 5.5 to 6-point favorites and the total has moved up a little bit from 217.5 to 219 the past few days.
The Bucks showed they can win without their big guy in the final two games against Atlanta, although it’s tough to tell when Middleton will go off for another big effort. Jrue Holiday is another who is capable of putting up some big numbers, but much like Middleton, he’s also capable of disappearing for times.
The Bucks will need Lopez to step up and play tough on the inside, which isn’t really his game and he could have a few matchup problems in this one.
Phoenix had a few extra days than the Bucks to get ready for this one, which is always nice provided the layoff isn’t too terribly long, as teams can lose a bit of an edge when sitting for a week.
Not real sure what to do with the total in this one, as my numbers have this one finishing well under the total, although with Giannis the Bucks may look to play a bit quicker, as the last two games against the Hawks landed over the total. Phoenix also saw its last two games land over the total, a well.
My numbers have this one 103-100 for Phoenix with the overall numbers, although the Suns are predicted to win 108-100 with the home and away numbers.
The Suns are -3 for the first half, where the total is 108, so again we’re seeing a total a bit less than half of the full-game total. I have the Suns leading 51-48 with the overall numbers and have Phoenix leading 51-45 with the home and away numbers, so will go ahead and take a shot on the Suns -3 for the first half of this one. Phoenix has gone 6-2 at home in the playoffs so far and think they’ll have a bit more energy playing in front of the home fans in this one than Milwaukee will have. Middleton’s two big quarters in the playoffs both came in the second half, so not sure if Milwaukee has the urgency from opening tip-off you’d like to see.
7/3/21
We moved to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals and the right to face the Phoenix Suns for the NBA Championship. The Hawks are favored by 2 in this one and the total is 216. Atlanta was 2.5 with a total of 216.5 earlier this morning. Atlanta is -1 with a first-half total of 106.
Milwaukee’s supporting cast was able to get the job done in Game 5, but it figures to be a little bit tougher on the road, where the Hawks are allowing 103.1 points at home in the playoffs compared to 110 points on the road, while Atlanta’s offense is pretty much the same regardless of location.
The Bucks have scored 109.3 points per game in the playoffs, with Milwaukee scoring 106.2 on the road and 112.4 at home.
The total on this one is a little bit strange, as it was 218.5 last game and that one went over the total and now it’s 2.5 points less than it was last time. Throughout the playoffs we’ve seen totals climb a bit after an over and drop after an under, yet we’re seeing the opposite effect in this one.
The Bucks shot better than 50% from the field last game, so the Hawks are going to have to play better defense and they’re capable of it, limiting the Bucks to 39.3% in Game 4.
Trae Young is listed as questionable for the Hawks in this one, but you have to think he’s going to play with Atlanta a game away from elimination. Giannis is listed as doubtful for the Bucks and you have to think Milwaukee will sit him for this one, as even with a loss they have a chance to win the series at home and give him a couple more days to heal up. The worst thing for Milwaukee would be to rush Antetokounmpo back to early and see him damage the knee even more.
If this one gets out of hand in Atlanta’s favor, expect both teams to go to their benches for an extended period of time, while if the Bucks are out to a big lead, the Hawks will likely keep their starters in, so the flow of the game will have an impact on the total here.
Going to go ahead and take the under 216 in this one, as both teams should give decent efforts on both sides of the court.
7/3/21
Have been alternating wins and losses here the past few days, as we head to Game 5 in Milwaukee with a 136-125 record. The Bucks are now favored by 2 with a total of 215.5. The Hawks are expecting to get back Trae Young, who along with Clint Capella, are listed as questionable, while the Bucks listed Giannis Antetokounmpo as doubtful on Wednesday.
As a result, the line has dropped all the way to Bucks -2 and the total is at 215.5, while the Bucks are -1 with a total of 109.5 in the first half.
The Bucks had a great opportunity to win Game 4 with Young out of the lineup, but the rest of the Hawks stepped up their games and the guys the Bucks needed to come through were unable to do so after Giannis was out, with Middleton and Holiday a combined 12 for 34 from the field. While they combined for 35 points, they were also a combined -43 in plus/minus, with Middleton’s -25 the worst on the team.
The Hawks saw guys like Bogdanovic and Lou Williams rise to the occasion and were able to even up the series.
The one knock against the Bucks all season has been their lack of effort at times and it’s continued into the playoffs on occasion, but this is pretty much a must-win game for Milwaukee, who don’t want to go back to Atlanta down 3-2, so have to believe the Bucks come out with plenty of intensity, so going to go ahead and play the Bucks -1 for the first half.
Milwaukee is 6-1 at home in the playoffs, with an average first-half scoring margin of 60.6-48.3, while the Hawks are 6-3 on the road with a first-half scoring average of 53-55.1, so think Milwaukee is worth a shot, at least for the first half. The full game is a little more difficult to predict.
Milwaukee has several players capable of going off, as we saw with Middleton in Game 3, but they can’t afford another game like last one out of their core players and need big games from two of the three of Lopez, Holiday or Middleton if they want to defend home court and go back to Atlanta with a chance to wrap-up the series. The Bucks were 6-5 this season without the big guy, so they can win without him, although it’s not nearly as easy as winning with him.
6/30/21
The Phoenix Suns will look to put an end to the Western Conference Finals tonight, as they travel to face the Clippers, who look to keep the momentum going after winning in Phoenix last game. The game is even and the total is 215. The first-half line is also even and the total there is 105.5.
As we saw last night, teams can pick up a fallen teammate when it’s needed, as the Hawks defeated the Bucks with two of their best players out of the line-up. I was a little worried about the Hawks +3.5 bet for the first half, as the line moved to 5.5 after it was announced Young wouldn’t play, so was hoping Atlanta would play inspired enough in the first half to get the cover, but expected the Bucks to do some damage in the second half. Milwaukee was dealt a bit of a blow with the injury to Giannis, but the rest of the team stunk it up.
It does get harder for teams to keep it up when a star player is out, so it’s not going to be easy for the Clippers tonight, but really in no rush to bet against them in this spot either. It’s hard to know how Phoenix will react to losing last game when they had everything going for them and now have given LA a bit of a second chance.
The Clippers have played decent defense with Leonard out and while offense can come and go, defense is a bit more reliable. Good defensive teams can play defense regardless if shots are falling or not and that’s what the Clippers are going to need tonight.
The total on the game is a 1.5 higher than we saw last time when it was 213.5. The pace of the games really hasn’t changed too much, as both teams have had between 80 and 90 field goals in all five games so far. Free throws have been a little bit different, although with the exception of the Clippers’ 32 attempts in Game 4, the teams have had 24 or fewer attempts and foul shots can have a pretty big influence on the outcome of the total.
Going to go ahead and take the under 215 here, as the Clippers have played solid defense both games in Los Angeles so far and think they know that gives them their best chance to win.
6/29/21
It’s more of the same as we head to Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta will look to the Clippers for a bit of inspiration, as they were able to pull off the upset of the Suns last night, getting a huge effort from Paul George and a solid shooting night all-around in a game I fell to 135-124 on the season with a loser on the under.
Milwaukee is a 7-point favorite with a total of 219, while the Bucks are 3.5 in the first half with a total of 108. Once again, my number are split on the side and they all favor the under.
Obviously, the status of Young is the big story in this one and if he goes how effective will he be. The Hawks didn’t have anybody step up in the fourth quarter last game, when Young was struggling and it cost them in the end. Both teams were pretty dismal from the foul line, so fortunately there weren’t that many attempts, with the Bucks attempting 21 and Atlanta with just 16, but that’s been the story all series, with 30 and 33 free throw attempts in the first two games and the 37 last time.
There were fewer field goal attempts in Game 3 than either of the first two games, with the additional foul shots counting for a little, although not too terribly much.
While Khris Middleton was a huge part of the Bucks’ win last game, the Hawks can look at Bogdanovic and his 3 for 16 shooting night as one of the reasons for the loss, along with a couple of other pretty dismal efforts out there. John Collins being in foul trouble didn’t help, as he was 6 for 8 from the field but only played 23:11 after playing 36:57 in the Atlanta win. Everybody’s starters saw reduced minutes in the Bucks’ blowout win in Game 2.
The under looks like the right play here, but a bit hesitant to pull the trigger, as there could have easily been a few more points scored last game, especially if Bogdanovic stinking it up and Jrue Holliday an ugly 2 for 11.
I do think the Hawks are going to come out and give everything they have, so will take a shot on Atlanta +3.5 for the first half and hope they manage to keep things close.
6/28/21
The Clippers and the Suns return to Phoenix, where the Suns have a chance to put away the Clippers tonight and it’s an opportunity they don’t want to squander. When you have the opportunity to end a series against a team like the Clippers, you can’t waste it, although there’s some big money coming in on the Clippers, as the line has moved from Suns -6 down to 5.5, although Phoenix is getting two-thirds of the wagers in the game. You can see why people might like the Clippers a bit, as all three Phoenix wins have been close games, with the Suns winning by 6, 1, and 4 points. Not quite blowouts and the Clippers were their own worst enemy at times, either stinking it up from the foul line or blowing defensive assignments, which only gets magnified at this stage of the season.
The total is at 214, which is 3.5 points lower than the total we saw last game, but it is justified considering the teams just played an 84-80 game last time on the floor. History, at least, suggests we’ll see another low-scoring game, as NBA playoff teams who scored 85 points or less and won, have seen the next game go 32-43 in totals, which is 42.7% overs. The winning team has also covered the spread at a 45-30 ATS clip (60%), going 30-15 as a favorite and 15-15 as an underdog, so the trends point to the Suns. The majority of these games occurred many years ago, however, so tough to put much stock in something that happened 15 years ago, as the game has changed quite a bit since the Pistons beat the Pacers 69-65 in the 2003-04 playoffs.
Not the greatest of games from a betting standpoint, but am going to go ahead and play the under here, as I have projections of 105-101 and 108-101, so a split on the side but both numbers like the under. The Suns do score a little bit more at home, while playing tough defense regardless of the location.
The Suns are -3 in the first half with a total of 106 and my numbers have that one 55-47 for the Suns, with the overall numbers, and 53-48 with the home and away numbers, so they like Phoenix a little bit, as well as the under.
6/27/21
The Bucks travel to Atlanta where they need at least a split to regain home court advantage and Milwaukee is favored by 4.5 and the total is 224. The Bucks dominated the entire game last time, but it’s hard to feel this line isn’t a little inflated due to that. The Bucks are favored by 2 and the first-half total is 110.5.
The numbers don’t really matter too much at this point, as it’s more about effort, intensity and adjustments. As they have through the first two games, they’re split on the side and on the under, but not so sure that’s the best way to go here. A lot of it has to do with Milwaukee and how much defensive intensity they bring today and that’s been a problem of theirs at times during the season. After a 30-point or greater win, the Bucks are 2-5 ATS, although they did cover against the Heat in the postseason. Interestingly, the Bucks are 6-0 ATS after holding a foe to 92 points or less and three of those wins were in the postseason.
The Hawks have gone 3-1 in the playoffs after losing this season and they are 6-5 as an underdog. Atlanta dropped a pair of home games to the Sixers, while winning the other three contests played in front of the home fans.
This game is about as close to a toss-up as there is, without knowing how the Bucks are going to come out. If they come like they did in Game 2, they’re going to be impossible to beat, but not so sure Milwaukee is going to bring the same defensive effort in an even series as they did when their back was against a wall. The Hawks simply can’t play any worse than they did in the first half of Game 2.
Atlanta is 2-6-1 in totals when they’ve won in the playoffs, which shows they’re not necessarily the high-scoring team they’re being given credit for. They’ve scored 109.7 points in their victories, while allowing 102.6. In their losses, the Hawks are 1-4 in totals.
The Bucks are 3-6 in totals when they win, holding the opposition to 95.8 points, and one of those overs needed overtime against Brooklyn.
Not really too fond of this one, but am going to take a shot on the under 224 in this one and hope Milwaukee brings the defense once again.
6/26/21
We dropped the play on the first-half total in the Milwaukee game – and won the WNBA play – after my lengthy diatribe on how much better the NBA plays had been over the past two weeks than the WNBA plays for a change, which is how it goes at times. The logic behind the first-half under play was correct, with the Bucks slowing things down a bit and playing good defense – but they couldn’t miss offensively and threw up 77 points, which pretty much ended any hopes of winning that one. On to Saturday and Game 4 between the Suns and the Clippers, where the Suns are favored by 1 and the total just dipped from 218.5 to 218.
This is one is interesting to see how the Clippers react after winning the last game to pull within 2-1 in the series. Will the momentum carry over to this game or will the Clippers be satisfied with not being swept? You shouldn’t have to ask that being the conference finals, but Los Angeles didn’t really look all that motivated at times in the first two games of the series. A little more effort, or some better luck, and this series could look entirely different.
The Suns are -.5 and the first-half total is just 107.5, which we saw earlier, and can see the rationale behind having it less than half of the full-game total. I have the Sun leading at the half 53-51 and 56-52, so a split on the total there, while my full-game projections are 106-106 and 110-106, so both numbers like the under and I guess a slight lean to the Clippers with the home and away numbers.
This is a key game, as the difference between being down 3-1 or being tied 2-2 is huge, so have to think both teams could be a little more deliberate than we’ve seen, in other words, play what we think of as old-fashioned playoff basketball.
While both teams have some players who can put the ball in the basket, each team also has players who are capable of playing tough-nosed defense, so going to go ahead and take the under here. With one of the two first-half projections calling on the over, will go ahead and play the under 218 and take the full-game wager in this one.
6/25/21
Have had a bit of a decent run in the NBA lately, moving to 133-122 last night, which coincidently began at the same time as I began to cool off in the WNBA, going from 14-5-1 to 19-12-1, so 5-7 on my last 12 WNBA picks. But 10-1 on the last 11 NBA plays, as we were sitting at 123-121 just 10 days ago, so no complaint there, but do need to get the WNBA plays back, as that’s been my best sport over the past few seasons.
Anyway, we move to Game 2 of the Atlanta vs. Milwaukee series and once again the Bucks are favored by 8 points and the total just dropped to 225.5 after being at 226 earlier this morning. The Bucks are favored by 5 and the total in the first half is again at 114.
My numbers really have changed that much since Game 1, with the sides being split and all of the numbers like the under. The overall numbers have the Hawks covering both the first half and full game spreads, while the home and away numbers have the Bucks squeaking out a pair of covers.
All of the numbers are again calling for the under, both in the first half and in the total.
During the regular season, the Bucks were 11-14 in totals after a loss and they’ve gone 0-4 in the playoffs, so Milwaukee plays a little better defensively after a setback, although in the playoffs they’re also scoring less.
Milwaukee’s defense was a disappointment last game, allowing the Hawks to shoot 49.5% from the field, which is 3% better than the Hawks shoot and 4.5% better than the Bucks allow. Being a 3-point game, the Bucks would have won if they were able to hold Atlanta to their season average.
Neither team shot many foul shots and both teams struggled from 3-point range, so a little surprising the game saw 229 points, but there were more possessions than the teams saw against each other during the regular season.
The Bucks need to slow things down a little bit and utilize their advantage on half-court offense. The Bucks are 3-6 straight-up and 1-8 against the spread this season when they attempt more than 100 field goals.
Tough game to call, but will come right back with the first half under 114, as my numbers are calling for 102 points.
6/24/21
We managed to sneak under the first-half total by a point last night and now move to Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals and to say that this is a must-win game for the Clippers is an understatement. Yet it’s the Suns who enter this one as a 1-point favorite, while the total is at 221. The Clippers are favored by 1 in the first half, however, and the total is at 107, so obviously people think if the Clippers get out to a decent start it’s going to be due to their defense and not their offense.
Chris Paul is listed as probable by the Suns for this one, so obviously they’re hoping he can come back, although even if he does play, he’ll likely show a little bit of rust from his extended layoff. Practicing by yourself is one thing, but it’s something else entirely to be on the floor with your teammates and five opponents.
The Clippers let a chance to win one get away from them in Phoenix, as they could have won either game with a clutch basket here or a stop there. They’ve allowed the Suns to shoot 50% or better in each of the first two games and that’s not the way to win games. Paul George led the Clippers in scoring last game, but was just 10 of 23 and also shot 10 free throws, where he missed five, which isn’t what you need from a guy who shoots 86.8% on the season. If he makes a few more of those foul shots, this one could very well be 1-1 heading into this game.
Leonard is out for the Clippers, so they need George and Marcus Morris to improve their play, as well as do a better job against Ayton, as you can’t continue to let him shoot 71.4% and 80% and think you’re going to win.
The Clippers have been in this position before, dropping the first two games against the Mavericks and the Jazz and then coming back to win the series, so while they’re down – and they should be considering how they played in Phoenix – they’re not out and know they can make a series of this one.
Have to take the Clippers +1 in this spot and hope they’ve made a few defensive adjustments to slow down the Suns’ inside game.
6/23/21
We move to the Eastern Conference Finals between the Atlanta Hawks and the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, where the Bucks have moved from 7 to 8-point favorites and the total has remained right around 226 since opening. The move on the Bucks is pretty big, considering the Hawks have gotten roughly 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has seen more under wagers come in than over wagers, although there’s been more money bet on the over, which is a fairly rare occurrence.
The Bucks are favored by 4.5 with a first-half total of 114.
Surprisingly, both of these teams are below the playoff average in terms of points scored and allowed, even though both are thought of as offensive teams. The Bucks can play defense when they want and the Hawks showed a little bit of ‘D’ against the 76ers.
Since both teams are scoring less than the league playoff average, my numbers are well below the total for both the first half and the full game, although Game 1s aren’t always the most intense, as we saw in the opener between the Suns and the Clippers.
Two of the three games between these two during the regular season saw more than 226 points, although I’m not sure how much weight you can put into that. The exception was the game on April 25, when both teams were playing for playoff positioning and that was a 111-104 Atlanta win in Atlanta, as both teams shot less than 50%. The Hawks erased a 51-43 halftime deficit and went on to take the victory.
For Milwaukee, the answer is relatively simply and that’s to try and keep Young in check and you have to like their chances if they can do so, but as he showed in Game 7 against the Sixers, he’ll keep shooting even if the shots aren’t falling, while the Bucks will look to their big guy to lead the team.
Tough game to really try and get a good read on, but am going to go ahead and follow the numbers and take a stab on the first half to go under the total of 114. If the teams decide to play up-and-down in the first half and get serious in the second half, this one will go over the first-half total, but think the Bucks will look to play a little more defense early and let the Hawks know they’re not New York or Philadelphia.
6/22/21
We move to Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, where the Phoenix Suns have moved from 6-point favorites to 5-point favorites. The total is holding pretty steady at 224 even though the majority of the wagers are coming in on the over, while the majority of the money has come in on the under.
The Suns had a solid shooting advantage in the first game, and while you can talk about Crowder or Booker, the big difference was the play of Deandre Ayton, who was 10 of 14 from the field and did a number on the Clippers up front. The Clippers took a page from their games against the Jazz, shooting 47 3-pointers and making 20 and Los Angeles also had a strong advantage at the four line, where the Suns attempted just nine free throws, but LA came up short at the end, with Marcus Morris stinking up the place on the reasons why.
Have to expect the Clippers to do a better job defensively in this one, as even without Leonard, they’re too good to be allowing 55% from the floor regardless of who the opponent is. The Clippers need more from their bench than they received in Game 1, as Cameron Johnson, Cameron Payne and Torrey Crag all had +/- ratings of higher than +10 for the Suns and if you can rest your starters during a game and they come back in with a larger lead than they went to the bench with, you’re going to be pretty tough to beat.
Field goal attempts were almost identical in Game 1, with the Clippers attempting 88 to 89 for the Suns, while Los Angeles also had an advantage of 8 free throws attempted. The Suns had a slight edge in rebounding and the Clippers made two more turnovers, although both teams had fewer than 10.
The Clippers showed they can win on the road in the series against the Mavericks and they went 1-2 against the Jazz on the road, so think the Clippers make a game of this one. They might not be able to pull off the upset, but believe they have a pretty decent chance to cover the spread in this one, so will take the Clippers +5 in this one.
6/20/21
A push with our first-quarter total yesterday and now a pair of games, with the opener of the Suns and Clippers and another Game 7, this time between the Hawks and 76ers. Still at 128-122 for the season, omitting the now three pushes that have occurred along the way.
LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns: The Suns are favored by 4 with a total of 220 and I have Phoenix winning 109-103 and 105-97, although that doesn’t take into account the two big absences, with Leonard and Chris Paul both out. The low total is also influenced by the Suns’ playoff games against the Lakers, as Phoenix did see quite a few more point against the Nuggets. The Clippers played some high-scoring games with the Jazz, although the teams played lower-scoring games during the regular season, with two of the three landing under the number. The Suns have a bit of an edge in terms of rest, but it’s now been a week since Phoenix played. Teams with five days of rest or more in the playoffs have essentially been a break-even proposition over the years, with a slight tendency to go under the total, so not a whole lot there. This one really comes down to which injury is going to have the bigger impact on the game, Leonard’s or Paul’s, even though Paul’s isn’t really an injury in pure terms. The first-half line is Suns -4 with a total of 112 and I have Phoenix leading by 8 and by 6, so will take a shot on the Suns in the first half and lay the 2.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 6.5 now and the total on the game has held at 216. Philadelphia was 7 earlier this morning, while the first-half line of Sixers -4 and 110 has remained unchanged this morning. This one could be a great game, as the Hawks have shown they belong and have been able to do enough to stretch it out to a seventh game, where basically anything can happen. The series could be a bit different if Atlanta hadn’t lost De’Andre Hunter, but there’s nothing you can really do about that now. The Hawks let themselves down at the foul line in Game 6, as there’s no excuse why a team that shoots 81.2% for the year goes 13 for 24 (54.2%). If the Hawks just shoot their average, we could be gearing up for an Atlanta vs. Milwaukee Eastern Conference Finals. Going to take the Hawks +4 in the first half of this one.
6/19/21
Split the two NBA games last night and now have the deciding Game 7 between the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets on tap. The Nets are favored by 1.5 with a total of 216, which is a far cry from the total of 239.5 we saw in Game 1. The Nets are favored by .5 points in the first quarter, with a total of 53, while the first-half line is Brooklyn -.5 with a total of 106.5.
It’s only fitting these two teams would go to a Game 7, as many people believe they’re the best two teams in the East, even though Philadelphia finished a game in front of the Nets and three in front of Milwaukee.
The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving, while the Bucks have been without Donte DiVincenzo since last month. James Harden and Westbrook should be good to go for the Nets.
This one did open even but the Nets have been getting bet pretty good, which has caused the line movement, as Brooklyn is getting close to 75% of the wagers in the game so far. The total was at 215 a good part of the morning before climbing a point to 216, with roughly 55% of the wagers coming in on the over.
Both teams have come through when it counted, with the Nets winning Game 5 and then the Bucks forcing this one with a win in Milwaukee last time they played. The Nets are 6-0 straight-up and against the spread at home in the playoffs, which is hard to ignore.
Tats take a little less importance in this one, as well, as both teams have shown they are capable of winning and it’s simply going to come down to who handles the pressure better. The loser of the game is going to have a long offseason, as getting bounced in the conference semifinals isn’t what either team planned on.
Using only playoff numbers, I’d have the under on the game, half and first quarter, while I have Milwaukee covering the quarter and half with the overall numbers and the Nets covering the full game with the overall numbers and Brooklyn covering all three with the home and away numbers.
This is a tough one to call and probably a game that’s better for watching than it is for wagering, but will take a shot on the first quarter under 53. I have this one 26-22 and 24-43, which is the biggest difference in any of the numbers.
6/18/21
A pair of Game 6s tonight, where both road teams find themselves favored as they try to fight off elimination. We’re 127-121 on the season after catching the Bucks in the first half last night, although both of these games are pretty tough from a handicapping perspective, which has been the case for a while now.
Philadelphia at Atlanta: The 76ers are favored by 3 with a total of 221.5, while the first-half line sees the Sixers -2 and the total just moved from 112.5 to 113.5. The Sixers have had a pair of large leads at the half in the last two games, only to see Atlanta storm back and take the win, as Philadelphia has musted 46 and 38 second-half points the last two games after scoring 62 points in the first half in each of the last two games and 61 in the first half the game before that. Whatever the Hawks are doing at halftime is working, while whatever the Sixers are doing, isn’t. It’s as simple as that, as you have no business losing at home with a 22-point halftime lead. Turnovers have hurt the Sixers a bit the last two games and the team that has made the most turnovers has dropped all five games so far. The 76ers also have some poor foul shooting to blame for the last game, going 23 for 38 (60.5) and they’re a 75% shooting team for the season. Have taken the 76ers in the first half the last two games and won’t change now, so will take the 76ers -2 in the first half of this one.
Utah at Clippers: The Jazz are -1.5 with a total of 219.5 in this one and the first-half line sees Utah -.5 and a total of 108. Mitchell and Conley are officially listed as questionable for the Jazz in this one, while Leonard is definitely out for the Clippers. The last four games have all season at least 112 points, so a little surprised the first-half total came down to 108. If I’m Utah I’m going to continue to do what got me here in the first place. The Jazz could double Chris Paul, which would leave somebody open and if Terrence Mann has another decent game, we could see more points in the first half than are being called for, so will take a shot on the first-half over 108 in this one.
6/17/21
Just the one game in the NBA tonight, as the Nets look to put an end to their series with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have moved to -6 at William Hill in a game that is definitely interesting from a handicapping perspective. The total has come down back down to 220 after hitting 220.5 earlier this morning before moving downward to its earlier number.
James Harden returned last game and wasn’t that effective offensively, but did have eight assists and grab six rebounds to help overcome his 1 for 10 shooting night. The big news was Kevin Durant, but don’t discount what Jeff Green did, scoring 27 points on just 11 field goal and four free throw attempts, as he was 7 for 8 on 3-pointers and that had a lot to do with Brooklyn getting the win.
Both teams shot 49.4% from the field last game and the Bucks were a little better from 3-point range, but Brooklyn outscored Milwaukee by 9 from the foul line and that was the difference in the game.
Green and Durant are unlikely to repeat their performances, but so is Harden, so a bit of a drop-off probably isn’t too unlikely for Brooklyn.
The Bucks had their chances in the fourth quarter last time, but Antetokounmpo’s piss-poor foul shooting finally came back to haunt the team and there’s no excuse for him going 15 for 36 this series. The Bucks did get a decent effort from Brook Lopez, with 15 points on 10 field goal attempts, but other than that, nobody really stood out.
The line move from 5.5 to 6 surprised me a little bit. Had I known it was going to move a half-point from 5.5 I would have guessed it would dropped to 5 instead of climbing.
The public is backing Brooklyn pretty good in this one, with close to two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the Nets, which isn’t all that surprising, but not so sure I agree with it.
It’s time for the Bucks to show what they’re made of, especially Giannis, who needs to show he is a guy you can win in the postseason with and not just the regular season.
The Bucks are -3.5 and 111.5 in the first half and think the Bucks will come out with everything they have, so going to take a stab on the Bucks -3.5 in the first half.
6/16/21
There are two games on today’s NBA slate, with the Utah game having back on the board after the injury to Leonard was announced. The spread went up 4.5 points for Leonard, which I’m not sure is entirely justified.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: The Sixers are favored by 6.5, while the total has climbed to 223.5. You have to give the Hawks credit for coming back last game when they were thoroughly outplayed in the first half but were able to turn things around in the second half and get the win. It won’t be quite so easy on the road, where the 76ers have been exceptionally tough. The first-half line sees the 76ers favored by 3.5 with a total of 114 and going to take a shot on Philadelphia -3.5 for the first half. The Sixers didn’t play well at home in the first half of either game, being down 20 and only leading by 2, but led by 5 and 13 on the road. The Sixers need to get off to a better start in this one and are capable if they come to play, which you think they will after losing last time out.
LA Clippers at Utah: The Jazz are now favored by 7 after being 2.5 earlier this morning and the total is 221.5. It’s hard to predict how much of an impact Leonard’s loss is going to have, as what he brings on offense he also negates a little bit by being one of the better defenders in the league. Beverly could see more time on the court and the Clippers could go smaller to try and prevent the Jazz from shooting so many 3-pointers. Beverly brings the defense, but sometimes leaves the offense in the locker room. Gobert has to do more than he did last game and he’s been fairly quiet all series long. If he would get going, the Jazz would have some better looks and be tough. I liked Utah earlier when the line was 2.5, but you’re now asking Utah to win by 8 or more to get the money and that’s not always easy when you get to a Game 5, where things figure to be a bit more deliberate. Even without Leonard, the Clippers have some guys who can play, so going to go ahead and go against the move and take a shot on LA +7.
6/15/21
Dropped both games last night, taking the Hawks in the first half, as opposed to the full game, and a painful final minute in the Utah game, as we couldn’t get one more basket that was needed to get over the total, which is about how things have gone over the past week or so.
Just one game today and it’s another one that’s not the easiest from a handicapping perspective, as the Milwaukee Bucks are favored by 4 with a total of 218.5 against the short-handed Brooklyn Nets. The public is backing the Bucks, who are getting a little over 60% of the wagers in the game and the public is also taking the under in this one.
This is only the third game all season the Nets have played with a total of less than 220 and the other two came against the New York Knicks. Brooklyn was 2-3 as a home dog this year and those games occurred when the team was dealing with some injury issues. With Harden and Irving gone, this one is likely going to be decided by a couple of the team’s usual reserve players, with guys like Blake Griffin, Bruce Brown and Joe Harris having a say in the final outcome.
The Bucks have been without Donte DiVincenzo for a while and while not really a key player, his loss has hurt Milwaukee a little bit, so if there’s an area the Rockets were going to be hurt, the guard position is probably the one that doesn’t hurt quite as much.
Even though the Bucks have won the last two games, not entirely sure they should be favored by 4 on the road. Even though the Nets are without two of the ‘Big 3’ they still have some people who can play.
The Bucks haven’t been all that impressive against Brooklyn, even when they’ve won, and the team looks out of sync a little bit. Going to go ahead and take a shot on the Nets +4 in this one and hope to see the game come down to the wire, as we really haven’t had a close contest yet between these two.
It’s far from being a big play and another one of those games where you try to find the side or total you think has the best chance of covering the number.
6/15/21
Another two games on the NBA slate for Monday, with a pair of Game 4s, which pretty much determine which way each series is going to go, as both road teams lead 2-1 entering tonight. At 123-119 for the season.
Utah at LA Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 5 and the total here is 223.5, while the first-half line sees LA -2.5 and a total of 110. Utah’s gameplan appears to be to launch as many 3-pointers as they can and hope they fall. The Jazz are averaging 44 3-point attempts in this series, which is just slightly higher than they did during the regular season. The Jazz will be without Mike Conley once again for this one and Utah will need him at some point in this series, especially if they move back to Utah with the series all tied up at 2. The Clippers’ big guys did what you pay them to do last time, with Leonard and George both scoring more than 30 points and LA had decent games from Jackson and Batum. Utah had five players in double figures, but Bogdanovic wasn’t one of them, as he struggled from the field, going 2 for 10. Using just playoff numbers, I have the Clippers winning 118-114 and 124-117 with the home and away numbers, so will just follow them and take the over 223.5 and hope to see Utah score some from the outside.
Philadelphia at Atlanta: The 76ers are favored by 3 and the total here is 225.5, with the Sixers -1.5 in the first half and a total of 115. I have the Sixers winning 117-108 and 118-110, while I have the Hawks leading 63-56 at the half and also have the 76ers leading 59-57, so the numbers do like the Sixers a little bit, as the Hawks are hurt a bit by the injury to De’Andre Hunter, so it’s going to be up to Young to have a big game if the Hawks are going to even up the series. Tobias Harris has done a decent job defending him these past two games, as he’s had 28 points in each after scoring 35 in the opener. The Sixers have shot better than 50% in all three games so far, while the Hawks have been decent. Have to think the Hawks come out strong, so will take a shot on Atlanta +1.5 in the first half.
6/13/21
Back down to .500 in the playoffs after the loss on the Clippers under the total, which comes along with playing every game in the playoffs. Definitely not the best strategy, but the most fun or the most frustrating depending on how the games go for you.
Brooklyn at Milwaukee: The Bucks threw in a second straight clunker, but the Nets were even worse last time, as Milwaukee pulled out the 86-83 victory last game, but it’s the Nets who are favored by 2 on the road with a total of 228. The Nets are -1 with a first-half total of 116. Switching to using just stats from the playoffs, would have the Nets winning 105-103 with the overall numbers, in part due to Brooklyn completely waxing the Bucks in Game 2, while the home and away numbers would have the Bucks winning 111-97. The first-half numbers have Brooklyn leading 54-53 and also have the Bucks 59-49 with the home vs. away numbers. Going to take Milwaukee +2 in this one. The Bucks haven’t played a decent game yet against Brooklyn, although a lot of that has to do with the Nets, and still think the Bucks are just as good, but it’s time for them to show what they’re capable of.
Phoenix at Denver: The Suns are favored by 3 in this one after being 3.5 earlier this morning, while the total has stayed at 222. This is another game where I just used playoff scoring, and the projections were 115-103 and 115-111 in favor of the Suns. The series against the Lakers did put a bit of a hit to Phoenix’s scoring averages. The Suns are -1 and the first-half total is 109. The full-game total is 2.5 points less than we saw in Game 3 and 3 fewer points than were seen in Game 2, which is a slight surprise. While both games were under the total it wasn’t by much, as there wasn’t a defensive battle between the two teams. Will take a shot on the over 222, as I think there’s a bit of line value based on the decreasing totals we’ve seen the past few games. Denver hasn’t gotten untracked offensively all series, so might make more of an offensive effort here to try and shake things up a bit, figuring they have nothing to lose being down 3-0.
6/12/21
Coming off a split last night and now we’re faced with just one game for Saturday, as the Utah Jazz travel to Los Angeles to face the Clippers. The Clippers are favored by 4.5 and the total on the game is 223.5. The first-half line sees the Clippers favored by 4 with a total of 110.
Utah’s gameplan this series so far has been to launch a lot of 3-pointers and hope they fall in, which was the case in Game 2, when Utah made 20 of 39 after making 17 of 50 in the opener. Game 2 was the only game in which one team made more than 40% from 3-point range against each other and the Jazz also shot 55.3% from the field, the only time a team was better than 50% from the field in the last five meetings between the two.
There were 15 fewer shot attempts in the second game, but more points due to the Jazz being strong from the field. There were 10 more turnovers in the game, so you really can’t say the pace slowed down greatly, but both teams did have fewer offensive rebounds, which was partly due to both teams shooting a higher percentage from the floor.
The line opened up Clippers -4 and has climbed despite the Jazz getting the majority of the wagers, as the money coming in on each team shows the Clippers getting roughly 55%. It’s much the same story on the total, as more wagers are coming in on the over, although it terms of money it’s pretty well split between the two.
For the full-game projection, I have this one 110-110 when using the overall numbers and have the Jazz winning 113-105 with the home and away numbers, where the Clippers get dinged for dropping three home games against Dallas.
For this one, going to try the under once again, as the Jazz had to hit better than 50% from 3-point range and 55% from the field to reach 228 points last time. I don’t think it will happen again, as the Clippers should be able to do a better job defensively at home.
Always worried about free throws in the playoffs and how the game will be called, as both teams have attempted at least 20 free throws in each game, which is a bit of a surprise due to the number of 3-pointers attempted.
6/11/21
Have hit a slide in the NBA, going 1-5 the last six, as playing every game is starting to catch up to me. In the early going, was winning the ‘coin flip’ games, but have dropped them recently on this streak, which is how things tend to go.
Philadelphia at Atlanta: The 76ers are favored by 1 for the full-game with a total of 224.5, while the Hawks are -.5 in the first half and the total on the game is 114.5. I have the Hawks leading at halftime and winning with both numbers, while both numbers are also on the under. The Sixers are getting about 63% of the wagers in the game and the line hasn’t budged, while there have been a few more wagers on the over than the under. The Hawks did a decent job of getting themselves back in the game last time out, much as Philadelphia did in the opening game of the series. Going to take a shot on the Hawks -.5 in the first half, as I have them leading by 9.
Phoenix at Denver: The Nuggets are favored by 1.5 and the total on the game is 223, while the first-half number is also 1.5 and the total there is 109.5. I have the Suns winning and leading at the break, with the numbers split on the first-half total and both numbers liking the full-game total to go over the number. In Denver’s four playoffs wins, all four games went over the total, while totals are 2-4 when the Suns win. This is another one of those games where I’m pretty much torn on, but going to go ahead and take a shot on the Suns +1.5 in the first half. Phoenix is the better team and not so sure they have any sort of letdown here, which could be expected when a team is up 2-0 in the playoffs. I have it 56-51 with the overall numbers for the Suns and the home and away numbers have it 60-57 in part due to Denver’s high-scoring games against the Blazers in the playoffs, so that number could be artificially inflated a little bit. Tough game to get a read on, but wouldn’t be shocked to see Phoenix end this series in four or five games.
6/10/21
Threw in a clunker last night, as I’ve hit a bit of a cold spell after a decent start to the playoffs to fall to 120-115 on the season. It’s been a tough go of things these playoffs for followers of the Zig-Zag system, as teams who lost their last game are just 17-23 ATS these playoffs. Teams who are favored have gone 13-6 against the spread, however, and underdogs are a dismal 4-17 ATS. Totals are 29-24-2, while favorites have been killing it, going 36-18-1 against the number, so it’s been a bad playoffs for the sportsbooks, as the public tends to bet the over and the favorite.
