It will be a battle between Northwest Division opponents when the Oklahoma City Thunder (33-22) welcome the Denver Nuggets (38-17) to Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, February 21, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Oklahoma City is a 1-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 215 points on the William Hill New Jersey Sports Betting App.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Prediction
The Nuggets failed to cover as 3-point underdogs in their 120-116 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in their last game. The combined points for the game (236) came in well over the projected point total of 220.5. Los Angeles won the rebounding battle. The Lakers had more offensive rebounds (10 vs. three) and total rebounds (49 vs. 42). Jamal Murray was Denver’s leading scorer with 32 points on 13-for-25 shooting.
In the Thunder’s last game, they beat the New Orleans Pelicans, 123-118, despite being 3.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (241) finished over the O/U total of 233.5. Oklahoma City’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over New Orleans. The Thunder had a rate of 6.4 (better than their season average of 11.9), while the Pelicans posted a mark of 14.8. With 14 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds, Chris Paul put together a solid performance for Oklahoma City.
This is the second game of the season between these two squads. Jokic had 28 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists in the first game, in which the Nuggets defeated the Thunder 110-102, covering as 5.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 212 points, which was 8 points above the projected point total of 204 points. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.0 vs. 17.1) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.547 vs. 0.506).
Denver comes into the game with records of 38-17 straight up (SU) and 25-24-6 against the spread (ATS). Of the Nuggets’ 55 games, 30 have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 33-22 SU and 35-19-1 ATS. Much like Denver, games including the Thunder have a slight tendency to go under the projected point total (52.7 percent).
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Oklahoma City ranks 24th in possessions per game (100.8) and Denver is 28th (100.3). Moreover, the Nuggets, who rank 24th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.181), could struggle to get to the line against the Thunder, who rank second in opponents’ FTA rate (0.165).
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Over
Denver is 13-11-3 ATS on the road with 14 unders and 13 overs.
Oklahoma City is 14-14-1 ATS at home with 15 overs and 14 unders.
In games where they allow below 100 points, Denver is 13-1 and Oklahoma City is 7-3.
The Nuggets are 35-12 when they score over 100 points, while the Thunder are 32-14.
Denver ranks fifth in second chance points per game (14.3) while Oklahoma City ranks last (10.7).
The Nuggets rank third in assists per game (26.5) while the Thunder rank 27th (22.0).
Denver ranks 10th in points in the paint per game (48.9) while Oklahoma City ranks 18th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.9).
The Thunder rank fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Nuggets rank 11th (4.8).
Denver ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (11.5) while Oklahoma City ranks 29th (9.3).
The Thunder rank second in steals allowed per game (6.8) while the Nuggets rank eighth (6.9).
Denver ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.4) while Oklahoma City ranks eighth (15.6).
The Nuggets rank 26th in three pointers attempted per game (30.6) while the Thunder rank 27th (29.7).
Over its last five outings, Denver is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Oklahoma City is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.6, up from 3.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 111.4 points per game (0.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (1.6 above their season average).