The Milwaukee Bucks (41-6) will attempt to extend their nine-game winning streak against the Denver Nuggets (33-15) at Fiserv Forum. The game will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, January 31, 2020.
Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction
The Nuggets will be looking for a similar outcome after covering the 1-point spread against the Utah Jazz in their last contest, 106-100. The game’s combined points (206) were well under the O/U total of 224. The Nuggets forced 16 turnovers and held the Jazz to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.5 (below their season average of 21.1). Denver received a boost from Nikola Jokic, who was the team’s high scorer with 28 points on 11-for-19 shooting.
In the Bucks’ last game, they easily got past the Washington Wizards, 151-131, easily covering as 11.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (282) finished well over the O/U total of 241. The Bucks had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 31.4 (above their season average of 20.8) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.661 (above their season average of 0.558). Khris Middleton was the top scorer from either team with 51 points on 16-for-26 shooting from the field.
After the Bucks won both matchups against the Nuggets last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last contest, Milwaukee won 104-98. The Bucks had a better free throw rate (0.148 vs. 0.064) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (30.2 vs. 25.5).
Denver has a respectable 33-15 straight up (SU) record, but they have difficulty covering the spread (19-22-6 against the spread (ATS)). Nuggets games tend to go under the projected point total (59.6 percent).
Meanwhile, Milwaukee owns records of 41-6 SU and 26-21 ATS. Bucks games also have finished under the O/U total 51.1 percent of the time.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Jokic (22 points,12.4 rebounds,7.6 assists,1.6 steals) has been stellar for the Nuggets while Middleton (20 points,5.6 rebounds,4.2 assists,1.2 steals) has made solid contributions to the Bucks.
This game should be a battle of opposite styles. Milwaukee has preferred a fast-breaking style of play (third in possessions per game), while Denver has been slower-paced (28th in possessions per game). Furthermore, the Nuggets rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (25.3 percent), while the Bucks rank first in defensive rebounding percentage (81.2 percent).
Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
On the road, Denver is 10-10-3 ATS with 13 unders and 10 overs.
At home, Milwaukee is 13-11 ATS with 12 overs and 12 unders.
Milwaukee is 11-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Denver is 11-1.
The Bucks are 41-6 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 31-10.
Milwaukee ranks first in fast break points per game (18.8) while Denver ranks 24th (11.7).
The Bucks rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (38.4) while the Nuggets rank 26th (30.3).
Milwaukee ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (38.3) while Denver ranks 21st (49.2).
The Bucks rank third in blocks per game (6.3) while the Nuggets rank 21st (4.5).
Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (51.6) while Denver ranks 19th (44.8).
The Bucks average 26.1 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 19th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
Denver ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while Milwaukee ranks eighth (15.7).
The Bucks lead the league with 11.2 second chance points allowed per game while the Nuggets are fifth with 12.2 second chance points allowed per game.
Denver averages 8.2 steals per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Milwaukee ranks 11th in steals allowed per game (7.2).
Over its last five contests, Denver is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Milwaukee is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 0.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 3.3 points.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 124.6 points per game (4.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.4 points per game (3.2 above their season average).