Brooklyn at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 3.5 with a total of 234 for the full-game, while the first-half line sees Milwaukee -3 and a total of 119. The Bucks do fall into the 13-6 ATS trend of favorites who lost their last game, although favorites who lost last game by 10 or more points are just 3-4 against the number. My overall numbers have the Nets covering in this one, while the home and away numbers are partial to Milwaukee, as I have the Bucks leading 69-59 on their way to a 129-120 victory, while the overall numbers have the Nets leading 61-60 and winning by a score of 121-117. Going to take a shot on the over 234 in this one, as games where the favorite lost last time have gone 13-6 and both numbers like the over.
LA Clippers at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 3 and the total on the game just climbed to 222. I had the under in the first game, but posted the article when the number was 220.5, so was saddled with a half-point loss in that one, but will come back and take another shot on the under in this one. The first game saw 50 combined free throws, which is more than we saw in the regular season between these two and is a bit surprising when you consider the teams combined for 92 3-pointers, which is also more than they attempted during the regular season. Neither team shot that great from the field in the opener, but were able to make up for it in terms of the number of 3-pointers they shot. Think the Clippers will come out and concentrate on defense, which is what they can do best when they need to.
6/9/21
We settled for a 1-1 night here yesterday, although people who followed on the Utah under could have won or pushed, depending on when they bet. Hopefully you did, since I’ve always said the numbers you to bet are far more important than the ones I do. Just one game today, as the Denver Nuggets visit Phoenix for Game 2 of their series, where the Suns used a big second half to pull away from Denver last time. Going to take Denver in this one, even though we’ve already lost a little bit of value in the line move down from 6 to 5.5.
One of the big differences last time between these two was in free throws attempted, as the Nuggets went to the foul line just six times, while the Suns went to the charity stripe 20 times. The last two regular season games between these two saw Denver with free throw advantages of 4 and 14, so when the Suns have a 20-6 free throw edge it gets noticed. But those types of things tend to get noticed by officials and the league, as in playoff games where one team shoots 10 or fewer free throws and the opposition shoots 20 or more, the team that didn’t get to the foul line has come back to go 17-5 ATS. The Nuggets are just the fourth team to shoot six or fewer free throws in a playoff game since 2003. Teams who shot fewer than 10 free throws are 12-5 ATS next game regardless of how many foul shots the opposition attempted.
Strangely, these games have also had a tendency to go under the total, as they’ve been 6-10-1 and 6-15-1 in those games where one team shoots fewer than 10 foul shots and the opposition shoots at least 20. Neither team gets to the foul line all that much, as Denver was No. 27 and the Suns were No. 29.
The Nuggets have to do a better job defensively, as you’re not going to win many games in which you allow the opposition to hit 54% from the field. The Suns were No. 2 in the league in field goal percentage at 49%, but Denver was No. 4.
Think the Nuggets will play better all four quarters in this one, so will go ahead and take Denver and the points in this one.
6/8/21
An all-around ugly night saw me drop both NBA plays yesterday, as the Bucks couldn’t mount any offense and the Suns waited a few minutes too long to start playing and didn’t cover in the first half, dropping the record to 119-113 on the season. Once again, both games are a bit tough from a handicapping perspective, although they should be considering they’re the playoffs and the lines should be as sharp as they’ve been all season.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: The Hawks came out and took it to Philadelphia in the opener, as the 76ers were unable to stop Atlanta from doing what they wanted to do. Philadelphia made a game of it in the second half, but as is frequently the case, when you’re playing catch-up all game you don’t quite get there. The public is expecting the Sixers to bounce back, as Philadelphia has been bet up to 6-point favorites in this one and the total is 223.5, which is 4 points higher than it was in the first game. Both of my numbers have this one at 217, so going to go against the public on the total and take a shot on the under in this one.
LA Clippers at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 4 in this one with a total of 220.5 and I have Utah winning 111-104 and 109-105, so pretty close to the number. I do have the Jazz leading by 8 at the break and Utah is -2.5 in the first half. While both full-game numbers are on the under, the first-half numbers are at 112, which is the first-half total, as well as 114, so the slightest of leans to the over there. The public is backing the Jazz a little bit, most likely on the assumption that Utah was able to rest, while the Clippers were battling the Mavericks for seven games, so it’s possible LA may have a little bit of fatigue, but really can’t imagine the Clippers having any sort of emotional letdown. It’s the conference semifinals and some of these guys have been on the big stage before, so don’t really see that as being a problem. Going to have to play the under here, as well, and hope to see the Clippers concentrate on that end of the court, which is what got them to this point. Two of the three games between the two this year saw 210 or fewer points.
6/7/21
We split our two NBA games on Sunday and now are faced with another two games for Monday night. We’re 119-111 on the season, so still have some work to do before the end of the season.
Milwaukee at Brooklyn: The Nets are favored by 1.5 at William Hill and the total on the game just climbed to 235.5. The Nets are -.5 in the first half and the total just climbed to 116. The Bucks were brutal from 3-point range in the opener, going just 6 for 30 and it ended up costing them in the end, as they came up 8 points short. The officials let the boys play for the most part, as there were just 28 free throws attempted in the game. When the teams met last in Milwaukee both teams attempted 26 and 27 foul shots, so it was basically half of what we saw in that one. The Bucks still had some solid inside play, with Lopez and Giannis, which should have helped open things up on the outside, but it didn’t pan out that way. The Rockets will be without James Harden for this one, but they showed they could win without him last time. Going to play the first-half over in this one, as the two teams have seen higher-scoring first halves this season.
Denver at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 4.5 and the total on this one is 220.5, while I have Phoenix winning 114-109 and 110-98. The Suns were better defensively at home down the stretch, so both home and away projections like the under, while the overall projections like both the first-half and full-game to go over the total. The Suns are favored by 2 with a total of 111.5 in the first half and I have Phoenix leading 58-54 and 58-50, so going to go ahead and take a shot on Phoenix -2 in the first half. The Suns led at the break in all three games between the two teams this year and think they’ll look to get off to a fast start in the opening game at home. The Nuggets did win two of the three games between the two this year, so the Suns need to come out and try and build a lead right from the start in order to fight off any second-half comeback by the Nuggets.
6/6/21
A pair of games in the NBA playoffs, as we’re at both ends of the spectrum, with a Game 1 between the Atlanta Hawks and the Philadelphia 76ers, along with Game 7 in the Dallas vs. Clippers series. Both games are tough from a betting perspective and the public is on Philadelphia and Dallas. We’re now 118-110 on the season, so still not where we need to be, but will continue to play each playoff game and see how it all shakes out in the end.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: The 76ers just moved from 2.5 to 3.5, while the total is at 220.5, while the Sixers are 1.5 in the first half with a total of 112. The Hawks were impressive last series against New York, although the Knicks presented far fewer problems than the Sixers will. Philadelphia is definitely more balanced offensively and a lot more dangerous. Both Joel Embiid and De’Andre Hunter are listed as questionable due to knee injuries and while Hunter is a big loss, it’s nothing like Embiid to the Sixers. The Sixers beat up a banged up Atlanta team in late April in Philadelphia, while Atlanta won the January game played in Atlanta. With the Hawks a bit banged up down the stretch, my numbers are all over Philly and three of the four like the under. Going to take a shot on the 76ers in the first half in a game that is a bit of a coin toss.
Dallas at Clippers: The Clippers have moved from 6 to 6.5, which is pretty remarkable being a playoff game and the Clippers are only getting 25% of the early wagers in the game. The total is 210.5, while the Clippers are 3.5 with a total of 107.5 in the first half. My numbers all like Dallas here, although that’s partially due to the Clippers missing their big guns for periods of time down the stretch. I can see why people are betting on Dallas, given the road court advantage we’ve seen in these playoffs so far. Dallas was a better road team than they were at home all season, while the Clippers were better at home. You would think Beverly and Leonard would be used to the big stage, but LA could be feeling a little pressure. The total has dropped 5.5 points from last game, but could well be decided by how much the officials let them play here. Going to go ahead and take a shot on Los Angeles -3.5 in the first half of this one. The first three games in LA were all two-point games at the break, but think LA attempts to come out strong in this one.
6/5/21
One of the most anticipated series in these playoffs tips-off today, as the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets meet. The Nets are favored by 4 and the total here is 239. The first-half sees Brooklyn -2 with a total of 118, while the Nets are -1 in the first quarter where the total is 59.5.
This is the second-highest playoff total we’ve seen in the last 18 years, topped only by the 240.5 we saw between the Pacers and the Wizards this season. How this one plays out is a guessing game right now, as the Bucks could try and play defense, which they can do, or they could decide to run up-and-down the court with the Nets and try to outscore them. Brooklyn also showed some defense at times down the stretch, which makes it that much more difficult.
Then there’s also the scenario we’ve seen plenty where teams will play loose in the first half and then get to business in the second half and play some ‘D.’ This seems to be the case in the playoffs in games with high totals. In games where the total is 230 or higher, totals have gone 21-29 and the games have seen an average of 119 points in the first half and just 109.6 in the second half. That does make the second half under 120.5 look a bit enticing, but in the three games between these two this season, we saw 119.3 first-half points and 121 points in the second half.
We saw both teams come out and play decent defense in their first playoff games, as the Bucks won 109-107 in overtime and Brooklyn came away with a 104-93 win over the Celtics.
I’m split on all of my numbers, with the overall numbers all calling for the Bucks and over, while the home and away numbers are partial to Brooklyn and the under.
A few other games have basically been toss-ups and this one falls into the same category. Without knowing how each team is approaching the game and the series, it’s tough to call.
Going to go ahead and take a shot on the under 239 in this one, thinking it may be a bit of a statement game for both teams. I think the Bucks will play a little more defense than we’ve seen at times, while the Nets will play harder on defense than they typically do.
6/4/21
We split our two games last night, so are 116-110 on the season, so we need to make up a few games as the playoffs go on. There’s just one game tonight, as the Los Angeles Clippers look to continue the trend of seeing the road team win each game, as the visit the Dallas Mavericks in a series they trail 3-2.
The Clippers are favored by 3 and the full-game total is 216.5 at William Hill. The first-half line is Los Angeles -1.5 with a total of 110 and the first-quarter line sees LA -1 and the total is 55.
The oddsmakers have caught on to the scoring patterns we’ve seen through the first five games to an extent, as there have been an average of 62.4 points in the first quarter and 57.4 in the second for a first-half total score of 119.8 points. In the third quarter the average dips to 48.2 and 48.4 in the fourth quarter for just 96.6 second-half points.
Both teams showed similar tendencies during the season, although it wasn’t quite as pronounced, with the Clippers seeing 111.9 first-half points and 108.5 second-half points, while Dallas saw 113.2 points in the first half and 108.6 in the second. As a whole, the league saw 113.2 first-half points and 109.6 points in the second half.
My full-game numbers have Dallas winning 107-105 and the home-away ratings are calling for a 106-101 Los Angeles victory. I have Dallas leading 61-55 and 62-57 at halftime with both numbers, while having the Mavs leading 31-27 and 31-28 after the first quarter.
One of the most surprising things about the Clippers is they were 27-20-1 in totals in the games they won and 9-19 when they were on the losing end, while the Mavs were 22-23 when they won and 14-17-1 when they lost. With the Clippers having Beverly and Leonard, who are known as being great defenders, you would think the Clippers would have more unders in their winning efforts.
The numbers like the Mavs in the first quarter and for the first half, while both of those overs, as well as the full-game under, so it’s really a question of which way to ride. The last two games have both landed under the total and think the Clippers are going to bring their defense right from the start, so will take a shot on the under 216.5 in this one.
6/3/21
A 2-2 split on Wednesday and now we’re faced with a pair of games, both of which have some injury concerns. We’re 115-109 on the season, so still need one good run, although the games are getting tougher from a handicapping standpoint.
Denver at Portland: The Blazers are favored by 4.5 and the total here is 227.5, while I have Portland winning by scores of 122-114 and 118-106. The key here is how the Blazers approach the game after letting the last game get away when they had a chance to steal a game on the road. The Blazers were impressive last game at home, holding the Nuggets to 34% shooting, which I don’t see happening again. The Nuggets have done a good job of attacking the basket, which is Portland’s weakness defensively. It didn’t work out in Game 4 for Denver, but wouldn’t be surprised to see them try to work the ball inside again, which gives them their best chance of winning. The Nuggets will be without will Barton once again and while not a big name, he is typically good for about 12 to 15 points a game and averaged 12.7 points this season. The Blazers are -3 and 116 in the first half, while I have Portland leading 63-60 and 63-54. Both numbers are calling for the Blazers to cover the full-game number and I don’t necessarily like it, but will tag along and take Portland -4.5.
Phoenix at Lakers: The Lakers opened -3 and the number is down to 2 on pretty mixed betting, while the total is 207. The Lakers are -1 and 101.5 in the first half of this one. I have Phoenix winning 106-102 and also have the Lakers winning 108-107 with the home and away numbers. In the first half, I have the Suns leading 54-49 and 52-50. Obviously, Anthony Davis is the big question mark coming into this one, where he is expected to be a game-time decision, along with Pope. If Davis was guaranteed to go, the Lakers would be larger favorites, as we saw Los Angeles -6.5 in each of the first two games played in Los Angeles. This is one of those games where it’s tough to make the call this early in the day, as the complexion could change depending on who is able to go. Going to take a shot on Suns +1 in the first half and hope if there are any Lakers’ heroics, they occur in the second half.
6/2/21
Four games in the NBA tonight, with the possibility of three series ending tonight. Games have been tough from a handicapping perspective, although we’ve managed to pull out a couple of close ones so far. Betting every game still isn’t the best of strategies, but it’s usually the most fun – or the most agonizing. We’re now 113-107 on the season.
Atlanta at New York: The Knicks are favored by 1.5 with a total of 208, while New York is -1 with a first-half total of 106. I have this at 101-101 and 107-89 for New York, primarily because Atlanta’s away numbers aren’t that great. In the first half, I have New York leading 54-50 and 54-42, with Atlanta’s road numbers the culprit once again with the second prediction. Think the Knicks have to get back to play solid, tough-nosed defense to extend the series, so will take a shot on the first half under 106.
Dallas at Clippers: The Clippers are -7 with a total of 217, while LA is -3.5 and 106.5 in the first half. The same people who wrote the Clippers off after the first two games have now written off the Mavs after Games 3 and 4, but I’m not entirely sure. Yes, it’s unlikely we’re going to see the road team win all seven games, but think the Mavs can keep this one close. I have Dallas leading by three with both projections, so will take a shot on Dallas +3.5 in the first half of this one.
Memphis at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 9.5 and the total in this one is 225, while my numbers are split on the full-game and first-half total. I have the Jazz sneaking in there with the cover, but I think this is a spot where the Grizzlies might keep it a little closer than expected. The Jazz opened 9.5 and the line has stayed there, despite nearly 70% of the wagers coming in on Utah, as the Jazz are the most lopsided team of the evening. Taking a shot on the Grizzlies +9.5 in this one.
Washington at Philadelphia: The 76ers are 6.5 with a total of 229.5, while the first-half line is 76ers -3.5 and 116.5. The Sixers were a lower-scoring team in the 10 games Embiid missed earlier this year and think they’d be better served in trying to slow the game down a bit here. Will take a shot on the first-half under 116.5.
5/31/21
A bit lucky to get the push in the total on the Knicks game after it looked pretty decent earlier in the game, which is how things go sometimes. Only two games on the slate today, with the Sixers trying to put an end to their series and the Jazz and Grizzlies in a big Game 4. We’re 111-107-2 on the season, although I typically omit the pushes from the record just to make it easier.
Philadelphia at Washington: The Wizards had no answer for Joel Embiid last game and can’t really see things being all that different in this one. The 76ers are all the way up to 8-point favorites and there are some 8.5’s out there, while the total is at 230. Surprisingly, a few shops have the game at 230-under (-115). Being a playoff game, there’s naturally more over wagers coming in than under bets, as the general public prefers the over. The first-half line in this one has Philadelphia -4.5 and a total of 117. I have Philadelphia leading 65-56 and 64-59, so will go ahead and take a shot on the first-half over in this one. A lot of it will have to do with the attitude of the Wizards and if they come out to play or are already thinking about the offseason. They did have a couple of winning streaks, so hoping they come and decide to play their game here and see what transpires.
Utah at Memphis: The Jazz are favored by 5.5 and the total on this game has climbed slightly, going from 223.5 to 225, which is a bit unusual, as the majority of totals have bet lower so far these playoffs. What’s even a bit stranger is that the percentage of wagers on the over is lower than it is in many games. In the Philadelphia game, the total opened 231 and with more than 80% of the wagers on the over, the game still dropped to 230. In this one, the number has climbed with 72% of the bets on the over. The Jazz are 2.5 with a total of 110.5 in the first half. Both teams see slightly more scoring in the first half of their games, so will take the first-half over in this one, as well. Not particularly because it’s a game I feel strongly about, but more because it’s the lessor of two evils in this one.
5/30/21
We managed to pull out a few close ones yesterday in what was a brutal day for the sportsbooks, with all four favorites covering the spread and three of the four games landing over the total. Tough slate of games for today, so will see what we can come up with.
New York at Atlanta: The Hawks put Game 3 away in the later stages of the first half, using a 22-5 run to take a double-digit halftime lead. Atlanta is favored by 5 and the total here is 209, with the Hawks -2 and 106.5 in the first half. The Hawks were pretty strong from the field last game and we only ended up with 199 points, so going to take a shot on the under 209 in this one, as have it 102-100 and 112-97, while being completely split in the first half.
Phoenix at LA Lakers: The Lakers are 6.5 with a total of 209.5, while LA is -3.5 with a total of 103 in the first half. I have this one 107-107 and 113-109, so going to go ahead and take a shot on Phoenix +6.5 in this one. The Suns came unglued a little bit towards the end of Game 3, but really have only themselves to blame. If you’re psyched out because Scott Foster is officiating your game, you’ve already put yourself in a hole.
Brooklyn at Boston: The Nets are favored by 7.5 with a total of 228.5, while the first-half line sees Brooklyn -3.5 with a total of 116.5. Brooklyn raced out to a huge lead last game, only to see Boston storm back with a 29-13 run to close the first quarter. Not sure if was a case of the Nets thinking they had the game won or the Celtics playing for pride. I’ve been back-and-forth on this one all morning, but will just follow the numbers and take a shot on the over 228.5 in this one, although obviously not thrilled with it. I have it at 232 and 250.
LA Clippers at Dallas: The Clippers are favored by 3 with a total of 221 and by 1 with a total of 112.5 for the first half. I have Dallas winning due to the Clippers being short-handed down the stretch without a few of their big guys for stretches, but will go ahead and take a shot on Dallas +1 in the first half of this one.
5/29/21
Back after missing a day due to an unexpected medical situation – where I had article written but then forgot to post in my efforts to get to the hospital as quickly as possible. Have to give credit to the Celtics last night, as they could have packed it in when trailing 19-4 in the first quarter, so they gave a little bit of an unexpected fight. Kind of a strange day today, as all four favorites are getting hammered by the betting public, with three of the four having more than 80% of the wagers in the game. The lone exception is Portland, which has still received two-thirds of the bets in their game. Normally that spells trouble, but favorites are 16-10-1 in the playoffs so far, counting the play-in games. Totals have seen a 15-12 mark so far.
Milwaukee at Miami: The Bucks are favored by 5 with a total of 221.5, while the first-half line is Milwaukee -2 and 109. Teams in Miami’s situation haven’t been very good wagers over the years, and home dogs who lost by 20 or more last playoff game as a home dog are just 4-14. But the Bucks have shown a tendency to coast through games all season and not entirely sure they’re going to bring their best effort. I have Milwaukee winning 122-116 and 118-111, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the over 221.5.
Denver at Portland: The Blazers are 4.5 with a total of 227.5, while the first-half line is Portland -3 with a total of 116, which is couple of points more than half of the full-game line. I have Portland winning 120-112 and 118-111, while I also have them leading 63-60 and 64-57, so taking a shot on the first-half over 116, as this could be one of those games where the teams play loose in the first half, which is their preferred style, and then get down to business in the second half.
Philadelphia at Washington: The Sixers are favored by 6 with a total of 228 and I have each team winning and covering, but do have a minimum of 237 points, so will take the over 228 for the full game in this one.
Utah at Memphis: The Jazz are favored by 5 with a total of 224 and I have Utah winning 114-106 and 109-103. Interestingly, playoff games that have seen a bounce in the total – games that went over the total by 30 points as the last game between these two did – have seen the next game go over the total at a 47-23 (67.1%) ratio, so not quite what you would probably expect. The Jazz are favored by 2.5 with a first-half total of 110, so will take a stab on the first-half over of this one.
5/27/21
We’re back down to .500 on the season after an ugly stretch here, so hoping to get it turned around. Just a bad call on the Jazz game, while the Knicks waited until the second half to play in a game I thought they’d come out stronger. We’ve seen the officials have an impact on totals so far, with games that see both teams attempt 30 free throws now 38-10 in totals the last 10 years.
Milwaukee at Miami: The Heat opened as small favorites and the Bucks are now 1.5 with a total of 226.5 in one of those games that appears to be made for parlay bettors, with those liking Milwaukee expecting a high-scoring game, while those liking Miami are probably expecting a lower-scoring game. What surprising about this one is Miami is favored by .5 in the first quarter and by 1 in the first half. The Bucks led 46-20 after the first quarter of Game 2 and pretty much put the game away in less than four minutes, racing to a 15-2 lead and weren’t challenged the rest of the way. Away favorites off a 130-point game have gone 8-3 ATS in the next game and 7-4 in totals. I have the Heat leading by 2 and by 7 after the first quarter, so will take a shot on the Heat -.5 in the first quarter.
Phoenix at Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 7 and the total is 210.5 and am going to take the under in this one. It took a miracle for the last game to end at 211, much to our chagrin as the under looked pretty good until a parade of free throws in the final minute and the game ended with both teams taking 30 or more foul shots, so no surprise it went over the total.
Denver at Portland: The Blazers are favored by 4 with a total of 227.5 and I have Portland winning and covering with both number, while the total is split, as I do have a 120-107 projection. Game 2 was another of those that saw the total partially decided by the officials, with both teams attempting at least 28 foul shots and those have gone over the total at a 75% clip the past 10 seasons. The first two games went over the number, which has led to about a 45% over ratio the past 10 years. If Denver can get the ball inside again, the Nuggets can do some damage, as we saw last time. Going to take a shot on the first-half over 116 here and hope to see Denver pound the ball inside once again.
5/26/21
Ugly day in the NBA yesterday, capped off by a horrible loss with the Lakers under, as we’ve been up or down the entire playoffs, so hopeful to keep that streak going.
Washington at Philadelphia: The 76ers overcame a bit of a slow start in Game 1 to get the win in Game 1, although Washington was able to sneak in there and get the cover. The teams only saw 55 points in the first quarter and then play higher-scoring quarters the next two quarters and then saw 51 points when things counted. The 76ers are favored by 8 and the total is 229.5, which is up slightly from the 228 we saw in Game 1. The first-half line is 76ers -4.5 and 117. I think both teams will come out strong in this one and going to take a stab on the first half over the total.
Atlanta at New York: The Knicks are favored by 2 in this one and the total is 212.5, which makes sense, as the teams only combined for 27 free throws, while there were 48 in the Philadelphia game and 54 in the Utah game. Playoff games where both teams attempted 15 free throws are less are 2-17 in totals. As I mentioned last game, the Hawks are a little bit of a question mark due to players missing time. New York got off to a slow start in Game 1 and now with a game under them, thinking they’ll do a better job early, so will take the Knicks -1 in the first half. Wanted to take the over here, due to the lack of foul shots last game, but the trends showed these games are pretty much 50-50.
Memphis at Utah: The Jazz are in a decent situation regarding big favorites who lost in the playoffs (19-12-1) but Memphis showed some heart in the opener. For Utah to be successful, they need to play defense the way they’re capable of so like the under 219 in this one. The Jazz are favored by 9.5, which is steep, although I have them winning by 10 and 11, so the line is pretty much right where it should be. The officials helped the Jazz in the opener with 33 foul shots. Playoff games with at least one team shooting 30 free throws have gone over the total 60.5% of the time over the years.
5/25/21
Three games on tap for today in the NBA and a bit tough from a handicapping perspective, so will do what we can here. We’ve been a little up-and-down in the playoffs, going 3-1, 1-3, and 2-0 so far. We’ll continue with the plays on every game, although it’s a bit tricky tonight, as the Nets, Lakers and Clippers all head players missing down the stretch.
Boston at Brooklyn: The Nets are 9.5 and the total is 227 at William Hill, while I have the Nets winning 118-110 but also 105-98 with the home and away numbers. Boston doesn’t have the horses to match-up to the Nets offensively, although that isn’t always easy for a team to admit. The wise guys are on the under in this one and I’d agree to an extent, but will try the first half under 112.5, as I have the Nets leading 60-50 and also 50-46. Both teams have their home and away numbers a little distorted due to not many games and missing a few key players.
Lakers at Phoenix: The Lakers are favored by 1.5 and the total is all the way to 209.5, which is the lowest number the Suns have played to this season. Last time we followed Phoenix under when the total is below 215, as the Suns are now 0-6 in that spot, although the Bucks were in an under situation last night and carried the over in that one by themselves. But will have to try and stick with what has worked so far, and will go ahead and take a shot on the under 209.5 in this one and hope for another defensive battle.
Dallas at Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 7 in this one and the oddsmakers are expecting LA to get off to a fast start, as LA is favored by 3 in the first quarter and by 5 at the half. Dallas shot 50% from the field last time and 47.2% from 3-point range, which helped overcome their -7 turnover deficit. The Clippers struggled from the field a little bit in the first game and think LA rebounds with a better effort. I have the Clippers leading after the first quarter by 2 and by 4 points, but will go ahead and take a shot on the Clippers -3 in the first quarter in this one.
5/24/21
A 1-3 day on Sunday after a 3-1 day on Saturday, so .500 for the first two days of the playoffs. Scoring is down a little bit, as we’re seeing 26.5 points in the first quarter compared to 28.9 in the last month of the regular season, while first-half scoring is 53.7 after being 57.1 down the stretch of the regular season. Full-game scoring is down 2.9 points to 110.4. So, I’ll make a 2-point adjustment in the projections, just subtracting a point from both teams and see if that gets us a little closer with the totals projections, which have been a bit on the high side so far.
Just two games today, so we’ll get right to it.
Miami at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened as 4-point favorites and have been bet up to 4.5, while the total is down to 222.5, which is a 4.5-point swing from the total in Game 1. My numbers still have the Bucks winning high-scoring games, with the quarter, first-half and full-game numbers all on the over. The Bucks have gone 3-9 in totals when the number is less than 225, so won’t be on the over in this one, especially having lost with it on Saturday. The Heat can play defense when they want to and had a few stretches during the regular season when they were a solid under team. Even though my numbers are calling for the Heat to get the cover, going to take a shot on Milwaukee -4.5. The move from 4 to 4.5 was big, especially since the Heat are getting 65% of the wagers in the game. Milwaukee didn’t shoot very well in the opener, going a brutal 5 for 31 from 3-point range and still winning. If the Bucks can hit from the outside they can win this one more comfortably.
Portland at Denver: The Nuggets are favored by 1.5 with a total of 227 in this one and my numbers have the Blazers winning once again, 118-112 and 121-113. Portland was on fire from long range in the opener, going 19 for 40, while Denver was 11 for 36 and that turned out to be the difference in the game. Expecting the Nuggets to try and come out strong in this one, especially on the defensive side and will take a shot on the Nuggets -1 in the first quarter. Surprisingly, the first-half is just Denver -.5, so a rare occasion where the first-quarter line is higher than the first-half number.
5/23/21
Another four games in the NBA playoffs today, so another four plays here, as we’ll keep the formula of taking the biggest difference between the lines and our projections. We’re 100-96 on the season, so have some ground to make-up, although this isn’t the best strategy. But as I said yesterday, you have to balance the financial aspect with having fun and for many people, that means watching all the playoff games with something riding on the outcome.
Atlanta at New York: The Knicks are favored by 1 and the total on the game is 214.5, while I have New York winning 107-104 and also 118-90, although that last number is due to the Hawks only having a few road games down the stretch and stinking it up in those games. The Hawks are getting a lot of play in this one, as the line has dropped from New York -2.5 to Knicks -1 even though New York has been getting two-thirds of the wagers. Not really thrilled with this one, but will take the Knicks -.5 in the first half, as I have them leading by double-digits with both methods.
Washington at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 8 and I have them winning 122-116 and 130-110 with the home and away ratings. The Sixers aren’t an imposing No. 1 seed, but they did get the job done, especially at home this year. I have Philly leading 36-26 and 35-24 after the first quarter, so will take the 76ers -2.5 in the first quarter and hope to see them come out of the gate strong.
Lakers at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 2.5 and the total here is 213, while I have Phoenix winning 116-109 and 115-99, but the Lakers’ numbers are obviously distorted a bit due to their injuries. The Lakers are getting the majority of the wagers in the game, which is why the line has come down from 3. Going to play the Suns -1.5 in the first half of this one. Gave some thought to the over, but the Suns were 0-5 when the total was below 215 this season.
Memphis at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 8.5 with a total of 216 and you have to wonder if Memphis will be ready for this one after pulling off the upset against Golden State on the road. I have Utah winning by 10 with both numbers, but the biggest difference here is the first-half over 106, so that will be the play in this one.
5/22/21
We managed to get there with the Grizzlies last night, although it did get a little too exciting towards the end of the first quarter. Still, we’re just 97-95 on the season and need a good run in the playoffs. It’s also the playoffs, so a number of bettors want to play every game, so we’ll have plays on pretty much every game, which isn’t usually the bet philosophy, but sports betting should also be fun, so will see how things play out here.
I ran numbers for the first quarter, first half and full game, so we’ll typically just have the one play with the biggest difference between the line and my projections, regardless of where it lands.
Miami at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 5 with a total of 227 and I have Milwaukee winning 124-119 and 130-120 with the home and away numbers, so going to take a shot on the over 227. My numbers have the first quarter, first half and full game all landing over the posted totals, and are split on the sides for the first quarter and first half. The Heat played at a higher-scoring clip down the stretch than was expected, but can also turn around and try to slow things down, but being Game 1, they may be willing to look for offense.
Boston at Brooklyn: The Nets are favored by 8 and the total has climbed to 232, while I have Brooklyn winning 119-112 and also 112-105, although a part of the home and away projection is due to having players out for both teams. Still, the Nets played better defense down the stretch than they get credit for and think they may try to show they’re not entirely a one-dimensional team. The first half total is 114 and my highest projection is 110, so will take a shot on the first-half under in this one.
Dallas at Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 5.5 with a total of 218 and I have both teams winning 108-107, but again, the Clippers were missing Leonard and Beverley at times down the stretch. LA is -3 with a total of 110 in the first half and I have Dallas leading with both sets of numbers, so will take Dallas +3 in the first half.
Portland at Denver: Denver is now favored by 1 with a total of 227.5 and I have Portland winning with both numbers, but the biggest difference is in the first half total, where I have Denver leading 62-59 and 66-59, so will take the first half over 116 in this spot.
5/21/21
We had a few chances in the last 30 seconds to get a basket, but came up two points short for the first-half over, which is how things have gone for the most part of the season. Another day with one game, as Memphis visits Golden State and the Warriors are getting hit by the betting public, as though the game is already over. As of 10 a.m. this morning, more than 85% of the wagers in the game had been on Golden State. It’s hard to fault anybody liking Golden State, especially after the Wizards blasted the Pacers.
The Warriors are favored by 4.5 after opening as 3-point favorites and that’s a pretty significant move considering it’s a playoff game, while the total is at 221. My full game numbers have Golden State winning 115-106 and 122-109, but not thrilled with being on such a public side as Golden State.
In the first half, the Warriors are -2 and the total is 108.5 and I have Golden State leading 57-53 with the overall numbers and have Memphis leading 55-54 with the home and away numbers.
In the first quarter, Golden State is 1 with a total of 55.5 and I have the Grizzlies leading 29-28 and 31-27 with the home and away numbers.
The Grizzlies were a strange team down the stretch, as they outscored foes 29.1 to 26.5 in the first quarter, only to be outscored in each of the next three quarters. They didn’t show a big difference in any one quarter in terms of total points, as their lowest scoring quarter was the third quarter, which saw 54.7 points and their highest scoring quarter was the second quarter at 56.5, so a difference of less than two points.
On the road, Memphis did see more second half points than they did in the first half, but still got off to a decent start, with a first-quarter scoring advantage of 29.3-25.9.
The Warriors saw high-scoring first quarters, with an average of 59.3 points and then just 53.2 in the second quarter. Golden state was outscored 29.4 to 29.9 in the first quarter.
At home, the Warriors were outscored by .5 points in the first quarter, but saw 61.1 points compared to 51.9 in the second.
This is a tough one to call, but going to just follow the numbers here and take a shot on Memphis +1 in the first quarter.
5/20/21
Just one game on the NBA slate tonight, as the Pacers and Wizards meet in Washington with the winner taking the No. 8 seed out of the Eastern Conference and the loser out. It’s somewhat unchartered territory, as we’ve never had such thing before, as well as this game having the highest playoff total we’ve seen in at least the last 18 years. It doesn’t seem possible that it wasn’t too terrible long ago we’d see playoff totals in the 160s and 170s on a routine basis, but the game has changed. We split our two plays last night.
The Wizards just climbed to 3.5 at William Hill and the total is 237.5.
The Wizards are -1.5 in the first half, where the total is 120, while Washington is -1 with a first-quarter of total of 60.
The Pacers were a strange team in that played better on the road than they did at home this season, both in terms of scoring margin and wins and losses. They were also a higher-scoring team on the road.
The Wizards were more of a traditional team with the typical home court edge and the Wizards were hot down the stretch, going 17-10 straight-up in April and May, along with a 19-6-2 ATS record. The Pacers were just 14-13 straight-up and 15-10-2 ATS.
The total here is interesting, as both teams aren’t afraid to play high-scoring affairs, but will they do so with the playoffs on the line. The teams met three times and we saw scores of 132-124, 154-141 and 133-132. The average score by quarter was 61.3 in the first, 68 in the second, 72 in the third and 65 in the fourth quarter.
There have been 19 playoff games with a total of 230 or higher and they’ve seen 59.6 points in the first quarter, 61 in the second quarter, 56.2 in the third and 52.6 in the fourth quarter, so it looks as though the teams were willing to run and trade baskets in the first half before getting serious in the second half.
My projections based on the last month’s worth of games show Indiana leading after the first quarter 36-34 and 37-32, while I have Washington leading 67-65 at half with the overall ratings and have the Pacers leading 69-66 with the home and away ratings.
The full-game ratings have Washington 132-130 and also have Indiana 139-129.
I gave some though to the first-quarter over, although that turned out to be the lowest-scoring quarter when the teams met, so will go ahead and take a stab on the first-half over 120 and hope the teams hold true to form and any defensive effort shows itself in the second half.
5/19/21
Fell to 95-93 on the season last night in ugly fashion, as I settled on the full game under in the Pacers’ game instead of the first-half under. A case of over-thinking it and thinking something was up with the first-half total, which was 116 with a full-game total of 227. Two more games on the slate for today and once again, they’re a bit tough from a handicapping perspective.
San Antonio at Memphis: The Grizzlies are favored by 1.5 in the first half with a total of 109 and I have this one 55-54 for Memphis and 55-53 for the Spurs with the home and away numbers. The Grizzlies have been getting hammered in the full-game betting, which has moved the number from Memphis -3 to Memphis -4, as roughly three-quarters of the wagers in the game have been on the home favorite. Definitely a little surprised the first-half number isn’t Memphis -2 in this one. The Grizzlies were 2-1 against the Spurs this season and the road team won all three games in blowout fashion. The closest game of the season was San Antonio’s 12-point win. The Spurs come limping into the playoffs, having gone just 1-4 in their last five games, while Memphis was 4-1, losing the last game of the regular season to Golden State. Taking San Antonio +1.5 in the first half here.
Golden State at LA Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 3 with a total of 111.5 in the first half and I have Golden State leading 55-54 and 54-53, but those stats were pretty much created with LeBron James out of the line-up and the Lakers are a different team with him and Anthony Davis in the line-up. Los Angeles pretty much waxed the Warriors during the regular season. After being upset as 9-point home favorites, the Lakers won the next two meetings 117-91 and 128-97. The first half total is a bit tricky, as both teams are capable of playing defense if they put their minds to it, but things don’t always play out that way. The Lakers have been a better under team on the road this season, while the Warriors were 6-9 the past month and a strong under team during the regular season. Will go ahead and take a shot on the under in the first half, as the Warriors showed a tendency to play higher-scoring first quarters and then see lower-scoring second quarters.
5/18/21
The NBA playoffs begin today with the novel play-in games, which allowed two more teams to have a chance to play for the trophy, which isn’t a bad thing. These games are essentially Game 7 types of contests, especially for Charlotte and Indiana, as the loser of the game is done for the year, while the winner will play the loser of the Washington and Boston game for a chance to be the No. 8 team.
We all know about playoff games being lower scoring and in the 2018-19 season, scoring went from 222.4 points in the regular season to 215.4 in the playoffs, as totals were 37-43-2. The previous season saw scoring go from 212.6 to 208.8 and a 36-44-2 totals record. In 2016-17 scoring went from 211.2 to 212 and as expected, totals were a solid 48-30-1 in the postseason.
First-half numbers have also dropped, with teams scoring 56.0 points in the first half of 2018-19 and then 53.8 in the playoffs, while there was a reduction from 53.6 to 52 the previous season. In 2016-17, scoring also went up, with teams scoring 53 points in the first half during the regular season and 53.5 in the playoffs.
