The New Orleans Pelicans (17-28) clash with the Denver Nuggets (30-14) at the Smoothie King Center. The game can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 24, 2020.
New Orleans opened as a 3-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 231 points at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Prediction
The Nuggets are hoping for a better outcome after not being able to cover as 10-point underdogs in their 121-105 loss to the Houston Rockets in their last contest. The combined points for the game (226) finished just under the O/U total of 226.5. Houston was successful at getting to and converting from the charity stripe. The Rockets made 24 of their 28 free throws (85.7 percent), while the Nuggets were 11-15 (73.3 percent). With 19 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists, Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver with his seventh triple-double of the year.
In the Pelicans’ previous matchup, they fell to the San Antonio Spurs, 121-117, despite being 3.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (238) came in just over the projected point total of 235.5. San Antonio’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over New Orleans. The Spurs posted a mark of 9.9 (stronger than their season average of 11.2), while the Pelicans had a rate of 12.5. With 14 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds, Lonzo Ball put together a solid game for New Orleans.
The Pelicans have won both matchups against the Nuggets this season, including a 12-point victory in their last matchup. New Orleans covered as a 9-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 212 points, which was just 4 points below the projected point total of 216 points. New Orleans had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (34.1 vs. 25.5). Denver, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (10.7 vs. 15.9). Brandon Ingram was the game’s leading scorer with 31 points.
Denver is 30-14 straight up (SU), but they are just 17-21-6 against the spread (ATS). Nuggets games have typically gone under the total (59.1 percent).
Meanwhile, New Orleans is 17-28 SU and 21-21-3 ATS. Contrary to Denver, games including the Pelicans have a tendency to go over the projected point total (57.8 percent).
It will be a showdown of contrasting styles as the up-tempo Pelicans will look to push the more half-court-oriented Nuggets. The Pelicans currently rank third in possessions per game while the Nuggets are 28th.
Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Pelicans Odds Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
Denver is 9-9-3 ATS on the road with 11 unders and 10 overs.
New Orleans is 11-11 ATS at home with 13 overs and 9 unders.
In games where they allow under 100 points, New Orleans is 3-0 and Denver is 11-1.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Nuggets are 28-10 and the Pelicans are 17-25.
New Orleans ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (38.6) while Denver ranks 28th (29.8).
The Nuggets rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while the Pelicans rank 27th (18.7).
Denver averages 50.3 points in the paint per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 28th in points allowed in the paint per game (52.7).
The Pelicans rank fifth in fast break points per game (16.4) while the Nuggets rank 23rd (11.7).
Denver averages 13.9 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the league. New Orleans ranks 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
The Nuggets average 8.0 steals per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 24th in steals allowed per game (8.2).
Denver averages 26.2 assists per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 17th in assists allowed per game (24.4).
In its last five games, Denver is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Nuggets have scored an equal number of points as their opponents. On the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 3.3 points.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 125.6 points per game (11.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 122.4 points per game (4.7 above their season average).