The Detroit Pistons (19-40) will try to put an end to their six-game losing streak when they square off with the Denver Nuggets (39-18) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020, and will air on Fox Sports – Detroit.
Denver opened as a 12-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 216 points at the local Denver Colorado sportsbooks.
Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
In the Pistons’ last matchup, they were defeated by the Portland Trail Blazers, 107-104, but they were able to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (211) were under the projected point total of 220. Portland’s 0.565 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Detroit, who had a mark of 0.494. The Trail Blazers’ mark was above their season average of 0.524. Christian Wood was Detroit’s leading scorer with 26 points on 9-for-15 shooting.
The Nuggets defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last outing, 128-116, but were not able to cover as 16-point favorites. The game’s total points (244) came in well over the projected point total of 229. Denver’s 0.650 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Minnesota, who had a mark of 0.522. The Nuggets’ mark was above their season average of 0.526. With 24 points, seven rebounds and six assists, Denver’s Nikola Jokic put together a good game.
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. Jokic put up 39 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds in the first matchup, in which the Nuggets lost 128-123, unable to cover as 2-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 251 points, which was 39.5 points above the projected point total of 211.5 points. Detroit’s free throw rate was their biggest strength over Denver. The Pistons had a rate of 0.191, while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.177.
Detroit heads into the contest with records of 19-40 straight up (SU) and 22-35-2 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers have a tendency to set the total low when the Pistons are playing, as 35 of their 59 contests have ended over the total.
Denver is 39-18 SU, but they are just 25-26-6 ATS. In opposition of Detroit, just over half of Nuggets games have finished under the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Wood (20 points,10.8 rebounds) has been stellar for the Pistons while Jamal Murray (29 points,5.8 assists) has contributed greatly to the Nuggets.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams battle. Denver currently ranks 28th in possessions per game (100.4) and Detroit is 25th (100.8).
Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets Pick
Free Prediction: ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Over
Detroit is 11-15-2 ATS on the road with 14 overs and 14 unders.
At home, Denver is 12-14-3 ATS with 16 unders and 13 overs.
In games where they allow below 100 points, Denver is 13-1 and Detroit is 4-3.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Pistons are 18-28 and the Nuggets are 36-13.
Denver ranks sixth in points in the paint per game (49.5) while Detroit ranks 26th in points allowed in the paint per game (51.7).
The Nuggets average 26.4 assists per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Pistons rank 19th in assists allowed per game (24.7).
Denver ranks 10th in steals per game (8.1) while Detroit ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.0).
The Nuggets average 14.2 second chance points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The Pistons rank 18th in second chance points allowed per game (13.3).
Detroit ranks second in three pointers allowed per game (29.9) while Denver ranks 11th (32.9).
The Nuggets rank 18th in rebounds per game (44.6) while the Pistons rank 27th (42.5).
Denver ranks 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.8) while Detroit ranks 21st in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.5).
The Nuggets average 4.7 blocks per game, which ranks 18th in the league. The Pistons rank 23rd in blocks allowed per game (5.6).
In its last five contests, Detroit is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Denver is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Pistons’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 8.2, up from 2.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 117.8 points per game (7.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.4 points per game (8.5 above their season average).