Charlotte at Indiana: The Pacers are favored by 3 with a total of 227 for the full game, while the first half line has the Pacers -1.5 and the total is 116. I have the Pacers leading 60-59 with the overall numbers, but have Charlotte leading 58-57 with the home and away numbers. The Pacers were a better second half team, as both numbers have Indiana covering, with scores of 118-111 and 113-109. The Pacers were a lower scoring team at home this season, so will go ahead and play the under 227 for the full game here, as we should see a bit of defensive intensity in this one.
Washington at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 2 and are getting a little bit of respect, so I’m a little torn on this one, as I have the Wizards winning the game, but the Celtics didn’t put in much effort at times down the stretch. With the loser of the game getting another chance to make it in the playoff field, I’m not quite so sure we’ll see the defensive effort we should in the Pacers’ game. Both full-game projections are on the over, while the numbers are split in the first-half total, although all four like the Wizards. Will stay away here.
5/16/21
Statistical handicappers have it easy today, as you can basically throw out all of the stats and simply look at the situations in play for each game. Who is trying to win and who is trying to lose? Denver has no incentive to win today, while Portland does, so can’t be shocked to see the Blazers favored by double digits, while Phoenix has plenty of incentive to win, but will need help from the Kings in the way of knocking off the Jazz. The Wizards and Hornets both have some incentive to get the No. 8 seed, which will give them two chances to advance to the playoffs, while the loser will fall to No. 9.
The Nets need to win against Cleveland to clinch the No. 2 spot, as Milwaukee has the tie-breaker. The other problem today is that a lot of the teams that have been eliminated are better off losing due to draft position, so use some caution and take it easy, as all of the games will matter here in a few days. The majority of games don’t have first-half lines.
We’re 94-92 on the season, so will need a good run in the playoffs to end up where we need to be and today isn’t a great day to go all-out due to all of the unknowns.
Milwaukee at Chicago: I liked the Bulls +2.5 in this one earlier this morning, but farted around too long and the line has now dropped to Bucks -1.5, but will still go ahead and take Chicago in this one. The Nets should cruise past the Cavaliers in a game that will be over shortly after this one starts and the Bucks will probably have a good idea this one means absolutely nothing before tip-off. We’ve seen the Bucks lack of effort at times this season and in a game with nothing on the line, can’t see Milwaukee taking any chances here. The Bucks did put in a little bit of effort against the Heat last night, perhaps trying to send a message before a possible first-round match-up and don’t think that will be the case here. For the Bulls, it’s a matter of trying to end the season on a positive note in front of the home fans. Not a game I really like by any stretch of the imagination, but with all the question marks one that I think makes a little sense.
5/15/21
We’re at the guessing game known as the final two days of the NBA season, where it’s a little difficult to tell who is going to be making much of an effort and who is going to be sitting out for rest. The worst thing, at least for bettors, is when teams don’t announce anything and then play their starters for less than a quarter, as then you’re stuck with a bad line. At least if teams make their plans known in advance, you get a better line if you’re playing a team resting their players.
Strange schedule today, as all of the games are early, with the exception of the Miami at Milwaukee game. Right now, the Bucks have a chance to catch Brooklyn for the No. 2 spot, but the Nets are huge favorites over Chicago today. We went 2-1 last night to move to 93-92 in what has been a bit of a trying season.
Miami at Milwaukee: This is the lone game tonight, so this is the one we’ll play this one. The Heat are favored by 2, so not sure what the Bucks’ plans are for this one, as I’ve yet to see anything official, but have to think Milwaukee may be sitting a few players, especially if the Nets win in the afternoon. The total here is 117.5 and I have this one at 121 and 128 in the first half, so will take a shot on the first half going over the total in this one. If Milwaukee is disinterested, they may just try to go out and have fun and put up 120 even if they allow more.
Boston at Minnesota: The Wolves are favored by 2 in the first half of this one and the total is 113.5, while I have Minnesota leading 61-54 with the overall numbers and 55-54 with the home and away numbers, so nothing really happening in this one. The Wolves do close out the season tomorrow against Dallas. If they were on the road may have taken them here, but lean that way a little bit.
Chicago at New York: The Nets are favored by 6 in the first half and the total is 115.5 and I have it a little closer at 55-52 and 55-50, although that doesn’t really factor in the return of Harden. Wouldn’t be a total shock to see Brooklyn come out hard and try to get the starters out in the second half. The Bulls have Milwaukee at home tomorrow and may be gearing up for that one.
5/14/21
A split last night and a pretty full slate of games for Friday, as we try to wind up the regular season on a bit of a positive note, although the last few games can be a little tricky, as a number of players already have their minds on next week and what they’ll do in the offseason. Still at .500 after last night.
Cleveland at Washington: The Wizards are 4.5 in the first half and the total on this one is 115.5, while I have the Wizards leading 63-55 and 62-52. The Wizards will be without Beal, but needing a win to clinch the final play-in spot, you have to expect a decent effort out of the Wizards, who have a game against Charlotte remaining. The Cavs defeated Boston in their final home game of the season last time out, so don’t really see a whole lot of motivation for the Cavs, so will go ahead and take a shot on the Wizards in this one.
Utah at Oklahoma City: The Jazz are favored by 8.5 with a total of 108.5 and I have Utah leading 64-52 and 66-47, so will go ahead and take the Jazz in this one, as they need to hang on to the No. 1 seed in the West. The Thunder have a game remaining against the Clippers at home and think they’ll try to rally for that one and don’t see much incentive for them here. Have to think the Jazz will look to come out strong and take care of business.
Orlando at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 8 and the total here is 106 and I have the 76ers leading 60-45 and 61-46, so will have to make it a third favorite tonight and go ahead and take Philadelphia. The two teams met again on Sunday, so the 76ers only need to take care of business against Orlando to have the top spot in the East entering the playoffs.
LA Clippers at Houston: The Clippers are favored by 6 with a total of 115 and I have Los Angeles leading 61-55 and 59-54, so nothing really happening in this one. The Clippers could rest Leonard and Paul George for this one and would like to take the Rockets in their final home game of the season, but can’t quite pull the trigger with Houston having so many players injured themselves.
5/13/21
Dropped last night’s play, as James Harden did play and the Spurs came up a little short in the first half after a dismal opening 12 minutes. The loss puts us back to .500 on the season, so a bit of a disappointment, so will need a solid playoff run. It’s the usual assortment on the injury report for today, along with a possible lack of effort by some teams, but a few games don’t look bad.
LA Clippers at Charlotte: The Clippers are favored by 5 with a total of 113.5 and I have the Hornets leading with both numbers, although the Clippers were a little short-handed at times during the last month, which is where I pull the stats from. It’s the final home game of the season for Charlotte and believe they’ll try to put on a good show, so will take Charlotte +5 in this one.
San Antonio at New York: The Knicks are favored by 3 and the total is 106, while I have the Knicks leading 57-54 and 58-54, so going to take a shot on the over in this one. Both teams have scored a little bit as of late and think the team’s reputations have come into play a little bit. Both teams can score, but can also stink it up from the field for stretches, so it won’t be easy, but think they can get over the total.
Philadelphia at Miami: The Heat are favored by .5 and the total in this one is 111, while I have the Sixers leading 56-55 and also have the Heat leading 57-55, so nothing happening in this one. The Heat are trying to get the No. 4 seed, while the Sixers are trying to sew up the Eastern Conference, so both teams have a little bit of incentive to win this one.
Milwaukee at Indiana: The Bucks are favored by 4.5 and the total is 120, while I have Milwaukee leading 64-63 with the overall numbers, but 65-56 with the home and away numbers, as the Bucks have been allowing fewer points on the road and the Pacers have scored fewer at home. Still, Milwaukee’s totals record in games with a number of 237 or higher (7-1-1) makes it hard to do anything but take the over here, although I’ll just let this one go.
5/12/21
My least favorite outcome last night, winning a game that followers could have pushed or lost if they bet late on a game that shouldn’t have been as close as it was at the break. Would much rather lose a game that followers could have pushed or won, but things don’t always work out as you would hope.
Today’s slate could be the toughest of the season so far, with players injured/resting and some teams having packed it for the year and are just playing out the string. Some teams do have some incentive as far as seeding positions go or are trying to finish in the top 10 of their respective conferences, but they don’t always play as motivated as you might think they would. Just 90-89 on the season, so would like to pick up another game or two entering the playoffs.
Washington at Atlanta: The Hawks are favored by 3.5 and the first-half total is 121, while I have Washington leading 67-63 and 67-66, but the problem here is Beal will again miss the game for the Wizards, while the Hawks are sitting De’Andre Hunter. Some of the Hawks stats for this match-up are from when Young was out and with Beal’s loss a little more impactful than Hunter’s, so it’s tough to get involved in this one. The teams played a great game two nights ago when the Hawks won 125-124.
San Antonio at Brooklyn: The Nets are 1.5 with a total of 114.5 and I have the Spurs leading 59-57 and 57-55. The Nets are trying to hold off Milwaukee for the No. 2 spot, while the Spurs are trying to clinch the final play-in spot in the West. Harden is expected to be a game-time decision for the Nets, which obviously has an impact in this one, but it could take the Nets a game or two to get everybody back in sync. Don’t really like it, but will just follow the numbers and take a stab on San Antonio +1.5 in this one.
Houston at Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 7.5 with a total of 113.5 and I have LA leading 62-53 and 64-56, but Houston is really banged up right now and this one could be ugly. James could come back in this one, although the Lakers should be able to handle Houston without him as long as they’re not too beat up from last night’s game.
5/11/21
We split our games on Monday and now have a large slate of games and we’ll try to keep our heads above water until the playoffs start, as you can expect to see a huge lack of effort from some teams now that we’re drawing to the close of the regular season. The numbers don’t really have much impact on some of the games right now. We’re still at .500 after yesterday, so obviously some work to do.
LA Clippers at Toronto: The Clippers are favored by 7 and the total here 110.5 in the first half and going to go ahead and take the Clippers in this one. The Raptors are out of it and their injury list looks like the team’s roster, with Lowry and VanVleet getting rested for this one. It’s technically a home game for Toronto, but since they’ll most likely be playing back in Canada next season, there’s no need to give a show for the few fans who attend the game. The Raptors do play one more game in Tampa to close the season against the Pacers and we may see a little fight in that one, as a way to thank the city and the arena for letting them play there.
Minnesota at Detroit: The Wolves are favored by 4 with a total of 115.5 and I have this one 57-57 and 57-56 for Minnesota, so the numbers like the Pistons a little bit, although Detroit is tanking a bit, while the Wolves have played hard for the most part down the stretch. This is the last road game of the year for Minnesota, so you have to wonder how much effort goes into this one, as the team’s final three games of the year are at home.
Brooklyn at Chicago: The Nets are favored by 2 with a total of 118 and I have this one 54-54 and 55-54 for the Nets, so not much happening with the side. The total is a little tough here, as the Bulls played more defensive while LaVine was out, so not entirely sure I buy the under projection. These two meet again in a few days in Brooklyn. The Bulls need this one to keep their slim play-in hopes alive, but with the Nets only a game in front of Milwaukee, it’s one Brooklyn will be trying to get, as well. Tough game to play, but not a bad one to watch.
5/10/21
Strange NBA season so far, as we started off strong then hit a lull and floundered around .500 for quite a while. A good run put us back 8 games over .500, only to see another losing skid hit and with last night’s loss on Detroit, are all the way back down to .500, so hopefully we can continue the roller-coaster with another upswing. Will take a look at full-games lines today just to shake things up a little bit and get this article taken care of, as it’s time to get serious about the WNBA, which for some reason has been one of my better sports over the past three seasons.
Indiana at Cleveland: The Pacers are favored by 6 and the total here is 229.5, while I have Indiana rolling to the victory, with the overall numbers calling for a 124-115 win and the home and away numbers calling for a 140-114 blowout, so will go ahead and take a shot on the over 229.5. The Cavs have been brutal at home defensively lately, while the Pacers are scoring more on the road.
Utah at Golden State: The Jazz are favored by 2.5 with a total of 229.5 and I have the Warriors winning 113-110 with both sets of numbers, so will take a shot on Golden State in this one. The Warriors have been a home underdog twice over the past month and knocked off the Nuggets both games, so think they’ll give a good effort here. Was hoping for a little more generous line in this one.
Milwaukee at San Antonio: The Bucks are favored by 7.5 and the total is 233, which might be a bit on the high side, as I have this one 120-115 on the overall numbers, but 108-99 on the home and away numbers. Was looking for a reason to take the Spurs here, but can’t really find one so will just stay clear of this game.
Houston at Portland: The Blazers are favored by 13 and the total here is 239, which could be a bit high, as I have the Blazers leading 127-108 and 124-111. As is often the case with the Rockets, how the fourth quarter plays out is often the key to the total, as the Rockets score a little more in the second half, but allow fewer points due to the opposition having a lot of the role players in the game.
5/9/21
Settled for a split when all was said and done yesterday in one those days where the close ones go against you, but we all have days like that and today have one of the tougher cards we’ve had in a little, as just one play and even it doesn’t give a ton of confidence.
Chicago at Detroit: The Bulls are favored by 5 at Detroit with a total of 108, which is a little bit higher than the numbers indicate due to the return of Zach LaVine, who can score and while trying to get better of defense, still isn’t what you would call a good defender by any stretch of the imagination. I’ve stayed away from the Bulls under the past couple of games and will do so once again in this one, as I have Detroit leading 51-50 and 52-47, but will take a shot on the Pistons +5 in this one.
New York at LA Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 4 and the total is 109.5 and I have it 56-56 with the overall scoring averages and 56-53 for the Clippers with the home and away averages, as the Clippers have been tough at home. Not really enough of an edge to take the dog here.
Dallas at Cleveland: The Mavs are 6.5 and the total is 110 and I have Dallas leading 58-52 with the overall numbers and 64-50 with the home and away numbers, so the first projection is a little too close to the line to take a stand on this one.
Miami at Boston: The Heat are -.5 in the first half with a total of 113, while I have Miami 56-54 and 58-56, so the slightest of leans to the Heat, but no interest in playing this one.
New Orleans at Charlotte: The Hornets are favored by 2 and the total is 113 and I have it 55-55 and 56-56, so another game with a very slight lean to the Pelicans, but a little too close to make a play.
Oklahoma City at Sacramento: The Kings are favored by 5 with a total of 113 and I have it 67-54 and 62-60, which would normally be a quick over play, but we’ve seen the Kings concentrate on defense lately and get themselves back into the hunt for the play-in game, although the loss to the Spurs really hurt.
5/8/21
Just a brutal night on the hardwood, ending 1-4 for the night, as things fell apart in a couple of games that looked decent early on. Right now can’t do anything right as far as the article goes, skipping plays that turn out to win and last night – listing plays that I typically wouldn’t have – and seeing them go down the tubes. Going to list them all once again, as I always say the best value in the daily articles is all the numbers, not the selections.
Washington at Indiana: The Wizards are 1.5 with a huge total of 126, but I have this one 69-66 for Indiana and 68-63 for the Wizards, with the home and away numbers, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the over in this one and hope we see something that resembles an all-star game.
Detroit at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 6 and the total is 111 and I have the 76ers 60-49 and 63-48, so will have to come right back with Philadelphia and lay the points in this one.
Brooklyn at Denver: The Nets are favored by 2 and the total here is 117.5 and I made it Denver 62-54 with both sets of numbers, so will take a shot on the Nuggets +2 in this spot.
San Antonio at Portland: The Blazers are favored by 3 with a total of 113 and I have this one 56-56 and also have the Spurs leading 56-52, so will take a shot on San Antonio +3 in this one.
Houston at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 9 and the total here is 115. I have the Jazz leading by a score of 69-52 and 69-54, so will just follow the numbers and take the Jazz-9 and also the over 115.
Memphis at Toronto: Memphis is favored by 3 and the total here is 111 and I have the Raptors leading 58-56 and also have Memphis leading 60-51 with the home and away numbers. The Raptors have not played well in Tampa the past month, so don’t really have much of a home court advantage.
Oklahoma City at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 8.5 and the total is 114 and I’m all over the place here, with the Warriors leading 64-52 in the overall numbers but just 55-53 with the home and away numbers.
5/7/21
We went 1-1-1 on Thursday, so will just drop the push from the record, so we’re 84-80 entering tonight’s action. Had I not tried to get too choosy on the plays, the record would be quite a bit better, so going to go ahead and have five plays for tonight and see how things all play out.
New Orleans at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 5 and the first-half total on this one is 116 and I have Philadelphia leading 62-52 and 65-51, so going to lay the points with the 76ers in this one. The Pelicans shut down the Sixers when they played last month in New Orleans, coming away with a 101-94 win, as both teams stunk from the field.
Houston at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 10 and the total here is 118 and I have Milwaukee leading 68-49 and 72-54, so going to lay the big number in this one, as well. The Bucks rolled into Houston a week ago and were beat 143-136, so think Milwaukee is a little more focused for what otherwise be a letdown spot. The Rockets are beat up pretty bad and the Bucks should be able to name the score here.
Orlando at Charlotte: The Hornets are favored by 3.5 with a total of 106.5 and I have this one 55-48 for Charlotte, but also have Orlando leading 47-45, so going to take the under in this one, even though it’s a pretty small number.
Minnesota at Miami: The Heat are favored by 3 and the total is 114.5 and I have Miami leading 64-58 and 65-58, so going to go ahead and take the over in this one. The Wolves have been brutal on defense lately and while the Heat have a couple of players listed as questionable, they should be able to score some points.
San Antonio at Sacramento: The Spurs are favored by 2.5 and the total on this one is 111 and I have San Antonio leading 58-56 and 64-55, so will take the over in this one, also. The Kings have been playing better defense the past few games, but think they revert back to their typical offensive team now that they’ve returned home.
Denver at Utah: The best game of the night sees the Nuggets visit Utah and the Jazz are favored by 2 with a total of 110 and I have this one 56-52 and 55-53, so the numbers give the slightest of leans to the under if you have to play it.
5/6/21
Yet another night where I completely botched this article, trying to get too choosy instead of just letting the numbers do their thing, which has been the best path to take lately. Fell to 83-79 on the season.
Washington at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 1.5 in the first half with a total of 119.5 and I have the Wizards leading with both sets of numbers. I have Washington 65-60 in the overall numbers and 67-54 in the home/away numbers so will go ahead and take a shot on the Wizards +1.5 in this one.
Atlanta at Indiana: The Hawks are favored by 3 and the total here is 122 and I have the Pacers leading 67-60 and 60-57, so will go ahead and take Indiana +3 in this one. The Pacers are coming off a pathetic effort against Sacramento and think they’ll bounce back a little bit in this one. This is a one-game road trip for Atlanta, which is coming off a big win over Phoenix last night and then the Hawks have a few off days, so they may not be entirely focused for this one.
Lakers at Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 4.5, while the total is 107. I have The Clippers leading 57-54 and 56-55, so will go ahead and take a shot on the over 107 in this one. The full-game line has dropped a little bit, but hoping for a decent first quarter in this one. The Clippers have been a little strange over the past month, as they seem to get out and have fun in the first quarter and then get serious about things the rest of the game. The Clippers see 61 points in the first quarter and no more than 54.8 the other three quarters. The Lakers are a bit the same, seeing 56.3 points in the first quarter of their games and no more than 53.4 the other three quarters.
Oklahoma City at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 8 with a total of 116.5 and I’m all over the place with this one, as the overall numbers have the Warriors leading 63-52, while the home and numbers have the Thunder leading 54-53, so no interest in playing this one and there just a 1.5-point difference on the under and ideally there’s a 3 to 4 point difference or a little more.
5/5/21
Decent-sized slate of games and a couple of decent ones, as we moved to 83-78 on the season last night. That said, it’s a bit tougher card from a betting perspective, so just one play here.
Sacramento at Indiana: The Pacers are favored by 3.5 and the total is 121.5 and I have thing Kings leading 70-62 and 65-60, so going to go ahead and take the over here. The overall projection is a bit higher than the home and away projection, as the Pacers have shown a little bit more scoring on the road, although the Kings aren’t exactly a great defensive team. Could be a lot of scoring in this one, so will hope to see enough points to sneak over the number.
Washington at Milwaukee: The Bucks are 1.5 with a total of 122.5 and I have Milwaukee leading 63-58 and also have the Wizards leading 66-63, so the numbers are split here. The Bucks could have a little bit of a letdown after knocking off Brooklyn twice, but they can play some defense when they want. If they want to in this one is the big question.
Boston at Orlando: The Celtics are favored by 6.5 with a total of 107.5 and I have Boston leading 53-50 and also 58-50, so another game where the numbers are split on the side and the total. The Celtics have won the last five games between these two, going 4-1 ATS in those games.
Phoenix at Atlanta: Good game here, as the Suns are favored by .5 and the total is 112. I have the Suns leading 61-54 and 60-58, although some of Atlanta’s stats include the games when Young was out. The Hawks are certainly a different team when he’s in the line-up. The Suns pulled off the miracle cover last night, becoming the only team since at least the 2005-06 season to win by 15 or more in overtime. The Suns did tie the Jazz for best record in the league.
Philadelphia at Houston: The 76ers are favored by 7 and the total here is 113.5. As is often the case with Houston games, this one will come down to how much effort the opposition puts into it. The 76ers can win by 20 if they put their mind to it, but how much effort will they expend, as they return home after winning the first two games of their road trip. I have the 76ers leading 65-49 and 63-49, which points to the favorite and the numbers are split on the total.
5/4/21
Snuck in there by a half-point on the Golden State game, one which shouldn’t have been that close, to post a 3-2 night after a couple of disasters. Still just 80-77 on the season, so will stick with the same format of taking myself out of the equation and just following the numbers regardless of the number of games, so have four plays today.
Phoenix at Cleveland: The Suns are favored by 7.5 in the first half and the total just moved up to 107.5 from 107 and I have this one 59-55 for Phoenix and 61-56 for the Suns, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the over here.
Charlotte at Detroit: The Hornets are favored by 3 and the total is 111 and I have the Pistons leading 54-52 and 54-51, although that doesn’t take into account the injury situation for the Pistons, not to mention the Pistons doing a little bit of tanking, as was evident last night. Going to go ahead and take the under here.
Golden State at New Orleans: The Thunder are favored by 1 and the total is down a point from yesterday at 119.5. I have this one at 59-56 for the Thunder and 56-55 for Golden State, so am going to have to take the under once again in this one.
Toronto at LA Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 5.5 and the total is 112.5, while I have the Clippers leading 59-55 and have the Raptors leading 61-60, so will take a stab on the over in this one.
Brooklyn at Milwaukee: A quick rematch in this one and the Bucks are favored by .5 with a total of 123 and I have the Nets leading 61-60 and have the Bucks leading 61-56, so the slightest of leans to the under in this one.
Sacramento at Oklahoma City: The Kings are favored by 2 and the total is 116 and I have the Thunder leading 59-56 and also have the Kings leading 56-55 in this one.
Dallas at Miami: The Heat are favored by 1.5 and the total is 110, while I have the Heat leading 56-53 and also have the Mavs with a 51-50 lead with the home and away numbers.
5/3/21
For about the third time in the past four days I completely botched the NBA card on Sunday, taking the two losers and passing on the Knicks and Suns over, which I mentioned as leans in the article. So right now, I stink, but the numbers have been better than I have. The record dropped to 77-75.
Orlando at Detroit: Both teams are pretty banged up for this one and are sitting some players. The Pistons are favored by .5 with a total of 103.5 and I have Detroit leading 56-49 and 50-47, so split on the total, but both numbers like the Pistons, so will take a shot on Detroit -.5 in this one.
Indiana at Washington: The Wizards are -1.5 and the first-half total is 125, while I have this one 65-65 and 70-60 for the Pacers, so while the number is high going to go ahead and follow the numbers here and take the over 125. If it makes it over the total it won’t be an easy one, just due to the high number.
Golden State at New Orleans: The Pelicans are 1.5 and the total is 120.5, while I have New Orleans leading 60-55 and 56-54, so going to go ahead and take a stab on the under 120.5 in this one.
Philadelphia at Chicago: The 76ers are 2.5 and the total here is 107.5 and I made this one 53-50 for the 76ers and also have it at 50-50, so going to take a shot on the under 107.5 even after the Sixers beat me by half a point last night. The Sixers are 4-7 in totals when playing with no rest.
San Antonio at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 4 with a total of 108 and I have Utah leading 54-53and also have the Spurs leading 59-55, so taking San Antonio +4 for the last play of the day. San Antonio is 7-5 ATS when playing with no rest.
Portland at Atlanta: The Hawks are favored by 1 and the total is 120, while I have the Blazers leading 60-58 and 65-61. The Hawks welcomed back Trae Young and he’ll be going here and he makes a decent difference. Since the Hawks accumulated a lot of the stats that I use without Young, the projections are skewed a little bit, so no need to play this one, especially with five plays already listed.
5/2/21
Definitely a frustrating day on Saturday, as both teams diddled around in the first half and went on to cover the full-game spread, but we were stuck with a pair of losses to fall to 77-73 on the season, which doesn’t get the job done. Will have two plays, although the numbers like quite a few games today.
Philadelphia at San Antonio: The Sixers are favored by 3 with a first-half total of 112.5 and I have Philadelphia leading 53-52 and 54-51, so going to take a stab on the under in this one. Both teams have been playing decent defense for the most part over the past 4-5 weeks, and I think people are reading a little too much into the past couple of games for these two. The 76ers are typically a lower-scoring team away from home and the Spurs have played better defense at home.
Portland at Boston: The Blazers are favored by .5 and the total here is 117.5 and I have Portland leading 55-54 and 57-56, so going to take a stab on the under in this one, as well. The Blazers have played better defense on this road swing and won three straight. Believe they’ll try to continue with that in this one.
New York at Houston: The Knicks are 6.5 with a first-half total of 110.5 and I have New York leading 63-50 and 63-48, so a definite lean to the Knicks in this one.
Phoenix at Oklahoma City: The Suns are favored by 9 with a total of 109.5 and I have Phoenix leading 65-53 with both numbers, so a slight lean to the favorite and the numbers really like the over here. The Suns are coming off a pair of big wins, making this one where motivation is going to be key. The Suns won 140-103 a month ago. Teams who scored 140 or more against an opponent are basically 50% in both sides and totals when they meet again.
Brooklyn at Milwaukee: The Bucks are -.5 and the total here is 124.5, which is a bit on the high side, as I have it 61-61 and 61-54 in favor of the Bucks. Would like to take the under, but the Bucks are 12-2 in totals when the total is 235 or higher this season, with both losses coming by a half-point. For the full-game, I have this one at 240 and 248.
5/1/21
A disappointing split last night, as scoring came to a halt in the second quarter of the Wizards game after 65 points in the first. The Spurs were never in doubt, leading by 23 after the first quarter and 29 at the break. Great comeback by Boston in the full game. We’re 77-71 on the season, so we ended April with a 21-14 record even after our late tailspin that saw us wrap-up the month on a 2-6 run. Seems like a few more injuries than normal today.
Golden State at Houston: The Warriors are favored by 4 in the first half with a total of 118.5 and I have Golden State leading 63-55 and 66-55, so going to take a shot on the Warriors -4 in this one. The Warriors are running out of time to make the playoffs and this is a game they can’t afford to lose, so have to believe they’ll come out hard in this one. The Rockets knocked off a disinterested Milwaukee team last game and that should get Golden State’s attention. The Rockets lost by 17 and by 22 after a win in April, being outscored by 10 points in the first half.
Washington at Dallas: The Mavs are favored by 2.5 with a total of 117.5 and I have the Wizards leading 57-56 and 61-56, so going to take a shot on the Wizards +2.5 in this first half of this one. The Wizards were able to get Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook a bit of rest in last night’s game with the Cavs, with neither playing 32 minutes. Westbook played 31:13 to lead the team, so fatigue may not be as big of a factor in this one. The Mavs thumped the Wizards by more than 20 earlier this season, so will take a shot on the Wizards in this one.
Indiana at Oklahoma City: The Pacers are favored by 5.5 in this one with a first-half total of 118.5 and I have the Pacers leading 67-58 and 76-55, but plenty of injuries to go around in this one, with Indiana showing Brogdon and Sabonis both questionable. Tough one to play due to the injury situation, although the numbers like the over and the Pacers.
Denver at LA Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 2 and the total is 113, while I have Denver leading 60-56 and 59-57. Leonard was updated to questionable for the Clippers, while the numbers have slight leans to the Nuggets and the over.
4/30/21
Fell to 76-70 on the season with a dismal selection on the Pelicans game, so will look for better things tonight. It’s the usual assortment of players out, listed as questionable, etc.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: The Sixers are favored by 5.5 with a total of 112, while I have the 76ers leading 60-51 and 60-49, so the numbers lean to the home favorite a little bit. The Hawks were just waxed by the 76ers two days ago, so in no rush to go against them in this one.
Washington at Cleveland: The Wizards are favored by 3.5 with a first-half total of 115.5 and I have the Wizards leading 67-58 on the home and away numbers and also have this one 59-59, so will go ahead and take a shot on the over in this one.
San Antonio at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 2 with a total of 107.5 and I have the Spurs leading 52-50 and 52-48, so will take a shot on the Spurs +2 in this one. The numbers also like the under in this one.
Portland at Brooklyn: The Blazers are favored by .5 in this one and the total is 122.5, while I have the Nets leading 62-59 and 64-63, although those projections don’t factor Brooklyn’s injury situation into account. Should be a decent game to watch, but one of those I’m in no hurry to get involved with.
Milwaukee at Chicago: The Bucks are favored by .5 in this one and the total is just 107.5 and I thought it would be a little bit higher, especially after the Bucks’ game last night. I have the Bucks leading 55-50 and 52-49, so a definite lean to the under in this one.
Utah at Phoenix: The best game of the night sees the Suns favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 107 and I have Phoenix leading 57-55 and also by a score of 54-53. The Suns are coming off a decent win against the Clippers, so not the greatest of spots from them, although the Jazz are coming off their 154-point effort against the Kings. Teams who won their previous game by 40 or more are 78-78-3 against the spread.
Sacramento at Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 4.5 and the total is 114, while I have each team leading 61-56. Teams who lost by 40 or more points are pretty much .500, so nothing from that perspective comes into play.
4/29/21
We ended the four-game slide last night, but are still just 76-69 for the season, so still have some ground to make up. Tonight is a pretty dismal slate of games, so will see what we can come up with.
Dallas at Detroit: The Mavs are favored by 4.5 and the total is 109 in the first half, as the Pistons are expected to rest some players, including Jerami Grant. I did have Detroit on the radar until I saw they could be sitting about 40 points a game to go along with their other injuries, so just going to stay away from this one.
Brooklyn at Indiana: The Nets are 4.5 with a first-half total of 123.5, while I have Indiana leading 64-62 and also have the Nets leading 61-59. Neither of those takes into consideration Domantas Sabonis will miss the game for the Pacers, so another one with no real interest in getting involved in.
Golden State at Minnesota: The Warriors are favored by 2 with a total of 119 and I have Golden State leading 61-59 and 60-55. The Warriors are coming off a dismal showing against Dallas, so would lean that way, but most likely just going to sit this one out.
Milwaukee at Houston: The Bucks are favored by 7.5 with a total of 115.5 and I have this one 64-50 and 64-47 for the Bucks. Milwaukee can win this one by 30 if they really want, but with a game against the Bulls tomorrow night you have to wonder how motivated they’ll be for this one.
Toronto at Denver: The Nuggets are favored by 1 with a total of 112 and I have Denver leading 63-50 and 67-56. The Raptors are catching Denver at the best possible time, coming off a tough win last night and with games against the Clippers and Lakers on tap. The Raptors thumped Denver pretty good last month in Tampa, so not sure if we’ll see Denver make an effort on defense or try to outscore them. Lean to the over in this one.
New Orleans at Oklahoma City: The Pelicans are favored by 5 with a total of 117 and I have New Orleans leading 64-57 and 71-62, so going to go ahead and take the over 117 here. The Thunder have played some dismal defense at home lately, which is why the home and away projection is as high as it is.
4/28/21
Completely botched last night, making it two nights out of the last four where I tried to be too selective and once again picked the one game from the two that ended up losing. But 1-1 is a lot better than 0-1 and have now dropped four straight after a decent run got us close to where we needed to be. The record here dropped to 75-69 with the loss.
LA Clippers at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 2 in the first half of this one with a total of 113 and I have the Suns leading 60-56 and 65-54, so will go ahead and take a shot on the Suns -2, as Phoenix looks to get its first win against the Clippers this season after dropping the first two games. Both teams are missing players, but Leonard is a bigger blow to the Clippers than any of the Phoenix injuries are.
Los Angeles Lakers at Washington: The Lakers are favored by .5 with a total of 116 and I have each team leading 58-55, so a slight lean to the under in this one. The Lakers are a little tricky right now, as a portion of their stats came when Davis was out and he could have a decent game against the Wizards, so not going to get involved here.
Orlando at Cleveland: The Cavaliers are 1.5 with a total of 102.5 and this is a case where the numbers have Cleveland leading 57-50 and 57-55, but far too many injuries in this game to want to get involved with.
Chicago at New York: The betting public is hammering the Knicks in this one and it’s hard to blame the masses here as New York is favored by 2 with a total of 102.5. I have the Knicks leading 55-48 and 56-50, but not about to go against what has to be some sharp action on the Bulls. New York is getting roughly 80% of the wagers here and don’t like to be on such a public side even though the public won on Minnesota last night.
San Antonio at Miami: This one should be a decent game, and the Heat are favored by 2.5 and the total is 104.5. I have this one 53-53 and also have the Spurs leading 55-54, so a lean to San Antonio but not quite enough of a margin to want to play this one.
4/27/21
The Utah Jazz came out with a repeat performance of their previous game against the Timberwolves, handing us a loss for the second time in three days, as Utah didn’t play in the second quarter and let the Timberwolves rally back after building a big lead. With the loss, fell to 75-68 on the season, so need to get things turned around and we’ll go to one of our favorite plays.
Minnesota at Houston: The Timberwolves are favored by .5 with a first-half total of 119 and I have Minnesota leading 63-60 and 67-64, so going to come in with the over in the first half of this one. Both teams play brutal defense in the first half and think we can see enough offense to get over the hump of this one.
Portland at Indiana: The Blazers are favored by 2.5 over the Pacers with a first-half total of 123 and I have Indiana leading 64-56 and 63-58, although the projections don’t take the Pacers’ injury situation into account.
Milwaukee at Charlotte: The Bucks are favored by 5 with a first-half total of 110.5 and I have Milwaukee leading 56-52 and 52-46. Definite lean to the under in this one, but still not sure if I’ll pull the trigger a little closer to game time.
Oklahoma City at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 7 and the total here is 109.5, while I have the Celtics leading 60-52 and 57-50, so conflicting opinions on the total and the side is pretty much right there at the line.
Brooklyn at Toronto: The Nets are favored by 3 and the total is 117.5, while I have Brooklyn leading 62-59 and 60-56, so another game where we’re a little too close to the number to want to get involved with.
Dallas at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 1 and the total in this one is 114, while I have Golden State leading 57-54 and have the Mavs leading 55-54, so a lean to the under on this one with the numbers. Dallas hasn’t been scoring as much over the past month although it has been working as the Mavs are 10-6 straight-up over the past month. The Mavs are a little banged up for this one, so will likely stay clear.
4/26/21
Have played it safe a few times the last couple of days and it’s come back to bite me in the butt as far as these plays are concerned, as two straight losses knock the record down to 75-67 on the season. Sunday’s play was just a bad one, as the Celtics’ defense made sure it was an easy loss.
Utah at Minnesota: The Jazz let us down two days ago with a huge meltdown in the final 3:30 of the first half, turning a 16-point advantage into a six-point halftime lead and handing us a 1-point loss. The Jazz are favored by 5 with a total of 112 and I have Utah leading 56-47 and 64-54, so going to take another shot on Utah in a quick rematch here. After last game think the Jazz keep the pressure on all game and it’s the biggest difference between my numbers and the lines.
San Antonio at Washington: The Spurs are getting bet hard this morning and San Antonio is favored by 1.5 in the first half with a total of 111.5. There have been 15 home underdogs on a winning streak of at least eight games since 1996 and we have two of them tonight, with the Wizards being one of the two. Washington has gotten itself back in the playoff hunt, while the Spurs are also in the hunt in the West. I have the Spurs leading 56-53 and also have it 57-57.
Phoenix at New York: The Knicks are the other home dog on a winning streak and the Suns are -.5 in the first half, while I have New York leading 55-53 and 53-51, so the numbers lean to the home dog a little bit..
Oklahoma City at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 6.5 with a total of 111.5 and I have Philadelphia leading 63-54 and 61-52, so the slightest of leads to the home favorite.
Atlanta at Detroit: The Hawks are favored by 1.5 with a total of 110.5 and I have the Pistons leading 58-57 and 56-53, so a bit of an edge to the home dog in this one.
Cleveland at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 6 with a total of 110 and I have Toronto leading 58-56 and the Cavs leading 55-52. This one scares me a bit, as the Cavaliers have been getting bet pretty good in the full-game wagering but the line hasn’t moved. I’ve had a tough time predicting the Raptors this season and will just stay clear.
4/25/21
Brutal loss with the Jazz last night, as they were outscored by 10 points over the final 3:30 of the first half and handed us a one-point loss. The Jazz were 0 for 7 from the field down the stretch, missed a one-foot shot at the buzzer and it carried over into the second half, as Minnesota came back and got the win. We dropped to 75-66 on the season after that debacle.
Boston at Charlotte: The Celtics are favored by 8 with a full-game total of 212 at William Hill and I’m going to play the under in this one. I have Boston winning by scores of 106-99 and 104-95, so a little bit of value in the under bases on the numbers, as well as the trends. The Hornets are 2-8 in totals this season when the number is 214.5 or lower, while the Celtics have gone 3-5 when playing to that low of a number. Charlotte is 1-5-1 in totals off a win the last month and 0-6-1 in their last seven home games, while the Celtics are 1-4 off a loss over the past month.
