The Denver Nuggets (35-16) head to Utah to play the Jazz (32-17) in what should be a low-scoring game. The game is scheduled to start at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 5, 2020.
Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz ATS Prediction
The Nuggets come in on a high note after blowing out the Portland Trail Blazers in their last contest, 127-99, as 2-point underdogs. The game’s total points (226) were over the projected point total of 211.5. The Nuggets, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.2, had a superb mark of 30.8 and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.606 (above their season average of 0.520). Denver rallied around Nikola Jokic, who was the game’s leading scorer with 29 points on 11-for-17 shooting.
The last time the Jazz played, they were beaten by the Portland Trail Blazers, 124-107, despite being 8-point favorites. The total points for the game (231) finished just over the projected point total of 230. Portland’s 0.163 free throw rate was their largest strength over Utah, who had a mark of 0.096. The Trail Blazers’ mark was below their season average of 0.195, while the Jazz’s was below their season average of 0.210. Donovan Mitchell had a solid game for Utah, leading the team in scoring with 25 points on 11-for-21 shooting.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams face off. Utah currently ranks 27th in possessions per game (100.5) and Denver is 26th (100.6). Additionally, the Nuggets are among the NBA’s best on the offensive backboards, ranking first in offensive rebounding percentage (25.3 percent). The Jazz, however, rank fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.2 percent).
Denver is 35-16 straight up (SU), but they are just 21-23-6 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 58.0 percent of their games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Utah is 32-17 SU and 24-23-2 ATS. Unlike Denver, Jazz games have a slight tendency to go over the O/U total (53.1 percent).
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, the Jazz lost 106-100, unable to cover as 2.5-point favorites. Jordan Clarkson led both teams with 37 points. The game finished with a total of 206 points, which was 5.5 points below the projected point total of 211.5 points. The Nuggets had a much better turnover percentage (8.7 vs. 15.8) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (21.1 vs. 12.5).
Nuggets vs. Jazz Pick
Free Prediction: ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
Denver is 11-11-3 ATS on the road with 13 unders and 12 overs.
Utah is 12-9-1 ATS at home with 12 overs and 10 unders.
In games where they allow under 100 points, Denver and Utah are both 12-1.
When reaching 100 points, the Nuggets are 33-11 and the Jazz are 31-12.
Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (26.4) while Utah ranks 26th (22.1).
The Nuggets rank fifth in second chance points per game (14.6) while the Jazz rank 25th (12.0).
Denver ranks 10th in steals per game (8.1) while Utah ranks 29th (5.9).
The Nuggets rank 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.7) while the Jazz rank 27th (14.4).
Denver ranks 18th in blocks per game (4.7) while Utah ranks 26th (4.1).
The Jazz rank third in three pointers allowed per game (30.9) while the Nuggets rank 10th (32.9).
Utah averages 47.6 points in the paint per game, which ranks 17th in the league. Denver ranks 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (49.5).
The Nuggets rank 23rd in fast break points per game (11.5) while the Jazz rank 26th (10.5).
Utah ranks fourth in rebounds allowed per game (43.0) while Denver ranks sixth (43.3).
In its last five outings, Denver is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Utah is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.6, up from 3.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 111.2 points per game (0.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 118.0 points per game (11.0 above their season average).