The Dallas Mavericks (23-13) meet the Denver Nuggets (25-11) at the American Airlines Center. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
The Nuggets come in on a high note after covering the 7-point spread against the Atlanta Hawks in their last outing, 123-115. The combined points for the game (238) finished over the O/U total of 224.5. Denver’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Atlanta. The Nuggets had a rate of 3.7 (better than their season average of 11.7), while the Hawks posted a mark of 9.9. With 47 points on 16-for-25 shooting, Nikola Jokic was the game’s leading scorer.
The last time the Mavericks took the floor, they defeated the Chicago Bulls, 118-110, covering as 7.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (228) finished over the O/U total of 217.5. Dallas’ 0.167 free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Chicago, who had a rate of 0.092. The Mavericks’ mark was below their season average of 0.208, while the Bulls’ was below their season average of 0.186. With 38 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists, Luka Doncic led the way for Dallas with his 10th triple-double of the year.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Nuggets lost 109-106, unable to cover as 6-point favorites. Jokic notched a triple-double with 10 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. The game finished with a total of 215 points, which was just 1 points below the projected point total of 216 points. The Mavericks had a better free throw rate (0.167 vs. 0.099) and had a better turnover percentage (7.8 vs. 9.4).
Denver has a solid 25-11 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 13-18-5 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Nuggets tend to go under the O/U total (55.6 percent).
Meanwhile, Dallas is 23-13 SU and 21-15 ATS. Unlike Denver, games featuring the Mavericks tend to go over the O/U total (63.9 percent).
Dallas figures to have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball. The Mavericks currently rank first in offensive efficiency, while Denver ranks 13th in defensive efficiency.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Pick
Pick:Â ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
On the road, Denver is 7-8-2 ATS with 9 overs and 8 unders.
At home, Dallas is 8-11 ATS with 12 overs and 7 unders.
Dallas is 5-0 when they allow under 100 points, while Denver is 10-1.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Nuggets are 23-7 and the Mavericks are 23-11.
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.6) while Denver ranks 26th (29.9).
The Nuggets rank eighth in fast break points allowed per game (12.2) while the Mavericks rank last (16.4).
Denver ranks 12th in steals per game (7.8) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.5).
The Mavericks rank fourth in rebounds per game (47.7) while the Nuggets rank 19th (44.7).
Dallas ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while Denver ranks 11th (4.7).
The Nuggets average 49.9 points in the paint per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 16th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.4).
Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (26.3) while Dallas ranks 13th (24.5).
The Nuggets average 14.0 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 15th in second chance points allowed per game (13.0).
Denver ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.3) while Dallas ranks sixth (15.1).
In its last five outings, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 5 overs.
Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 3.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 3.9 points.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 111.4 points per game (5.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 111.6 points per game (2.3 above their season average).