Indiana at Orlando: The Pacers are favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 114 and I have Indiana cruising to a 61-51 lead and a 74-51 halftime lead, but Sabonis is listed as doubtful right now, so will probably stay away for the time being.
Sacramento at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 5 in the first half with a total of 116.5 and I have Golden State leading 64-58 and 61-60, so the numbers like the over in this one. I expected the total to be a little bit higher, as well as the full-game total.
Cleveland at Washington: The Wizards are favored by 4.5 in the first half with a total of 115 and I have Washington leading 61-54 and 54-51, so the home and away numbers like the under.
Memphis at Portland: The Blazers are favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 116 and I have this one 60-60 and 59-58 for the Grizzlies, so a slight lean to the dog in this one.
Milwaukee at Atlanta: The Bucks are favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 112 and I have the Bucks leading 59-58 and 62-54 over the Hawks, who are again banged up. Effort out of Milwaukee is the question in this one after the Bucks knocked off the 76ers twice.
4/24/21
It’s more of the same for Saturday, with some pretty ugly injury reports, as we hit the homestretch for the NBA season. The Rockets and Clippers scored enough for us in the first half last night to move us to 75-65 on the season. Just going to have one play for today, as it’s a bit of a tough card.
Minnesota at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 7 in the first half with a total of 118 and I have Utah leading 66-52 and 73-58, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the Jazz -7 in this one. Even without Mitchell, Utah is capable of putting this one away early and sending a signal to Minnesota for the next game in Minnesota in two days. Utah is 10-5 ATS when favored by double-digits this season and outscore those teams by 10.6 points in the first half. The Wolves are 4-7 ATS when getting 10 or more points and are outscored by 11.5 points in those games. Utah should come out and play hard defense, and the absence of Mitchell should help keep the team focused here in what would otherwise be a spot where the Jazz don’t come to play.
Houston at Denver: The Nuggets are favored by 8.5 with a first half total of 112.5 and I have Denver leading 66-51 and 63-52, but a little hesitant to play Denver here, as they just drilled Houston a week ago by 29 points. Houston is going to be without John Wall, who is resting, so wouldn’t be a shock to see Denver come out and take it to the Rockets, a Denver is 12-5-1 as a favorite off a loss this season. Houston is also going to be without Christian Wood and possibly a few others. Kevin Porter is listed as questionable and if he doesn’t go, this one could get really ugly, so may wait until later and play this one.
Lakers at Dallas: A quick rematch between these two, where Dallas is favored by 1.5 with a total of 110.5. I have Dallas leading 53-49 and LA leading 55-51, but a little hesitant to play the under here, as Davis should see a little more time for the Lakers after coming back last game. Porzingas could miss this one, which could lead to a big game from Davis, so best just to stay away with a few unknowns as of this morning.
Chicago at Miami: The Heat are favored by 2 and the total is just 102, while I have Miami leading 54-52 and 60-54, although Chicago has been playing better defense without LaVine. Miami can play defense when they really want to and they might look to shutdown the Bulls.
4/23/21
Another fairly small slate of NBA games on tap for tonight, with the typical injury reports of players listed as questionable or out, which makes it a little tough. We’re 74-65 on the season entering tonight’s games.
Boston at Brooklyn: The Nets are 2.5 and the total in the first half is 111.5, while I have Brooklyn leading 58-54 and 62-58. Both teams have plenty of players listed as questionable or out, so not going to get involved with this one.
Miami at Atlanta: The Heat are 2.5 with a total of 107.5 and I have Atlanta leading 60-54 and 57-53, although neither one of those projections takes into account the Atlanta injury situation, where Young is out and Capella and Gallinari are both listed as questionable, so not interest in this one.
Cleveland at Charlotte: The Hornets are favored by .5 with a total of 107 and I have Charlotte leading 56-51 and 50-46, so the numbers like the home team a little bit.
Washington at Oklahoma City: The Wizards are 5.5 with a total of 117 and I have Washington leading 65-53 and 67-55, although a little surprised the full-game line hasn’t moved in this one with the Wizards getting close to 75% of the wagers in the game. The Wizards are in a bit of a tough situational spot, as away double-digit favorites against a team with at least six straight wins are 16-24-1 when facing a team that has lost at least three straight games. Still, would probably lean to the favorite if I had to play it, but too tough to call.
LA Clippers at Houston: The Clippers are favored by 6 with a total of 113.5 and I have this one 62-54 and 63-53 so you going to go back to the first-half over with the Rockets. Houston was brutal from the field against the Jazz and the Clippers probably aren’t quite as good defensively as Utah, especially with Leonard missing this one. The Clippers will miss his offense a little, but he’s also one of the better defensive players in the league, so thinking it all washes out. Houston has scored 89 and 91 points the last two games, so believe they’ll look to score a little more at the expense of whatever defense they play.
Memphis at Portland: Should be a decent game, where Portland is favored by .5 with a total of 114.5 and I have the Blazers leading 60-59 and 58-57.
4/23/21
We pulled one out of our butts Wednesday night, getting a field goal with .5 seconds left in the first half to get the win in the Bulls game and now a smaller slate of games for Thursday. With the small slate in the NBA and in MLB, I’ll be leaving at an obscene time in the morning to head to the coast and first-half lines aren’t out yet, so we’ll look at the couple of games that do have overnight full-game lines available, although it’s just a pair of games.
New Orleans at Orlando: The Pelicans are favored by 7.5 with a total of 225, while I have the Pelicans winning but not covering with both. New Orleans is a bit of a strange team when you look at their scoring by quarters, as New Orleans is scoring 60.1 points in the first half of their last seven road games, but only 51.2 in the second half. Defensively, they’re much the same, allowing 63 points in the first half, but just 51.7 in the second half. The third quarter hasn’t been good to the Pelicans, as they allow 30.4 points, but just 21.3 in the fourth. The Magic have been horrible in the first half over the past month, scoring 49.7 points at home and allowing 61.5. As a result I have the Pelicans leading 58-50 and 65-55 at the half.
Charlotte at Chicago: The Bulls were thumped by the Cavaliers Monday night, not playing defense after they had turned in a couple of decent efforts. Chicago is favored by with a total of 211.5 and I have Charlotte winning 104-103 and 107-102, so the numbers like the Hornets and the under in this one. Will go ahead and take the under 211.5 in this one. Chicago is 4-8-1 this season when playing with no rest and 1-8 when the total is less than 220, with the lone over coming against Cleveland on Wednesday. The Hornets have been able to make adjustments after a poor defensive effort against a team. When Charlotte allowed 120 or more points to a team the previous time they met, the Hornets have gone 1-9-1 in totals, going under by an average of 11 points. The Bulls are still without LaVine and aren’t really going to be able to outscore teams, so expecting them to focus on defense a little bit in this one.
4/21/21
Big slate of games in the NBA tonight, where first-half lines were a bit late coming out, so will see what we can come up, as we have the usual assortment of players being questionable or out. We’re 72-65 on the season entering tonight’s games.
Miami at San Antonio: Decent matchup between two teams battling for the playoffs and the Spurs are favored by .5 with a first-half total of 110 and I have the Spurs leading 57-48 and 55-49, so the numbers like San Antonio and the under here. The Spurs have held their last two foes to under 95 points and teams who have held their last two foes to fewer than 100 points have gone 30-18-2 in totals their next game, while teams who held their last two foes to fewer than 95 points are 11-5 in totals.
Chicago at Cleveland: The Bulls are favored by 1.5 in the first half and the total is 103, while I have Cleveland leading 54-53, but also have the Bulls leading 64-59 based on Cleveland’s dismal home defense the past five home games, so am going to take a shot on the over 103 here, although it will likely be pretty ugly. The Bulls also fall into the trend above of being a team who has allowed fewer than 100 points their last two games, with one of those teams being the Cavaliers just two games ago, so expecting a little better offensive effort from Cleveland. The teams combined for just 16 free throw attempts and that’s something we talk about from time to time, which is the effect of foul shots on totals. In games where both teams shoot 10 or fewer foul shots, totals are 4-43, so it was no surprise to see that last one end up with so few points.
Golden State at Washington: The Warriors are favored by .5 and the total is 121.5, which is pretty much where it should be, as I have the Wizards leading 63-57 and 62-59, so the numbers like Washington a little bit. It’s most likely too little, too late for Washington, but the Wizards are still battling for the playoffs. Home dogs who have won five or more games in a row are 52-50-2, so there really hasn’t been any sort of an edge one way or the other in that regard.
4/20/21
Smaller slate of games in the NBA tonight, with just five games on the schedule. A couple of decent games, but nothing that makes you really want to watch. We moved to 71-65 on the season last night.
Minnesota at Sacramento: The Kings are favored by 1.5 in the first half with a total of 121.5 and I have the Kings leading66-59 and 66-63, so am going to go ahead and take the over in this one. These two just played a 116-106 game in Minnesota two weeks ago, with Minnesota coming out on top. Interesting to note that the total in that one was 237 for the full game and this one is a couple of points higher despite a relatively low-scoring game between the two teams. The halftime score was 55-55.
Charlotte at New York: The Knicks are favored by 3 and the total is 106, while I have New York leading 52-47 and 52-49, but a little leery to pull the trigger on the under here, as the Knicks have scored 111 or more points in each of their last four games, and they’ve been winning, so they may continue to see higher-scoring games until they drop one. The Knicks are just 8-13 in totals for the season after scoring 110 or more points, but their last three have gone over the total. Most likely will just stay away from this one.
Orlando at Atlanta: Wide range of numbers in this one, where the Hawks are favored by 7 with a total of 109 and I have Atlanta leading 60-49 and also 55-53.
Brooklyn at New Orleans: The Pelicans are favored by 1.5 with a first-half total of 118.5 and I have New Orleans leading 63-59, but also 59-52 with the home and away numbers, so the numbers like the Pelicans a little bit in this one.
Clippers at Portland: The Clippers are favored by 4 with a total of 114 in the first half of this one, while I have Los Angeles leading 60-57 and Portland leading 58-57, so a slight lean to the home underdog in this one.
4/19/21
A decent-sized slate of games for Monday, but a bit tough on the betting aspect, as we’ll have just one play tonight. It’s the usual assortment of questionable players, along with a few players who have already been ruled out. We’re 70-65 entering tonight’s games.
Utah at LA Lakers: The Jazz are favored by 3.5 in the first half with a total of 105.5, while I have the Jazz leading 55-49 and 49-46 using the home and away numbers, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the under 105.5. The Jazz have gone under the number all three games when the full-game total is less than 215, scoring 50.3 points and allowing 46.4, while the Lakers are 4-8 in full-game totals, scoring 51.9 and allowing 54.1. Utah has been a different team on the road over the past month, as Utah scores 51.4 points and allows 51.4, compared to scoring 58.3 and allowing 52.1 at home. The Lakers are allowing 53.7 first-half points over the last month, with no change at home or on the road, while Los Angeles is scoring 1.4 fewer points in the first half at home.
Houston at Miami: The Heat are favored by 4.5 with a total of 111.5 and I have Miami leading 59-56 and 60-58, so it’s the largest difference of any game from my projections, but there are a couple trends pointing to the under that are going to keep me away from the usual first-half over with the Rockets. The Heat are 11-17 in totals after a win this season, while the Rockets are 5-9 after a victory. Miami is 0-4 in totals after a win as an underdog this year, so just going to stay away from this one.
Phoenix at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 1 in the first half, while the total is 114.5, which seems to be a little low considering the full-game total is 233.5. I have the Suns leading 58-57 and 62-58, but it’s getting tougher to tell which Milwaukee team is going to show up on any given night. The Bucks clearly don’t care much about the regular season, as they’ve lost five times as a favorite of 7 or more points and they’re not close losses, either, with the Bucks being outscored 125.8-114.8 over those games. Would like to take the Suns here, but if the Bucks come out ready to play, it could go either way.
4/18/21
A bit of a tough slate for Sunday, where we still have key players listed as questionable, with names like Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, and John Collins with their status up in the air. We’re 69-65 on the season and will just have one play for tonight.
Sacramento at Dallas: The Mavs are favored by 5 in the first half with a total of 117.5 and I have Dallas leading 61-53 and also have it 56-56, so no play on the side here. The numbers do like the first-half under a little bit, but the Mavs are one of those teams like the Utah Jazz who go over the total a high percentage of the time when it’s predicted to be a high-scoring game. When the total is 230 or higher, the Mavs have gone 8-2, so no real rush to take the first-half under in this one.
Minnesota at Clippers: LA is favored by 6 in the first half with a total of 117, while the Clippers are favored by 10 for the full game with a total of 231.5. This one is basically a trend play on the Clippers, but wrestling with the full-game or first-half wager. Minnesota comes into this one off a 119-111 victory over the Heat at home, which wrapped up a four-game home stand that saw the Wolves win the first and the last games. The Timberwolves are 1-13 straight-up and 3-10-1 after a victory this season, including a 2-7 ATS mark on the road. The Wolves are 4-6 ATS when getting double-digits and 7-14-1 against the spread after holding a team to fewer than 115 points. The Clippers are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss and 4-1 ATS if favored by double-digits. The Clippers travel to Portland after this one game at home, but think they’ll be a little more focused after losing to the 76ers. Going to take a shot on the Clippers for the first half and lay the 6 points, as I have them leading 65-53 and 67-55, although that doesn’t take into account Leonard may sit this one out. They did trail at Minnesota last game at the half, so think the Clippers will come out a little strong.
Houston at Orlando: No first-half over here, as the Magic are favored by .5 with a total of 112 and I have the Rockets leading 56-55 and 64-54, but in no rush to back the Rockets in one of the uglier games on the schedule this month.
4/17/21
We had to settle for the split last night, as a technical foul with 17 seconds left and 3-pointer at the buzzer sent to us a one-point loss on the Mavs game, which pretty much sums up the season so far, as we’re 67-65 entering today’s games.
Utah at Lakers: A bit of an early start in this one, the Jazz are favored by 2 in the first half and the total has come down to 104.5 after opening at 105 and then getting bet up slightly to 105.5. I have Utah leading 53-50 with one method and the home and away numbers have it 46-45, so the numbers like the under in this one.
Detroit at Washington: The Wizards have moved from -1.5 to -2 and the total has held at 115. I have Washington leading 60-54 and 62-54, so will go ahead and take a shot on the Wizards in this one. Both teams are playing decent in April, with Detroit going 4-5 and the Wizards 5-4. The Pistons are 2-14 straight-up and 3-12-1 ATS after a win this season, getting outscored by 3.9 points in the first half.
Golden State at Boston: The Celtics are 2.5 with a total of 116 and I have Golden State leading 56-54 and 58-50, so will take a shot on the Warriors even though the price is a little cheaper than I was anticipating, as I expected a 3 or 3.5. Boston did win 111-107 at Golden State in February and the Warriors have been decent when avenging a home loss, going 12-7 ATS and straight-up. The Celtics are home after a 3-0 road trip, which included a win at Denver, so maybe not the greatest of spots.
San Antonio at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 5.5 with a total of 111 and I have Phoenix leading 61-50 and 60-48, so the numbers like the home favorite. This is the last game of an extended homestand for the Suns, who have away games at Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Boston and Brooklyn up next, so not so sure they’ll be entirely focused on this one.
Memphis at Milwaukee: The Bucks are 4.5 and the total is 116.5 and I have Milwaukee leading 61-52 and 64-59. The Bucks won by a single point in Memphis, so a bit of a revenge game, although the Grizzlies won on the road last night, while the Bucks were idle. Milwaukee does have Phoenix and two games against the 76ers up next, so not so sure I’d want to lay points in this spot.
4/16/21
Another big slate of games in the NBA for Friday, where we’re 66-64, unable to really get anything going for more than a day or two. The usual assortment of players listed as questionable this morning.
LA Clippers at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 1 with a first-half total of 112 and I have Philadelphia leading 54-53 and 54-52, so the numbers lean to the under here. The Clippers ran past the Sixers 122-112 earlier this season in Los Angeles and have to think the 76ers will try to avoid a repeat of that type of game, although Philadelphia is 8-5 in totals this season after allowing at least 120 points to a team, while the Clippers have gone 15-9-1 in totals against teams they scored 120 against the previous time they met. With the stats and trends in direct opposite situations, will just stay clear of this one.
Denver at Houston: Yes, you knew this one was likely coming, as the Nuggets are down to 4.5 and the total is at 115, while I have the Nuggets leading 64-54 and 65-55, so will go ahead and take the over 115 in the first half. The Nuggets can score, while the Rockets can make things interesting at times, as they are more than capable of going a couple of minutes without scoring. But many times the Rockets make up for that by not playing defense, so like the other Houston first-half overs we’ve had, it won’t be easy and we’ll likely be sweating it until the bitter end, but going to count on Denver getting out and having a bit of fun in this one and letting up on the defense a bit.
New York Knicks at Dallas: The Mavs are favored by 3 with a total of 107 and I have this one 50-49 and 53-48, so going to take a shot on the under in the first half of this one. These two teams played an ugly 99-86 a couple of weeks ago and both teams have shown under tendencies when playing a team who held them below 100 points last game. The Mavs are 1-4 in totals and the Knicks have gone 5-8. New York has gone just 9-19-1 in totals on the road this season, while the Mavericks are 9-15-1 in totals at home this year.
4/15/21
Rough loss with the 76ers last night, as we fall to 65-64 on the season, as the Philadelphia game turned out to be the difference between a winning night and a losing one, but the Sixers blew a 22-point lead in the fourth quarter to cost us. Tough slate of games today, where players are pretty much questionable in three of the four games.
Milwaukee vs. Atlanta: The Bucks are favored by 4 with a total of 230 and by 2 with a first-half total of 113.5. Young is listed as questionable right now, as is Gallinari, so tough to pull the trigger on this one until something more definitive is known about both players. I have the Hawks winning the full game with both numbers, while the first-half numbers are split, with each team predicted to be leading by 2, but can’t do anything here at the moment.
Golden State at Cleveland: The Warriors are favored by 7.5 and the total is 224, while I have Cleveland winning the game with both numbers, although they don’t take into account the injury to Sexton, who is yet another player listed as questionable. When a team struggles to score like the Cavs you really can’t afford to lose 24 points. The Warriors are -4 and 114 in the first half, while I have the Cavs leading in both with the numbers split on the total.
Boston at Lakers: The Celtics are up to 6 and the total on the game is 212 and it’s another case of the numbers having the injured underdog winning the game and both the first-half and full-game numbers like the over. The Lakers are playing good so far this month, going 7-4 straight up and have a scoring margin of +7.1. LA did win in Boston earlier this season.
Sacramento at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 12.5 and the total is 234, while I have Phoenix winning 121-107 and 125-108, so the full-game numbers lean to the Suns a little bit. Phoenix is favored by 7 in the first half with a total of 119.5 and I have the Suns leading by 12 and by 15. This is the highest total the Suns have seen all season, but after playing solid defense against the Heat, the Suns might want to get out and have a little fun and play a wide-open type of game against the Kings. Going to take a shot on the first half over, not because I really like the play, but simply because it’s about the only game where you know who should be playing.
4/14/21
Kind of a big stretch here, as would like to pick-up a few games and improve on the 64-62 record, although another day with a fair number of question marks regarding players and if they’ll be playing or not. Pretty big slate of games for tonight and we’ll have three plays, so we’ll get right to it.
Brooklyn at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 7 in this one and it should probably be higher given the Nets and their injury situation, with James Harden out, and Irving and Durant both listed as questionable. I have the 76ers winning by 7 and by 8 points and that’s not accounting for any of the injuries, so going to go ahead and take the 76ers. With the teams tied in the standings it’s obviously a big game, but not the end of the world if the Nets fall behind by a game. The home team has won both games by double digits this season.
San Antonio at Toronto: The Spurs are favored by 4 on the road in this one, which lets you know something is up with the Raptors and it’s Lowry, who could be given the night off here. After last night’s loss to the Hawks in a hard-fought game, the Raptors are now seven games behind the Knicks for the No. 8 spot, so the season is essentially all over and done with. The Pacers and Bulls are also in front of Toronto, so wouldn’t really be surprising to see the Raptors fall apart here down the stretch. Going to take San Antonio, who is just one game behind the Grizzlies for the No. 8 spot in the West, as the Spurs still have a lot to play for and the Raptors are just 3-9 ATS in back-to-back games this season.
Indiana at Houston: The Pacers are favored by 3 with a first-half total of 118.5 in this one and am going to take another shot on the Rockets over in the first half, although they’ve let me down a few times in the past couple of weeks. I have this one at 123 and 126, with the Pacers also being a higher-scoring team in the first half. Indiana sees a little more scoring in the first half of their road games, so will hope to see a lack of defense from both squads here.
4/13/21
Coming off a 1-2 night, as I’ve been floundering within a few games of .500 either way for the past three weeks or so, unable to get anything resembling a hot streak going for any extended period of time. Many times it’s a good run over the course of a week or two that makes of breaks the season. We’re sitting at 63-62 after last night. The Knicks loss was a tough one, with the teams scoring 20 points in the final 2:32 of the half to hand us a 2.5-point loss, while the Jazz again tried to outscore the Wizards and were handed a predictable loss, as Utah isn’t that kind of team.
Miami at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 3.5 and the total here is 216. I have Phoenix winning 111-100 and 103-96, so going to go ahead and take the under in this one. The Heat have been playing strong defense lately, sacrificing offense a little bit and the Suns can play defense when they want to. Phoenix cruised to the win over Houston last night in a game that wasn’t anywhere near as close as the final score looked and was actually a bad beat for those backing Phoenix for the full game, as the Suns were already looking ahead to this one by the time the second half rolled around.
Atlanta at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 3 with a total of 223.5 and I have the Hawks winning with both methods, although Atlanta is a little banged up. Toronto has been a hard team to figure out and is probably a little better than they looked at times during the season.
Clippers at Indiana: The Clippers are favored by 2.5 with a total of 229.5 and think the total might be a little on the high side, as I have the Clippers winning 117-111 and 112-108. The 112-108 prediction is using the home and away averages and the Clippers have been a little more defensive minded on the road, while the Pacers have also seen slightly lower-scoring games when they’re at home over the past six weeks.
Lakers at Charlotte: The Hornets are favored by 1.5 with a total of 208.5 and I have this one at 104-104 and have the Hornets winning 105-104, so staying away from this one.
4/12/21
Broke our two-game losing streak last night, when the Spurs and Mavs went under the first-half total by a point, although we’re still just 62-60 on the season after a little bad run.
Lakers at New York Knicks: The Knicks are favored by .5 in the first half with a total of 104.5, while I have the Knicks leading 50-49 with both of the first-half numbers I run, so going to take a shot on the under in this one, as the Lakers have been playing decent defense lately.
Philadelphia at Dallas: The 76ers are favored by 1 and the total is 111.5 and I have the Mavs leading 54-53 and then have the 76ers leading 55-50 with the other method. Dallas has seen some low-scoring games when playing back-to-back nights, so will take a shot on the under on this one, as well.
Washington at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 7 with a first-half total of 119 and I have this one at 113 with both methods that I used, so the numbers definitely like the under here. A little worried about Utah’s totals record in games where the number is at least 230, as the Jazz have gone 8-1 when the total is that high. One of those games was a 131-122 loss at Washington and the Jazz have gone 4-8 in totals when looking to avenge a loss, so will go ahead and take the under in this one, as well for the final play of the night.
Chicago at Memphis: Memphis is favored by 1 with a total of 112.5 and I have the Bulls leading 58-57 and 61-54, so the numbers lean to the Bulls a little bit here, with an additional lean on the over.
Denver at Golden State: The Nuggets are 1.5 in the first half and the total is 114.5 and I have Denver leading 59-55 and 61-56, so a bit of a lean to Denver, but hard to tell how the Nuggets will come out after Sunday’s debacle against Boston.
Houston at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 7.5 and I have them leading 65-51 with both numbers, which puts the number .5 points under the first-half total of 116.5. While the numbers favor the Suns they do have a tougher game against the Heat tomorrow night, so just staying clear of this one.
4/11/21
Have dropped two straight after stringing together a few in a row to fall down to 61-60 for the season. A lot of games today, but also a lot of players listed as questionable or doubtful.
San Antonio at Dallas: The Mavs are favored by 3 with a first-half total of 108 and I have this one 51-50 and 55-51 in favor of Dallas, so going to go ahead and play the under 108 in this one. The Mavs have been more defensive oriented at home the past six weeks and the Spurs are coming off some dismal defensive effort, which is a bit surprising as Popovich typically gets the Spurs to rebound after allowing 120 points, where they’re 5-10 in totals on the season, but have lost two of the last three.
Milwaukee at Orlando: The Bucks are favored by 4.5 with a first-half total of 110, which is definitely reflecting Giannis Antetokounmpo missing the game for the Bucks. I have the Bucks leading by 6 and by 10 at the half, but the injury situation will likely just keep me off of that one.
Chicago at Minnesota: The Bulls are favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 113.5 and I have Chicago leading 61-57 and also 60-52, so the numbers like the Bulls a little bit and it’s hard to argue against them in this spot.
Boston at Denver: The Nuggets are favored by 3.5 and the total in the first half is down to 108.5 with the injury situation for both teams playing a big factor in that. Right now Tatum, Brown and Murray for the Nuggets are all listed as questionable, so no point getting down on the game unless the injury situation becomes a little more etched in stone.
Miami at Portland: The Heat are favored by .5 in the first half with a total of 113, which seems like it might be a little on the high side given the way the Heat have been winning. The Blazers did win in Miami a couple of weeks ago, so a revenge game for the Heat, although they’ve been pretty much 50-50 in that role this season. Would love to take Portland here, but the situation really favors Miami, who has had a couple of days off, while the Blazers played last night. I have Portland leading 58-54 and 50-49, but will just sit this one out.
4/10/21
Fell to 61-59 last night, as the Knicks reversed how they had been playing and used a big second half to force overtime and then take the win. Somewhat small slate for Saturday.
Houston at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 5 and the total is 115.5 in the first half and I have Golden State leading 60-57 and the Rockets leading by a score of 61-58, so going to go ahead and take the first-half over of this one. A little miffed that I didn’t take it the Rockets over in the first half last night, but think they’ll fare a little better in the second quarter than the 10 points they managed to put up last night.
Toronto at Cleveland: The Raptors are favored by 1.5 in the first half of this one and I have the Cavs leading with both sets of numbers, but haven’t been able to get a read on Toronto all season, as they play a little better than I expect a lot of times and much worse than I expect at others. Just going to stay away from this one, although I still lean towards the home dog, but won’t be playing it.
Washington at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 7 in the first half with a total of 116 and I have Phoenix leading by double-digits with both sets of numbers, although it’s a question of how focused the Suns are going to be for this one. The suns are coming off games against the Jazz and Clippers, so how motivated are they going to be for this one?
Sacramento at Utah: The Jazz are also favored by 7 over the Kings in the first half and I have the Jazz leading 61-52 and 64-51, with the larger margin the home and away stats. No real interest in playing this one but think the favorite is probably the way to go if you wager on it.
Lakers at Nets: The Nets are favored by 6.5 and I have Brooklyn leading by 2 and by 4, although some of the Lakers’ stats come from James was still in the line-up. The Lakers have done a good job playing defense without their big two and have gone 4-3 straight-up over their last seven games, although the quality of their wins leaves a bit to be desired.
4/9/21
We moved to 61-58 on the season last night, which is a little better, but still short of where we need to be, so will see what we can come up with for Friday.
Indiana at Orlando: The Pacers are favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 112.5 and I have the Pacers leading 57-55 with overall scoring and 64-57 when using home and away unders, so nothing really happening here.
Memphis at New York: The Grizzlies are favored by .5 in the first half with a total of 105.5 and I have the Knicks leading 57-49 and 54-48, so going to take a shot on the Knicks in this one. The Grizzlies have been a solid road team this season and have gone 7-5 straight-up away from home since the beginning of last month, but are still being outscored by 2.6 points in the first half of those games. Memphis has turned it on in the third quarter, where they have seen a 33.1-28.6 scoring edge. The Knicks are 5-4 straight-up at home since the beginning of March, but do have a 3.6 scoring margin at the half, only to be outscored by 2.5 points in the second half. This is one of those games where I have full game projections of 108-108 and New York 107-106, so the numbers like New York in the first half and the Grizzlies in the second half.
Washington at Golden State: The full-game total is high here at 238.5 and the first-half total is 121.5, while I have it 59-59 and 62-59 in favor of the Wizards, so nothing really happening here. Games with high totals of 238.5 or more have gone 21-7-1 this season, so no real interest in looking at the under of this one.
Houston at Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 7 in the first half with a total of 112.5 and I have LA leading 64-55 and 60-58, as the Rockets haven’t been bad on the road the last five weeks, as Houston is 4-4 ATS and actually holds a scoring edge over their foes before things fall apart in the second half. Was looking at the usual Houston over first half wager, but the Rockets are a little short-handed with Wall and House both out and the Clippers have played more defensive games when playing back-to-back situations, going just 3-6 in totals, holding the opposition to 50.6 first-half points.
4/8/21
A somewhat small slate of games in the NBA tonight, where we’re still spinning the wheels a little bit with a 60-58 record. Tonight’s more of the same in regards to injuries, players sitting, so a bit of a tough card from a handicapping perspective. Will look at a few games from a first-half perspective, although our play tonight will be a full-game situational play.
Milwaukee at Dallas: The Mavericks are favored by 1 and the total has dropped a couple of points to 226.5. The Mavs were upset by Houston last night and it was admittedly a tough spot for Dallas, who was coming off a win against the Jazz and had tonight’s game against Milwaukee on tap, but thought Dallas might be a little more focused after getting drilled by the Rockets the previous time they played. But that wasn’t the case, as Dallas failed to show up offensively and could just muster 93 points against a hapless Houston team. But Dallas has been guilty of looking ahead a little bit at times this year and usually make the most of it. Dallas is 7-2 ATS when favored by 5 or fewer points when they lost their previous game and 5-1 ATS when they were favored in the previous game. Over the years, home favorites who lost the previous night as an away favorite of 8 or more points are 24-5 straight-up and 20-9 ATS, so I’ll take a shot on Dallas -1 in this one.
Phoenix at Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 109 and I have Phoenix leading 57-55 and 56-54, but not real anxious to play the Suns here after last night’s game. The Clippers did win in Phoenix in the lone meeting between the two this season, although that was back in January. The Suns have won seven straight and team who won at least seven in a row are just 81-106-5 (43.3%) when made away underdogs.
Portland at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 3 with a total of 117 in the first half and I have the Jazz cruising to a 62-51 halftime lead and 65-51, but it’s the third game in four nights for the Jazz against a Portland team who has played just once since April 4, so the Blazers get an edge there. We looked at how home favorites do after a loss as a big road favorite the previous night in the Dallas game and here we have the Jazz, who were a small road favorite losing and are now a favorite at home. Home favorites who lost the previous night as a 4-point or less away favorite are just 81-101-8 (44.5%) so will stay clear.
4/7/21
Decent slate of games on tap for Wednesday, where we moved to 59-58 on the season last night. While the Jazz and Phoenix makes it a decent schedule for fans, it’s a bit of a tough betting schedule, as most of the numbers are pretty close to my projections.
Utah at Phoenix: The Jazz are favored by .5 in the first half with a total of 111 and I have Phoenix leading 55-52 and 59-50, so going to go ahead and take the Suns +.5 in the first half for the lone play of the day. The Suns have won the last two meetings between the two teams, so a revenge game for the Jazz, and Utah has been pretty decent in the spot this season, going 10-1 straight-up and 7-4 ATS. The one loss was against the Suns, although that’s minimized a little bit by the Jazz winning the previous eight games before Phoenix reeled off back-to-back wins. The Jazz are 9-2 straight-up and 5-6 ATS after a loss this season and this is a bit of a tough stretch for Utah, who is coming off a loss at Dallas and have a home game with Portland tomorrow. The Suns are coming off a lackluster win at Houston and have the Clippers in Los Angeles tomorrow night. This is the fourth game in six nights for the Jazz.
Dallas at Houston: This is the other game I gave serious thought to playing, as the Mavs are favored by 7 with a total of 113 in the first half and I have Dallas leading 60-56 and 66-53, so gave some thought to the over, as we’ve been on the Rockets first-half over a few times. Houston upset Dallas the last time the teams played and it was pretty ugly, as the Rockets scored 133 points, which is their second-highest output of the season. The Mavs are playing pretty solid defense lately and may want to make a bit of a point and shut Houston down, although with the Bucks at home tomorrow night, they may try to take it Houston early and get the starters some rest. Would lean to the over if I had to play it, but a few too many question marks in this one.
Minnesota at Indiana: The Pacers are just -.5 in this one, with Sabonis and Brogdon both officially listed as questionable. The total in the first half is 117 and I have it Indiana 63-56 and 61-59, but no interest until the status of the Pacers is set in stone a little bit better.
4/6/21
Back to .500 after a 2-0 night, but 58-58 isn’t getting the job done. Have been fluctuating between a game or two over and below the 50-50 mark for the past few weeks, so hopefully can can pick it up a bit now that college hoops are over and can concentrate on the NBA and MLB only for a few months until the WNBA and the Canadian Football League , which will begin June 10, get going. But a bit of a tough card tonight.
Memphis at Miami: The Heat are favored by 2.5 with a first-half total of 106.5 and I have Miami leading 55-52 and 57-56 with the home and away numbers since March 1, so will go ahead and take a shot on the over 106.5. The Heat have seen their scoring go up a little bit since returning home and the number is pretty low.
Chicago at Indiana: The Bulls are favored by .5 in this one and we’ve seen the total climb slightly to 112. I have the Pacers leading 59-56 with one method, but also have Chicago leading 56-55 with the other.
Philadelphia at Boston: The 76ers are -.5 and the total has climbed to 113.5 for the first half of this one and I have it 55-55 and 56-55 for the 76ers, so nothing happening in this one.
New Orleans at Atlanta: Both teams are a little banged up in this one, although the Pelicans’ stars are listed as questionable. The Hawks are -1.5 and the total has bounced around a little bit and is now at 115.5. I have the Hawks leading 60-53 and 59-51, but want no part of this one due to the injury situation.
Lakers at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 1 in the first half of this one and the total is at 106.5, while I have Toronto leading 56-55 and 58-52, but a tough game to play due to the injury situation on both sides of the ball.
Milwaukee at Golden State: The Bucks are favored by 3.5 with a first-half total of 116.5 in this one and I have the Bucks leading 62-55, but also have the Warriors with a 55-54 halftime advantage with the other method, so will be staying away here.
Portland at Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 3 with a first-half total of 117 and I have the Clippers leading 62-56 and 59-56, so a little too close to the lines.
4/5/21
Floundering around in the NBA right now, as injuries and resting players are making statistics pretty tough to gain any sort of edge. So, can only trudge forward and see how things play out. Will look at a couple of first-half plays tonight and look to improve on the 56-58 record.
Phoenix at Houston: The Suns are favored by 8.5 in the first half and the total is 109.5. I made this one 63-54 for Phoenix, so will go ahead and take the over 109.5. The Rockets get progressively worse on offense as the game goes on, with Houston averaging 29.1 points in the first quarter and 28.2 in the second in March and April games. Things begin to go downhill in a hurry from there, with the Rockets scoring 25.4 points in the third quarter and 24.9 in the fourth. The Suns score 29.6 in both the first and second quarter, before tailing off a little bit in the second half.
Cleveland at San Antonio: The Spurs are favored by 5 with a total of 110.5 and I have this one 54-49, so will play the under in this one. The Spurs have allowed more than 130 points in each of their last two games, so expecting them to play a little defense in this one, which should be easier against the Cavs than it was against the Pacers or the Hawks. San Antonio is 3-6 in totals after seeing two straight overs this season.
Sacramento at Minnesota: The Kings are favored by 2 with a total of 119 and I made this one 65-60, so the numbers like the over a little bit in this one.
Washington at Toronto: The Raptors are -2 and 115.5 and I have this one at 64-59 in favor of Toronto, but lots of plays on the injury report of this one and can’t do much of anything with this game.
Utah at Dallas: The best game of the evening sees Utah favored by 2 with a total of 110 and I have the Jazz leading 55-52. The Mavs are returning home after a lengthy road trip and teams are 30-37 ATS this season when they return home after playing at least their last four on the road.
4/4/21
A split on the two NBA games last night, as too many 3-pointers did us in for the under in the Heat game, while San Antonio sailed over the total, so still a game under .500 at 56-57. Lots of players either out or listed as questionable today, which makes it tough
Brooklyn at Chicago: The Nets are favored by 2.5 and the total is 225.5, although Harden has already been ruled out and Durant is still sidelines, which makes by projections of Brooklyn by 9 and 11 pretty much worthless. Hard to take a stand on the game due to the Nets’ injury situation.
Lakers at Clippers: Another game with the Lakers being short-handed, as the Clippers are 10.5 and the total is 212. The line may still be a little on the high side, but no real interest in getting involved with this one.
Charlotte at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 9, as Hayward is going to be out for a while, which is a big blow to the Hornets, especially with Monk sidelines for a bit, as Charlotte’s depth will be put to the test. These two teams haven’t played since 2019, but just going to stay away here, as well.
Memphis at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 3.5 with a total of 226.5 and I have Philly winning 118-105 and 125-110, so going to take the home favorite in this one. The Sixers are tied with the Nets for the best record in the East and have a decent chance to move in front with Brooklyn a little banged up. Philadelphia hits the road for four games after this one, so an important game for the team.
Golden State at Atlanta: The Warriors are favored in this one, with Curry returning and the Hawks being a little banged up. Dating back to 1996, favorites who lost their last game by 40 or more points are 24-15, including a 9-2 mark when favored on the road. The Hawks are the better team, but with two or three key players out, just staying away from this one.
New Orleans at Houston: The Pelicans are 5.5 in this one and the total is 222.5, while I have New Orleans winning by 9 and 11, with a split on the total. John Wall is out for Houston, while the Pelicans have a number of players on the injury list. Just staying away.
4/3/21
We fell to 55-56 on the season when the Suns scored 140 points in their thumping of the Thunder on a night that saw a couple of complete beatdowns, with the Warriors being the other. Decent-sized slate of games for today, although no really good matchups that make you want to watch.
Dallas at Washington: The Mavs are favored by 6 and the total is 228, while I have Dallas winning 120-108 and 127-113, as the Mavs have been more impressive as of late on the road. Would love to take Dallas here, but with the Jazz on tap, it’s logical for this to be a bit of a flat spot, coming off a win last night and a return home awaits after this one. Dallas is 3-1 on their road trip, so they’ve already guaranteed a winning trip.
Cleveland at Miami: The Heat are favored by 12 and the total has climbed to 209, as Goran Dragic is listed as probably for Miami. We did see 211 points here a couple of weeks ago, which could be one reason why the total is climbing, but going to go against the gran and take the under here, as I have it 102-95 and 103-96 for Miami.
Minnesota at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 12 with a total of 226 and I have Philadelphia winning 121-102 and 126-106, so both numbers like the home favorite and are split on the total.
New York at Detroit: The Knicks are down to 1.5 and the total is just 201.5, making it just the second game this season to have a total below 202. Games with totals of 210 or less have been going under at an alarming rate, so just staying clear of this one, as I have it 103-101 and 104-101 in favor of the Pistons.
Indiana at San Antonio: The Spurs are favored by 4.5, which seems a bit high, and the total is 219 and I have this one 112-112 and 116-114 in favor of Indiana. The Pacers have been seeing more points in their away games as of late and Sabonis is listed as questionable, but believe he’ll be going in this one. Brogdon is also listed as questionable for the Pacers, but believe the break their scoring slump in this one and will go ahead and take the over 219.
4/2/21
We won last night to get back to 55-55 on the season, so still plenty of work to do to get the record back to where it needs to be. A number of games today and a bit of a tough schedule, so just one play.
Oklahoma City at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 13 and the total here is 220, while I have the Suns winning 115-96 and 114-97, so going to take a shot on the under in this one, with the Suns going 2-5 in totals when favored by 9 or more points this season.
Charlotte at Indiana: The Pacers are favored by 4 and the total is 219.5, while I have the Pacers winning 113-109 and 111-106, so pretty close to both the line and the total in this one.
Minnesota at Memphis: Memphis is favored by 6.5 and the total is 230.5 and I have the Grizzlies winning 121-111 and 120-102, so another game without a whole lot happening.
Milwaukee at Portland: The Bucks have moved from 3.5 down to 2.5 and the total is at 238. I have Milwaukee winning 122-120 and 124-119, so the numbers lean to the over a little bit and are split on the side.
Houston at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 11.5 with a total of 223.5 and I have the Celtics winning 123-109 and 120-113, so the numbers like the over. The Celtics drubbed Houston 134-107 last month, so a little surprised to see the total as low as it is since it was 224 last time. A lean that way, but no real interest in needing the Rockets to score some points.
Dallas at New York: The Mavs are favored by 6 and the total has dropped down to 212.5. I have Dallas winning by 3 with both methods, 104-101 and 109-106, so the numbers lean to the Knicks slightly and are split on the total.
Golden State at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 2.5 and the total is 224.5 and it’s hard to know what to make of this Toronto team. The Raptors have gone 2-16 straight-up and 5-12-1 against the spread since the beginning of March, yet they’re still getting a fair amount of respect from the oddsmakers. I have Toronto winning and covering with both methods, 116-110 and 119-109, but can’t play Toronto right now.
4/1/21
We were able to stop the bleeding last night, but just 54-55 on the season, so still have some work to do to get back on track. March has come to a close and favorites were 107-92-2 (53.8%) for the month, while totals were 90-106-5 (45.9%). Seven games on the schedule for today, but a bit of a tough day with a fair number of key players either listed as out or questionable, as is the case with James Harden for the Nets at the time of this writing.
Washington at Detroit: The Wizards are favored by 3 and the total on this one is 224 and I have the Pistons winning by five with both methods, but Detroit has a lot of players listed as questionable right now, so lean to Detroit but most likely will stay clear for the time being.
Golden State at Miami: The Heat are favored by 2.5 and the total is 219, while I have the Heat winning by 8 and by 2. The Heat became the first team this year to win two straight games while scoring fewer than 100 points in each. The numbers is a bit low, but the Heat won on the road last night and now have to travel back home for this one, so just going to stay away.
Orlando at New Orleans: The Pelicans are favored by 9 and the total is all the way down to 218 after being 224 earlier. I have this one at 216 and 203, but am going to stay away due to losing nearly all of the value in the total. The Magic don’t score much, but have gone 14-6 in totals when the line is 218 or higher, while the Pelicans are 6-2 in totals when the number is less than 220, so the trends and the numbers don’t agree on this one.
Atlanta at San Antonio: The Hawks are now favored by 1 and the total here has bounced back up to 221 after being down to 220 or 220.5 earlier this morning. I have the Hawks winning by 4 and by 1. Another game where I’d like to take the under, but can’t quite pull the trigger.
Charlotte at Brooklyn: The Nets are favored by 3, as they’re a little short-handed in this one, but think the Hornets will get their attention and am going to take a shot on Brooklyn in this one. It’s one of those that isn’t a real strong play, but you really can’t find anything you’re completely enamored with.
3/31/21
This is getting pathetic, as I dropped to 53-55 on the season when the total went over in the first half on the Denver game by one point after a 44-point outburst by Denver in the first quarter, which is how things have been going as of late. A number of games without lines or that just saw lines posted, so will focus on the ones that have been out for a while.
Toronto at Oklahoma City: The Raptors opened as 8-point favorites and not sure they should be favored by 8 over anybody on the road, as they’ve lost their last eight games on the road, including their last four as a road favorite, a role that has seen them go 5-8 on the season, but 0-4 in March. The Thunder haven’t been any better as a home dog this season, going 1-8 ATS when getting 7 or more points, so going to stay clear of this one even though I wanted to take Oklahoma City.
Sacramento at San Antonio: The Spurs are down to 2.5-point favorites after getting thumped by the Kings a couple of nights ago and Sacramento is playing well right now, going 9-4 in March and actually playing some defense, allowing 113.8 points. The Kings are 1-4 in the games where they’ve allowed 120 or more points, so going to take a shot on the under 230.5 in this one. The Spurs are 3-8 in totals after allowing 120 or more points and I have it at 226.
Milwaukee at Lakers: The Bucks are -8.5 with a total of 221.5 here and much like last night’s Clippers game, it’s going to come down to effort. The Bucks have been coasting through the regular season, not really putting much effort into games when you think they would, and the Lakers may or may not be enough to get them motivated here. The Lakers won in Milwaukee in January, but with Milwaukee just 5-10 ATS avenging a loss, it isn’t easy to pull the trigger on this one, with the Lakers being shorthanded again.
Portland at Detroit: The Blazers are 6.5 and 221 and I have this one a 112-111 game, so could make a case for the Pistons here, but Detroit has been awful after a 10-point win, going just 1-5 ATS this season. The Blazers have won three straight road games in Florida and now stop in Michigan on their way back home to face the Bucks on Friday.
3/30/21
We dropped a game under .500 when the Knicks failed to show up in the third quarter last night, diddling away a 43-36 halftime lead by getting outscored 39-21. Just four games on the slate for today, so will look to break the skid in the NBA.
Charlotte at Washington: The Hornets are favored by 3.5 with a total of 229.5 and numbers are all over the place for this one, with the two methods using season-to-date numbers calling for the Hornets to win 118-114 and 119-115. Using the last seven home/away games has a projection of 120-120 and the last 10 games efficiency ratings are calling for a 114-113 Charlotte win, although with Beal being questionable, it’s hard to grab the Wizards in this one. Both first-half projections called for 117 points and the first-half total is 116.5.
Philadelphia at Denver: The Nuggets are now favored by 5 in a game where the numbers all like the 76ers, but the line movement has me a little leery to pull the trigger. Three of the four numbers have the 76ers winning outright, while another has it 110-110. The total on the game is 221 and two methods like the over, one is on the under and one is at 221. The Nuggets are 2 and 112 in the first half and I have it 56-54 and 56-51 for Philadelphia, so will take a shot on the first half under.
Atlanta at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 6 with a total of 221 and I have the Suns winning with all four sets of numbers, but only covering in the last seven home/away games, with the others calling for margins of 1,3 and 4 points. The Hawks were pretty dismal last game at Denver, which could be driving the line a little bit in this one.
Orlando at LA Clippers: This one is all about motivation and effort, as the Clippers could win by 20 if they put their minds to it, but there’s going to be a little bit of a letdown after taking it to Milwaukee last night. I have the Clippers winning anywhere between 12 and 29 points, so not about to touch the Magic here. The line has climbed to 11.5 in most places, while the total has dropped to 215.
3/29/21
A split yesterday to remain at .500 with a 53-53 record. Running a few minutes late after some morning internet issues, so will see what we can come up for the day.
Indiana at Washington: The Pacers are favored by 5 and the total on this one is 233, while I have Indiana winning 121-118. Indiana has played pretty well on the road this season and there isn’t much difference in their home vs. away performances. The Wizards have gone 2-8 after making some brief noise last month, but they’ve come back down to earth.
Minnesota at Brooklyn: The Timberwolves are coming off a thumping at the hands of the Houston Rockets, which tells you all you need to know about the state of things with Minnesota, while the Nets are starting to get people back and Irving is listed as probable for this one after missing a few games due to a personal matter. The Nets are favored by 11.5 and the total is 238.5. The number is pretty steep, especially with the Nets showing occasional glimpses of being able to a little bit of defense at times. The Nets have allowed 111.5 points this month, which is just .2 points more than the league average, so they are putting a little more emphasis on stopping the opposition. The Nets allowed 113.8 in February and 119.5 in January, so they are getting better there.
Miami at New York: The Heat are favored by 4 and the total is all the way down to 204.5 after opening at 207.5 and hard to argue with the move on the total, as I have this one 101-98 in favor of the Knicks. New York is coming off a big win at Milwaukee against a short-handed Bucks team, but don’t really trust Miami as a road favorite. The Heat are 2-2 this season as a road favorite of four or more points and the Knicks have gone 2-6 ATS as a home dog this season, including a 6-point loss to Miami as 5.5-point dogs last month. Still, going to take a shot on the Knicks as a home dog in a revenge role, with both teams possibly missing a player or two. Think New York is able to make this one a decent game and points should be tough to come by.
3/28/21
Dropped down to .500 once again with a 52-52 as I botched the plays here for a second-straight night, being too cautious and doing too much handicapping of the handicapping, which is more often that not a recipe for disaster. Just four games on the schedule for today, so will look at each one a little bit.
Phoenix at Charlotte: The Suns are favored by 6 and the total is 219.5, while I have Phoenix winning 113-108 and 111-105, so pretty much all around the numbers. The Suns are favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 108 and I have Phoenix leading 59-54, but have the Hornets on top 56-54 with the other method that uses a team’s last seven home or away games.
Portland at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 1 with a total of 229.5 and I have Portland winning 121-116 and have Toronto winning 118-113 in the other method. The Raptors are -.5 in the first half with a total of 116.5 and I have Portland leading 63-61 and 61-58, so going to take a stab on the first half to go over the 116.5 total. Toronto has gone 7-4 in totals the last month after a loss, so hopefully they look to push the pace a bit in this one.
Atlanta at Denver: Solid game here where the Nuggets are favored by 4.5 and the total is all the way down to 224. I have the Hawks winning 109-108, but also have it 115-115 with the second method. The Nuggets are 2.5 in the first half with a total of 114 and I have Atlanta leading 56-53 and 60-54, so going to play the Hawks in the first half of this one.
Orlando at Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 6.5 and the total is back up to 208 and I have the Lakers winning 110-100 and 107-91, although part of those projections are based on numbers from when LeBron was still in the line-up. Still hard to tell how the Magic are going to fare after getting rid of several players at the trade deadline. They did cover the number against the Blazers, but still lost by 7, which is higher than the spread here. Tough game to pull the trigger on.
3/27/21
We fell to 52-51 on the season with a half-point loss on the Houston first-half total, as Minnesota couldn’t score a single point in the final 2:58 of the first half, making three turnovers and missing a layup, had a dunk blocked and missed a couple of 3-pointers in one of those frustrating first-half losses. Still, the Timberwolves fared better than the Rockets who were scoreless over the final 7 minutes of the game, giving anybody who bet Houston a brutal beat. A number of games on the slate today, although not really that great from a betting perspective, as some new players are trying to adjust to their teams.
Memphis at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 10 in this one and the total is 228. I have it at 234 and the Grizzlies are going to come out and try and force the issue after playing faster in the second half and getting themselves back into the game. At least that’s what Scott Brooks told NBA.com after the game. The Grizzlies trailed 66-50 at halftime, but outscored Utah 64-51 in the second half. Going to take a shot on Memphis +10 in this one, although a little miffed I didn’t pull the trigger on the Grizzlies last night. Teams are 12-27-1 after playing Memphis this season.
New York at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 9 and the total is 223 and I have Milwaukee winning by 7 and 223 points scored. Teams have gone 29-12-3 in totals after playing the Celtics, while teams are 29-13 ATS after playing the Wizards. Tough game to get a read on, with the Bucks laying an egg against the Celtics last night.
Detroit at Washington: The Wizards are favored by 3.5 and the total is 226, while I have Detroit winning 114-111. Teams who have dropped three straight are 16-6-1 ATS this season, so just staying away from this one.
Philadelphia at Clippers: The Clippers are 4.5 and the total is 221.5 and I have the 76ers winning, but both teams could be a little shorthanded here. Embiid is out for Philadelphia, while Leonard’s status is up in the air. Teams who won their last two on the road are 20-8-1 ATS when made a home favorite this year, so will probably stay clear of this one.
3/26/21
The first few days after trade deadline are always among the trickiest when it comes to handicapping, as there’s no real way to tell how teams will perform with additions and subtractions until we can see them on the court. We’re 52-50 on the season, so will see what we can come up with for Friday.
Brooklyn at Detroit: The Nets are favored by 5.5 with a total of 219.5 and may find themselves without their ‘Big 3’ tonight, as Harden is listed as questionable and Irving and Durant are both out. The Pistons are going to be a little shorthanded themselves, so a tough one to get involved with.
Boston at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 6 and these two played a great game the other night. The Celtics were active at the trade deadline, although not all of their new players will be able to play in this one. I have the Bucks winning 124-117, but a little tough to play the over 234 after the 121-119 game last out.
Memphis at Utah: The Jazz opened 10.5 and the line is now 9.5, while the total has inched upwards from 227.5 to 228. I have each team covering the spread, with one projection calling for a 118-115 Utah win and the other calling for a 119-107 Jazz victory. Memphis has been a decent road team, but they’re better as an away favorite, going 6-1 against the spread, compared to 4-6 ATS as a dog. These two play back-to-back games and it’s always difficult to gauge how the first game is going to play out. Want to take Memphis, but they’ve dropped their last five as a road dog.
Houston at Minnesota: The Timberwolves are favored by 2 in the first half and the total is 117.5 and going to take a shot on the first-half over in this one, mainly because not really enamored with any of the other games. I have this one just sneaking over the number.
Cleveland at Lakers: The Lakers opened 5.5 and the line has just 3.5, as people continue to bet against Los Angeles, but they showed a bit of fight last night against the 76ers and wouldn’t be too quick to take the Cavs in this one.
3/25/21
A split last night, losing with the first quarter over in the Rockets game, one that I thought had a better chance of seeing some points score, but Houston showed why they’re Houston and we’re 51-50 on the season. Small slate tonight and a bit tough at a first glance.
Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio: The Clippers have been bet up to 6.5 and the total here is 223.5 and I have the Clippers winning 113-106 and also have San Antonio winning 108-106, so going to take a shot on the under here. The Clippers waxed the Spurs last night and think San Antonio comes out and plays better defense in this one.
Portland at Miami: Decent game here, where the Heat are favored by 3 and the total has come down to 218.5 and my numbers agree with the move on the total, as I have Miami winning 108-104 and 108-107. A bit of a tough one to play.
Washington at New York: The Knicks are favored by 3 and the total here is 224.5. The Knicks put a hurtin’ on the Wizards Tuesday night, so some people are expecting a better effort from the Wizards here. The Knicks were favored by 2.5 and the total was 221 in that game, so you’re paying a bit of a price if you want to wager on another high-scoring game here. My numbers like the over, with the Knicks winning 118-110 and 124-110.
Golden State at Sacramento: The two Northern California teams do battle in this one and the Kings are favored by 2.5 with a total of 226. The Warriors drilled the Kings 137-106 when they last met in January and I have the Kings winning 120-110 and 119-111, although Sacramento could also be a little short-handed in this one.
Philadelphia at Lakers: The 76ers are favored by 6 in this one and I have them winning by 6 but have it even in another method, so not going to go against LA here. We went against them a few times since James has been out, but those games saw both numbers pretty much agreeing with the line before accounting for James’ injury.
3/24/21
Huge slate of NBA games for Wednesday and looked at the games from several different angles, so will see if we can’t improve on our 50-49 record. There are four teams playing the second end of a back-to-back situation and those teams have gone 14-20 ATS when they won the first game and 22-15 against the spread when they dropped the first game over the past month. For the season, teams are 57-62-1 after a win and 69-54-1 after a loss. The interesting thing about the past month is games have gone 22-48-1 in totals when a team played the previous night, but they’re still 113-123-8 for the season.
Phoenix at Orlando: Both teams were in action last night and teams are 17-7 against the spread when they lost the previous night and their opponent won, although teams at home are 11-6 ATS and home dogs are just 4-5 ATS. My numbers have the Suns winning by double digits with two of the three totals methods calling for the over, which goes against the most recent trends, so staying clear of this one, as the Suns just went to 9.5.
Charlotte at Houston: The Rockets broke their massive losing skid last time out and are home underdogs again in this one. Not really interested in the full-game line here, but the Hornets are favored by .5 with a total of 57 for the first quarter and I have Charlotte leading 34-30, so going to take a stab on the first-quarter over here. The Hornets are seeing 59.4 points in the first half of their nine games this month and the Rockets have seen 60.1 points in their 10 games. The league average is 56.4 points and both teams are several points above that, so think we have a decent chance to get this one over the total early. I have this one at 117 for the first half and the first-half total is 114, so not quite the same edge.
Cleveland at Chicago: The Bulls are favored by 3 and the first-half total has just dropped to 110.5 and I have this one 54-45 for Chicago. The Bulls are seeing 106.1 first-half points this month and the Cavs are seeing 107.1. The numbers like the under for the first half, but in Chicago’s 19 home games since Feb. 1, the Bulls have seen 115.1 first-points compared to 106.7 points in the second half. The Bulls have been much the same, playing 12 away games since Feb. 1 and seeing 110.4 first-half points and 100.3 in the second half, so will try the full-game under 217 instead.
3/23/21
Running about 45 minutes late this morning after getting my first COVID vaccine, which took a little bit longer than anticipated, but still time well spent. I know far too many people who have passed away in the last 12 months. No preaching here, just stating facts and we’ll look to get back on track after falling to 49-49 for the season last night, as Chicago didn’t bother showing up in what was a decent situation for them.
Lakers at New Orleans: The Pelicans are favored by 5.5 or 6 depending on where you place your wagers and going to go right back to the well and go against the Lakers, who are missing James and Davis. Los Angeles has owned New Orleans as of late and this is a golden opportunity for the Pelicans to get a win against LA. The price is a little steep, but I had New Orleans winning by 5 and 7 points before the injury situation, so will take the Pelicans.
Denver at Orlando: The Nuggets are attracting a lot of money in this one although the line has held pretty steady at Denver -7.5 and the total has also held pretty steady, hovering between 216.5 and 217. My numbers have Denver covering the spread, but the Magic have been decent home underdogs as of late, covering 6 of their last 7 after opening the year 1-5. Denver has covered three of their last four as an away favorite. Denver is in, so may not be in any big effort to roll up the scpre here. action tomorrow against Toronto
Washington at New York: The Knicks have moved from 2 to 2.5, while the total has come down a little bit, opening at 225.5 and is now at 224. The Knicks have strayed from the defensive first philosophy at times lately, which is too bad, as the Knicks are 20-12 against the spread when they hold the opposition to 110 or fewer points and 17-5 ATS when holding foes to 105 or fewer points. This is only the second game the Wizards have seen a total of less than 225 this season, with the first coming against these same Knicks back on Feb. 12 when New York took a 109-91 road victory. New York was favored by 3 in that one when the Wizards were a bit shorthanded and the total on that game was 218.
3/22/21
We split the two NBA plays on Sunday, as I did a crappy job with the games, passing up on Boston and taking Toronto, but no point harping on it and time to just move forward. We’re 49-48 on the season and have just one play for the day.
Utah at Chicago: The Jazz are favored by 9 on the road and the total is 228. This is the last game of a brutal schedule for Utah, as they’ve been on the road for nine of their last 10 games and this is the fifth straight road game for the Jazz on this trip. Utah returns home for a four-game homestand after this one. The Jazz haven’t been all that impressive the past 10 games or so and I have this one essentially a toss-up, so will take a shot on the Bulls +9 in this one.
Charlotte at San Antonio: The Spurs are favored by 5 with a total of 221.5, while I have San Antonio winning 115-110 and 116-107, so the slightest of leans to the over, but probably not a game I’ll be on.
Boston at Memphis: Memphis is favored by 2 and the total is 220, while I have the Grizzlies winning 115-109 and 109-106, so not much happening in this one.
Toronto at Houston: The Raptors are favored 8.5 with a total of 222.5 and there’s no way I’d be putting any money on this one. I have the Raptors winning 116-108 and 110-105, so the numbers have a slight lean to the Rockets, who somehow have been favored their last two games, making them the first team to have lost at least 12 straight games and find themselves favored in back to back games in the last 25 years, although it’s likely been much longer than that.
Atlanta at Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 6 and the total is 225.5, while I have the Hawks winning 109-106 and the Clippers winning 113-107 with the other method. The numbers like the under a little bit, but the Clippers are 12-8 when the total is this low and the Hawks are 7-12. Atlanta did win 108-99 in January as a 6-point home favorite.
3/21/21
Tough slate in the NBA today, as a number of players are going to be missing action. We’re 48-47 on the year entering today.
Oklahoma City at Houston: The Thunder are going to be missing a number of players in this stinkfest and as a result, the Rockets are favored by 4.5. Not about to take Houston here after having them against Detroit in a game neither team really wanted to win, but thought the Rockets would be trying to end their slide, which is now at 19 games. A lot of jobs should be on the line. Both of my numbers have the Thunder winning the game, but won’t touch this one at all.
Lakers at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 9 over the Lakers, who are going to be without LeBron James in this one, and am going to go ahead and take Phoenix. I have the Suns winning by 8 and 9 and that’s not factoring in the injury to James. The one reservation is that the Suns may have a bit of a letdown with the Lakers missing a couple of key players, but if Monty Williams can keep his team focused there’s no reason why the Suns don’t win by double digits.
Toronto at Cleveland: The Raptors are favored by 7.5 in this one and my numbers have the Cavs winning, although they don’t factor in the injuries to Cleveland. Teams who have lost at least three straight and are favored this year are 29-23-1 ATS and the Raptors fit here, along the Rockets and Celtics. Away favorites of 7 or more points on a three-game losing streak are 36-20-1 over the years, so a little tempted to take the Raptors here, but one that I’ll likely stay away from.
Orlando at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 8.5 in this one and I have Boston winning by 12 and 14, but a little hard to get excited over the Celtics the way they’ve been playing. The Celtics fit into a recent system involving 8-point or larger favorites on at least a 3-game losing streak, although long-term it’s closer to 50-50. Will likely just stay away from this one and see how it all plays out.
Washington at Brooklyn: The Nets are favored by 8.5 and the total has climbed to 247.5 and my numbers have the Nets winning 130-115 and 119-107. Tempted to take the under, but the Nets may elect to skip on playing defense in this one themselves after doing a fair job of it at home lately.
3/20/21
Fell for the Houston Rockets last night and they turned in another dismal effort, as they’ve gone in full tank mode. We’re back down to .500 for the season at 47-47, so need to get things turned around in a hurry. Smaller number of games on the slate today, so was able to look the games over in a little more detail than normal.
Golden State at Memphis: The Grizzlies have moved from 5 to 5.5 this morning and the total is hovering around 219. I have the Grizzlies winning 113-104 and 107-99, so going to take Memphis here in a quick revenge role. Curry has been listed as doubtful, so I expect this one to move and am typing as fast as possible to get this done before the line climbs any. The Grizzlies were favored by 7 last time when Curry was expected to miss the game.
Atlanta at Lakers: An early start here, where the Lakers are favored by 4 and the total on the game is 220. The Hawks have been playing some defense lately and have been winning, although the number is still pretty cheap. I have the Lakers winning 109-108 and 111-105, so nothing happening in this one.
Sacramento at Philadelphia: The banged-up 76ers are 6.5 and the total has climbed a little bit in this one to 231.5. I have the 76ers rolling to victory, although that doesn’t really factor in the injury situation to Philadelphia.
San Antonio at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 9.5 and the total is 231, while I have Milwaukee winning 116-109 and 116-105, so the numbers like the under a little bit. It can be difficult to predict how the Bucks are going to come out and the team is 16-7 when the total is 230 or higher. San Antonio is 4-4-1.
Charlotte at Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 9.5 after opening as 10-point favorites and the total on the game has dropped from 233.5 to 232. I have the Clippers winning 119-115 and 129-119, so the numbers like the over a little bit in this one. The Hornets are 8-5 in totals when the number is at least 230 and the Clippers have gone 5-5. There was an old betting system many years ago that involved high totals on Saturday nights and games are 13-8-1 this season with a total of 230 or higher on Saturday, but I certainly wouldn’t base a wager on that.
3/19/21
Dropped to 47-46 on the season last night, as the Suns and Minnesota didn’t get the scoring going until the second half, one of those games that drives you nuts. Will be honest here in that I didn’t have a whole lot of time for the NBA today, electing to spend the time on college basketball, as I’ll be making in-game wagers, second-half wagers, etc., for most of the day. So just one play for today and it’s not particularly a strong one.
Detroit at Houston: This one is about as ugly as it gets, where the Rockets are favored by 1.5 and the total is 214. Strictly a situational play here and going to take the Rockets in a game where I’ll look pretty stupid if they lose. Houston has dropped 18 straight games but are actually the fifth team since the 2006-07 season to have lost at least 18 games and be favored in a game. The previous four teams went 2-2 against the spread. Teams who have lost at least 12 straight games and are favored have gone 12-7 ATS and 5-3 if they won the previous matchup between the two teams. Teams that are on a losing streak like the Rockets are having some confidence issues, but playing a team they defeated previous should help in that regard. Definitely a game I wouldn’t watch unless I absolutely had to.
San Antonio vs. Cleveland: Another ugly game here, where the Spurs are favored by 4.5 and the total has dropped from 214 to 211 even though we’ve seen more over wagers come in on the game. My numbers have the game going over the total, but the trends point to the under. San Antonio lost the last time these two met and are 12-9-1 in that situation so far this year.
Golden State at Memphis: The line here sees Memphis favored by 8, which is a bit steep, but with Curry listed as doubtful it’s probably the only way you can really go. We saw the Warriors without Curry last season and it wasn’t pretty.
Utah at Toronto: A fair game where the Jazz are favored by 5 and the total is 230.5. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS when favored by 5 or less on the road this year, while the Raptors dropped their only game as a 5-point underdog or greater, when they lost to the Bucks by 7 as 6-point underdogs.
3/18/21
We moved to 47-45 on the season last night and have a bit of a smaller schedule than we’ve been dealing with, as there are just six games on tap this evening. I ran the first half numbers two different ways, the standard method of looking at the last 10-11 games, as well as using the past seven home or away games, depending on where the team is at tonight. Some games didn’t see much of a difference in the projections, while they were pretty pronounced in others.
Utah at Washington: The Jazz are favored by 7 with a total of 116 and I have Utah leading 64-57 with the standard projection and 63-58 with the last seven games. Both numbers have a five-point difference towards the over.
Orlando at New York: The Knicks have moved from -3 to 2.5, which is a slight surprise, and I have New York leading 53-49 with the standard method and 61-46 using the last seven games, as New York has been a much-higher scoring team at home as of late, although that’s a little distorted due to the 140 points they put up on the Kings. The Knicks have moved from -6 to -5 in the full-game betting despite getting the majority of the wagers in the game.
Oklahoma City at Atlanta: The Hawks are -3.5 and 115, while I have Atlanta leading 55-50 and 57-54 using the last seven games, so the numbers like the under in this one.
Minnesota at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 6 and the total has climbed to 118 after being 116 earlier this morning. This one is all about effort on the part of Phoenix, as I have Phoenix leading 65-50 and 71-56. The Suns thumped Minnesota 118-99 a few weeks back in Minnesota, but did lead by just 5 at the half. I’m going to take a shot on the over here, as the Suns have averaged 62.3 points in the first half over their last seven home games and Minnesota is allowing 64.4, while scoring 59 themselves.
New Orleans at Portland: The Blazers are -.5 with a total of 121.5 and I have Portland leading 63-61 and also have it 66-66, so the last seven games likes the over in this one.
Charlotte at Lakers: The Lakers are 4 with a total of 115 and I have LA leading 62-58 and 65-59, so another game where the numbers like the over a little bit, although the full-game total has dipped slightly even though there have been more over wagers.
3/17/21
Just when it looked like things were going well in the NBA, an 0-3 night pops up, with a couple of the losses not even close. Since several of the games with big first-half differences also had differences in the first quarter those games were 1-6, with double losses on the Jazz over and the Bulls under. Chicago started 16 for 20 from the field, so knew that one was over early, while a 42-point first quarter in the Jazz game pretty much doomed the first half over 112 in the first 12 minutes of the game. Even though there were 65 points in the second quarter, we were still five points shy. Miami went over the total with 41 seconds left in the half after giving us a little false hope late in the half. But we dropped all the way down to 46-45 for the season.
Brooklyn at Indiana: The Nets are favored by 1.5 with a total of 120 and I have Brooklyn leading at the half by a 65-54 score, but this is one of the games that shows me I’m still going to need to make some adjustments to the first-half method, as that projected margin for the Nets is a bit misleading. I’m using games from the last four weeks only here, to account for most recent tendencies, but what’s happened is the Pacers played two home games and seven road games in that time span, so naturally they’re going to be a disadvantage for projected margin. The Nets jumped out to a 62-30 halftime lead when these teams met last month and won 104-94.
Boston at Cleveland: Boston is 4.5 with a total of 104.5 and I have the Celtics leading 60-52 at the break, so the numbers like the over in this one. Boston is 5-2 in totals with no rest and 12-6 after a loss, although the Cavs are 5-9-2 after scoring fewer than 100 points and 2-6 with no rest, so will just stay away.
LA Clippers at Dallas: We had the under when these two met a few nights ago and the numbers like the under once again, as the Clippers are -.5 and the total is 115.5 and I have LA leading 56-52. The surprising thing about last game and its 109-99 final is that both teams actually shot the ball well. But there were only 16 attempted free throws in the game, which is why there were so few points and why I’ll harp on foul shots from time to time.
Miami at Memphis: This one is even with a total of 112 and I have the Heat leading 52-47, so the numbers like the Heat and the under. The under is the biggest difference between all lines and projections, so will take a shot on the under 112 here.
3/16/21
We split our two plays last night and all the games with at least a 5-point difference between our numbers and the lines were 4-2, so no point changing things now. We’re 46-42 on the year with the games listed as plays.
Utah at Boston: The Jazz are favored by 2 with a total of 112 in the first half and I have this one 59-59 at intermission, so going to go ahead and play the over in this one. The first quarter line is Utah -1 and 56 and I have the Celtics leading 31-30 at the end of the first quarter, so a 5-point difference there.
Oklahoma City at Chicago: The Bulls are favored by 3 with a total of 115 in the first half and I have Chicago leading 54-50, so will take the under 115 in this one. The Bulls are -3 in the first quarter with a total of 57.5 and the numbers have the Thunder leading 27-24, so the first quarter numbers like Oklahoma City and the under in this one.
Cleveland at Miami: The Heat are favored by 6.5 and the total just dropped to 105.5 and I have Miami leading 51-45 at the half, so will take the under 105.5 in this one for the final play of the day. I have the Heat leading 27-23 at the end of the first quarter.
New York at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 3.5 with a total of 110.5 and I have Philadelphia leading 57-52 at the half, so this one’s pretty close to the line for both the side and the total. I do have Philadelphia leading 30-25 at the end of the first quarter.
New Orleans at Portland: The Blazers are favored by .5 with a total of 122 and I have Portland leading 63-62 at the end of the first half, so another one that’s pretty close to the lines. I have Portland leading 32-30 at the end of the first quarter.
Minnesota at Lakers: Another games where the lines are pretty close to our numbers, as Los Angeles is favored by 5 with a total of 113.5 and I have the Lakers leading 61-55. The Lakers are projected to have a 30-26 edge at the end of the first quarter.
3/15/21
We moved to 45-41 on the season Sunday and will stick with the same format, looking at both first half lines and first quarter lines. The first quarter games were 2-2, with the games with the first half differences going 4-3. We’ll use the two games with the biggest differences as our plays for the day. Not all games have first quarter lines posted right now.
Milwaukee at Washington: The Bucks are favored by 4.5 with a first-half total of 118, while I have the Bucks leading 65-60, so the numbers like the over a bit. I have Milwaukee leading 34-26 after the first quarter, which would be a five-point difference in the first quarter line, where the Bucks are favored by 3. The Bucks did win a couple of days ago here.
Sacramento at Charlotte: The Hornets are favored by 1 in the first half with a total of 122 and I have Charlotte leading 66-60, so a five-point difference for the home team.
San Antonio at Detroit: The Spurs are favored by .5 with a total of 106 and I have San Antonio leading 52-46, so a 5.5-point difference for the Spurs and an 8-point difference in the total, so will take the under 106 in this one. The Spurs are 5-9-1 in totals after a loss, with the scoring in each half fairly consistent.
Indiana at Denver: Denver is favored by 2.5 with a total of 114.5 and I have the Nuggets leading 63-57, so a 5.5-point difference in favor of Denver in this one.
Clippers at Dallas: The Clippers are favored by a half-point with a total of 116 and I have Los Angeles leading 55-52, so a 9-point difference with the total and will take this one to land under the number. The Clippers are 6-0 straight-up and against the spread when playing with no rest this year. LA has gone over the total after a loss, but has seen more points in the second halves of those games. Their average halftime score after a loss is 58-51.4. The second half of those games has seen an average score of 60.7-58.
3/14/21
We stopped the bleeding in the NBA last night, although a few of the other games the numbers pointed towards didn’t perform all that well, even if there were a few circumstances that were likely to keep you off of games. We’re still just 43-41 on the season. One thing I did this morning was also run some first quarter numbers and I’ll point those. Basically, something to track for a bit and see how those projections pan out. Sticking with first-half plays and a couple of games have decent-sized differences, but we’ll just use the two largest differences for plays.
Memphis at Oklahoma City: Memphis is 3.5 and 108.5 in the first half and I have the Grizzlies leading 51-50, so the numbers like the first-half under. I have the Thunder leading 25-24 after the first quarter, which is a 5-point difference from the first-quarter total of 54.
San Antonio at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 2 with a total of 109.5 in the first half and I have this one 52-52, so the numbers would be on the under. I have the 76ers leading 30-22 after the first quarter, so a 7-point edge to Philadelphia on the first-quarter side.
Miami at Orlando: The Heat are -4 and 107 in the first half and I have Miami leading 52-48 at halftime, so another one where the numbers like the under.
Boston at Houston: The Celtics are favored by 6.5 with a first-half total of 109 and I have the Celtics leading 65-52 at the break, so will play the over 109 in the first half of this one. The numbers also like Boston in the first half, as well as the first-quarter over 54.5, as I have the Celtics leading 35-28 after the first 12 minutes.
Toronto at Chicago: The Bulls are -1.5 with a first-half total of 118 and I have the Bulls leading 57-53, so will take the under 118 in a game where I’m just following the numbers and not necessarily thrilled with the projection. Both teams are coming off low-scoring games after playing some pretty high-scoring affairs, but will see how this one plays out.
Clippers at New Orleans: The Clippers are favored by 3 or 3.5 depending on your sportsbook, while I have Los Angeles leading 64-56, which is right on the total of 120. The numbers lean to the Clippers in this one.
3/13/21
Laboring in the NBA and when that happens, you’re going to get the breaks going against you, while was the case last night in Los Angeles and we ended up with a half-point loss on the Pacers who fell apart in the fourth quarter and not only lost the game outright after leading by double-digits in the fourth quarter, they also failed to cover the 4.5-point number that was used at the time we bet it. All the way down to 42-41 on the season, so going to mix it up a little bit and look at the first half of today’s games.
New York at Oklahoma City: The Knicks are favored by 2.5 with a total of 106 and I have New York leading 52-51 and 52-50, so pretty close to the numbers in this one.
Detroit at Brooklyn: The Nets are favored by 6.5 with a total of 115.5 and I have Brooklyn leading 63-52 and 62-54, so not much happening in this one.
Milwaukee at Washington: The Bucks are favored by 6.5 with a total of 117.5 and I have the Bucks leading 64-62 and 62-58, with the second number the projection using numbers from the past 10 games or so.
Toronto at Charlotte: Charlotte is favored by 1 with a total of 119.5 and I have each team leading this one 60-59.
Sacramento at Atlanta: The Hawks are favored by 2 with a total of 121.5 and I have Atlanta leading 61-56 and 64-58, so going to take a shot on Atlanta in this one. Oddly, these teams haven’t played since 2019.
Portland at Minnesota: The Blazers are -2 with a total of 120 and I have Minnesota leading 58-57 and the Blazers ahead 61-59.
Dallas at Denver: The Nuggets are favored by .5 with a total of 115 and I have Denver leading 61-54 and 60-53, so the numbers lean with the home team a little bit, but with Denver coming off a one-point road win in Memphis last night, a little tough to pull the trigger on the Nuggets. Denver is 0-4 as a home favorite off a win with no rest this year.
Indiana at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 4 with a total of 113.5 and I have the Suns leading 61-51 and 63-50. The Pacers have gone 9-5 ATS off a loss and 3-1 ATS off a loss with no rest.
3/12/21
Have hit another slump in the NBA, falling to 42-40 on the season, which isn’t going to get the job done. We’re faced with a bit of a tough slate of games for Friday, so will see what we can come up with for today.
Denver at Memphis: The Nuggets opened 3.5 and the line is down slightly to 3, while the total has been holding steady at 227.5. I have this one landing under the number with my two projections, but Denver is 13-5 in totals this season when the number is 225 or greater, so just going to stay away from this one.
Philadelphia at Washington: The 76ers are favored by 4.5 and the total is 234, while I have it slightly higher, but no real interest here, with Beal listed as questionable and it’s a case of even if he does go, he might not be 100%.
Cleveland at New Orleans: New Orleans is favored by 7 over the Cavaliers, who have been playing pretty good lately, winning four of their last five games. The total is 229 and the season projection is calling for just 215, while the most recent numbers are calling for 239, thanks to New Orleans forgetting how to play defense lately.
Orlando at San Antonio: The Spurs are favored by 7 with a total of 214.5 and I have the Spurs winning by 10. San Antonio is just 2-3 as a 5-point or more favorite, while going 0-5 in totals in those games. Not really thrilled with laying that many points with San Antonio.
Houston at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 17 and the total has climbed to 228.5. I have the Jazz winning 129-10. No real interest in the Jazz, as they have no real reason to roll the score up, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them win by 20.
Indiana at Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 4.5 with a total of 216.5 and I have LA winning 110-109, so going to take a shot on the Pacers. One of those games you’re not really thrilled with, but it’s basically the only thing you can find on the schedule.
3/11/21
Too many free throws in the Memphis game last night did us in by two points. We’ve touched on it a little before, but in games where both teams shot at least 27 free throws, totals are 569-199-20 (74.1%) since the start of the 2015-16 season and 38-11-1 this season, so when there were 34 foul shots taken in the first half, I pretty much knew we were done. A 50-point third quarter gave us a little bit of life, only to see three 3-pointers in the final 1:24 do us in. We fell to 42-39 on the season and today have a huge slate of games, where we could have used a few more last night, since the two-game slate was pretty tough.
New York at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened 10.5 with a total of 224.5 and the line is still Milwaukee -10.5, while the total has dropped to 223. I have this one at 217 with season numbers and 203 using most recent numbers, so will go ahead and take the under in this one. The Knicks have gone under the under in their last eight games on the road. New York defeated Milwaukee 130-110 earlier this season in New York in what is the second-worst defeat the Bucks have had this year. The Knicks have been a higher-scoring team at home, where they see an average of 214.7 points compared to away, where they see an average of 204.2 points. The Bucks were favored by 11 in New York when they met a couple of days after Christmas and the total then was 223.5.
Boston at Brooklyn: The Nets opened 3.5 and the line has dropped to 2.5, while the total is holding fairly steady at 233 in this one. A little surprising to see the downward move in the spread, as Brooklyn is getting the majority of the wagers in this one. Boston is 1-2 when playing to totals of 230 or higher on the season, while the Nets are 17-7. My numbers have this one landing under the total, with a 227-point projection for the season to date numbers and a 222 for the most recent numbers, as the Celtics have only scored 107.2 points on the road since the start of February. Of course, the Brooklyn defense might be what the Celtics need, so will likely end up staying away from this one.
3/10/21
The NBA returns today, where we lost our last play before the break to fall to 42-38 on the season. Only two games on the slate for today, which isn’t ideal, especially since we have 11 tomorrow, as opposed to a six or seven-game slate each day.
Home teams are just 253-272-7 (48.2%) against the number this season, while overs have a slight edge, going 264-254-10. Favorites are doing better than average, sporting a 265-248-7 (51.7%) record on the season, but away favorites are doing even better, going 117-97-3 (54.7%), so naturally home favorites are struggling a bit, having gone 148-151-4. Home favorites off a loss are doing a lot better than home favorites off a win, as teams are 72-61-2 (54.1%) when favored at home off a setback and just 71-86-2 when favored after a victory.
Likewise, away underdogs are performing better off a win, going 68-60-4 (53.1%) and just 77-84 against the number after a loss. The best situation this season has been the away underdog when both teams are entering the game off a victory, as they’ve gone 38-19-2 ATS this year, but were just 97-86 a year ago and were 92-105-7 the previous year, so you have to take it with a grain of salt.
Washington at Memphis: The Grizzlies opened 2 and 238 and Memphis is now favored by 3 and the total has dipped a point to 237. Using most recent numbers shows this one at 230 points, where I have Memphis winning by a 117-113 score, so pretty close as far as the side goes and the numbers like the under here, so will follow suit and take a shot on the under, although it’s more of choosing the lesser of two evils and not because it’s a play I feel strongly about.
San Antonio at Dallas: The Mavs opened 4 and the line has held steady even with Dallas getting a pretty significant percentage of the wagers coming in on the game. The total has moved from 219.5 to 223.5, which might be a little bit on the high side, as I have this one Dallas 110-108 using the most recent numbers and nearly the same on the total using season-to-date numbers.
3/4/21
We moved to 42-37 on the season last night and now have a bit of a tough slate of games ahead of us with a couple of make-up games on the ledger as we head into the All-Star break. Just one play today.
Detroit at New York: The Knicks opened 6.5 and the line is still there, while the total has moved from 210.5 to 208.5 even though we’ve seen a few more over wagers come in on the game. Might be going to the well one too many times, but will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one. We had the under when these two met a couple of nights ago and it was a 109-90 final score with a total of 209.5 and really didn’t see anything that would change my mind regarding a different outcome. The Pistons struggled from the field, which is evident in their 90 point performance, while New York had a good shooting night, going 51.2% from the field and 50% on three-pointers. The Knicks only attempted 10 free throws the entire game, but Detroit shot 31 foul shots, which makes up for the limited number that New York attempted.
Sacramento at Portland: The Blazers are favored by 4.5 and the total is at 237 in a game where I’d love to take the under, but not going to be able to pull the trigger due to the situation both teams find themselves in tonight. This season teams playing with no rest are 10-2 in totals when the number is 235 or higher, which makes a bit of sense, as teams figure to be a little tired and many times it’s a team’s defense that suffers more than the offense. Teams were 14-7 in totals last year, although that does include a few of the bubble games when defense was optional for a number of teams and 11-7 the season prior to that, so just going to stay clear of this one.
3/3/21
Was done in by garbage time with the Milwaukee total last night, falling to 40-37 on the season. Garbage time hasn’t been good to us this year, losing a few under plays with 65-point fourth quarters when a game is out of hand, while last night it was the opposite and we got a 46-point fourth quarter, with the Bucks scoring all of 17 points.
Atlanta at Orlando: Big move on the total in this one, as the number opened at 224 and is now all the way down to 220 even though we’ve seen close to an equal number of bets on the over and the under. The Hawks opened 4.5 and the line has dropped to 3.5 even with Atlanta getting more than two-thirds of the early wagers in the game. The two teams haven’t played this year. The Hawks are off an upset win against the Heat and have gone just 1-5 ATS this season after a win as an underdog.
Utah at Philadelphia: Solid game here with the Jazz being favored by 3.5 and the total has climbed a half-point to 228, which is likely a result of the 134-123 Jazz win a couple of weeks ago. The 76ers are 15-3 at home this season, having somehow managed to lose to the Cavs two games ago when I had the 76ers, but will come back with them in this one in a revenge role.
Golden State at Portland: The Warriors are now favored by 2 and Golden State thumped the Blazers pretty good when they played two weeks ago. The Warriors are still just 7-10 on the road, while the Blazers are 9-6 at home, so not so sure the correct team is favored here. Going to take a shot on Portland as a small home dog in this one.
3/2/21
Kind of a tough slate of games for this Tuesday, as one game has been postponed and the Spurs are pretty short-handed with three or four players in quarantine, so will do the best we can here. Dropped a tough one last night, seeing the Bulls intentionally foul with 1.9 seconds remaining. Denver made both foul shots and we came up 1.5 points shy to fall to 40-36 on the season. Will just look at a couple of games tonight.
Denver at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 7 and the total just dropped to 234.5, but going to go against the grain here and take a shot on the over. The Nuggets are just 7-11 ATS following a win, but have gone 11-7 in totals after a victory, while the Bucks are just 10-10 against the spread after a win but 13-6-1 in totals. The Nuggets have gone 7-2 in totals this season when the number is at least 230, while the Bucks are 14-4 when the total is at least 230. Finally, teams playing with no rest are 26-18 (59.1%) in totals this season and 14-6 if they happened to win the previous game. The number is a little higher than I was hoping for, but will follow the trends here and see how it plays out.
Clippers at Boston: The Clippers are favored by 4 and the total here is 220. Los Angeles is in a revenge spot, having lost to the Celtics at home back on Feb. 5 in a game they looked to have comfortably in hand, leading 62-51 at halftime, only to see things fall apart for them in the second half. The Clippers are 4-2 ATS revenging a home loss this season, although the Celtics have been decent as a home dog, going 2-1 ATS and the Celtics are 10-5 ATS at home on the season. The Clippers have gone 8-3 against the spread after a loss this season and they are coming off a tough game against the Bucks. The Celtics are 6-10 against the number after a win. The Celtics are coming off a 1-point win and teams are 13-8 ATS after a one-point victory, which is a little higher than I expected. Tough game to play, but a decent one to have on the television.
3/1/21
Won here last night to move to 40-35 on the season, but still an ugly 1-2 night overall, giving us two straight 1-2 days, so need to get things turned around a little bit. Small slate of games and nothing too terribly exciting
Dallas at Orlando: The Mavericks opened 6.5 and the line is still holding steady with Dallas getting roughly two-thirds of the early wagers in the game. The Mavs are 7-9 ATS after a loss, but have covered three of their last four games in that role, as the team’s earlier losing streak took its toll on their record. The total here has nosedived from 226.5 to 221, which has taken the value out of the under here.
Denver at Chicago: The Nuggets opened as 6-point favorites and the line has dropped down to 4.5 with the betting being much split in terms of the number of wagers on each team, while the total has dropped slightly from 228.5 to 227. The Bulls lost to the Suns the last time they took the court and Chicago has been pretty solid bouncing back after a setback, going 11-5 against the spread. The Nuggets have been a bit the opposite, going 6-11 ATS after a win and 1-6 ATS when they won their last game by 15 or more. Going to take a shot on the Bulls as a home underdog and take the 4.5 points.
Brooklyn at San Antonio: The Nets opened 3.5 and the line has been bet up to 5, as close to 60% of the wagers have come in on the Nets. Brooklyn has gone just 4-8 against the spread after a loss and are 6-6 straight-up. The Spurs are 9-7 against the number after a win, but have been a little better away from home for the most part this season.
Cleveland at Houston: The Rockets are in a free fall, but at least they get the Cavaliers in this one. Still, the Cavs are getting the majority of the wagers in the game, with the line moving from Houston -4 to Rockets -2.5. This is just the third time the Cavs have been a road underdog of less than three points. Houston. When these teams met five days ago in Cleveland the Rockets were favored by 2.5 on the road.
2/28/21
Coming off an ugly 0-2 night in the NBA and neither game was even close, as the 76ers managed to lose to the Cavaliers once again and Denver shot lights out against the Thunder. We fell to 39-35 on the season. Lines are a bit sketchy on several games, but trying to get this out now, as we’ve already lost a bit of value in the one play I had for the day.
New York at Detroit: The Knicks opened -1.5 and the line is down to 1, while the total has moved from 215 to 213. I have this one at 206 and 210.5 and with New York going 5-11 in totals following a win, going to take a shot on the under in this one.
Clippers at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 1.5 and the total is 235, while I’m split on the totals here, with one projection at 236 and the other at 226.5. The Bucks are 13-5-1 in totals after a victory, while the Clippers have gone 12-11 following a win.
Chicago at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 4 and the total is at 227. I have this one at 221 and 225, although the Bulls have gone 11-5 ATS and in totals after a loss. Chicago averages 118.4 points after a loss and 111.5 points after a win.
Atlanta at Miami: The Heat are favored by 6 and the total has held pretty steady this morning at 221. I have this one at 223 with both methods. The Hawks are 8-10 in totals after a loss, but their last seven have gone over the number following a setback. The Heat are 6-9 in totals after a win, but have gone over in their last two.
Washington at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 6.5 and the total is at 231, where I have it at 230 and 224.5. The Wizards are on a 5-2 totals run and have gone 9-3 in totals after a win for the season. The Celtics are 6-9 in totals after a win and are 1-1 when the total is 230 or higher. Boston’s one under came last month against the Wizards when Boston came away with a 116-107 win in a game that was also played in Boston. The total on that one was 234.5 and the Celtics were also favored by 6.5.
2/27/21
We moved to 39-33 in the NBA on Friday and now have a little bit smaller slate for Saturday. There really aren’t any real marquee games on the schedule.
Denver at Oklahoma City: The Nuggets opened 7 and the line has stayed there with Denver getting close to 65% of the early wagers in the game, while the total has dropped a couple of points to 222.5. The Nuggets have won the first two meetings between the two teams, and are starting a road trip. The Thunder have been playing better as of late and I have this one 107-107, so going to take a shot on the Thunder +7. My other totals method has this one at 225, so will just stay clear of the total in this one.
New Orleans at San Antonio: The Pelicans opened -4 and the line has moved to 3.5 while the total has inched up slightly to 229 after opening at 228.5. I have New Orleans winning this one 122-116, although the other totals method is calling for 226 points.
Cleveland at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 10.5 with a total of 223.5, while I have the 76ers cruising to a 121-102 victory. The other method is calling for 221.5 points to be scored. The 76ers have lost to the Cavs by double-digits the last two times the teams have played, which could be enough to motivate them a bit in what is otherwise a bit of a tough spot. The Sixers are coming off a pair of games against Toronto and then defeated the Mavs and have the Pacers on tap. Tobias Harris is going to miss this one for the 76ers, while the Cavs have several players expected to be out, so going to take a shot on the 76ers. Double-digit home favorites are doing well this season and teams who won their two previous games as home underdogs are 10-19-1 when getting double-digits on the road over the years.
Indiana at New York: The Pacers opened 1 and the game is now even, while I have the Knicks winning 111-104. The total here is 218.5 and I have a projection of 219.5 with the other method. The Knicks are attracting a fair amount of wagers in this one.
Dallas at Brooklyn: The Nets look to be settling in as 4-point favorites and the total has dropped a little bit, moving from 239 to 237. Looking at most recent stats, I have Brooklyn rolling to a 131-121 victory, although the other method is calling for just 227.5 points, so will stay away from this one and see how things play out.
2/26/21
Dropped the NBA play on the Bucks last night to fall to 38-33 on the season. So far this season, home teams have won 54.1% of the game played, which is lower than we saw in 2018 (59.1%) and 2017 (58.7%), so the lack of fans is having a bit of an impact.
Phoenix at Chicago: The Suns are favored by 6.5 and the total here is 226. I have the Suns winning 114-111, using the past eight games as a statistical base, while the total has stayed pretty consistent with the vast majority of wagers on the over. Going to take a shot on the under in this one, as both teams are in slight under situations.
Indiana at Boston: The Celtics have moved from -4 to 2.5 even after getting 70% of the wagers in the game. I have this one 111-111, so a bit of an edge to the Pacers in this one.
Houston at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 8.5 and the total is 221, while I have Toronto cruising to a 117-102 victory. The public is on the Raptors pretty good, so no real interest in taking a stand on this one.
LA Clippers at Memphis: The Clippers have moved from 5.5 to 6.5 after getting thumped by the Grizzlies last night. As expected, the Clippers are getting the majority of the wagers in the game. I have the Grizzlies staying within the number, although that doesn’t account for the revenge factor.
Atlanta at Oklahoma City: The Hawks are favored by 5 with a total of 226 and I have the Thunder pulling out a 111-109 victory. Another totals method has this one at 226.5, so no real edge on the total, while the numbers do like Oklahoma City.
Portland at Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 5.5 with a total of 221.5 and I have Los Angeles winning 114-111. The other totals method is calling for even more points, although they don’t account for the injury situation in this one.
Charlotte at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 5.5 and the total is 232.5, while I have Golden State getting the cover by a few and am on both sides of the total, with one calling for the over and the other method calling for an under in this one.
2/25/21
We moved to 38-32 on the season Wednesday and now have a short slate of games on tap for tonight.
New Orleans at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 9 in this one and the total has climbed to 242.5, but think this is a decent spot for Milwaukee, who appears to have gotten its act together the last few games. After dropping a pair of home games against the Raptors, the Bucks have won and covered their last three all by 13 points. The Bucks fell to New Orleans last month 131-126 as 6.5-point road favorites. New Orleans is 2-7-1 ATS after scoring more than 120 points, while also going 9-0-1 in totals, but will stick to the side here and try the Bucks.
Clippers at Memphis: The Clippers have been bet up from 7.5 to 8 and the total has dropped from 228 to 225 after seeing the betting pretty much split on the total, which is usually an indication of the larger bets coming in on the under. I have it at 223.5, which is a little too close for comfort, but could see this one landing on the under.
Washington at Denver: The Nuggets have moved from 7 to 7.5, while the total has inched upwards to 237.5. The Wizards are 4-1 in totals the last five games, scoring and allowing over 123 points per game. The Nuggets are 5-1 in totals when the number is 230 or higher this season and they did drop a 130-128 decision at Washington earlier this year. While Denver can play defense when they want to, they seem more than happy to play high-scoring games at times.
Orlando at Brooklyn: The Nets have moved from 8.5 to 9.5 after getting more than 75% of the wagers in the game. The total opened at 228 and climbed to 229 or 229.5 and then has turned around and dropped back down to 228.
Sacramento at New York: The Knicks are favored by 1.5 and the total on the game is moving upwards, having gone from 223 to 224.5. This is the highest total the Knicks have played to this season, while the Kings are 19-8 in totals this season when the number is 224 or higher.
2/24/21
Good-sized slate of NBA games for Wednesday, with a few decent games and the usual assortment of games that don’t look too appealing. Fell to 37-32 last night when the Bucks’ offense showed up for four quarters.
Lakers at Utah: The Jazz opened 7.5 with a total of 221 and the line has climbed to 9 while the total has dropped to 219 and going to take the under in this one. The Jazz are 2-7-1 in totals when the number is 220 or lower, while the Lakers are 6-9-1. Don’t think the Lakers will want to get into a running contest with Utah while they’re a little short-handed, so think they go back to their more deliberate style of play in this one.
Toronto at Miami: The Heat are favored by 2.5 and the total is bouncing back and forth between 214 and 215.5, having moved several times in the last few minutes. It’s now at 214. This is now a pretty short trip for the Raptors, who will be coming from Tampa, which takes away a little of the home court edge for the Heat. We’ve seen 213 and 182 points the first two times these teams have played this season, so wouldn’t be surprised to see this one land under the number. The Heat have held their last two opponents to 94 points, although that really hasn’t produced much in the way of trends.
Minnesota at Chicago: This one opened Chicago -4.5 and 227.5 and the Bulls are favored by 4 and the total has held steady. The Timberwolves were brutal last defensively last night, but would look for them to bounce back a little bit in this one. Of course, Chicago isn’t Milwaukee offensively, either. Still, Minnesota is 1-3 ATS and 3-1 in totals after allowing more than 130 points, so will just sit this one out and see what transpires.
San Antonio at Oklahoma City: The Thunder have moved from -2 to -1 and the total has dropped from 219 to 216 even though we’re seeing just a few more under bets on the game, so the move is a little bigger than the betting would suggest is warranted. Some injury problems for both teams, so will just stay from this one.
2/23/21
We moved to 37-31 last night when the Heat went under the total and now have a decent-sized slate of games, where the wise guys have taken a few unders.
Minnesota at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 10.5 and the total has moved from 234 to 231 with 55% of the wagers coming in on the over, so going to take a shot on the under in this one. The Timberwolves haven’t been too terribly bad playing defense most of the time this season, as Minnesota allows 114.8 points per game, which is 2.8 points higher than the average. The Timberwolves partially make-up for that by scoring 107.5 points, which is 4.5 points less than the league average. Minnesota has scored less and allowed less over their past five games. The Bucks have been going through the motions lately and no real reason to turn it on here.
Atlanta at Cleveland: The Hawks are favored by 7, as the Cavaliers are in the middle of the worst ATS run sports bettors have seen in year. Cleveland has failed to cover the spread in its last 13 games, making chase system bettors see their bankroll diminish in the process. Not sure if this is the game they break the streak or not, but no interest in taking the Cavs here. The total has dropped down to 226.5 despite seeing a pretty even number of bets on the over and the under. Season-long trends like the under, while most recent trends tend to favor the over in this one.
Sacramento at Brooklyn: The total here is 242 and this is another game where the season-to-date numbers like the under, but the most recent trends are on the over. These two just saw 261 points a week ago, so can’t blame anybody who likes the over here. At some point, the Kings are going to have to realize they’re not good enough to outscore teams, as they’ve averaged 114.8 points their last five games and lost all five.
Washington at Clippers: The total in this one has dropped from 235 to 231 even though we’re seeing more than 60% of the wagers come in on the over. Another game where the most recent numbers like the over and the season-to-date stats like this one to land under the total.
2/22/21
Somewhat small slate for Monday, as we moved to 36-31 on the season when the Knicks went under the total in a strange game last night. Just one play tonight.
Miami at Oklahoma City: The Heat have moved from 5 to 6.5, while the total has dropped down slightly to 212. I also have this one at 212, but with the trends favoring the under going to go ahead and take this one to land under the number. The Heat have gone 4-8 in totals after a victory, while the Thunder are 3-7-1 in totals after a victory. While the season-to-date numbers have this one going over, the recent numbers are the one calling for a lower-scoring game. Miami is 2-5-1 in totals when the total is 215 or lower, while the Thunder have gone 1-3 in the same spot.
Portland at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 6 with a total of 227 and I’m torn on this one. My totals numbers are calling for this one to land over the number, while we’re also seeing a little bit of sharp money on the under. Since the projections are somewhat close to the total, just going to stay away from this one.
Charlotte at Utah: The Jazz are 12.5 and 227.5 and this is somewhat like the game directly above, although my numbers are split in a game where we’re seeing a tad of sharp money on the under, so no hurry to make a stand on this one. The Jazz are getting bet pretty well in this one and double digit favorites have fared well so far this year, but the Jazz are coming off two games with the Clippers and have the Lakers up next, so not so sure how focused they’re going to be in this spot.
Washington at Lakers: Interesting game here, as the Lakers opened 7 and the line has stayed there for the most part with pretty even betting coming in on the game. The price has shifted to -115 on the Lakers at a couple of betting outlets.
2/21/21
A good-sized slate of NBA games on the schedule, but not really that great of a card from a handicapping perspective, as it’s one of those days where you struggle to come up with anything. We moved to 35-31 on the season last night, as the Bulls led from the second quarter on and never looked back in knocking off the Kings.
Minnesota at New York: The Knicks are favored by 3 and the total here is at 216, while I have this one 112-102 in favor of the Knicks, but going to follow some trends and take the under here, not necessarily because I’m enamored with the game, but since it looks to be the best of the bunch on what’s a tough handicapping day, for me at least. I’m sure there are others who love today’s slate. Both teams scored less than 90 points last game, making it the first game of the year where we see two teams who both failed to crack 90 points last game. Since the start of the 2017 season, these games have gone 5-10-1 in totals and they’re 2-8 dating back to 2004 if the total is at least 215.
Even though the Timberwolves lost to the Raptors last game, they did hold Toronto to 86 points and Minnesota has gone 2-4 in totals after holding a foe to 105 or fewer points, which is 10 points fewer than their season average. The problem for Minnesota on the road has been defense, as they allow 118.3 points, but the Knicks may not be the team to take advantage of their defensive deficiencies, although they have scored 120 points in each of their last two home games.
The Knicks are 4-11 in totals after a loss, so will give the under a shot here and hope one of the two teams has an off-shooting night.
2/20/21
We fell to 34-31 on the season last night, seeing a few too many points scored in the second half. Small slate of games today and something going on in the Lakers’ game, as the line and total have really dropped, so one I’ll just stay away from.
Sacramento at Chicago: The Kings opened -2.5 and the line has stayed there with Sacramento getting 57% of the early wagers, so you really wouldn’t expect to see anything more than a half-point move, if the number moves at all, so a pretty good opening number by the oddsmakers. This is just the second time the Kings have been favored on the road all season and the first time ended in disaster, as the Warrior won 137-106. The Bulls have been home underdogs nine times already and have gone 4-5 ATS, although they are 3-1 ATS when getting fewer than three points. I have the Kings winning 115-114, so pretty close to the line, but the trends support the Bulls here, as Chicago is 10-5 ATS after a loss and the Kings are just 4-11 ATS following a setback. Will take the Bulls +2.5 in this one.
Golden State at Charlotte: The Warriors opened 2 and are still there for the most part after getting 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has climbed from 230.5 to 234 with 60% of the wagers on the over, so a little bigger of a move than you’d expect to see. I have Charlotte winning, but the Warriors have fared well after a loss this season, going 8-5 ATS.
Phoenix at Memphis: The Suns have moved from -3 to -4 with 40% of the wagers, although the game did hit 4.5 and come back down slightly. I have the Suns winning by 5, so nothing really in this one.
Miami at Lakers: The Lakers opened -5 and the line dropped to 3 with pretty even betting and now the number has come back up to 3.5. The total has also dipped from 214 to 209.5 with 55% of the wagers on the under.
Washington at Portland: The Blazers have moved from 6 to 4.5 with a little less than 50% of the wagers in the game, while the total came out at 242 and has stayed there with pretty mixed betting. I have this one landing under the number, but no interest in taking a stand.
2/19/21
Much bigger slate of games for today after yesterday’s strange three-game slate. We’re 34-30 on the season, so need to get moving in the right direction.
Golden State at Orlando: The Warriors have moved from 5.5 to 4 with the betting being pretty well split down the middle. The Magic are just 3-6 as a home underdog this season and 5-5 ATS after a win. Golden State is 2-1 as an away favorite this season.
Atlanta at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 4 and the total has dipped slightly to 225.5. Boston opened 4.5 and have gotten the majority of the wagers in the game, but it still dropped slightly. Atlanta started off the season pretty competitively, but have gotten away from playing defense, so no surprise they’re struggled as of late. Think Atlanta gets back to playing so defense, so will take a shot on the under 225.5.
Toronto at Minnesota: The total on this one has moved from 229 to 226.5, while the line on the Raptors has dropped from 3.5 to 2.5. Definitely a bit of a letdown spot for the Raptors, who went into Milwaukee and won both games, but the line is now pretty cheap. The Timberwolves defeated the Raptors a few nights ago, so not really interested in taking Minnesota here, as a quick revenge matchup might be enough to get the Raptors not to take it easy here. Still, the Raptors have two games with the 76ers on tap, so just going to stay clear.
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened 11.5 and the line has dropped to 10.5 with Oklahoma City getting a small majority of the wagers. The Thunder won at home against Milwaukee as 11-point underdogs just five days ago, so not a whole lot of value with the visiting team.
Utah at Clippers: The Jazz are favored by 4 in a game that has seen pretty mixed betting while the total is 224.5. Utah won 114-96 two nights ago, as the Clippers led 51-46 at the half, only to see Utah run away in the second half.
2/18/21
A split last night, losing with the Timberwolves +5.5 in overtime to fall to 33-30 for the season, and now just a three-game schedule and nothing really looks all that appealing, so just one play tonight and not totally enamored with it.
Toronto at Milwaukee: The Bucks have moved from 6.5 to 6 with the Raptors getting the majority of the wagers in the game, while the total has moved from 233.5 to 235.5. The Raptors defeated the Bucks two days ago and Milwaukee is just 3-5 ATS when playing a team who beat them the last time they played and 5-5-1 after a loss this season. After a slow start the Raptors have come to life a little bit, going 6-3 their last nine games. I’m on both sides of the total and the side, so will just stay clear of this one.
Brooklyn at Lakers: Interesting one here, as the Lakers have remained at 2.5 with the betting pretty well split down the middle, while the total has dropped from 237.5 to 232.5 on mixed betting. A few players out for this one, but still tough to go against the Nets, who are a 13-1 totals run after a victory. But if there’s one team who can get the Nets out of their comfort zone, it could well be the Lakers. The most surprising thing about the Nets is that they play just slightly faster-paced than normal, ranking No. 8 in pace, but they’re so good offensively and so bad defensively, they have high-scoring games. The Lakers play a little slower than normal, ranking No. 23 and Los Angeles is No. 27 over the past 10 games. I might regret it, but going to take a shot on the under 232.5 in this one, not really because I like the play, but because I really don’t like the other two games one bit.
Miami at Sacramento: The Heat have moved from -3 to -1 with the Kings getting the majority of the wagers, but not quite as much as would warrant a 2-point move. The Heat lost in overtime last night, but do have a short trip from the Bay Area to Sacramento. Neither team is very good against the spread after a loss, and another game where I’m on both sides of the total. Wanted to take Miami but can’t quite pull the trigger.
2/17/21
We fell to 32-29 on the season when the Suns stopped playing at halftime, as the Nets rallied from a 20-point halftime deficit to get the win. So far it’s been either the college plays or the pro plays doing well and the other one not, which is why we’re a combined 78-75 in hoops, which doesn’t quite get the job done.
New York at Orlando: The Knicks are favored by 4 on the road and it’s just the third time New York has been an away favorite this season. The number opened at 4 and has stayed there with New York getting 58% of the wagers in the game. The total opened 210.5 and has moved to 210 with more than 60% of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 196 and 210, but the trends like the under, so will play under 210 for the first of two plays tonight. The Knicks are 4-10 in totals when they win the game and are 1-3 in totals when they’re favored, so you can tell it doesn’t happen much. New York is also 5-8 after a victory and 4-12 in totals on the road so enough there to take a shot on the game landing under the number.
Indiana at Minnesota: The Pacers opened -7 and the line is now down to 5.5 even though Indiana is getting 65% of the wagers in this one. The Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS playing with no rest and 2-3 straight-up with a pair of two-point losses, so Minnesota hasn’t really suffered much after playing the night before. The Timberwolves have covered six of their last seven after a loss, so going to take a shot on the Timberwolves plus the points in this one.
Miami at Golden State: The Heat opened 1 and now the Warriors are now favored by 1 after getting 55% of the wagers in the game. Golden State had moved to 1.5 when they were getting close to 60% of the wagers, but the line has dropped back down a bit as a little more Miami wagers came in. The line did flop to seeing Golden State favored early in the morning when the majority of the wagers were on the Heat, so perhaps a little sharp money on Golden State early but it really hasn’t continued.
2/16/21
We won with the Kings going over the total on Monday to move to 32-28 on the season and now have a small slate of games that got a little bit smaller with the postponement of the Spurs and Pistons.
Denver at Boston: The Celtics have dropped two in a row and four of their last five and find themselves favored by 2.5 over the Suns after opening -3. Boston has received 63% of the wagers in the game. The Suns are 9-7 ATS after a win, having covered their last three.
Toronto at Milwaukee: The first of two straight games between these two, the Bucks opened 6.5 and the line is down to 5.5 even with Milwaukee getting 80% of the wagers in the game. The number has come back up to 6 at a few betting outlets. Both teams have lost two straight games and favorites are just 9-14 ATS when each team lost its last two games this season, but 7-6 against the spread when the line is 5 or greater.
Lakers at Minnesota: The Lakers have moved from 7.5 to 6.5 in this one even though Los Angeles is getting 57% of the wagers in the game. The Lakers are 5-1 straight-up after a loss, but just 3-3 ATS. The Timberwolves are 3-6 straight-up as a home underdog, but they have 6-3 against the number in that role.
Brooklyn at Phoenix: The Suns opened -2 and have climbed all the way to 4.5 in a game that is seeing split betting down the middle. The Nets are in a bit of a tough situational spot, with away underdogs who won the previous night as an away favorite going 12-19-1 since the start of the 2018 season. The Nets had no trouble without Durant last night against Sacramento, but might be a tougher challenge against a solid Phoenix team that will play a little defense and not simply try to outscore Brooklyn.
2/15/21
A split in the NBA last night, as we’re 31-28 for the season and now have seven games on the slate, and there’s been plenty of line movement so far this morning.
Brooklyn at Sacramento: The Nets opened 4 and the line has stayed there with pretty even betting, while the total has moved from 239 to 243 even though there’s been more under wagers than over bets. The number is high, but going to take a shot on the over here. The Kings have averaged 232.5 points in their games after a win, while the Nets are seeing 239.1. With the average number of points in a game 223.8, think this one can get there over the number, although you have to worry about possible garbage time. This one was at 241 when I started writing and changed it to 242, and just now had to bump it up another point, so wrapping things and get this out there as soon as possible.
Chicago at Indiana: The Pacers have moved from 6.5 to 5.5 after getting close to two-thirds of the wagers, while the total has dropped from its opening of 229.5 to 226 even though the betting is pretty much split down the middle.
Miami at Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 3.5 but could be without Leonard and George, who are both listed as questionable in this one, while Dragic is out for the Heat. Too much uncertainty to want to get involved with this one.
Philadelphia at Utah: The Jazz opened as 5.5-point favorites and the number has already been bet up to 7.5, with a little more than 60% of the early wagers coming in on the Jazz. Can’t blame those backing the Jazz, as they’re playing better than anybody in the league right now, but there’s no trophy for having the league’s best record in February. The 76ers have dropped two straight.
2/14/21
Pretty big slate of NBA games for Sunday, where we snapped our skid and sit at 30-27 for the season.
Portland at Dallas: The Mavs opened -3.5 and the line has climbed to 5 with Dallas getting 38% of the early wagers in the game. Both teams have been playing better as of late, with the Blazers winning three straight and Dallas winning four in a row, although all of those wins came at home and the Mavs get to remain at home, while the Blazers take to the road. With McCullum out for Portland and Hood listed as questionable, a faster-paced game could favor the Mavs in this spot and that’s when they’ve been at their best, going 8-0 straight-up and 6-2 ATS when scoring 120 or more points, so going to take a shot on the Mavs -5.
Memphis at Sacramento: The Grizzlies opened 1.5 and the line is down to 1, with the Kings getting 60% of the early wagers in the game. Strictly a little system play in this one that says to take away favorites off a loss if they lost to the team they’re playing today the last time they met. Since the start of the 2018 season it’s gone 79-58-4 (57.7%) and with the Kings just 4-8 ATS off a loss this season, will go ahead and take Memphis for the final play of the day.
Minnesota at Toronto: The Raptors have moved from 9 to 8 after getting two-thirds of the wagers, while the total has climbed from 228 to 229.5. I have this one coming in a little bit under the number.
Lakers at Denver: The Lakers opened 3 and the line climbed to 3.5 for a bit, but has since dropped back down to 3 with LA getting 56% of the wagers in this one. The total has climbed slightly from 216.5 to 217 with the betting being split down the middle and I have this one at 218.5.
Milwaukee at Oklahoma City: The Bucks have moved from 10 to 11.5 after getting close to 70% of the wagers, while the total in this one has shot up from 225.5 to 229.5. The number did get up to 230, but has dropped a little bit, as some people come in and try to take shots on a 4-point middle. I have this at 230.5, so too close for comfort.
2/13/21
We’ve won a few in a row in college hoops, only to turn around and lose the NBA plays, so will look to get the pro plays back on track here. Small slate of games, so again just one play.
Miami at Utah: The Jazz have moved from 4.5 to 6 and I have Utah winning 112-102, so going to go ahead and take the Jazz here. The Jazz are playing a back-to-back after thumping Milwaukee last night, but Utah has gone 3-1 ATS in back-to-back spots this season and are 16-4 ATS after a win. The Heat are just 4-6 ATS after a win this season and 2-3 ATS when getting 6 or more points this season. Long-term, the Heat are in a bad spot, as teams who have won their last four games are 175-261-13 (40.1%) when getting 6 or more points and even worse recently, going 5-12 dating to the start of last season and 10-21-1 going back to the start of the 2018 season.
Philadelphia at Phoenix: The 76ers are favored by 1 and the line has held pretty steady on a good balance of wagers, while the total has dropped down to 222.5. I’m split on the total and have the Suns pulling out a two-point win, so nothing really happening in this one.
Indiana at Atlanta: The Pacers opened 1.5 and the line has stayed there with Indiana getting just 42% of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped from 226.5 to 224.5 with 60% of the wagers landing on the under and I have this one at 221.
Houston at New York: The Rockets opened as 1.5-point favorites and now this one is even after the Knicks received 58% of the wagers. I have New York winning by a couple and am split on the total, which opened at 209.5 but has since climbed to 212 with a little more than 70% of the early wagers landing on the over.
Brooklyn at Golden State: The Nets opened as 4-point favorites and Brooklyn has hit 4.5 at some sportsbooks after getting 58% of the early wagers in the game. The total opened at 243.5 and is now at 245 after 62% of the early wagers have been on the over. The Wizards and the Nets have the highest total so far this season at 245.5. The Nets are 5-1 in totals when the number is 240 or greater, while this is the first time Golden State has played to a total greater than 240.
2/12/21
Dropped to 29-26 on the season when the Warriors fell two points short of covering the number last night, as we had another rough final two minutes, being outscored 11-4.
Memphis at Lakers: The Lakers opened 7.5 and the line has dropped to 7 with the Lakers getting 70% of the early wagers, so going to take a shot on the Grizzlies here. The Lakers won both games at Memphis earlier this season and were favored by 9.5 and 10, so this line is definitely a little bit off. The Lakers are coming off a couple of hard-fought wins against Oklahoma City and have a game with Denver on tap, so not the best of spots for Los Angeles.
San Antonio at Atlanta: The Hawks opened 3.5 and the line has dropped to 2 with Atlanta getting roughly 55% of the early wagers in the game, so a bit of sharp money on the underdog, a role the Spurs have fared well in this season.
Oklahoma City at Denver: The Nuggets opened -12 in this one and the line is holding steady with the home team getting two-thirds of the wagers. OKC is battling some injury issues but the Nuggets do have the Lakers up next and can’t blame the players if they’re looking forward to that one a little bit.
Milwaukee at Utah: The best game of the night sees the Jazz favored by 2.5 after opening as 2-point favorites and getting 45% of the wagers. The line did climb to 3 earlier but has dropped back down slightly due to the number of bets coming in on the Bucks. The total has moved from 232.5 to 234 with a little more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over.
Cleveland at Portland: The Blazers opened -7 and the line has dropped to 3.5 even with the Blazers getting 65% of the wagers, so most likely somebody sitting the game out. The total has inches from 221.5 to 222 with more than 75% of the wagers coming in on the over.
2/11/21
An ugly 1-2 night in the NBA, as things got out of hand the last minute of the Clippers game, turning what looked to be a win into a loss after a 78-point fourth quarter, including 25 in the last 1:38. So dropped to 29-25 on the season and we have a smaller slate of games on tap for tonight.
Orlando at Golden State: The Warriors opened 5.5 in this one and they’ve been bet all the way up to Golden State -8 with 47% of the wagers in the game coming in on the home team. The Magic are just 4-11 ATS after a loss and I have Golden State winning 116-102, so will take the Warriors in this one.
Toronto at Boston: The Celtics opened 4.5 and the line has dropped to 3 despite Boston attracting close to two-thirds of the early wagers in the game. The total has moved from 222.5 to 220.5 with 60% of the wagers coming in on the over, although I don’t really see it, as my numbers and many of the trends are pointing to the over. The teams did play a 126-114 game last month, but the officials had a big hand in the final score, as Boston shot 34 foul shots and the Raptors had 38 free throws. Will respect the line move and just stay away.
Indiana at Detroit: The Pacers opened -5.5 and this one just hit 2.5 at the majority of sportsbooks, with Indiana getting close to 43% of the wagers. The total has dipped from 217.5 to 216.5 on pretty mixed betting.
Miami at Houston: The Heat have moved from -3 to -2 after getting 57% of the wagers in the game. The total has also dropped a couple of points and is now sitting at 215.
Philadelphia at Portland: The 76ers opened 4.5 and the line has climbed to 5.5 with the visitors getting 53% of the early wagers in the game. The total has moved from 228.5 to 229.5 with 57% of the early wagers on the over. My numbers are calling for this one to land under the number and would definitely lean that way but this is a bit of a tough one to get involved with, with Portland winning 121-105 on the road a week ago.
2/10/21
It was more of the same last night, winning the NBA play, but dropping the two college hoops plays. We moved to 28-23 in the NBA and will have a few plays in the pros tonight, which is a bit unusual.
Toronto at Washington: The Raptors opened -5.5 and the total opened 229.5 and Toronto is still 5.5, while the total has climbed to 233. The public is now jumping on the over, as the total started moving upwards with just 40% of the wagers on the over and now more than 70% of the wagers have landed on the over. Think it’s the right side, however, and even though I was burned with the Wizards over a few nights ago will give them another shot and take the over 233 in this spot.
LA Clippers at Minnesota: The Clippers opened -9 and the total was 226.5 and now Los Angeles is 10.5 and the total has dropped to 223. The Timberwolves have received the majority of the wagers in the game, so the upwards line movement a bit of a surprise, while the majority of the wagers on the total have come in on the over. I have this one at 220 and at 217, so will go ahead and take the under 223 here.
Charlotte at Memphis: The Grizzlies opened 4 and 226 and the line is holding at Memphis -4, even though we’ve seen the Hornets get 60% of the wagers here. The total has dropped to 224 with a little more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. I also have this one at 220 and 217, so will take the under here for the final play.
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers: The Lakers opened -10.5 and the line has climbed to 11.5 although we’re seeing Oklahoma City get a little more than 60% of the early wagers in the game. The total opened 218.5 and it is still there with more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. My numbers do have this one at 223 and 220, so just going to stay away from this one.
Milwaukee at Phoenix: The Bucks have moved up slightly, from 4 to 4.5, on a game that’s seen pretty even betting, while the total has climbed from 224.5 to 226.5 with 80% of the wagers on the over. I have it at 225 and 226.
2/9/21
We fell to 27-23 in the NBA on Monday and a decent slate of games for Tuesday, although not the greatest slate from a fan perspective.
Boston at Utah: Probably the best game of the night, this one saw the Jazz open as 4-point favorites and the line has moved to 5.5 even though Utah is getting about 37% of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped slightly from 220.5 to 220 even though we’re seeing close to two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. I have the Jazz winning this one by 12, so will go ahead and take Utah in this one.
Brooklyn at Detroit: The Nets are favored by 6.5 after opening -9.5 and getting 60% of the wagers. The line move likely has to do with Durant not playing in this one, as he’s been ruled out. I have Brooklyn winning by two and the game sneaking over the total.
New York at Miami: The Heat have moved from -8 to -6 with New York getting the slight majority of the wagers. The total has dipped from 208 to 207.5 even though we’re seeing the majority of the wagers on the over. I have the Heat winning by two and am split on the total, with one calling for the over and another liking this one to go under the total.
Golden State at San Antonio: The Spurs are favored by 1 and the total has dropped a little bit from 233 to 230 with 80% of the wagers on the under. Most of that probably has to do with the teams playing a low-scoring 105-100 game. The Spurs were favored by 1.5 and the total was 232.5 when the teams met last night. Wouldn’t be a total surprise to see this one land over the total, since teams don’t always play the same style in back-to-back games, but since I have a split on the total, with one set of numbers on the over and the other on the under, will just go ahead and stay away.
Orlando at Portland: The Blazers have moved from 4.5 to 6, as Lillard has been upgraded to probable. I have Portland winning this one 116-110 and my other method calls for it to sneak over the total, which has moved all the way down from 224.5 to 220 with 56% of the wagers on the under, so a bigger move than the betting would indicate.
2/8/21
Dropped the NBA play on Sunday to fall to 27-22 on the season and a little bit of a larger slate of games today than we had on Sunday.
Cleveland at Phoenix: The Suns have held at 7 for most of the morning, while a few sportsbook have already bumped the number up to 7.5. The total opened 216.5 and is now down to 214.5. I have this one at 209 and with the Suns going 2-3 in totals with no rest and 4-8-1 after a win, along with Cleveland’s 4-7-1 totals mark after a loss, while go ahead and take the under in this spot.
Houston at Charlotte: The Rockets have moved from 1.5 to 3 in this one after getting 68% of the wagers, while the total has climbed to 223.5. The Hornets did their job yesterday, while the Wizards struggled to score and it got worse during garbage time, which was most of the second half. The Rockets have been playing good defense since the Harden trade, while the Hornets have been scoring more as of late.
Oklahoma City at Lakers: The Lakers have moved from -12 to -10 this morning, even though James and Davis were listed as probable on the injury report. The two teams play again here Wednesday. The total opened 218.5 and has dropped to 216 with pretty even betting on both the over and the under.
Toronto at Memphis: The Raptors have moved from 1 to 2, while the total has inched up a bit after opening at 222.5 and is now 224. I have this one in the 222 range, so no hurry to get involved in this one.
Milwaukee at Denver: A pretty good game here, as the Bucks have moved from 3.5 to 4-point favorites while the total is up to 234. The Nuggets can play defense when they want to, but they have been a little lax with the stop unit this season. The Nuggets did win both games against the Bucks last year, so a bit of a revenge game for Milwaukee, who is playing its third game in four night, so a trip to Denver isn’t ideal. The Bucks did get a chance to play the bench a bit in the two games against the Cavs. My numbers are split on the total and have Milwaukee winning, so nothing really happening here.
2/7/21
We won our play here yesterday to make up for another loss in college hoops, which has been a struggle so far. Before the season began I would have expected to do better in college hoops, but hasn’t worked out that way. Small slate of games on this Super Bowl Sunday and all of them have early starting times.
Washington at Charlotte: The Wizards opened 2.5 and the line has dropped to 1.5, while the total has climbed from 235.5 to 237.5 with 52% of the wagers coming in on the over. This is one of those games where the most recent stats tell a much different story than the season-to-date stats, as using season numbers will have this one landing well under the total. But by using the last 10 games for both teams I get a projection of 238 and if using the last five contests I get a projection of 246, so going to go ahead and take the over in this one. The line has climbed higher than it should based on the betting and the Wizards are coming off a couple of dismal offensive efforts against the Heat and think they bounce back a little bit. The Wizards are 8-5 in totals after a loss, while the Hornets are 5-7, but 4-2 over the past three weeks, which is when they started scoring a bit more.
Miami at New York: The Heat opened 6 and the line has stayed there even though the Knicks are getting close to 60% of the wagers in the game. Home underdogs off a win and no rest are 8-4 ATS this season, but were just 7-10-1 last season. Last season also saw these teams go 16-2 in totals, but they’re just 5-7 this year, so a couple of trend reversals so far.
Sacramento at LA Clippers: The Clippers opened 8.5 and the number has held steady with the Kings getting nearly 60% of the wagers, while the total opened 230.5 and dropped to 228 even though we’re seeing more over wagers come in on the game. The Clippers are just 2-5 in totals this season when the number is 228 or higher, but the Kings are 7-4 and also 7-3 in totals following a victory.
2/6/21
Completely of the mark Friday, falling to 26-21 on the season and now faced with a bit of a tough card.
Golden State at Dallas: The Mavericks are favored by 4 in this one and you’d like to take them after they were just drilled by 31 points against the Warriors. While long-term home favorites who lost by 30 or more points against a foe last time are 57.1% over the years, they have dropped the last five games, so will just stay away from this one.
Toronto at Atlanta: The Raptors opened -6 and the line has dropped to 4.5 even though Toronto is getting close to 60% of the wagers in the game, so will go ahead and take a shot on Atlanta to get the ship righted after losing the first three games of their current homestand. The Hawks have been underdogs in the first three games and barring the last one against the Jazz, didn’t really play that poorly. The Raptors are coming off a win against the Nets last night.
Brooklyn at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 3.5 with news that Kevin Durant won’t play for Brooklyn and the total has held at 237.5. We’re starting to see more over wagers come in on the game, but the total has been holding steady. Embiid is listed as questionable for the 76ers.
Milwaukee at Cleveland: Interesting one here, as the two teams played here last night and the Bucks overcame a slow start to post a 123-105 victory. Hard to guess how much intensity Milwaukee will have for tonight’s game, as they didn’t come out too strong against the Cavs on Friday, as Cleveland led 63-60 at halftime before the Bucks came out and showed a little bit of defense in the second half. The Bucks are just 5-5 ATS after a double-digit win and 6-3-1 in totals, while the Cavs have gone 4-5 ATS and 3-6 in totals after a double-digit loss.
2/5/21
A split in the NBA on Thursday as we move to 26-20 on the season and we have a pretty large slate of games for Friday, although that doesn’t always translate to a number of decent wagers.
Minnesota at Oklahoma City: Minnesota is favored by 1 after opening 2.5 and the Thunder received the bulk of the wagers. The total opened 218.5 and has stayed there with a little bit more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the under. I made this one 225 and 228, but Minnesota is 7-8 after a loss and the Thunder are 2-5-1 after a win, so will stay away from this one.
Utah at Charlotte: The Jazz opened 8 and the line has pretty much stayed there, while the total has climbed slightly from 222.5 to 223. The Jazz are 6-10 in totals after a win and the Hornets are 4-7 in totals after a loss, so will take a shot on the under 223 in this one.
Toronto at Brooklyn: The Nets are favored by 4.5 and the total has come down slightly from 243.5 to 241 and I have a wide range on this one of 231 and 241. Brooklyn did open 5.5 and have received the majority of the wagers on the game, so the Raptors are getting a little bit of play.
Boston at LA Clippers: The Clippers have moved from 5 to 6.5 even though the Celtics have received a few more of the wagers. The total has dropped from 221 to 220 even though more than 80% of the wagers are coming in on the over.
Detroit at Phoenix: The Suns opened 9.5 and the line has dropped to 7.5 as the Pistons are getting two-thirds of the wagers in the game. The total has moved from 216 to 214 even though nearly two-thirds of the wagers have been on the over. I have this one 223, but will respect the reverse move and keep it to just the one play for today.
2/4/21
We moved to 25-19 on the season Wednesday and now have a bit of a smaller schedule than we’ve been seeing.
Denver at LA Lakers: The Lakers opened -6 and the line just dropped to 4.5 on pretty mixed betting, so going to go ahead and take the Nuggets +4.5, as I have this one even, but was hoping for 5 or 6 points with Denver. The Lakers are 8-6-1 ATS after a win this season, while Denver has gone 5-6. The Lakers are playing their first home game since Jan. 18, as their last seven games were on the road.
Portland at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 8.5 and I have them winning by 7, although that doesn’t fully account for the Blazers’ injury situation. With some many unknowns in this one, just going to stay away.
Golden State at Dallas: The Mavs have moved from 3.5 to 3 after getting 44% of the wagers here, while the total has shot all the up from 224.5 to 228.5 with more than 80% of the early wagers on the over. I have the total here at 221.
Utah at Atlanta: The Jazz have moved from -5 to -7.5 with 60% of the wagers, so the move is a little higher than it should be. I have the Jazz by 3 and the Hawks are in a fair situation regarding teams who failed to cover as home dogs last game and are home underdogs once again (16-11 ATS this year and 28-19-2 last year omitting the bubble games), but will stay clear of this one for the time being.
Houston at Memphis: The Grizzlies have moved from -1 to -2.5 after getting 56% of the wagers, while the total has dropped slightly from 224.5 to 224 with 70% of the wagers on the over. The Rockets are 4-5 in totals after a win and the Grizzlies are 1-4-1. I have this one at 215 and 218 and with Memphis going 0-2-1 in totals after allowing 120 or more, will go ahead and grab the under 224 in this one.
2/3/21
A tough loss with the under in the Clippers game on Tuesday, with 15 points scored in the final minute, as we fall to 24-19 on the year. You’re going to have those nights and nothing you can really do but march forward to the next day.
Indiana at Milwaukee: The Bucks are 8.5 and 232, while I have Milwaukee winning by 12 and totals of 226 and 228. The total has held at 232 with 55% of the early wagers coming in on the under.
Dallas at Atlanta: For the second straight game, the Mavs are getting some play, as the Hawks opened -1.5 and now Dallas is favored by 2 after getting 52% of the wagers in the game. The Mavs have lost six straight games, which puts them into one of my favorite NBA systems. Away favorites who have lost at least five straight games are 67-39-3 (63.2%) against the spread, although just 1-2 so far this season, with the Magic failing to cover the number in a couple of attempts. The system was 5-2 last year and 5-0 the year before. There isn’t really much difference in the results if the home team won or lost its last game, but will go ahead and take Dallas -2 for today’s play, as the Mavs fall into the system and have also received a bigger line move than the early betting would suggest.
Houston at Oklahoma City: The Rockets just thumped the Thunder here on Monday and now are favored by 6.5 but the total has dropped from its opening number of 223.5 to 221.5, which seems a little odds as the teams combined for 242 points Monday, with Houston scoring 136 of them. Houston was favored by 5 in that game, so you’re laying an extra 1.5 points in this one, while the total in that game was 224.5, so expected it to be a little closer to that one.
Minnesota at San Antonio: The Spurs opened -9 with a total of 223 and now San Antonio is favored by 8, while the total has climbed to 224.5. The Spurs are getting 63% of the early wagers in the game, so a slight reverse move on the spread, while the under has received 62% of the early wagers, so a slight reverse move there, as well. I have 225.5 and 228 on my totals projections.
2/2/21
We moved to 24-18 on the season last night and are faced with a bit of a tough schedule for Tuesday, where it’s a little hard to find the type of plays that we like.
Detroit at Utah: The Jazz opened -9.5 and the line has climbed all the way to 12.5 even though the Pistons have received 54% of the wagers in the game. A few shops have dropped the game down to 12 as I started writing. Double-digit favorites haven’t fared too poorly this season and I have the Jazz winning easy, but the Pistons are 9-5 ATS after a loss this season, so will just stay clear of this one.
LA Clippers at Brooklyn: The Clippers are favored by 1.5 after opening as the underdog and getting 54% of the wagers in this one, while the total is at 242.5. I might feel stupid when this one is finished, but going to go ahead and take a shot on the under. I have this one at 231 and the Clippers are 0-3 in totals this year when the number is 230 or higher, making this the highest total they’ve played to. The Clippers play decent defense and have to hope they come to play, as opposed to just running up-and-down the court with the Nets. Brooklyn is just the fifth team in the last 19 years to score 140 or more in regulation and lose.
Memphis at Indiana: We have some conflicting opinions in this one, as the Pacers opened -6 and the line is down to 5 with Memphis getting 65% of the wagers in the game. The Grizzlies have been solid away from home this season, so real surprise there. The total on the game has moved from 221 to 223.5 and I have this one at 224 and 225, so would agree with the move, but not enough to make a play on.
Boston at Golden State: The Celtics opened 2.5 and the number has stayed there with Boston getting 57% of the wagers in the game, while the total has inched upwards a little bit to 226 with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. I have Golden State winning and the game sneaking under the total, but both projections are pretty close to the lines, so will stay clear.
2/1/21
We moved to 23-18 on the season on Sunday and now are faced with a pretty good-sized slate of games for Monday. There are a couple that grab our attention, so we’ll see what we can come up with.
Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta: The Lakers opened -6.5 and the line has dropped to 5.5 with the Hawks getting close to 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has moved from 220 to 218 with 60% of the bets coming in on the over. I have this one at 214 and 205, with the Hawks staying under the number. Atlanta is 5-4 ATS and in totals after a win and covered their lone game as a home dog this season, while the Lakers are 7-6-1 ATS and 4-10 in totals after a win. The Lakers are just 2-10 in totals as an away favorite this season, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the under 218.5 in this one.
Houston at Oklahoma City: The Rockets have moved from 5.5 to 5-point favorites after getting 61% of the bets, while the total has moved from 222 to 224 with 38% of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 228 and 234 with the Rockets covering. The Thunder are 6-3 in totals after a loss and 3-2-1 as a home underdog, where they’ve lost all six games and are just 1-5 ATS, so a little hard to put a lot of faith in Oklahoma City here. Houston is just 2-6 in totals after a win, but 2-0 when an away favorite.
Phoenix at Dallas: The Mavs opened -1 and have moved to -3 despite getting just 38% of the early wagers in the game. Dallas is just 4-7 ATS after a loss this season, while the Suns are 4-5 ATS after a win. Dallas has dropped five straight games, so no real interest to jump into this one, especially with the numbers liking Phoenix to win the game, making this one pretty much of an easy pass.
Minnesota at Cleveland: The Cavs opened -5 with a total of 218 and this one has already moved to 4.5 and the total has climbed to 219 with more than 80% of the early wagers on the over. We had the under between these two last night in Minnesota and now have projections of 225 and 227, so agree with the line move.
1/31/21
We fell to 22-18 on the season as I read too much into Charlotte’s promise to play defense against Milwaukee, although it was more a case of the Bucks playing dismal on the defensive side that did the wager in. Charlotte made 11 of their first 14 3-points and that was pretty much it.
Cleveland at Minnesota: The Cavaliers opened 2 and 220 and now Cleveland is favored by 3 with a total of 218.5. Cleveland has gotten nearly two-thirds of the wagers in the game, so the move to 3 isn’t that surprising, although the total has dropped with more than 70% of the bets on the over, so will go ahead and take the under 218.5 in this one.
Utah at Denver: The Jazz have moved from a 1-point underdog to a 1.5-point favorite after getting 52% of the wagers in the game, while the total has dropped from 220 to 219.5 with most of the wagers coming in on the over. My numbers have this one at 223, however, so will just stay clear of the game.
Orlando at Toronto: The Magic made the short trip along I-4 to Tampa for this one, which is seeing some sharp action on the under, as the total has moved from 218 to 215.5 even with more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 218, so will stay away.
Brooklyn at Washington: The Nets are favored by 7.5 on the road after opening as 9-point favorites and see the Wizards get a small majority of the wagers. The total has held pretty stead on mixed betting. This is the fifth game of the season to have a total of 240 or higher and three of the first four have gone over. The Nets were involved in the first four games, including a game against Washington earlier this month when the Wizards won 123-122 to send the game over the total of 242.
1//30/21
Eight games on the NBA schedule for Saturday, as we’re 22-17 on the season. Not a great slate from a betting perspective, so we’ll have just one play for the day.
Milwaukee at Charlotte: The Bucks are favored by 7 in this one, having opened 7.5 and received more than 80% of the early wagers in the game, so the Hornets are getting a little bit of action. The total here opened 227.5 and is now 230.5 with 62% of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 223 and with the Hornets going 2-5 in totals after a win, will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one. Both teams played last night, a situation that has gone 10-5 in totals so far this year, but think the Hornets are smart enough to avoid a running game with Milwaukee. If Charlotte looks to match Milwaukee point-for-point this one could get ugly, both for the Hornets and for our wager.
Houston at New Orleans: The Rockets are now favored by 1 with a total of 223 and while both numbers have this one going over the total, Houston is 1-6 in totals after a win, having played decent defense, allowing 103.9 points per game after a victory, compared to 111.7 after a loss.
Portland at Chicago: The Bulls opened 2.5 and the line is still there despite the Blazers getting close to 70% of the wagers in the game. Portland has impressive away numbers, although a lot of that has to do with 25-point road wins at Golden State and Sacramento, which distorts their overall numbers a little bit.
Sacramento at Miami: The Heat opened 6 and the line is now 5.5 with Miami now getting two-thirds of the wagers in the game. I have Miami winning this one by 3, so the numbers agree with the move. The total has held at 225 and both of my numbers are at 223.
Detroit at Golden State: The total in this one opened at 225 and is now 223.5 even though we’re seeing 70% of the wagers come in on the over of this game. My numbers like the over, but have to respect the money coming in on the under and will just stay away from this one.
1/29/21
A decent-sized slate of games in the NBA today, although a few have question marks, so we’ll just take a quick look at some of the games on the schedule. We’re 21-17 for the year, so still have a bit of catch-up to after our recent skid.
Indiana at Charlotte: The Pacers moved from 4 to 3.5 point favorites after getting 60% of the wagers. The total has moved from 220.5 to 222 with 55% of the wagers on the over. I have the total here at 212 and 217 and the Pacers winning by 4.
Sacramento at Toronto: The Raptors moved from 6.5 to 5.5 after getting a little more than 60% and the total has climbed from 228.5 to 229.5 after roughly 60% of the wagers came in on the under, so a couple of small stands on the Kings and the over, which makes sense, as if the Kings get the cover you’d expect it to be a high-scoring game.
Milwaukee at New Orleans: The Bucks have moved to 7.5 and the total is 230.5, while I’m split on the total, with one over projection and one under projection. I have Milwaukee winning, but not covering the spread.
Cleveland at New York: The Cavaliers have moved from an underdog to a 2-point favorite, even after getting fewer than 40% of the wagers in the game, while the total has been bet from 205.5 to 209 with more than 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 206.5 and will take a stab on the under in this one. There have been seven games so far this season to see a total of less than 210 and six of them have landed under the number, so will take a shot on the trend to continue.
1/28/21
Just four games on the NBA slate for tonight, so we’ll see what we can come up with, as we moved to 20-17 last night when we managed to sneak under the number in the Jazz game.
LA Clippers at Miami: Lots of players out or questionable in this one, where the Heat are favored by 4 and the total is 214.5. For the Clippers, Leonard, George and Beverly are out, while the Heat have Herro out and Dragic and Butler both questionable. No need to get involved with this one.
Lakers at Detroit: The Lakers are favored by 9.5 and the total is 214.5. The Lakers lost to the 76ers last night and LA is 3-1 ATS and 2-2 in totals after a loss, while the Pistons are 8-5 ATS and in totals after a loss. The Lakers are 2-0 after dropping two straight against the number and have the Celtics up next, so not an ideal spot for them. The Pistons are 6-4 ATS at home, while going just 3-7 straight up and are 6-2 ATS as a home dog.
Golden State at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 1 and the total here is 220.5. The Suns could be without Booker, who is their leading scorer, as he’s listed as questionable. The Suns have dropped five of six and their last three, all of which were at home. The Warriors just thumped Minnesota in back-to-back games, but think the Suns are the right side here, even without Booker, so will take a shot on Phoenix in this one.
Portland at Houston: The Rockets have moved from 2-point favorites to 4.5-point favorites with 56% of the wagers, while the total has bounced around a little and is at 228, which is pretty much where it opened. The Blazers will be without Covington and CJ McCollum, while Wood was upgraded to probable for the Rockets. Portland has been decent on the road, going 4-2 straight-up and against the spread, while they’re 3-3 ATS and in totals after a loss. The Rockets are 1-5 in totals after a win.
1/27/21
We split last time out to break our losing skid, but still are just 19-17 on the season, so will see what we can come up with here today.
Dallas at Utah: Solid game here, where the Jazz are favored by 2.5 with a total of 222. The Jazz opened 4 and have gotten more than 60% of the wagers, while the total opened 225.5 and has dropped despite 55% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 218 and 220 on the totals, and with Dallas 3-5 in totals after a win and the Jazz 4-8, will go ahead and take the under in this one.
Detroit at Cleveland: The Cavs are favored by 3 and the total is 214, while both numbers have this one going well over the total with projections of 225.5 and 229. But the under is getting some sharp action, as the game opened 214.5 and dropped a half-point despite more than 80% of the wagers coming in on the over. The Cavs are 2-5-1 in totals after a loss, so that will keep me off the total, along with the betting.
Oklahoma City at Phoenix: The Suns are favored by 7 with a total of 216, while I have Phoenix winning by 8 and a pair of 222 projections on the total. This total has has dropped despite more than two-thirds of the bets coming in on the over. The Suns are 4-2 ATS after a loss and 3-3 in totals, while the Thunder have gone 1-4-1 in totals after a victory.
Minnesota at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 9 and the total is 228.5, while Golden State just won 130-108 here against Minnesota a few days ago. The Warriors are 2-6 in totals after a win and the Timberwolves are 6-5 after a loss. Teams who scored 130 or more points the last time they faced a team have gone just 10-28-1 in totals in the rematch, so the trends would lean to the under, although my totals projections are split on this one.
1/24/21
Still stinking it up, both in college and the NBA, so will look to break the skid that has us 18-16 after being 18-10 a few days back.
Toronto at Indiana: The Pacers are favored by 1.5 and the total is 219, as this one of two games where we’ve seen more under wagers than over bets. The other game, Atlanta at Milwaukee, has seen the total move from 235 to 230, while this one has just moved half a point despite there being more than 70% of the wagers on the under. I have this one at 227, so going to take a shot on the over in this one.
New York at Portland: The Blazers have moved from -5 to -4 after receiving 55% of the wagers and I have New York winning this one by 4, so will take the Knicks +4 for today’s final play. The Knicks have a better scoring margin than Portland, although part off that has to do with Portland getting waxed at home by the Spurs last game. Still, should be a competitive game and the points could come into play.
Charlotte at Orlando: The Magic are down to 1-point favorites after opening 3.5 and seeing the betting pretty much split down the middle, so the wise guys on the Hornets to an extent. The total has held at 214 for quite a while.
Washington at San Antonio: The Wizards return to action, although San Antonio is favored by 7 after opening as 5.5-point favorites and the betting is pretty much split down the middle. The total hasn’t really moved all that much and is still 231. Both the numbers I ran are calling for an over, but the Wizards have been off quite a while.
Cleveland at Boston: The Celtics have moved from 7-point favorites down to 6 on mixed betting, while the total is now starting to drop a bit, moving from 214.5 to 213.5 on even betting. I have this one at 210.5, so the downward move makes a bit of sense.
1/23/21
Still stinking it up, falling to 18-15 on the season. Running a little late, so will just look at a couple of the games.
Philadelphia at Detroit: The 76ers opened 7.5 with a total of 219.5 and the line is now Philadelphia -7 with a total of 218. The 76ers have received more than 60% of the wagers and 57% of the totals bets have been on the over, so will take a shot on the under 218 in this one.
New Orleans at Minnesota: The Pelicans have moved from from the opening number of 6.5 all the way to New Orleans -8 even though they’ve received just 32% of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped a point from 221.5 to 220.5.
Golden State at Utah: The total on this one has shot up five points, moving from 223 to 228, while the spread has inched up from 7 to 7.5. The Warriors haven’t been that great on the road, owning a scoring margin of -10.4 away from home, while the Jazz are themselves at home, outscoring opponents by 6.8 points.
Lakers at Chicago: The Lakers have moved from -9 to 9.5 even though Chicago is getting close to two-thirds of the early wagers in the game. The total has dropped slightly, moving from 227 to 226.5, with close to 60% of the wagers on the over.
Denver at Phoenix: A huge move in this one, as Denver is now favored by 2.5 after Phoenix opened -1.5. The game has moved all the way to 3 at a couple of sportsbooks. The total has dropped from 219 to 217.5 even though we’ve been seeing more wagers come in on the over.
1/22/21
The downward spiral continued, bring back shades of two years ago, where we started out on fire and then ran into a brick wall. We’re now 18-14 on the season after dropping four in a row after a high-scoring first quarter pretty much did us in. A few quarters under 50 points gave us a little hope entering the fourth quarter, but it was another high-scoring quarter, which did us in.
Brooklyn at Cleveland: The Nets have moved from -10 to 7.5, while the total has dropped four points to 224. Going to stay away from this one due to the uncertainty, since lines don’t typically move like that unless there are some injuries/rest/suspension, especially with the Cavs having a couple of players who are questionable for the game.
Dallas at San Antonio: The Mavs are favored by 2.5, which is they opened even though nearly 70% of the wagers in the game are coming in on the Mavericks. The total has dropped from 224 to 222 even though we’ve seen 56% of the bets come in on the over. Will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one.
New York at Sacramento: The Kings have moved from -3.5 to -4 even though New York is getting the majority of the wagers. The total has moved a half-point to 218.5 with nearly three-quarters of the bets coming in on the over.
Oklahoma City at LA Clippers: The Clippers have moved from -12.5 to 13.5 even though they’re getting just 42% of the early wagers in the game. Double-digit favorites are 15-5-1 ATS on the season so far.
1/21/21
The dreaded underdog overtime loss last night with the Pistons, who ended up losing by 8 in the extra session. Third loss in a row, dropping us to 18-13 on the season, which is why the NBA is tough to come out ahead over the long run, as there are plenty of games that could go either way and we’ve had a few go against us the past few nights.
Small slate of games for Thursday, so was able to look at them a little bit more closely and have one play.
Lakers at Milwaukee: The game of the night has seen the Bucks move from -2.5 to -1 even though the betting on the game is pretty well split. The Lakers have been a good road team this year, going 7-0 with a +14.4 scoring margin. The Lakers do play better defense away from home, so if you look at numbers, you’ll likely be on the under. Surprisingly, both teams come into this one off losses, so not sure if both weren’t looking ahead a little bit. The total has moved from 229.5 to 229 with close to two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over.
New York at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 4.5 and the total has held at 215.5. Golden State opened 5.5 and the line has dropped a little despite the Warriors getting most of the wagers. Running numbers on this one called it 102-99 for Golden State. With the Knicks being 0-6 in totals after a win and the Warriors 1-6 after coming away with a victory, have to go ahead and take the under in this one. Teams who scored more than 120 points their previous game are going under 55.3% of the time so far this season and if the total is under 220, totals are just 6-13.
New Orleans at Utah: The Jazz opened -7 and have stayed there with two-thirds of the wagers in the game coming in on the home team, while I have the Jazz winning by five. Utah is 2-7 in totals after a win, although we had the under a few nights ago and were done in by a 60-point fourth quarter, with plenty of scoring in garbage time.
1/20/21
Have dropped a couple in a row here to fall to 18-12 on the season, as garbage time got the best of us last night in the Utah game. Will look to get headed in the right direction again.
Boston at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened -5.5 and the line has dropped to 4.5, as the Celtics have received roughly two-thirds of the wagers so far. The total has shot up from 216.5 to 220 with more than 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over.
Brooklyn at Cleveland: The Nets moved from -9 to -10, while the total has shot up in this one as well, moving from 222 to 225.5 with more than 80% of the wagers.
Detroit at Atlanta: The Hawks opened as 6.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to Atlanta -5 even though the Hawks have received 58% of the early wagers in the game. The Pistons are 3-10 straight-up, but 7-5-1 against the spread, which is all we’re really concerned with. Detroit is 6-3 against the number after a straight-up loss. The Hawks are just 3-5 ATS as a favorite this season, so will take a shot on the Pistons to keep this one close and grab the points.
Memphis at Portland: An interesting game here, as Portland is favored by 1 with a total of 223, which is the second-lowest total the Blazers have played to this season. The total opened 223 and hasn’t moved despite more than 80% of the wagers coming in on the over. The Grizzlies are 2-2-1 in road totals and the Blazers are 3-5-1 in home totals, so going to take a stab on the under 223. Might be a sucker wager, but I’ll go ahead and bite.
1/19/21
Fell to 18-11 on the season, when the Bucks couldn’t get there against the Nets in an entertaining game, but always much more entertaining when you’re on the right side. Just two games on the slate for today, so a quick look at a few trends that have developed this season.
Favorites are struggling a bit, going 87-104-4, while totals are pretty close to that record, with just 45.3% of the games landing over the total so far. Away favorites have performed better, going 40-37-2, meaning home favorites are 47-67 (41.2%). The exception to the rule has been larger favorites, as favorites of 10 or more are 13-5-2 ATS and favorites of 9 or more have gone 17-9-2.
Oklahoma City at Denver: The Nuggets opened as 9-point favorites and the line has climbed to 9.5 with Denver getting 52% of the early wagers in the game. The total has climbed a half-point to 221 with two-thirds of the wagers landing on the over.
New Orleans at Utah: The Jazz have moved from 5.5 to 6 after getting 40% of the wagers in the game, while the total has dropped all the way to 217.5 after opening 220. The under is getting 55% of the wagers, so the move is larger than that would typically suggest. With Utah going 1-7 in totals after a win and teams (New Orleans) who scored 125 or more points last game going 23-31-1 (42.6%) will take the under here, even though we’ve lost a bit of the value.
1/18/21
We climbed to 18-10 on the season on Sunday, but I did drop my two college plays for an ugly 1-2 day. A few early start for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, so we’ll see what we can come up with for Monday.
Orlando at New York: The Magic have moved from -1 to -2 with betting pretty much split down the middle. The Knicks waxed Boston yesterday and teams who won their previous game by at least 30 points are just 4-7 ATS.
Minnesota at Atlanta: The Hawks are 7.5 and the total has dropped from 228.5 to 227.5 even though we’re seeing a few more over wagers. The Hawks have seen their last eight land under the total.
San Antonio at Portland: Big move here, as the Spurs have gone from a 1-point dog to a 2-point favorite with 40% of the wagers. The total climbed a half-point with 75% of the wagers on the over.
Dallas at Toronto: The Raptors have moved from -4 to -5 with betting being pretty much split down the middle. Tempting to take Dallas, but the line movement will just keep me away from this one.
Milwaukee at Brooklyn: The game of the day sees the Bucks favored by 2 and the total all the way at 239. It’s the highest Milwaukee total of the year, while the Nets are 2-1 in totals when the number is that high. The Bucks have been coasting through much of the season, but think they’ll look to make a statement that they’re still the best in the East and will take a shot on the Bucks in this one. The Bucks are just the second team this season to have won their last two games while failing to cover the spread in either one.
Golden State at LA Lakers: The Lakers have moved from -10 to 8.5 even though they’re getting the majority of the wagers in the game. The total has climbed from 225 to 226.5 with 59% of the wagers landing on the over.
1/17/21
We moved to 17-10 on the season when the Magic were able to get the cover against the Nets and now are looking at a bit smaller of a schedule.
New York at Boston: The Celtics opened 6.5 and the line moved to 7.5 and has come back down to 7, with close to 60% of the wagers coming in on New York. Wanted to take New York here, but with the public on the Knicks and the line not quite where I wanted, will just pass on this one.
Chicago at Dallas: The Mavs have moved from 7.5 to -7 after getting just one-third of the wagers here. Dallas is 3-1 after a loss this season, while the Bulls have covered 5 of their last 6 and beat Dallas earlier this year.
Philadelphia at Oklahoma City: The 76ers have moved from -4 to 2.5 in this one, with Oklahoma City getting 55% of the bets, so a slightly bigger move than we should be seeing.
Utah at Denver: The Jazz are getting some play in this one, as Denver opened -3 and now the line is down to 1 with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on Denver. The total opened 219 and has stayed there with more than 75% of the wagers on the over, so will go the other way and take a shot on the under in this one.
New Orleans at Sacramento: The Pelicans have moved from -2 to -2.5 on pretty mixed betting, while the total has dropped from 230 to 226.5 with more than 70% of the wagers on the under. Trends are split in this one, as New Orleans scored just 95 points last game and teams who scored 95 or fewer last game are just 11-31-1 in totals this season, while the Kings are 5-2 in totals after a loss, so will just stay away. Neither team scored more than 100 last game and games involving two teams who scored 100 or fewer are 2-8 in totals this year.
1/16/21
Dropped to 16-10 on the season with a clunker on the Cavs game, as a high-scoring second-quarter did me in. A tough schedule for Saturday, so will see what we can do.
Houston at San Antonio: The Spurs have moved from 6.5 to 7 in what is a quick revenge game for them, as the Rockets won their first game without Harden. The total here has dropped from 219.5 to 217.5.
Orlando at Brooklyn: The Nets are favored by 9 in this one and the Magic are reeling. Orlando has lost four straight games and none of them have been particularly close. Going to go ahead and give Orlando a shot in this one and look for them to play a little better than they have, in part due to the circus of the Nets just picking up Harden.
Charlotte at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 7 after just having pulled out a close three-point here on Thursday. The Raptors just aren’t playing that well and a little tough to lay points with them in this one.
Philadelphia at Memphis: The 76ers have moved from -3.5 to -1 on the road in this one, while the total has moved slightly to 220.5 at the majority of sportsbooks.
Atlanta at Portland: The Blazers have moved from 5.5 to 4.5 even though Portland is getting more than 70% of the early wagers in this one, which is enough to keep me off of them in a spot I was giving the Blazers a look. The total has dropped from 237 to 234.5 with more than 70% of the wagers coming in on the under, as Atlanta’s offensive has quite been what some people were calling for earlier this season.
1/15/.21
We moved to 16-9 on the season when the Pacers won in Portland and now have a decent-sized slate of games, with a few decent ones on tap.
New York at Cleveland: The Knicks opened -2.5 and the line is now Knicks -2, while the total has dropped quite a bit, going from 203 to 197.5 even though most of the wagers have come in on the over. The first-half total is 100 and I’m going to take a shot on the under for the first half. I have this one 48-44 in favor of the Cavs. Both teams have labored to score in the first half recently, with New York scoring 43.8 points and the Cavaliers averaging just 42 points over their last five games.
Orlando at Boston: The Magic opened -1 and the Celtics are now favored by 3 in a pretty big line move, as the Celtics return to action after the team’s Covid issues.
Memphis at Minnesota: The Timberwolves opened -3.5 and the line has dropped to Minnesota -2 even though the home team is getting two-thirds of the wagers in the game. It’s a quick revenge game for Minnesota, but Memphis has won three straight.
New Orleans at Lakers: Another game with a reverse move, as the Lakers have moved from -8.5 and moved to 10 even though Los Angeles is just getting 37% of the early wagers in the game. The total opened 222 and dropped to 218.5 even with more than three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over.
1/14/21
We dropped our replacement play Wednesday to fall to 15-9 on the season. The Suns game was postponed about 10 minutes after I posted, so took a shot on the Nets under, but a few too many points in the second half. A bit of a tough card for Thursday.
Miami at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened -11 and the line has dropped to 10.5 with Miami getting 58% of the wagers. The total has climbed from 222.5 to 223.5 with about three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over.
Charlotte at Toronto: The Raptors have moved from -7 to -9 in another game played at Amalie Arena. It’s a little hard to lay that type of number with Toronto, who really isn’t playing all that well right now. The total has dipped slightly from 220.5 to 219.5.
Houston at San Antonio: The Spurs have moved from -6 to -7 in a game that has seen pretty even betting. The loss of Harden will hurt, although it’s not as though he was helping the team win much. Houston will be better off in the long run with the four first-round picks and the big man from the Pacers, but it will take a bit of time.
Golden State at Denver: The line has moved from Nuggets -6 to Denver -5 on pretty mixed betting. The number does seem a little bit low. The total has dipped three and a half points on pretty mixed betting.
Indiana at Portland: The Blazers are -3 and the line has held there with the Pacers getting a slight majority of the wagers. A few of the trends point to Indiana, so will take a shot on the road dog in this one for today’s play.
1/13/21
Managed to hang on with the under in the Lakers game to move to 15-8 on the season and now we’re faced with another day that sees a few postponed games. The league is stepping up its COVID-19 protocols, so hopefully they’ll be able to get the number of cases down a bit.
Our lone play for the day was just postponed, so back again with a quick look at a few others games on today’s slate.
Milwaukee at Detroit: The Bucks moved from 11.5 to 10.5 and the total dropped from 227.5 to 226.5. The Bucks are getting the majority of the wagers in the game.
Brooklyn at New York: This one opened Brooklyn -5 and 218.5 and the line has climbed to Nets -6 and the total has climbed to 219.5 after 65% of the wagers came in on the over. Teams who scored fewer than 100 points their previous game are just 17-35-2 in totals. If the total is 225 or higher, those teams have gone 9-6-1 in totals, meaning those 224.5 and lower are just 8-29-1 in totals, so will take a shot on the under 219.5 in this one.
Memphis at Minnesota: The total in this one has climbed from 220 to 221.5 even though we’ve only seen 51% of the early wagers come in on the over, which is enough to make me a little hesitant to take the under in this one, even though it also falls into the same 8-29-1 over/under situation listed above.
Portland at Sacramento: The Blazers opened -6 and the line has dropped to 3.5 with the betting split down the middle, while the total on the game has climbed slightly to 236.5 with pretty good two-way action there, as well.
1/12/21
The daily guessing game that is known as the NBA has already seen one game postponed today, but the others look to be good to go. We moved to 14-8 when the Raptors got the cover in Portland.
Miami at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 7 in this one and the total has climbed slightly to 209.5. The Heat are going to be missing a number of players, while Philadelphia hadn’t turned in an injury report as of Monday night. The 76ers were also fined $25,000 for a violation of injury reporting protocols, but with a game on Monday aren’t required to report injuries for tonight’s game until later today.
Utah at Cleveland: Utah has moved from -9 to 10.5 on pretty mixed betting, while the total has dropped from 211.5 all the way to 205. Two-thirds of the totals wagers have come in on the over.
Denver at Brooklyn: This one is even with pretty mixed betting after the Nets opened -1. The total here has climbed from 228 to 231 with 63% of the early wagers landing on the over.
Lakers at Houston: The Lakers opened -3.5 and the line has climbed to 5.5, even though the betting has been pretty much right down the middle. The total opened at 223 and is down to 222 with 75% of the wagers coming in on the over, so I’ll look to go the other way and take the under in this one. The Lakers are 0-3 in totals after scoring 120 or more points this season and 1-6 following a victory. Away favorites are 8-11-1 in totals after scoring more than 120 points.
1/11/21
Dropped to 13-8 on the season when the Clippers didn’t put forth much effort against New York in a game where they closed even higher than we grabbed them at. Tough slate today, with several unknowns, as the NBA injury list is getting pretty lengthy.
Toronto at Portland: The Blazers opened -4 and the line has moved to 5, while the total on this one has dropped from 233 to 230.5. This is a spot that looks pretty good for the Blazers, but going to go the other way and take the Raptors, who have been a disappointment so far this year. Toronto is just 2-7 straight-up and against the spread and is coming off a loss at Golden State last night. Teams playing with no rest following a loss have gone 15-9-1 this season, while teams in Portland’s situation of having won their last two games are 20-34 ATS this year. The Blazers rolled over Sacramento in their last game and teams coming off a 20-point or more win are just 11-17 against the spread this season and 3-9 ATS if they won by more than 25. With the trends all pointing towards the Raptors will take a shot on Toronto +5 in this one.
Memphis at Cleveland: Memphis has climbed all the way to 2.5 after the Cavs opened -2, but the road team is getting 90% of the early wagers in the game. Hard to disagree with those backing Memphis, but in no hurry to jump on the bandwagon of this one either.
Indiana at Sacramento: A game that has also seen a huge move, the Pacers opened -2 and the line has jumped to 5.5 with the Pacers getting 65% of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped all the way from 233 to 227 with the majority of the wagers on the under, but nothing that would call for a 6-point line move.
1/10/21
We moved to 13-7 on the season Saturday, which was the lone bright spot of the day. The COVID list is climbing for a number of teams and is something that should be checked daily.
Utah at Detroit: The Jazz moved from 6.5 to 8.5 even though they’re getting just 40% of the wagers, while the total has moved from 216.5 to 219.5.
Chicago at LA Clippers: The Clippers have moved from -9.5 to -11 even though Chicago is getting 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped from 226 to 221.5. Going to take a stab on the Clippers in this one due to the Bulls having a few COVID cases.
Oklahoma City at Brooklyn: The Nets dropped from 9.5 to 8.5 in this one, while the total has climbed from 220 up to 226. Irving is officially listed as a game-time decision but think he will be in the line-up based on the move with the total.
Miami at Boston: The Heat have moved from 3.5 to 7.5 recently, so have to think the Celtics are going to be without several players who were listed as a game-time decision.
LA Lakers at Houston: The Lakers have moved from -4 to -3 even though they’re getting more than 60% of the wagers in the game, while the total has climbed 4.5 points with 60% of the wagers on the under.
Toronto at Golden State: The Raptors have moved from 2 to 3-point favorites on pretty mixed betting, while the total has climbed four points to 233.5.
1/9/21
We’re seeing a lot of line movement Saturday morning as word comes out regarding who will be playing tonight and who will not, with a few of the moves pretty big. We were ahead of the biggest move last night in the Brooklyn game, as Memphis went from +4.5 to +2 and ended up closing -1 in their victory over the Nets.
Denver at Philadelphia: The Nuggets have moved from -3 to -5.5 due to the COVID problems of Philadelphia. Who plays will remain to be seen, but the team does need eight players to be suited up for the game to take place. The possibility of it being canceled will keep me away from this one.
Miami at Washington: The Heat have climbed to -6.5 in this one, while the total is down a point to 230. Miami is 2-4-1 in totals, while Washington is 6-3.
Atlanta at Charlotte: The Hawks have climbed to -5.5 and the total is at 227.5. Atlanta was expected to be a scoring machine this year but haven’t scored 115 points in their last four games and are 2-6 in totals this year.
Phoenix at Indiana: The Pacers have moved from 2.5 to 3.5-point favorites and the total has dropped a little, moving from 217 to 215.5 with more than 60% of the wagers on the over. The Suns are jut 2-7 in totals this season.
San Antonio at Minnesota: The Spurs have moved from -6 to -5 in this one, which is the first of a back-to-back in Minnesota. Towns is listed as questionable for this game after being injured in the second game of the year. San Antonio is getting a little more than 60% of the wagers this game, so will take a shot on Minnesota, as road favorites off a win are just 10-15-1 this season.
Cleveland at Milwaukee: The Bucks have gone from 15.5 to 12.5 in this one and the total is 222, which is the lowest Milwaukee has seen this year. The Bucks are 2-0 this year when the total is 225 or lower, but were just 12-21 a year ago.
1/8/21
Have dropped the last two here to fall to 11-7 on the season in the NBA and 28-22 overall in hoops, which is 56%, so no complaints so far. Do need to get the NBA plays back on track and will introduce stats into the equation in the next day or two. We’ve seen a few good-sized reverse moves today.
Phoenix at Detroit: The Suns have moved from 6.5 to -7 with pretty mixed betting, while the total has dropped from 218.5 to 216.5 even though two-thirds of the wagers have been on the over.
Oklahoma City at New York: The Knicks opened -3.5 and the line has dropped to 2.5 on pretty mixed betting, while the total has remained at its opening number of 209.5 despite close to three-quarters of the wagers landing on the over in this one.
Utah at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened -8 and the line dipped all the way to Bucks -5, but has come back up to 5.5 in a game that is seeing pretty mixed betting. The total has dropped from 236 to 231.
Orlando at Houston: The Rockets have moved from -4.5 to -5.5 after earlier reaching 6, even though the Magic are getting more than 60% of the early wagers in the game. The total has also dropped 6.5 points to 224.5.
Brooklyn at Memphis: Brooklyn opened -4.5 and the line is now down to 2 even though 65% of the wagers are coming in on the Nets. The total has dropped 4.5 points from its opening. Will take a shot on Memphis +2 in this one.
1/7/21
Dropped to 11-6, as the Kings came up a few points shy of getting the cover on Wednesday, as several of the reverse moves came through, but chose the wrong one. That’ going to happen, as the best NBA handicappers are typically in the 55-57% range. We’re almost at the point where we’ll start using stats and trends in the equation, particularly how teams fare after wins and losses. But line movement is also part of the equation, as that’s one thing that can’t be hidden.
Philadelphia at Brooklyn: Money coming in against the 76ers once again, as the line opened Philadelphia -3 and has moved to 1.5 despite the visitors getting a small majority of the wagers. The Nets will be without Durant, which makes the move a little strange. Games involving two teams have gone 18-24 in totals, while teams who allowed 130 or more points the previous day and won are 6-13 ATS, while totals in those games are 7-12 ATS. More than 80% of the wagers are coming in on the over here, so going to go against the public here and try the under.
Cleveland at Memphis: Memphis has moved from -3.5 to -5 with 60% of the wagers, so maybe a slightly bigger move than you’d expect to see. The Cavs are 0-2-1 in totals this season after a loss, failing to score 100 points in any of the three games. The total has dropped all the way from 214 to 210 with more than 70% of the wagers on the under.
Minnesota at Portland: The Blazers opened -10 and the line has held steady with pretty mixed betting, while the total has moved slightly from 233.5 to 233 with the majority of wagers on the over. Teams who were favored by 5 or more and lost their previous game have gone 4-9-1 in totals this season when they’re favored in their next game.
Dallas at Denver: The Nuggets have held at -2.5 despite getting 62% of the early wagers in the game, while the total has dropped from 226 to 224 with 70% of the wagers on the over. The Nuggets are 12-8-3 dating back to last season at home with a total of 220 or higher.
San Antonio at Los Angeles: The Lakers have moved from -7.5 to -6.5 with the Spurs getting 54% of the early wagers in the game. The Lakers won two games in San Antonio last week, so this could be a bit of a flat spot for them here, making it tough to call.
1/6/21
We moved to 11-5 on the season when the Grizzlies covered against the Lakers and today have quite a few games where we have reverse line moves.
Houston at Indiana: The Pacers have moved from 1.5 to 2.5 after getting 40% of the wagers in the game. Indiana is 5-2 on the season but both losses have come at home. The total has also dipped a half-point to 225.5 with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over.
Washington at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened -8 and the line is now down to 6.5 even though the 76ers have received more than 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has climbed 1.5 points to 232.5 with the betting being pretty much even on the total.
Boston at Miami: The Heat opened -3.5 and the line has dropped to 2.5, with Miami getting 54% of the early wagers in the game. The total has held at 218 with 58% of the early bets on the over.
Utah at New York: The Jazz have moved from -6 to -7 with jut 40% of the early bets in this one. The total has dropped two full points from 215 to 213 even though the betting has been pretty much split down the middle.
Oklahoma City at New Orleans: New Orleans opened -8 and the line has remained there despite the home team getting a little more than 60% of the early wagers in the game.
Chicago at Sacramento: The Kings opened -6 and the line has climbed to 7 even though Sacramento has just received 42% of the wagers. The Bulls won last night in Portland, giving them wins over the Mavs and Blazers in back-to-back games. Teams who won their last two games as underdogs have only covered 47.2% of the time when they’re installed as away underdogs and 46.2% of the time when they’re dogs of 5 or more points. The record falls to 62-77-2 (44.6%) if they’re playing with no rest, so will take a shot on the Kings in this one and lay the 7.
1/5/21
Outsmarted myself yesterday, taking the Raptors on one of those lines that looked a little too good to be true, but the Celtics came up with a solid effort. The loss drops us to 10-5 on the season and we’re faced with a small slate of games for Tuesday.
Utah at Brooklyn: The loss of Durant is making itself felt with the line in this one, as the Nets were going to be favored by 3 but now the Jazz are favored by 4.5, which might be a little bit of over-compensation in this one. But with the Nets already missing Dinwiddie, it’s hard to back them in this one.
Lakers at Memphis: The Lakers opened -9.5 and the line has dropped to LA -9 in this one after the Lakers received 65% of the early wagers in the game. The Lakers just won by 14 points on Sunday, so going to take a shot on the Grizzlies +9 in this one. The Lakers defeated San Antonio by 14 last week and then came back and defeated them by 6 in the rematch and we have a similar situation here. The Lakers return home after this one and might not be entirely focused on the game.
Minnesota at Denver: The Nuggets are favored by 11 after opening as 12-point favorites, while the total has moved from 228 to 225.5 even though we’re seeing more over wagers than under bets. Denver just won by 15 points, but do have the Mavs on deck.
Chicago at Portland: The Blazers opened -10 and the number dropped to 9 with the betting being pretty much split down the middle. The total has dropped a point to 232.5, although we’re seeing a few more over wagers than under bets. The Blazers were just thumped by Golden State.
1/4/21
We climbed to 10-4 for the season with the Warriors going over the total on Sunday and now have somewhat of an ugly slate of games ahead of us for Monday. We’ll stick to what we’ve been doing so far.
Charlotte at Philadelphia: This game hasn’t moved off the opening numbers of 76ers -9.5 and 219 on the total even though the Hornets are getting close to 60% of the early wagers and two-thirds of the totals bets are coming in on the over. The 76ers are just 1-5 in totals this season, going over the number in their last game. Teams who scored at least 125 points in their previous game are just 8-14-1 in totals this season after going 49.7% last season.
Boston at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 3 in this one, which seems a little bit out of whack considering Toronto is just 1-4 straight-up this season. The game opened Raptors -2.5 and has moved to 3 even with the Celtics getting 60% of the early wagers in the game. The Celtic did eliminate Toronto from the playoffs last season, so you know it’s a game Toronto will be ready for and going to take a shot on the Raptors -3 in this one.
Indiana at New Orleans: This one opened even and now the Pelicans are -1.5 after getting 70% of the early wagers in this one, which makes sense. The total is a different story, however, as the game opened 218 and is now 219 even though there have been a few more under wagers come in. There isn’t quite enough movement for a play, but it bears watching throughout the day to see if the number continues to move.
Sacramento at Golden State: The Kings are favored by 2.5 after opening -2 and getting close to two-thirds of the early wagers. The total opened 232 and has climbed to 232.5 with 65% of the wagers on the over. Part of that could be a bit of an over-reaction to Golden State’s 137 point outburst last night. The Kings are coming off an ugly 94-point effort against the Rockets.
1/3/21
We moved to 9-4 on Saturday and now have a bit of a small slate of games to look at on Sunday. We’re still a few games short of being able to use a statistical base, so we’ll look at the games, line movement and betting percentages.
Washington at Brooklyn: The Nets opened -8.5 and the line has held pretty steady even though Brooklyn is getting more than 70% of the early wagers. The total has dropped a little bit from 241 to 239.5 with close to three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the under.
Denver at Minnesota: The Nuggets opened -8 and the line is now 8.5 with Denver getting 55% of the early wagers in the game. The total on this one has taken a bit of a nosedive, having opened at 232 and is now 227 with close to three-quarters of the wagers in this one coming in on the under.
Clippers at Suns: The Clippers have moved from -1.5 to -3 after getting 62% of the early wagers in the game. The total opened at 221 and is now at 218 even though we’ve seen close to 60% of the wagers on the over. The Suns are 0-6 in totals this season, although there’s no real trends that appear when looking at other teams in the same situation.
Portland at Golden State: The Blazers have moved from -4 to -5 after getting more than 80% of the early wagers in the game, while the total has moved from 234.5 to 233.5 with 67% of the bets coming in on the under. The total on Friday was 237 and the teams combined for 221 points with some poor shooting. Portland was decent from 3-point range, but just 43.5% from the field overall, while the Warriors were below 40% from the field and were a dismal 7 for 35 in 3-pointers. Going to go against the grain here and take a shot on the over in this one.
1/3/21
We split our two system plays on Friday to fall to 8-4 ATS on the season and now we have a bit of a smaller schedule for Saturday.
Sacramento at Houston: The Rockets opened -4 and are now up to 4.5, while the total has climbed slightly from 233 to 233.5. The game betting is pretty much split down the middle, while two-thirds of the wagers are coming in on the over.
Charlotte at Philadelphia: The 76ers moved from 9.5 to 10, while the total has moved from 213.5 to 216. The Hornets are getting 58% of the side wagers.
Oklahoma City at Orlando: There’s been little movement in this one, which opened Magic -7.5 and 218.5 and the numbers are still right there. The Magic are coming off their first loss of the season.
New York at Indiana: The Pacers opened -9 and the line is still there despite Indiana getting 65% of the wagers. The total opened at 215 and the line hasn’t budged despite 75% of the wagers coming in on the over. Teams who scored fewer than 100 points last game are just 4-12-2 in totals this season, so will go ahead and take the under here, primarily due to the lack of line movement.
Toronto at New Orleans: The Raptors have moved from -1 to -1.5 with pretty good two-way action on the side, while the total opened at 216 and dropped to 214.5 before bouncing back to 215.5, with a slight majority of the wagers in the game landing on the over.
Cleveland at Atlanta: The Hawks opened -6.5 and the number has dropped to 6 with the Cavs getting a slight majority of the wagers in the game. The total has dropped quite a bit, opening at 234.5 and falling all the way to 229.5 with the betting being pretty well split down the middle on the total.
1/1/21
We climbed to 7-3 on the season with the over in the Washington game last night, so no complaints so far, where we’re using line movement and betting percentages as our primary tool, while also jumping in on an occasional situational play, as will be the case today.
Memphis at Charlotte: Charlotte opened -2 and the line has climbed to 4 with the home team getting three-quarters of the wagers in the game, while the total opened at 220 and has held pretty steady, with a few more places having the game at 219.5, and close to two-thirds of the wagers are coming in on the over, so somebody likes the under in this one.
Atlanta at Brooklyn: The Nets opened -6 and the line has moved to Brooklyn -6.5 even though the betting has been pretty even in the game. The total opened at 247 and is now down to 245 even though we’ve seen more than 60% of the wagers on the over. Teams who scored 130 points their previous game and lost are 16-23-2 as away underdogs and just 9-21-2 when getting five points or more, so will take a shot on the Nets in this one.
Chicago at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened -14 over the Bulls and the line has inched up to 14.5 after Milwaukee received 58% of the early wagers. Teams who won their previous game while allowing 130 or more points are just 45-73-3 in their next game and just 18-41-1 ATS when they’re underdogs. If the team in question is getting 8 or more points the record falls to 4-15 ATS, so going to have to take the Bucks in this one for our second and final play of the day.
Portland at Golden State: The Blazers opened -4 in this one and the line has dropped slightly to Portland -3.5 even though the Blazers are getting three-quarters of the bets in the game. The total has shot up in this one, moving from 230.5 to 235 with 75% of the wagers coming in on the over.
12/31/20
We moved to 6-3 on the season when we snuck in there under the total in San Antonio and now have a fairly small slate of games on the schedule.
Cleveland at Indiana: The Pacers are favored by 8 in this one and the total has moved from 217 to 219 on pretty even betting, so somebody likes the over a little bit. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season last time out and both were over teams last season after a loss.
Chicago at Washington: The Wizards opened -5 and the line has climbed to 6.5, while the total has moved from 234.5 to 237 with 45% of the wagers coming in on the over. Going to take a stab on the over in this one.
Philadelphia at Orlando: The 76ers opened -2 and the line is now up to 3 even though the Magic are getting the majority of the wagers in this one. Home underdogs who have won at least four games and not suffered a loss are just 1-5 ATS over the years, although the sample size is definitely on the small side.
Sacramento at Houston: A couple of big moves in this one, with the Rockets moving from -3 to 5.5 and the total climbing from 227 all the way to 231. John Wall is eligible to return for this one and a big win wouldn’t be a shock, but no point forcing the issue in this game.
New York at Toronto: The Raptors opened 9.5 and the line has stayed there with the betting being pretty much split down the middle. The Knicks are coming off a win against the Cavs and this line seems a little on the high side, but want no part of New York in this one. The Raptors are still winless on the season and it can’t be attributed to being out of their home country, but they’re a better team than they’ve shown so far.
12/30/20
We moved to 5-3 on the season in the NBA last night and have a smaller schedule for today. The wise guys have made a couple of stands on the games today.
Memphis at Boston: The Celtics opened -8.5 and the line has dropped down to 6.5 even though Boston is getting 63% of the wagers in the game. The total has also made a big dip, moving from 224 to 219 even though the betting on the total is pretty much split down the middle.
Milwaukee at Miami: Quick revenge game for the Heat, who were completely waxed last night by the Bucks and their outside shooting. The Bucks opened -6 and the line has dropped slightly to 5.5 with Milwaukee getting 60% of the wagers in the game. The total has also dropped from 227.5 to 226.5.
Atlanta at Brooklyn: The Nets have moved from -6.5 to -7 after getting more than 60% of the early wagers, while the total opened at 240 and is still there even though two-thirds of the wagers are coming in on the under. Games with totals this high were pretty even last season.
Charlotte at Dallas: The Mavs have moved from 8.5 to -8 after getting close to 70% of the wagers in the game, while the total has climbed from 223.5 to 224.5 with a few more wagers landing on the over.
Lakers at San Antonio: The Lakers opened -6.5 and the line has moved to Los Angeles -5 after the Lakers received 80% of the early wagers in the game. The total opened 229.5 and has stayed there despite 80% of the wagers coming in on the over, so going to take a shot on the under 229.5 in this one.
12/29/30
We took the back door hard last night, as Atlanta blew a 21-point fourth-quarter lead and only won by 8 against a short-handed Detroit team. The loss knocks us down to 4-3 on the season.
Boston at Indiana: The Celtics opened -1 and the line has stayed there, despite Boston getting close to 75% of the early wagers in the game. The Pacers won 108-107 two nights ago, so this is a tough one to get a read on.
Golden State at Detroit: Another game where the Warriors are favored on the road, although this time the line has been bet up to 4.5. The Pistons played last night and Golden State was able to rest, but no interest in taking the Warriors as a road favorite.
New York at Cleveland: Strange line movement here, as the Cavaliers opened -4.5 and the line is down to 3.5 even though the Cavs have received more than 80% of the early wagers. The Knicks could be due for a bit of a letdown after blowing out Milwaukee, while the Cavs thumped Philadelphia last time out. I might be falling for a trap, but going to go ahead and take a shot on the Knicks +3.5 against an undefeated Cleveland squad.
Milwaukee at Miami: The Bucks opened -5 and have been bet up to 5.5 in this one and it’s hard to take Milwaukee as such a large road favorite. The only team Milwaukee has beaten this year is Golden State. The Bucks have been good about rebounding from poor efforts and this is a huge revenge spot for Milwaukee. Still, the Heat will be looking to show the Eastern Conference Finals were no fluke last year, so a good game to watch, but probably not to wager on.
12/28/20
Some strange line movement for Monday in the NBA, with bettors taking a couple of stands. We still lack enough games to have any sort of statistical foundation, so we’ll stick to what we’ve been doing so far this season and follow line movement, trends and situational plays.
Memphis at Brooklyn: The Nets opened -7 and the line is down to 6.5 even though the home team is getting roughly two-thirds of the early wagers in the game. The Nets are coming off a loss at the hands of the Hornets on Sunday, while the Grizzlies have dropped their first two games. Memphis was a decent under team after a loss a year ago.
Detroit at Atlanta: The Hawks are favored by 10 and the total has dropped to 223 after opening at 226.5 and seeing close to 60% of the wagers come in on the over. The Hawks were expected to be a solid over team this season, but their first two games have landed under the number. The Pistons have lost both games this season. Blake Griffin will miss the game for the Pistons, which probably has a bit to do with both moves. Derrick Rose will also miss the game, so will take a shot on the Hawks -10 in this one.
Utah at Oklahoma City: The Jazz have moved from 5 to 8.5, while the total has dropped down to 218 after opening at 221. The Thunder have only played one game so far this season, so not really sure what to expect out of them and will just stay clear of this one.
Houston at Denver: The Nuggets opened -9 and the line is down to 6.5, as the Rockets are still short-handed, but will have Harden in the line-up once again. He had a solid game against Portland, but the Blazers are known to be a little bit lax on defense at times.
Portland at LA Lakers: The Lakers opened as 4.5-point favorites in this one and the line is down to 4 with LA getting more than 80% of the wagers in the game. The Lakers could be without James and Anthony Davis both, and there’s really no need to get involved until you know more about the status of LA’s big two, so will just skip this game for now.
12/27/20
A couple of decent games on today’s NBA slate, along with a couple of stinkers. As usual, we’ll look at a few of the games and try to come up with something until we have a few more games to fall upon for some sort of statistical base. We’re 2-2 in the early going, alternating wins and losses.
Dallas at LA Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 5 in this one, which is now on the boards everywhere after being off at a few places earlier this morning. The Mavs have started off in ugly form, while the Clippers have been impressive so far. Will go ahead and take a shot on the Mavs +5 in this one.
Orlando at Washington: We’ve seen a switch in the favorite in this one, as the Wizards opened -1.5 and now the Magic are favored by 1 after getting close to 75% of the wagers in the game. The total has shot up four points to 229.5 after opening 225.5.
Philadelphia at Cleveland: The 76ers opened 5.5 and 218.5 and Philadelphia is now favored by 7 and the total has dropped to 217 despite 60% of the wagers on the over. The 76ers have played good defense in their first two games, while the Cavs have scored 120 points in each of their first two games, but needed a pair of overtimes last game to get there. Both teams were under teams after victories last season, so will take a shot on the under in this one.
Golden State at Chicago: The Warriors are favored by 3.5 in this one after opening -2 and Golden State is just the fourth team in the past 25 years to be favored on the road after back-to-back losses of 25 points or more. No interest in touching this game.
Phoenix at Sacramento: A rematch of our win last night and the Suns are favored by 3 after opening as 3.5-point favorites. Both teams were dismal from 3-point range, which is a large reason why scoring was down. The Suns were 11 for 44 and the Kings were 5 for 23. Phoenix missed its first 16 3-pointers and can’t see that happening again. The total has climbed to 226.5 after opening at 224.5. Wanted to take the over here, but not really interested in having three plays for the day when there’s only a couple of games to fall on for stats.
12/26/20
Expected a little more from the Nuggets last night, as we fall to 1-2 in the NBA to start the season. Still taking it easy until we get some sort of statistical base to fall on, as we still have just a few games in the books. Will look at a few where we’ve seen some line movement or other interesting factors.
Atlanta at Memphis: The Hawks opened -1 in this one and now the Grizzlies are favored by 1.5 and the total has climbed to 238, making this just the fourth game we’ve ever seen in the first month of play with a total so high. Would like to take the over, but a strong situational system on the under here, so will just stay away.
Cleveland at Detroit: Big drop on the total here, which has dipped all the way to 213 after first opening at 220. The Pistons have moved from -3 to -2 on pretty mixed betting.
Oklahoma City at Charlotte: Charlotte opened -3 and the line has held steady despite the home team seeing 63% of the wagers in the game. This is the first game of the season for Oklahoma City after their previous game was postponed.
Toronto at San Antonio: The Raptors opened -2 and the line has still stayed there with the road team getting 56% of the wagers. The Raptors are probably just as familiar with the site of today’s game as they are with Amalie Arena, so not sure if playing on the road is going to be a real detriment to them or not in this spot. The total has climbed a half-point up to 226 despite there being more wagers on the under than on the over.
Phoenix at Sacramento: The Suns opened as 4.5-point favorites in this one and the line has dropped to 3.5, with Phoenix getting nearly three-quarters of the wagers in the game. The Kings showed some heart, winning at Denver opening day, while the Suns took care of Dallas on opening day, as both teams did catch their foes at a good time, with the Mavs scheduled to face the Lakers in Game 2 and the Nuggets doing battle with the Clippers in Game 2. Not so sure the Suns should be such large favorites in this one and will take a shot on the home dog in this one.
Houston at Portland: The Blazers opened -9 over the Rockets, who will be without John Wall, Eric Gordon, DeMarcus Cousins and most likely one or two more. Surprisingly the line has dropped down to 7.5 and Houston is getting the majority of the wagers so far. The total has climbed to 226.
12/25/20
The usual NBA all-day slate of games on Christmas Day, although this time we don’t really have a whole lot in the way of stats to fall on, so as I’ve mentioned before, we’ll do the best we can looking at other factors until there’s a few more games to build upon.
New Orleans at Miami: This one opened Miami -5 and the line has dropped to 3.5 even though the betting on the game has been pretty even. It appears to be a good spot for the Heat, who are coming off a loss as a road favorite, while New Orleans is coming off a win as a road dog, although that situation has only gone 58-55-1 over the years, but was 4-1 ATS last season. Really wanted to take the Heat here, but going to stay away, with Miami having Milwaukee up next.
Golden State at Milwaukee: The Bucks have moved from 7.5 to -10 and it’s hard to do anything in this one but take the Bucks. Milwaukee was 7-4 ATS after a loss last season up until the shutdown and 5-1 when favored by 10 or more after a loss. The Warriors were 6-4 ATS as double-digit dogs coming off a double-digit loss, including a 107-98 loss at the hands of Milwaukee in a covering effort. As mentioned above, the Bucks have the Heat up next, so not entirely sure how motivated they’ll be here, although due to the talent difference it may not matter.
Brooklyn at Boston: The Nets are favored by 3 in this one and it’s a tough spot for the Celtics, who are off the win over the Bucks, although they should be up for the Nets. Brooklyn looked tough in its opening game, but it’s only one game and want to see a little more.
Dallas at Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 6 over the Mavs and both teams are coming off losses. Dallas fell to the Suns and the Lakers dropped their game to the Clippers. The Mavs have the Clippers up next, where they’ll be looking for some redemption, and that will keep me off of them in this one.
LA Clippers at Denver: The Clippers are favored by 2.5 over the Nuggets and going to take Denver plus the points in this one. Denver was most likely looking ahead to this one when they fell to the Kings and the Clippers are coming off their win against the Lakers and know they have the Mavs on tap.
12/23/20
Huge slate of NBA games for Wednesday and the toughest part of being a statistical handicapper is the early season when there’s no data to really fall back upon. So we’ll primarily track line moves and look for obvious situational spots until we get some numbers to fall back on.
We’ll look at some of the games where we’ve seen decent movement and see what we can come up with.
Charlotte at Cleveland: The Cavs opened as a 1-point favorite but the line has flopped and now Charlotte has received more than 80% of the wagers to become 2.5-point favorites. The Cavs are without Kevin Love in the early going.
Washington at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened as 8-point favorites and the line has stayed there, while the total has help at 229 despite two-thirds of the wagers being on the over and also on the 76ers. Would have expected slight moves in both the spread and the total.
Milwaukee at Boston: The Bucks have moved from 2.5 to 4.-point favorites and are getting close to 70% of the wagers in the game. This one is probably a little bigger for the Celtics, but not sure they have the horses to keep up with the Bucks.
New Orleans at Toronto: This one is being played in Tampa, which is the temporary home for the Raptors. Toronto opened -5 and the line has dropped to 4 with the road team getting the majority of wagers here. The total has moved to 228.5 from 230 with the betting pretty much split down the middle. Going to take a shot on the under in this one, as it’s an unfamiliar court for both teams and it could be a bit of an adjustment shooting.
Atlanta at Chicago: The total in this one is the big story, as the game has moved from 227 to 232 with 70% of the wagers on the over. Hard to argue the line move, as Atlanta could be a solid offense/no defense type of team this season, but a lot of value gone on the over.
Oklahoma City at Houston: The Rockets have moved to -8 and not so sure how Houston will fare as a larger favorite this season until the Harden saga is straightened out.
Sacramento at Denver: The Nuggets opened -8 and the line is still there at most places with Denver getting roughly 60% of the wagers in the game. Would like to take Denver here, but with a showdown against the Clippers up on Christmas, not really interested in laying the points.
12/22/20
We start a brand-new NBA season today and I have to say we’re entering this year behind the 8-ball a little more than usual this year. Typically, we can rely on last year’s ending statistics a little bit to get a read on teams, although that’s not really the case this season. We saw plenty of teams not worry about playing defense in the bubble, which has distorted team scoring averages a bit.
Since I rely on stats so much for the NBA, we’ll tread lightly at the beginning, looking for trends, situational plays and line movement as the key to wagers, at least until we have a bit of a statistical foundation.
There’s been the typical player movement in the short offseason, and that will have an impact on the lines we see in the beginning and you really can’t go off preseason scores, as plenty of players are just going through the motions, with the regular season just around the corner.
Golden State at Brooklyn Nets: The Nets opened as 5.5-point favorites and the line has climbed all the way to 7.5, with Brooklyn getting 57% of the wagers, so not entirely sure the move should be as large as it is. The total has climbed all the way from 228 to 232 with two-thirds of the wagers on the over. The big storyline here is Kevin Durant going up against his former team, although he said it’s not really that big of a deal. The Warriors are going to be without Klay Thompson for the season and Draymond Green is going to miss this one with a foot injury, leaving little help for Steph Curry. James Wiseman will be a good one, but not so sure he’ll come out of the gate strong, as big men usually take a little while longer to get going.
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers: Another good one here, as the defending champions are favored by 3 and the total has dropped down to 220 on pretty mixed betting. The Lakers are getting 70% of the wagers in the game, which is why the game has moved from 2.5 to 3. The Clippers were just 4-4 as an away dog last year, while going 2-6 in totals in those games. With all four matchups between the two squads landing under the number, will take a shot on the under in this one.
